TSN:Week 13 primer: Reaching for the playoffs

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Week 13 primer: Reaching for the playoffs

Vinnie Iyer

Week 13 is here, which means Thanksgiving is here, giving us our first Thursday NFL treat since Week 1.

I'm not fazed by triskaidekaphobia or a potential midweek triptophan stupor, as this week will do much to determine both postseason positioning and draft order as several teams of similar statures collide. There are four matchups that each feature two teams in current playoff slots.

Another key to which teams live to play in January is the remaining four-game schedule after this week. I figure there are 16 teams still realistically in the hunt.

The eight contenders with the rockiest roads ahead: Cincinnati, Dallas, Denver, Miami, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Seattle, Tampa Bay.

The eight contenders with the easiest streets: Baltimore, Carolina, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Kansas City, New England, St. Louis, Tennessee.

Consider this week to be the first course for the feast of the stretch run. It's all about who's the hungriest.

GAMES OF THE MIDWEEK

Here's hoping that neither Turkey Day game does anything to spoil my appetite. ...

Green Bay at Detroit. The Packers hope they won't see backup quarterback Mike McMahon in this one, because he sparked the Lions to a near-upset in these teams' Thanksgiving tilt two years ago.

Starter Joey Harrington has gone through a bad sophomore slump playing with a depleted receiving corps. Through all their injuries, however, the Lions are playing hard under Steve Mariucci. Harrington's season might have been much better with James Stewart and Charles Rogers both healthy. Their secondary also has few able men left standing.

Brett Favre and Ahman Green will be too much to handle most of the day, but the Lions' pride of playing at home for the holiday will allow them to keep it close, as they'll have some success moving the ball on the Packers' defense. Packers 24, Lions 21.

Miami at Dallas. The Cowboys' defense hasn't played this well, since, well, current Dolphins coach Dave Wannstedt ran the unit under Jimmy Johnson. Wannstedt has been far less than Parcellian on Miami's sidelines, as his talented team is barely clinging to the AFC's second wild-card spot.

It's time for Jay Fiedler to lead the offense, for Junior Seau to lead the defense, and for Ricky Williams to carry them (25 to 30 times per game) into the playoffs. Bill Parcells' team doesn't have many veteran leaders, but his young defense is playing beyond its inexperience and will be ready for Williams.

The Dolphins should win this game, based on personnel. Coaching, however, is an asset that overcomes many obstacles in this league, and Parcells has a decisive edge over Wannstedt. Cowboys 17, Dolphins 16.

AFC GAME OF THE WEEK

New England at Indianapolis. It's hard to pick against either team, because among coaches Bill Belichick and Tony Dungy and clutch quarterbacks Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, they're all great at what they do. Belichick and Dungy will keep each other's offenses in check with smart coverage schemes, while Brady and Manning both will find a way to make some big plays.

The X-factor that will allow the home-domed team to win a close one is the reemergence of Edgerrin James. The Pats don't have anyone comparably dominant in their backfield. James will provide a big assist to Manning, who will solve yet another top pass defense in crunch time. Colts 21, Patriots 20.

NFC GAME OF THE WEEK

Philadelphia at Carolina. Donovan McNabb has become red-hot in his team's six-game winning streak by spreading the ball around to numerous receivers without trying to do too much. His mobility within the Eagles' West Coast passing game is a bad matchup for the Panthers.

McNabb will make Carolina's vaunted front four worry about containment and his scrambling will negate its pass rush. He also will dump the ball off to his backs and receivers quickly so they can get into open field against a vulnerable back seven.

Stephen Davis will get his yards against the Eagles' struggling run defense, but McNabb will outplay Jake Delhomme to make it seven in a row. Eagles 23, Panthers 13.

SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK

Minnesota at St. Louis. The over-under on turnovers in this game should be a dozen. These teams are similar in that their respective offenses can be very explosive -- or very giveaway-prone. This might not be the traditional shootout in the sense that interceptions and fumbles from either side could lead to some touchdowns from each other's speed-based opportunistic defenses.

Marc Bulger and Daunte Culpepper both have struggled over the past month, so the quarterback who makes the better decisions will win. Bulger is back home where he usually roosts, and that will be the difference in this crucial game for both the NFC West and NFC North races. Rams 28, Vikings 26.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati over Pittsburgh. Explain this one to me, Vegas people. The Bengals are playing great football of late and, at 6-5, are tied for first place in the AFC North. The Steelers are 4-7, needing to win out just to have a shot at the playoffs. Yet Pittsburgh is a three-point favorite.

The Bengals still get the Rodney Dangerfield treatment. I guess they need to beat a few more undefeated teams, and Jon Kitna and Chad Johnson need to combine for three more touchdowns in a game just so they can be one-point underdogs.

