Dah-Dee

Regardless of the fact Legwold has been attending combines for almost 40 years and doing these rankings for almost 30, and is on the HOF selection panel and the smaller seniors selection committee, and therefore has an educated opinion I'd hope we all accord at least some respect/value, I wasn't interested in the absolute rankings but rather the QB rankings relative to each other and his related comments, which is why I listed only QBs and not Harrison/Nabers/whoever. But please do carry on. 😋

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/story/_/id/39913882/2024-nfl-draft-jeff-legwold-ranking-top-100-prospects 2024 NFL draft: Jeff Legwold ranks the top 100 prospects Jeff Legwold, ESPN Senior Writer Apr 20, 2024, 06:00 AM ET 5. Caleb Williams, QB, USC, 6-1⅛, 214 (DNR) Williams' improvisational skills and ability to extend plays are considered the best many scouts have seen in years. He finished his collegiate career with 120 total touchdowns and a long list of "How did he do that?" plays to go along with 14 interceptions. Williams will need to improve his decision-making when leaving the pocket (33 career fumbles) and clean up his accuracy when going deep. 6. Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU, 6-3¼, 210 (DNR) Daniels threw 40 TD passes and four interceptions in his 2023 Heisman Trophy-winning season, averaging a FBS-high 11.7 yards per attempt. He also rushed for 1,184 yards and 10 TDs last season. Daniels' slight frame might concern some teams, especially since he doesn't shy away from contact. But he plays with awareness, possesses high-end decision-making skills and maintains consistent accuracy all over the field. Some NFL personnel executives have Daniels graded as high as Williams. 22. J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan, 6-2½, 219 (DNR) McCarthy is not the high-volume passer other prospects on the board are -- he had 27 career games with 15 or fewer completions -- but his ability in an NFL-style scheme and his decisiveness are worthy of a long look. He doesn't always move through progressions as smoothly as others and has had a long delivery at times, but when he sees it, he drives the ball with accuracy. He will need time on the learning curve, so he might not become what he could be if he's rushed into starting. 23. Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina, 6-4⅜, 223 (DNR) Maye will likely be off the board well before this pick rolls around. His physical profile in the pocket is among the best of the QBs in this class. His arm strength is not a question -- he threw 62 touchdown passes over the past two seasons -- but his accuracy has drifted at times, especially this past season. Maye doesn't always decode where the openings are in coverages and will have to find the line between bold and bad, but his biggest supporters see Justin Herbert-level potential. 39. Bo Nix, QB, Oregon, 6-2⅛, 214 (DNR) You have to pause at his kind of efficiency -- he completed at least 71% of his passes in all 14 games last season. Some teams say almost a third of his attempts were thrown to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, but his time at Oregon elevated his game as well as his confidence. He's a tough, mobile competitor, but he will have to improve accuracy on throws when the receivers aren't facing him or crossing his face. 50. Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington, 6-2¼, 216 (DNR) With injuries to both shoulders (right in 2019 and his left throwing shoulder in 2021) and two ACL tears in his right knee, Penix's draft status is likely in the hands of medical staffs. He played two seasons at Washington without missing a game. His delivery has a hitch and his release point that is too low for some coaches' liking. But Penix is an easy passer with velocity who also displays wavering accuracy because of inconsistent footwork. Some evaluators say he is spotty at best when forced to leave the pocket. 94. Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina, 6-0¼, 211 (4.95) There was a time, early in his college career at Oklahoma, when Rattler was being projected as the top pick in the draft. But that was before he was benched his sophomore year -- for Caleb Williams, no less. He was productive at times in two seasons in South Carolina -- 37 touchdowns, 20 interceptions -- and has earned some draft love in recent months that could get him into Day 2.

I just don't get how Daniels is with EAG - one of the biggest management firms in sports, headed by one of the most powerful women in sports (White) - but ended up with two-bit trouble-making agent Ron Butler and co. Just bizarre. My guess is, White told the agent(s) to shut the hell up, and she's the one who talked with GMAP/etc.

