Just watched the Carwin/JDS fight again and a few things popped out that will matter for Mir.
1. Carwin's not a wrestler, but he could NOT take JDS down, and he could NOT hold him down either (and Carwin's a bigger dude than Mir). Mir needs to have some tricky takedowns to get JDS on the ground, and even then, the odds that JDS can get back up to his feet are very high.
2. JDS is fast as **** and he can throw down like whoa. The Carwin fight should have been stopped at the end of the 1st round, but Herb kept it going because Carwin wasn't quitting. Had he stopped the fight, Carwin's bloody face would have supported that decision and it would have been a legitimate victory. JDS threw a good 20 shots to Carwin's face, and then had the cardio to go another 3 rounds. Both Carwin and Roy Nelson can take a LOT more punishment than Frank Mir can.
3. JDS doesn't kick often, but when he does, he kicks with power. I'm expecting more kicks. I'm also expecting random submission attempts from JDS; he went for a RNC on Carwin after he knocked him down in the 1st but didn't apply it. I'm not familiar with his BJJ and grappling but I won't be surprised if he tries a sub. He's gonna probably fail at it anyways haha.
Prediction: JDS will TKO Mir in the 2nd after a measuring out period and some blood.