Darth Tater

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

$6B is a lot of money - but it’s not a lot in terms of business acquisition. And an NFL franchise is a very profitable and cash positive business to acquire. 

 

It’s a ‘fixer upper’ but there is money to made in the real estate portion of building a new stadium outside just the value of the franchise growing through the investment. 
 

I don’t know what the numbers say - but $6B is not a big sticker price. Heck Twitter was sold for $44B, loses money and is (apparently) running on architecture held together with sticky tape and old chewing gum. 

Its not just a fixer-upper, the books are suspect. Twitter was sold for what it was because Musk did not check the books before his offer was locked in. He tried hard to get out of it but when he found out who was going to be in charge of figuring out whether he was still on the hook or not, he decided to plunge forth.

Cardinals will be on the block soon from what I'm hearing:

Dysfunctional for years, check.

Rumors of it being a toxic workplace have been around for years, check.

Full blown accusations of a toxic workplace now coming out, check.

Owner attacking the accuser instead of taking the high road even though the accuser is going through the NFL's kangaroo court, check.

Meanwhile you have Lamar. Lamar's situation means the NFLPAs should push hard for the next CBA to get rid of tagging. The Santa Clara 49ers situation could put a hard stop on the ability of the NFL to help get politicians to screw over its constituency, especially when fewer fans can even go to games while even more citizens don't want to subsidies the wealthy subset who do.

UFC is offering 2.5B over valuation for WWE. If Dan has to sell below $7B for the team, the rest of the owners feel their franchise value has been damaged.  However, if you are buying this franchise, there are huge red flags that should be screaming discount not premium.

• NFL leadership is screaming by their actions that the probability that NFL is suspect as a whole is significantly greater than 0. While said probability is low, a smart buyer buyer will at least not offer a premium.
• At a minimum, you are going to have drop another 2-3B on purchase of the team.
• The Washington Club books are highly suspect, even if you give the NFL as a whole a pass. You either must get a discount for taking on that risk or get a lower price to pay for your own team of forensic accountants (and then there is going to be time to do the research).
• The team itself may be liable for some of Snyder's actions as owner.

On 3/28/2023 at 5:33 PM, FootballZombie said:

There are groups on national radio banging the "new owner should chase Lamar" drum even harder after reports of 6 Billy on the table for the team. Just open questioning how you can pay that much for a team and then choose to stand pat at QB.

Because, at this point, you are NOT going to be able to fire Rivera. There is only 1 scenario were such a move is great and that has rarely happened. If Lamar is about what he's been for Baltimore, you will then have a coach who is going to be hard to fire and you have a good chance of condemning your team to another 3-5 years of mediocrity (though it may be more fun than the last 3 and maybe you get to be the new Dallas Cowboys, going to the playoffs but doing that 1 and done thing). If the signing is a fail, you'll have no resources and have the new coach and he'll be forced to take a QB he may not want.

Watson? I bet the Browns will be the AFC-North basement guys for the next several years.

Wilson?  So far that looks like a fail.

Stafford?  Rams were above average to elite (albeit, just once) for the 4 years before he was acquired. They had the resources and, personally, I don't know if what they did was worth it.

Brady? A true FA, there was 0 downside risk for the Bucs (at least as close to 0 downside risk as you can get in the NFL).

History suggests that you get your QB organically, a guy that everyone thinks is a has-been and thus is cheap or you already are near elite.

Finally, data indicates that the only predictive measure (about 99%) of a QB developing is either the HC,  OC or the QB coach.  The team does fail this year, you'll more likely have the resources and opportunity to get your guy organically.

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I don't get the impression even a little that the league doesn't want Bezos.  Sounds like the league is going to let Snyder do his own thing with the sale -- i am not convinced Bezos comes in with the Godfather bid that some expect but if he indeed did that I'd assume they would embrace it.  the more Dan gets for this the better it is for the league.

They probably don't want Bezos now knowing that given the valuation growth in NFL franchises, men like Bezos may soon be the only game in town when it comes to selling franchises.

2 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Ooh, Jeff. Buy it for me baby. Jeff, Jeff.

 

In a normal world, if Jeff wanted the team; it would b e his.

 

We aren't in a normal world because Dan is the seller.

Its not just Dan but a distressed asset your going to have to pour another 3-4B into to even put it out a mediocre product.

2 hours ago, SoCalSkins said:

The money shot will still be Bezos dumping his  Brink’s truck load of cash all over Snyder. 