2027 Draft Scout: QB Rankings

Yikes. Apparently not a whole lot of overlap for member lists on ES and Hogs Haven: https://www.hogshaven.com/2024/4/20/24134576/commanders-fans-vote-2-1-to-draft-jayden-daniels-over-drake-maye-as-support-for-trading-down-weakens What Commanders fans want to do with the #2 pick What a difference seven weeks can make!! You can see below the results of two survey questions asked here on Hogs Haven, nearly two months apart. Support for picking Jayden Daniels has spiked up from 21% to 51%. The idea of Drake Maye as the team’s pick also solidified, rising from 18% to 26%, while support for trading down — the most popular option at the end of February — fell from 29% to 17%.

That took a lot lot longer than it should have. Back when the 'JD doesn't want to play in NE' rumors started, EAG immediately refuted that (and JD posted, um, a blue hat). This makes me wonder if maybe the Vikings meeting didn't go as well as they'd hoped (either), so now they're trying to brush everything under the carpet and just hoping JD doesn't do a nose dive down the board on draft night.

Seems like at that point we're getting pretty subjective, e.g., "pretty much mediocre" and "lived up to draft status." 5 out of 10 from current NFL starters is a pretty good-looking fact. Sorry it doesn't completely support the Daniels-will-almost-certainly-bust narrative. How dare you skip over RG3 at 14 and Sam at 34. Heathen!

There's been a good bit of discussion in this thread about the bust rate on QBs, which according to some approaches 80-90%, so I was pleasantly surprised to see that 5 of the top 10 seasons came from current NFL starters.

Then it was a weak response. The better response would have pointed out that Daniels did in fact regress at ASU, 2021 was worse than 2019 by any measure. No need to reference Pickett - who actually had three very similarly mediocre seasons before his final-season breakout -unless he was trying to compare the 2 players' final seasons, which was a bad comparison.