The Steelers are looking for answers that won't arrive until next season. Coach of the year Marvin Lewis, this season belongs to your team. Bengals 24, Steelers 21.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Houston over Atlanta. Charley Casserly and Dom Capers, you have something good going. Your offense is set for the future thanks to rookies Andre Johnson and Domanick Davis. Your 3-4 defense has plenty of holes, but considering how you draft and pick up free agents, many of those will be filled next season.

This doesn't seem like a true lock, but after last week's "Denver over Chicago" debacle, I'm going in a different direction. The Texans still haven't scored 30 points in a game -- thanks to Johnson and Davis, it will finally happen against the league's worst defense. Houston has beaten better teams and won't miss this chance to build on something big for 2004. Texans 30, Falcons 21.

REST OF THE WEEK

Buffalo at NY Giants. As bad as Buffalo's offense has been playing, it's not having nearly as many problems as the Giants', meaning it will get more solid play from its defense. The Bills' playoff hopes are slim, but Travis Henry still is running hard despite whatever ails him and will help sink the hosts to 1-5 at home. Bills 20, Giants 17.

San Francisco at Baltimore. Note to Niners defensive coordinator Jim Mora Jr.: Make sure you cover Marcus Robinson. The Ravens' wideout went wild for four TDs last week, but Anthony Wright will struggle to connect with any of his targets against San Francisco's aggressive blitz package. Terrell Owens might have a Robinson-type day against a Baltimore secondary that gave up five scores to the Seahawks last week. 49ers 21, Ravens 19.

Arizona at Chicago. I apologize to both teams -- they both have gotten enough veteran quarterback play, special teams and defense to make things interesting in most games and pull some upsets along the way. That's how close the NFL is in terms of team-by-team talent. I thought this game would be for the No. 1 draft pick, but now it has good undercard potential. Chicago will carry its momentum from the stunner at Denver into another strong all-around performance at new Solider Field. Bears 20, Cardinals 17.

New Orleans at Washington. It's funny -- every time Steve Spurrier rededicates his game plan to the running game, the Redskins become a tough team to beat. Considering that likely starter Tim Hasselbeck's strength is delivering short, quick West Coast-like passes, look for more of a backfield committee that moves the ball efficiently and helps limit the chances for Deuce McAllister to bang through Washington's suspect run defense. Redskins 23, Saints 20.

Denver at Oakland. The Broncos were in hibernation against the Bears, and can't afford to keep sleeping against the rival Raiders, whose season is now reduced to a pure spoiler's role. If Mike Shanahan can get his team refocused against any opponent, however, it's his former employers in Oakland. Look for Jake Plummer to rebound and play like he did in the teams' Week 3 Monday night clash. Broncos 27, Raiders 17.

Kansas City at San Diego. LaDainian Tomlinson will find some room to rumble against the Chiefs' porous run defense, but he won't keep up with what Trent Green and KC's receivers will do against the Chargers' pitiful pass defense. And oh yeah, for some extra kicks, Kansas City also will throw a bit of Priest Holmes into its offense. Chiefs 34, Chargers 17.

Cleveland at Seattle. Everything except a win went well for Matt Hasselbeck this past week -- he threw for five touchdown passes, his brother Tim got a chance to perform and his sister-in-law Elisabeth got a gig at The View. That's quite a Thanksgiving week for one family, and Matt will get his team back on track at home by helping it roast the Browns. Seahawks 24, Browns 17.

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville. This sunny matchup reminds me of the upcoming college bowl season. For the Bucs to become playoff-eligible, they will need more than this game, win No. 6. Tampa Bay needs to run the table and won't take the cross-state Jags lightly; the Bucs will work hard to shut down Fred Taylor and make rookie Byron Leftwich force passes into their cover 2 zone. Buccaneers 20, Jaguars 10.

Tennessee at NY Jets. The Titans proved they weren't all about Steve McNair in rallying from 21 down to roll past the Falcons last week, despite playing without him for most of the game. Eddie George is just as gritty as the team's MVP quarterback, and he will keep them rolling vs. New York's league-worst run defense if McNair isn't ready to go. Chad Pennington will have another good game, but his team will come up well short. Titans 33, Jets 23.

STATS OF THE WEEK

Week 12 record straight up: 13-3 (See, no more triskaidekaphobia)

Week 12 record vs. the spread: 7-9 (Two more lucky numbers)

Season record straight up: 113-63 (Another 13 spot)

Season record vs. the spread: 82-93 (The "me" decade)

Vinnie Iyer is the NFL projects editor for The Sporting News. Email him at viyer@sportingnews.com.