https://theathletic.com/5375788/2024/04/11/nfl-draft-2024-top-quarterbacks/
One general manager’s text summarized his annoyance about pre-draft “noise.”
“Everything now is speculation,” he responded amid a series of exchanges. “The draft is the IPO, and the stock price of the pick will fluctuate with each practice, game and season. Time always tells the tale.”
Assessments from outside evaluators and information shared by reporters following the college football season shape the initial draft narratives. Anyone can watch game tapes. However, interviews with players or individuals who help teams fill in bios and backstories are one crucial piece of the prospect puzzle that is inaccessible to the public.
“I judged on film alone,” one former head coach said upon sharing his QB thoughts. “Not knowing the kid makes this tougher.”
As narrative shifts occur, online debates often become inflamed. Talking heads and opinionated fans become swayed or more entrenched. One example is the banter about Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s apparent rise from a mid-to-late first-round pick to joining the top-five conversation with LSU’s Jayden Daniels and North Carolina’s Drake Maye.
Led by general manager Adam Peters and coach Dan Quinn, the Washington Commanders have remained mum about their plans for the second overall pick. That makes life tricky for the mock draft community, national news breakers, sanity-seeking reporters and, more importantly, teams picking after Washington. The QB-needy New England Patriots have the third selection.
“I don’t think anyone in here really knows exactly what Washington is going to do,” Patriots coach Jerod Mayo said at last month’s league meetings.
Seventeen sources shared their takes on the top passing prospects in this year’s draft. This combined ranking used a 5-3-2-1 scoring system, with first-place votes in parentheses. Our group:
Two active general managers
Three personnel executives
Three scouts
One assistant/QBs coach
Three former general managers
One ex-head coach
Four former players-turned-analysts, including two ex-quarterbacks
Other sources discussed the prospects but declined a rank order. The first-round answer key will be revealed when the draft commences April 25. The conjecture over which teams fared best will have only just begun.
1. Caleb Williams, USC — 78 points (14 first-place votes)
Outside of Williams going the John Elway or Eli Manning route, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner is headed to Chicago as the No. 1 selection. No wonder all draft speculation starts with the Commanders at No. 2.
Trait comparisons to Kansas City Chiefs three-time Super Bowl champion Patrick Mahomes were sprinkled throughout discussions, though sources shied away from tagging Williams as the next Mahomes. Several sources mentioned Williams’ high floor as the highlight rather than the potential upside. Three panelists preferred Daniels, with one — fearing possible disruption from Williams’ famously involved camp — slotting the USC quarterback third. Otherwise, the panel has high hopes for one of the best QB prospects in years.
Scout 1: I understand the leadership concerns, but Williams has the most talent. He’s easily No. 1.
Former NFL QB and current NBC Sports analyst Chris Simms: (Williams) can throw every ball in the book. … He’s the best scrambler in the draft and the best off-platform. He’s got the best feel in the pocket. And then when there is nothing there, there is nobody better.
2. Jayden Daniels, LSU — 50 (3)
Only Williams and Daniels, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, received first-place votes. Daniels’ experience (53 starts with Arizona State and LSU), development as a passer (40 touchdown passes in 2023, nine fewer than his previous four seasons combined) and dual-threat playmaking (1,134 rushing yards last season) had several sources speaking in glowing terms.
His thin frame — 6-foot-4, 210 pounds — and penchant for playing in traffic led to wicked collisions and long-term frets with panelists. However, his improvement and apparent fit with offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s up-tempo offense have made him a mock draft staple at No. 2. Washington will host Daniels for a visit starting Monday, a league source told The Athletic.
Assistant coach: Daniels is so good. … He is so much better than Maye and McCarthy. It’s not even close. Daniels can play NFL football right now.
Scout 2: Jayden probably made more progress than any quarterback coming out in the last five or six years. He can anticipate, make all the throws and is an explosive athlete. (As a scrambler), he’s not Lamar Jackson or Michael Vick. His ability to process (pre-snap) has improved as a passer, which is hard to do in one year. We know he started working with (virtual reality) this season. Got those VR reps, and that’s when he took off.
Scout 1: High upside but has a ton of room (to grow). It will take a couple of years, and the offense has to be tailored (to him). It’s going to be some wow but some ugly (plays). A lot like Justin Fields.
Former head coach: Jayden is QB2. He can start immediately, but he better learn to protect himself or he’ll be in the cold tub often.