Help me find Pickett on the top 100 list, I don't see him: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/leaders/pass-rating-player-season.html Rk Player Rate Year School 1 Jayden Daniels* 208 2023 LSU 2 Grayson McCall* 207.6 2021 Coastal Carolina 3 Mac Jones* 203.1 2020 Alabama 4 Joe Burrow* 202 2019 LSU 5 Tua Tagovailoa* 199.4 2018 Alabama 6 Kyler Murray* 199.2 2018 Oklahoma 7 Baker Mayfield* 198.9 2017 Oklahoma 8 Zach Wilson* 196.4 2020 Brigham Young 9 Baker Mayfield* 196.4 2016 Oklahoma 10 Kaleb Eleby 195.1 2020 Western Michigan 11 Dustin Crum 192.7 2020 Kent State 12 Russell Wilson* 191.8 2011 Wisconsin 13 Jalen Hurts* 191.2 2019 Oklahoma 14 Robert Griffin III* 189.5 2011 Baylor 15 Bo Nix* 188.3 2023 Oregon 16 C.J. Stroud* 186.6 2021 Ohio State 17 Colt Brennan* 186 2006 Hawaii 18 Jameis Winston* 184.8 2013 Florida State 19 Grayson McCall* 184.3 2020 Coastal Carolina 20 Logan Woodside* 183.3 2016 Toledo 21 Shaun King 183.3 1998 Tulane 22 Kellen Moore* 182.6 2010 Boise State 23 Cam Newton* 182 2010 Auburn 24 Hendon Hooker* 182 2021 Tennessee 25 Marcus Mariota* 181.7 2014 Oregon Rk Player Rate Year School 26 Stefan Lefors* 181.7 2004 Louisville 27 Justin Fields* 181.4 2019 Ohio State 28 Mike White* 181.4 2016 Western Kentucky 29 Sam Bradford* 180.8 2008 Oklahoma 30 Trey Lance 180.6 2019 North Dakota State 31 Kyle Trask* 180 2020 Florida 32 McKenzie Milton* 179.3 2017 UCF 33 Layne Hatcher 179.2 2020 Arkansas State 34 Sam Howell* 179.1 2020 North Carolina 35 Vernon Adams* 179.1 2015 Oregon 36 Tanner Morgan* 178.7 2019 Minnesota 37 David Johnson* 178.7 2008 Tulsa 38 Danny Wuerffel 178.4 1995 Florida 39 C.J. Stroud* 177.7 2022 Ohio State 40 Matt Corral* 177.6 2020 Ole Miss 41 Tyler Huntley* 177.6 2019 Utah 42 Jim McMahon 176.9 1980 Brigham Young 43 Stetson Bennett* 176.7 2021 Georgia 44 Kaidon Salter* 176.6 2023 Liberty 45 Sam Bradford* 176.5 2007 Oklahoma 46 Alex Smith* 176.5 2004 Utah 47 Brandon Doughty* 176.5 2015 Western Kentucky 48 Ty Detmer 175.6 1989 Brigham Young 49 Justin Fields* 175.6 2020 Ohio State 50 Hendon Hooker* 175.5 2022 Tennessee Rk Player Rate Year School 51 Will Grier* 175.5 2018 West Virginia 52 A.J. McCarron* 175.3 2012 Alabama 53 Zach Terrell* 175.2 2016 Western Michigan 54 Kellen Moore* 175.2 2011 Boise State 55 Jason Bean* 175 2023 Kansas 56 Rudy Carpenter* 175 2005 Arizona State 57 Joe Hamilton 175 1999 Georgia Tech 58 Aaron Murray* 174.8 2012 Georgia 59 Bryce Petty* 174.3 2013 Baylor 60 Dwayne Haskins* 174.1 2018 Ohio State 61 Case Keenum* 174 2011 Houston 62 Colt McCoy* 173.8 2008 Texas 63 Steve Sarkisian 173.6 1996 Brigham Young 64 Baker Mayfield* 173.3 2015 Oklahoma 65 Trent Dilfer 173.1 1993 Fresno State 66 Jason Campbell* 172.9 2004 Auburn 67 Johnny Manziel* 172.9 2013 Texas A&M 68 Kerry Collins 172.9 1994 Penn State 69 Jerry Rhome 172.6 1964 Tulsa 70 Spencer Rattler* 172.6 2020 Oklahoma 71 Tim Tebow* 172.5 2007 Florida 72 Tim Tebow* 172.4 2008 Florida 73 Jalen Milroe* 172.2 2023 Alabama 74 Dillon Gabriel* 172 2023 Oklahoma 75 Zach Mettenberger* 171.4 2013 LSU Rk Player Rate Year School 76 Chad Pennington 171.4 1999 Marshall 77 Grayson McCall* 171.4 2022 Coastal Carolina 78 Nick Stevens* 171.3 2016 Colorado State 79 Jake Fromm* 171.2 2018 Georgia 80 Teddy Bridgewater* 171.1 2013 Louisville 81 Kevin Hogan* 171 2015 Stanford 82 David Fales* 170.8 2012 San Jose State 83 Rex Grossman 170.8 2001 Florida 84 Bart Hendricks 170.6 2000 Boise State 85 Danny Wuerffel 170.6 1996 Florida 86 Mason Rudolph* 170.6 2017 Oklahoma State 87 Philip Rivers* 170.5 2003 North Carolina State 88 Bobby Hoying 170.4 1995 Ohio State 89 Akili Smith 170.4 1998 Oregon 90 Daunte Culpepper 170.2 1998 UCF 91 Andrew Luck* 170.2 2010 Stanford 92 Caleb Williams* 170.1 2023 USC 93 Brock Purdy* 169.9 2018 Iowa State 94 J.T. Barrett* 169.8 2014 Ohio State 95 Andrew Luck* 169.7 2011 Stanford 96 Caleb Williams* 169.6 2021 Oklahoma 97 Billy Blanton 169.6 1996 San Diego State 98 Terrance Owens* 169.2 2011 Toledo 99 Trevor Lawrence* 169.2 2020 Clemson 100 John Beck* 169.1 2006 Brigham Young

FWIW, the agent who responded to Schefter today (Ira Turner) was not the same guy previously identifed as Daniels' agent and who posted the emojis/etc (Ron Butler), although both are with the same agency.