When you are talking a price that is more than 10% of your LIQUID net worth, somebody like Jeff is going to only consider an asset that if not economically your best investment, still makes enough to be more than sustainable. We are not talking about some luxury item that is just a precious but an investment that must at least must be self sustaining (and probably an asset that is less liquid than his Amazon wealth). Now, Magic Johnson is the only proposed player here that has actively turned around a franchise and Harris owns one, so they know the work they'll have to do and Bezos may not, so, yeah, I could see him overbidding.

@Skinsinparadise

Yep, I can't see how anybody could think wanting to roll with Howell is bizarre.  The argument for Howell based on Purdy is just a supporting reason for going this route. The main reasons are a full year seeing Howell (albeit mostly in practice) with his own eyes, getting feedback from guys whose main interest is the team or themselves not Sam and interacting with Howell, are Ron's main arguments. For EB, it was his first year as OC when Mahomes started blowing up, while Howell is obviously not Mahomes part deux, a decent performance by Howell destroys any arguments against EB as a potential HC (because you can argue that Mahomes was on Nagy or Reid now) and even a mediocre performance by Howell won't hurt EB's argument for opportunity.

As a fan or as the future owner, you should want Ron to succeed or fail his way.  If Ron succeeds his way, he is a good option going forward. If Ron fail his way, we need to change and have more open options for the new coach. If Ron succeeds in a way forced on him, the jury is still out. If Ron fails in a way forced on him, we leave limited options for any new coach and they have a hard limit, not a soft one like 2020.

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Since we signed Wylie Im assuming if we draft a T itll be someone who can play on the left.

The three of our top 4 LTs were top 12 (Lachey was a 12, Samuels was a 3 and Williams was a 4). Our only great LT that was not a top pick was Jacoby and great near HOF-level LTs (Jacoby should be) found off the street or as low round guys are nearly as much a unicorn as finding the next Tom Brady,

2 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

Damn, that's a good comp friend. Yeah. I'm torn, seriously and I'm not necessarily in the PFF "never take a RB in the 1st" crowd. I can see how they arrived at that conclusion, but I'm still meh about it. A strong running game is an essential part of the equation. 

The last RB this team took in the first round was in the 1960s, Ray McDonald.  Of our top 10 career rushers, only John Riggins was a first rounder.  This list includes an 10th rounder, two 8s, a 6 and a 5. 

14 minutes ago, Conn said:

Are people this impatient after 20+ years? Who cares? It’s obviously happening, can’t we just enjoy it even if it’s in slow motion? I don’t get what the angst is about. Let’s just consider it edging, embrace it, and look forward to the big day.

I think much of the lack of patience is due to 20+ years of hell. The real hell, knowing that it wasn't Dan's incompetence that was holding us back, is really only a definite thing going back to about 2013.

35 minutes ago, NewCliche21 said:

 

God: "I hate Redskins/WFT/Commanders fans"

FTFY

1996, we're 7-3, sure we lost our last game but we should win 3-4 of our remaining 6, including this one on the Cards. Next week, OK this is close but that Darryl Pounds int seals the game! F*!

26 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I think the reporters do know more than us but none of them have that ultimate smoking gun knowledge. Their material needs to be judged of course within context because the info they have are leaked typically from people who have an agenda -- the buyers, the seller.

In my 58 years, every time I've heard some one using the phrase 'smoking gun', it was usually BS.

The price is already past where even those in the top .05% of the top 1% can't really afford the purchase of an NFL team. Harris plus Rales net worth is about 13Billion and to buy the team at asking price and then have to hold back another couple billion for the new stadium takes more than half that. Currently, the NFL does not allow the amount of leverage needed to buy the team. To make any deal acceptable to the NFL and Dan, our next stadium WILL be like the Santa Clara 49ers where the uber rich watch the rich sit in the sun while those those in the middle class get to go to games on occasions and sit on the goal posts.

2 hours ago, Commander PK said:

 

I've not read much on him, but if legacy motivates him more than profits at this stage (I mean how much fortune does a person need?) ...he could secure an incredible legacy by returning this organization to its prior status.  Perhaps even exceeding anything that has come before. 

 

State of the art everything in the Nation's Capital.  Prime Stadium at RFK.  A new team HQ and training facility in Landover only 2 miles outside of the City.  Training camp at the old HQ in Ashburn.  Wouldn't that be something?

If you are talking about Bezos, the idea that he looks at this as a legacy thing is scary.  His other big legacy projects at least so far are fails. In any case, if you take an good look at Dan's history as owner, it was when he realized that this team was not going to be his legacy is when most of the improprieties seem to start. Yes, the character to be what he is now seems to have always been there but that didn't really come to the fore until the Shanahan fail as his focus seems to be the Dan being the primary architect of a good team that put his idol, Jerrah Jones, to shame.