Personnel executive 1: He could end up being the best one. Good athlete and arm talent. I think he sees it and can process. Big drop-off after him and Williams.
3. Drake Maye, North Carolina — 24
If these six passers were ranked on the level of polarization, Maye would be the runaway leader. Following the 2022 season, some circles saw him as Williams’ rival for QB1 draft status due to his prototype 6-foot-4, 223-pound size, deep passing strength, mobility and competitiveness. As a first-time starter, Maye was named ACC Player of the Year.
Following several offseason personnel changes at UNC, including losing offensive coordinator Phil Longo to Wisconsin, Maye’s performance and passing statistics dipped in 2023, especially against higher-end foes. The variance among these sources on Maye ranges from QB2 (Scout 1: “I think he will be the best of the group”) to being outside the top four. The highlight reels are strong, but so is the discussion of regression in decision-making, footwork and fundamentals amid a choppy final college season.
“I know a lot of people look at the ceiling, but you’ve also got to see how low the floor is,” Mayo said last month. “A guy like Drake Maye has a lot of room to grow. He’s a young guy. He hasn’t played football nearly as much (26 starts) as these other guys.”
The panel cited Maye as the quarterback in most need of a redshirt NFL season. That’s logical for a player who turns 22 in August. However, the assessment also shows a lack of clarity about the future.
Current GM: People are going to pick Maye apart. If he ends up being the best of the group, it won’t shock me. He is made of the right stuff.
Simms: If you watch 20 throws, you’ll see good throws. Then … the ball is all over the place. The decision-making can be all over the place, and the pocket presence is all over the place, let alone some mechanical flaws in how he throws the football. It (was) confirmed to me in his pro day, (which) was underwhelming. … He’s got all the size. He’s pretty athletic when he runs. I always hear (Maye is) like Justin Herbert coming out or Josh Allen, and my brain wants to explode.
Scout 1: Maye reminds me a lot of Herbert.
Assistant coach: Maye is Herbert light. Take everything Herbert does and make it less. They’ll be compared (because of the prototype size), but there’s no comparison. I like Maye, but when I see the amount of work it will take to have him reach his potential, we’ll be fired first.
Personnel executive 1: He scares the hell out of me. Longer thrower with a big arm but not quick release. Nothing feels like it happens in rhythm, and accuracy is average. Needs a year on the bench.
Former GM: He has accuracy you can’t teach and is only scratching the surface with his upside while he physically matures. Wait for years two and three. If he progresses, he can end up like Troy Aikman.
4. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan — 23
Let’s start with the elephant in the room.
“I think the J.J. hype is real,” texted another personnel executive, who has McCarthy over Maye in his top four. “He’s extremely talented.”
Two sources ranked McCarthy QB2, and multiple panelists prefer his play-time processing and intangibles over other quarterbacks in this class. McCarthy’s sharp pro day has garnered praise beyond former Michigan coach and new Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh.
Some panelists pushed back on the top-five potential based on limited usage at times despite effectively quarterbacking the Wolverines to a national championship and a 27-1 record over the past two seasons.
“I need to watch McCarthy more,” said one GM, who grades McCarthy outside of Round 1, “but I never saw (the positives) we’re hearing about him now. J.J. never had to carry Michigan and was driving a damn Cadillac.”
McCarthy executes plays on time in structure, is willing to take shots over the middle and has needed athleticism. One source compared him to San Francisco 49ers starter Brock Purdy, whose traits meshed perfectly in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
Assistant coach: (McCarthy’s) technique is jacked up, but when we met him (this draft cycle), he knew he had to work on layering the ball. Maye is more of a sandlot passer. J.J. is probably better at working from the pocket in the long term. I’d probably take him (third).
Scout 1: I don’t love (McCarthy). He’s a winner and has all the intangibles, but I wouldn’t say I like his arm and think the athlete is a little overrated. He reminds me of Daniel Jones.
Scout 2: These top four quarterbacks are all better than Zach Wilson (2021 No. 2 pick) and Trey Lance (2021 No. 3 pick) coming out. Daniels, Maye and McCarthy could go in any order, depending on your preferred flavor.
In Peters I Trust! Whoever it is I believe Peters has put the work in to justify the selection. Only thing you can't guarantee is success. You just have to keep trying with as much knowledge about the players as possible and a development plan in place and just cross your fingers and say a few prayers.