I think this is a great point and one reason I certainly don't take my own takes too seriously. The people who actually do this for a living have access to tons of info we'll never see, and use the info we can see in ways we might not think of. I saw one article recently where an NFC GM said he had a 50-play cut-up of Maye running from a clean pocket when he had receivers wide open. Maybe he was exaggerating, but that caught my attention because I hadn't really seen anyone talk about that issue with Maye. So I do think, at a minimum, football personnel are really diving deep to cover all the bases on prospects, which gives me some comfort, especially with what seems to be a super sharp group newly in charge for Washington.

Here's a big one that has nothing to do with anything but the QB's ability to put the ball where it needs to be - and where Daniels matches up very very well with NFL QBs (and better than Maye at being on-target at every level of the field): https://www.the33rdteam.com/what-does-accuracy-tell-us-about-the-2024-quarterback-draft-class/ What Does Accuracy Tell Us About The 2024 Quarterback Draft Class? [excerpt] For this exercise, we’ll look at completion percentage and on-target rate, as charted by Sports Info Solutions, for each depth of the field. SIS defines on-target percentage as “a pass that hits the receiver in stride, regardless of whether the pass is completed.” It’s not a perfect one-for-one stand-in for accuracy, but it paints a picture of ball placement we can use to set up a prospect’s profile. Here’s a look at the 2024 class with their depth rates, completion rates and on-target rates compared to each other. The first thing to note is how different the college and NFL games are from a depth standpoint. Only the quarterbacks listed above threw passes between 1-10 air yards on more than 40 percent of their attempts. Meanwhile, NFL quarterbacks live in this world. Among 32 qualified quarterbacks in 2023, only three were below 40 percent. The average for NFL quarterbacks last season was 47.7 percent.

I have big concerns about Daniels but this is not one of them. The average age of college football players has gotten older in recent years because of the covid year, and it'll keep getting older because of NIL - I think NIL is only going to get bigger, which will mean more money for more players, which will impact those who otherwise might declare for the NFL as underclassmen. Already, a ton of the top prospects this year are 22-24, including some of the QBs. And the SEC was full of those top prospects. Even in the Alabama game, which was not Daniels' best game, he put up 382 total yards in 3 quarters with three first-round (Turner, Arnold, McKinstry) and at least one second-round (Braswell) Alabama defenders on the field, with the most points anybody scored on them all year. Daniels might have had a better supporting cast than some of the other QB prospects not named Penix, but the gap is not as big as some want to believe, and Daniels also played against much better competition than others. For example, LSU had the #17 strength of schedule last year (#2 in 2022); UNC was #71 - the fourth weakest among Power 5 schools (and 2 of the 3 below them were also ACC schools). And don't forget, unlike Maye who had a 1,500-yard All-American RB that defenses had to account for, LSU coaches set it up so Daniels basically *was* their running game. Defenses focused on Daniels more so than with any QB not named Caleb; one SEC DC said they didn't care that Daniels had Nabers/Thomas, they still preferred Daniels throwing the ball because he gashed them so badly on the ground, it was a pick-your-poison situation. So I prefer Maye but don't hate Daniels and don't see any reasonable basis for a theory that Daniels' improvement in 2023 was based primarily on his relative age/experience and supporting cast - especially with the amount of coverage/discussion out there over the last couple of years on what Daniels actually *did* to improve.

Yeah, I saw that in a social media post last night but couldn't find it this morning. I was a little surprised Vegas wasn't in the mix.