If Jeff is a good choice, he better be coming here to make money, not build a legacy. I don't trust legacy builders except ones that see the legacy as just the expected fallout of a profitable organization.

19 hours ago, El Mexican said:

There's a lot of discussion around the web about this subject.

 

From really complex indexes to the 50 year-old passer rating system the NFL uses.

 

I've always viewed either Yards per Attempt (YPA) or Yards per Completion (YPC) as the most relevant indicator of a good QB.

The higher the number the more probability we have of a balanced game-plan since our QB is passing the right amount of times and doing some damage on the opposing D.

No dinks and doinks that serve no purpose but to artificially inflate the total completion %. 

 

Case in point with QBs who had at least 100 pass attempts during 2022:

 

Tua T led the League with 8.9 YPA

Sam Darnold - 8.2

Mahomes - 8.1

Purdy - 8.1

Hurts - 8

Jimmy G - 7.9

Tannehill - 7.8

Dalton - 7.6

Goff - 7.6

Josh Allen - 7.6

Geno - 7.5  

 

TH finished about middle of the pack with 7.2 YPA and Wentz was one of the worst at 6.4.

 

It's a simple stat and I firmly believe if we want to have any success around here we should take it seriously

 

I always think in terms of YPC but some of that is bias because I like the real passing game of guys like Joe Gibbs. Completion % is big to me only in terms of how many yards those completions got and how likely you were to get those yards. I also tend to look at TD to attempts ratios and interceptions to attempts ratios (don't like giving up cheap points to the other team or losing out on points you should score). Of course, in the end, its how many offensive wins (put up more than a net 21 points) that mean the most to me.

On 3/1/2023 at 1:40 PM, SoCalSkins said:

The sale will be the largest in sports history. It will sell for significantly more than the Broncos who have fairly new stadium and won the Super Bowl not too long ago. The value of the brand are the remaining diehards plus the huge numbers who will come back as soon as we have a new owner and start winning. This is nothing like an expansion team. Regardless of how poorly Dan ran it, it’s still one of the premiere brands in all of sports. The sale price reflects that fact. 

The value of the brand is in all the die-hards we should have been creating in the last 23 years. Remember, most die-hards started out as band-wagoners or casuals.  For example, when I was growing up, we had at least a 50-50 chance of winning most games (there were only a handful that winning was not a surprise and in many of those years, many losses were surprises) so watching meant that most games would be more fun than the alternatives an 8-9 year old had on a fall Sunday afternoon. All valuation is dependent on future projections of cash-flow, not past ones or ones that were driven by a customer base that soon will not exist (I'll probably be dead in less than 20). On top of this, another loss is the fact that many of the old die-hards who would be spending a huge piece of their disposable (and maybe not so disposable income) on the Redskins are realizing that team they loved may no longer really exist. This is all going on during a period that disposable income for most people is falling. Heck, according to the most recent numbers, I am in the upper middle class and I don't see how most people can afford to go to more than a couple of games a year. The only attractiveness I see for this team's valuation is the fact that much of the DMV has a relatively high amount of disposable income (new stadium can be built small with expensive amenities that generate cash flow all year round and get big revenue from the wine and cheese crowd).

On 3/1/2023 at 2:02 PM, Spearfeather said:

 

Nah, ... It was Bazini.

 

 

 

Again.

Was about to use only the Snyder part but I was worried people may just think I'm slamming Snyder not just paraphrasing a mafia movie (given Snyder's comments about the NFL being a mafia).

3 hours ago, BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen said:

 

IF ONLY they hadn't swept the Wilkinson report under the rug, none of this would have happened. Some of these owners must be thinking this right now and questioning whether Goodell is Golden or a Goofball.

 

They should have learned fro Watergate that the coverup is always worse than the crime.

Snyder's just a pimp. It was Goodell all along...

Actually Bob Kraft or maybe Jerry Jones.

3 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

The Bears will be a really interesting team to keep tabs on leading into the draft. There's a decent chance they'll have a pre-draft trade lined up for the 1st pick. Whether they go from #1 to #2 or from #1 to #4 OR from #1 to #2 to #4 ... they'll have loads of draft capital come draft day as well as a ton of cap space.

 

I just ran a PFN mock with the Bears to see what trades I was offered. I think they're excessive, so I'm not including the future picks that were offered as well.

 

I will just do the 1 trade-down as the likelihood of that is really high. I was offered #2, #12 and #33. Which allowed ..

