Player Spotlight: Jake Plummer

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http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=fanball-playerspotlightjakep&prov=fanball&type=fantasy

Player Spotlight: Jake Plummer

by Court E. Mann - Associate Editor, Fanball.com

Tuesday, August 3, 2004

It took Jake Plummer six seasons to get out of the Arizona desert, the NFL's version of football purgatory, but he finally escaped when his contract expired at the end of the 2002 season. The best quarterback on that free-agent market, Plummer found himself a new home in Denver, where he signed on the dotted line for $40 million over seven years.

However, we're not sure this is what he bargained for.

Just one year into his long-term deal, he has lost his leading receiver (Shannon Sharpe) to the broadcast booth, his leading rusher (Clinton Portis) to the Redskins, and one of his starting wideouts (Ed McCaffrey) to retirement.

With question marks in the backfield, out wide, and at tight end, the pressure suddenly falls on Jake to be the team's primary playmaker. Wait, where have we seen this before?

In Arizona, Plummer's backers claimed he had zero support—no running game to take the pressure off, no wide receivers to throw to, no line to protect him. In that environment, he threw more interceptions than touchdowns in all but one season, never once threw more than 18 scores, and surpassed 3,000 passing yards only twice in six seasons.

Clearly, he has a much better infrastructure in Denver—where the offense has ranked in the NFL's top 10 in eight of the last 11 seasons—but his sudden loss of established weapons raises the question nonetheless: Should we expect more of the same from Plummer?

If you ask the Broncos, their quarterback is poised for a breakout season. The argument essentially goes something like this: Denver's system always produces no matter the personnel, and Plummer now has a full year and offseason under his belt.

"Jake is going to have a hell of a year," teammate Rod Smith told the Rocky Mountain News. "Because he knows his personnel, working with them, he knows our system better."

Admittedly, there is evidence to support Rod's claim. On the surface Plummer had another typical Jake the Snake year in his first Broncos effort—15 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 198 yards per game—but he missed a total of five games due to injury. Subtracting a three-interception effort in his debut, he put up 18 total touchdowns (three rushing), four interceptions, and 2,067 passing yards in 10 games.

In addition, if any team in the league has proven their system can produce no matter who's on the field, it's Mike Shanahan's. The Broncos have pushed four different runners, including two rookies, past the 1,000-yard mark in the last six years. While Portis, Sharpe, and McCaffrey are gone, talent like third-year receiver Ashley Lelie, second-year back Quentin Griffin, and rookie speedster Tatum Bell have the potential to shine in this system.

However, those who more "affectionately" refer to Plummer as Joke, will call this line of reasoning out for what it is: convenient spin. While it wouldn't surprise us to see the Denver offense produce despite all of its turnover, we are skeptical that The Snake will slither his way into fantasy lineups for more than the occasional spot start.

His passing weapons include a fading veteran (Smith), an inconsistent youngster (Lelie), and a group behind them that includes journeyman Willie Jackson and a handful of nobodies with five career catches. Shannon Sharpe's 62 catches and team-leading eight touchdowns give way to a motley crew including Byron Chamberlain, Jed Weaver, and some dude named Putzier. His running game will prove capable eventually, but isn't likely to command defense's attention early.

Put simply, for Plummer to establish himself as a fantasy starter, he would have to throw for at least 23 touchdowns and 3,300 yards. He's never thrown that many touchdowns and has bested that yardage total only twice in his career.