I get it on the metrics being quite fallible. I'm just saying that together with what we already know about Daniels (slight frame, will take big hits), this article results in way too many flashing red lights on Daniels to suit my comfort level on risk. At this point, with the info we have, for me it's pretty clear that the potential-bust warnings on Daniels greatly outnumber those for Maye. I've said before and still think Daniels is fantastic, love watching him play, just want to watch him... at a distance. Like in Minnesota. Whether we draft him or not though, I'll hope for LSU-type highlights and an injury-free career.

Well here's a pretty terrifying article on Daniels that, imho, should slam the door shut on any desire to take JD5 at #2. It's pretty long, with lots of data, so I won't copy the whole thing here, but even the last two paragraphs will produce nightmares: https://www.dabearsblog.com/2024/jayden-daniels-looks-hauntingly-familiar Jayden Daniels Looks Hauntingly Familiar Robert Schmitz | April 16th, 2024 [excerpt] Mariota, like Fields, appears on basically every list with Daniels. He scrambled from a clean pocket at an above average rate (though not as often as Daniels and Fields), scrambled at an above average rate overall (again not quite as often as Daniels and Fields), targeted MOF less often than those two, and like Daniels was an overly conservative deep passer. His NFL career is a tale of maddening inconsistency as he looked like a surefire star early on only to see his career disintegrate under a parade of turn downs, hits, sacks, fumbles, and injuries. A QB who takes too many sacks and won’t take chunk plays over the middle of the field but also won’t compensate by pushing the ball vertically is just not a very valuable NFL starter, unfortunately. In the end, comps in the NFL Draft are a valuable tool — there are only so many ways to operate at the quarterback position and it is likely we have seen similar versions of players before. It’s important however that these comps be grounded in data and reality, and when you do so it’s obvious that we have seen players like Jayden Daniels before, just not in the form of a guy like the reigning MVP Lamar Jackson. Daniels slots much more comfortably into the archetype established by guys like Marcus Mariota and Justin Fields, and if you’re not comfortable with the likelihood of ending up with the next version of those guys, I’d say Jayden Daniels may not be the top 10 QB pick for you.

Mack Brown on QB Drake Maye's competitive nature: 'He had to fight to get a chicken leg at the table' Published: Apr 19, 2024 at 08:29 AM The youngest of four boys, Drake Maye is used to battling for everything. Coming from an athletically inclined family overshadowed the University of North Carolina product's upbringing, his father, Mark, was an All-American high school quarterback and played college ball at UNC. His mother, Amiee, was an All-State basketball player. His oldest brother, Luke, was a Tar Heel basketball forward, earning a national title. Cole won a national championship in baseball at Florida. Beau dealt with knee injuries but still walked onto the UNC basketball team. Growing up in such a family frames Maye's personality and competitive nature. North Carolina head coach Mack Brown recently told "The Jim Rome Show" that Maye's background will help him at the next level. "If his mom and dad would let me, I'd adopt him," Brown said. "He is a great person. He's competitive. He's grown up in an athletic family. His mom was a college athlete. His dad was the leading passer in the ACC. He's got two brothers that won national championships -- one in baseball at Florida, one at basketball here. He's got another brother that was on our basketball team. He's the youngest of four, so he's been beaten up. He had to fight to get a chicken leg at the table. He's so competitive in everything he does. He's smart. He's got pride. He is so passionate about football that he does everything right in his life to make sure that he is going to play the best he can play." A college coach stumping for his former player is nothing new, but given the situation it remains informative in how we (and teams) view Maye entering the NFL. The film is the film -- it will be picked apart for positives and negatives. Maye has both sky-high potential and some questionable attributes entering the NFL. But it's intangibles like the ones Brown verbalized that the team that selects Maye will lean on. NFL clubs overturn every stone in the pre-draft process, particularly for first-round quarterbacks. Brown admitted that Maye is only starting two seasons and 26 games could be a negative entering his pro career (for comparison, Jayden Daniels stated 55 games in college). "If there's a negative for him, he's played two years," Brown said. "Most of these guys have played five and six years because of COVID. He's only had two. So, what I see in that is that he's accomplished national player of the year in only two years. What he's got is the upside is unbelievable because he can improve so much -- every year. And I don't think there's any question. You got to get with the right team. You got to have the right coaches, but he's a guy that can win a Super Bowl at quarterback." The discussion entering draft week will revolve around where and in what order the quarterbacks will land after Caleb Williams. Maye, Daniels, J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix are all options to go in the first round. With each boasting different talents, NFL teams must separate the intangibles that could make each a leader and potential star.