#2 Will Anderson, DE Alabama

#12 Jordan Attison, WR USC

#33 Trade to Washington for Daron Payne

#53 Cody Mauch, OT NDSU

#64 Steve Avila, G TCU

 

Now let's suppose they trade down multiple times ...

#1 to Houston for #2, #12, #33

 

Chicago could offer #33 to Washington right then for Payne to solidify DT before the draft.

Trade #2 to Indianapolis for #4 and #35 (and probably additional picks)

#4 Will Anderson, DE Alabama

#12 Jordan Attison, WR USC

#33 Trade to Washington for Daron Payne

#35 Darnell Wright, OT Tennessee

#53 Jarrett Patterson, G Notre Dame

#64 Calijah Kancey, DT Pitt

 

Either scenario would absolutely stack the Bears (they're very blessed this off-season) and would give them plenty of capital to throw a high-end 2nd rounder to Washington for Payne. They have the money, the picks, and would absolutely re-stock the entire franchise across the board while adding a young veteran presence on the DL to help the young guys gel. 

 

Adding Will Anderson AND Daron Payne to that DL would be massive for them. And they'd still have plenty of other picks to add talent for Fields and that offense.

 

 

Do they trade Fields and give him a chance to go on to a decent career although that'd mean they'd be attempting to destroy another QB's career. You got to go all the way back to Sid Luckman to find them fielding and elite QB like Fields was supposed to be.🤪

One of two things will happen.  We go to and win at least one playoff game or have a new HC next year.  OK, back in 2021, I was pretty sure that was what should have been true in 2022 but with the sale, Ron gets another year at least.

Go with Howell sign a cheap low tier vet backup like Taylor (though resigning Taylor may create issues not his fault). Let Howell and this vet compete. First likely scenario is that we are moving on to a new coach in 2024 and don't want to handicap him with a high end QB that needs a shot (claiming a top pick at QB is for competition is BS here) who probably won't have the stats that say he is a bust or a boom. This new guy should have the total freedom to pick his own guy or stay with Howell. Also, too late for Howell, but I really don't want Rivera and his staff anywhere near an undeveloped high-end QB.

1 hour ago, CommandB11 said:

What would it take to trade to 1 for Bryce Young? Just a hypothetical....

Being idiots would be first on the list. Given the haul we'd be giving up, you'd have to be certain that Bryce Young is all that. One thing, if you look at all former QBs who actually became a franchise guy, you will find a QB guru or offensive genius at coach and/or a few of the QB's best friends (these are guys who either take the pressure off or make highlight catches consistently while not dropping a thing).

Don't understand anybody who wants a QB.  I'd be a bit surprised if we move on from Rivera especially given the new owner will not be able to make a move until March. We are not picking at 16 so anybody we pick is likely only to be competition. In any case, the only NFC team to have a top 10 QB that'll be starting are the Giants. In recent years, our best QB over a multi-year span was a 4th rounder. TH's record is 12-11-1. Smith, while originally a number 1 came to us in a trade, went 11-5 as our starter. While Norm Snead was turned into Sonny Jurgensen, we really have had no long-term success at picking a QB in the top of the draft since Sammy Baugh.  Our biggest issue offensively this year was oline play.  Empty backfields were autosacks unless we emptied the backfield via pre-snap motion.  Dallas was not pressuring Howell and still came away with 3 sacks! We never had success running outside the tackle box this year unless we hit on a schemed play or the RB just bounced it out.  Usually the fails were due to penetration by a dlineman or a backer. We got lots of running yards after contact. Our next need is consistent CB or LB play that can create turnovers. We either need another good LB or figure out how to play more nickel variations.

Disappointment? Probably Mike Shanahan. I remember that after the Dallas game in 2012, I was certain that we were looking in at the beginning of a dynasty.  Gruden is probably next on my list because until the final game, I thought we would at least become a perennial playoff contender. I also enjoyed our offense from 2015 and 2016 and often wonder what might have happened if we'd had a top 10 defense at the time. Rivera hasn't disappointed me primarily because Mike taught me once again not to trust retreads.

3 hours ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

So McVay goes to a stacked team and trades all their assets to win now and decides to leave when the bill is due.

 

Hard pass for me. 

He did? In 2017, he took over a team that had not had a winning season in 12 straight years and took them to the playoffs immediately, won an NFC championship in year 2, and the SB in year 5. In his 6 years with the Rams, this is his first losing season and has gone to the playoffs 4 times. In his SB year, 3 teams in his division had 10+ win years and in only 1 year did the division not send at least 2 teams to the playoffs.