Edit: Adding full text since I thought the scout comment at the end was more interesting than the Quinn reference: Draft analyst @ryanwilsonCBS on why the thinks the Commanders will take Jayden Daniels: "Dan Quinn's a defensive guy and if you're asking Quinn who you don't want to face when game-planning against a QB, Daniels checks a lot of those boxes. I've talked to scouts that describe him this way -- he demoralizes defenses."

Is that really who you think Keim is talking to? Really?? Come on now. When we've got the most credible reporter with any connection to the Commanders, notorious for being cautious, giving us info from his sources, you don't think that's worth listening to? Keim is not an idiot and he knows it's "lying season." If the primary source (e.g., Keim) is trustworthy, then the secondary/anonymous sources that person uses are worth at least giving fair consideration versus automatic discard. When it's Eric Freaking Bickel passing along "gossip" from some unnamed tween, then yeah, it's time for a grain or bucket of salt. Besides, you guys need to stop picking on Minnesota's next QB, you'll have Justin Jefferson hunting you down for badmouthing his boy's successor.

Starting to wonder if we might see a three-way trade, after we take Maye, with Minnesota getting #3, NE #4, Arizona #11, plus whatever else would be involved. Vikings get Daniels, NE gets McCarthy. Or maybe NE just trades straight up with Minnesota and takes Penix at 11.

That actually did turn out to be interesting, because the LSU QB coach / OC talked about that specific issue in an interview during the season, it was one of those pieces that discussed the VR training. After working with VR for some time, starting in spring/summer 2023 and continuing into the season, which they had been using at 1.25-1.5X speed, coaches discovered Daniels was going through his progressions too quickly, moving on from guys right before they came open. So one of the things they did, besides slowing down the VR to real-time speed, and I think HC Kelly also talked about this, was they had Daniels start doing that stupid little tap-dance in the pocket as a way to help him time things better, so he'd feel it if he were going through progressions too fast. Allegedly the tap-dance started to help during the middle / second half of the season. So that's not a panic/frantic thing (despite what Solak, the single 'analyst' I've seen use that description, recently said about Daniels... right before I saw you use it for the first time lol), it's a coached thing. FWIW, Quinn also specifically discussed how impressed he was with Daniels' processing, talking about how he navigated the complex looks/schemes/changes SEC defenses threw at him. So Daniels is apparently a really good/fast processor, which I hope serves him super well in Minnesota after we take Maye and the Vikings trade up with NE.

Yeah, I do think that's a different conversation and agree with Daniels seemingly not having enough strength to curl/coil when he *does* get hit. My point previously was that he doesn't actually take a ton of big hits, we just keep seeing the same 4 hits over and over. I've watched all of his 2023 snaps, a few times (get a life, me) and the big hits in those clips are really the only 'bad' hits he took all year. There were other solid tackles, but nothing vicious and no other ragdolling. But I also agree, it just takes one bad hit, whether it's a legal hit or not, and his career could be done - it's my biggest (RG3PTSD-induced) fear about Daniels as a possible Commanders QB. One thing I like about Maye is, he seems to know how to take a hit. Part of that, I think, is because he's physically strong/solid and so it's harder for DL/whatever to leverage against him on tackles. Most of the time, it's kind of a slow-mo wrestling/twisting fall. Don't want to jinx him, but it seems like tacklers generally have a hard time getting a solid hit on him.

I think the RG3 build comparison is good, and agree that Vick/Lamar are better built / more solid. Not so sure on Randall though, when he came into the league that guy was 6'4" and 212 pounds of skinneeeeee, looks like he's wearing his big brother's jersey here: