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Advanced stats and our QBs, 2015 edition


Tsailand

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For us uninformed, what do ANY/A and DVOA stand for?

 

ANYA is I think Adjusted Net Yards divided by Passing Attempts or something.  So it's better than yards per pass because it includes sacks, interceptions, touchdowns, etc.

 

DVOA = Defense (adjusted) Value Over Average.

 

So Football Outsiders will average out what QB's have been doing against a neutral defense in each down and distance, with 'X' time left on the clock.  And if you outperform what the average QB does, great.  So the higher the value, the better you are over the average QB play.  That's VOA (Value over Average), the DVOA part comes from accounting your strength of schedule.  So lighting up the Saints defense wouldn't count as much as lighting up the Broncos defense.

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Bringing this thread back up.  Not bothering with game-by-game stats since Cousins is clearly no longer on a game-to-game leash.

 

 

Current rankings after fourteen games:

ANY/A: 6.72, 12th of of 35.  Carr is 11th and Smith is 13th.

QBR: 66.0, 12th out of 32. Eli is 11th and Brady is 13th.

DVOA (through 13 games): 11th out of 33. Brees is 10th and Rivers is 12th.

 

 

 

For salary purposes, the main comparison is Fitzpatrick, who becomes a free agent in March.  His rankings:

ANY/A: 14th.

QBR: 9th.

DVOA: 13th.

The cap hit number for the #15 QB (by salary) in the NFL in 2016 is $17m.  Obviously that will change (go higher) as players are signed. That means the top 1/2 of QBs are making $17+m next year. One would think that Cousins cap hit for nest year should be significant.

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I feel like comparisons to a veteran QB like Fitzpatrick aren't the best.  You know who he is and what he does on the field.  Kirk's last 8 games are far better than his first 6 games.

 

We don't know what Kirk can do.

 

Maybe for these stats and taking them in multi-game increments, or maybe turning them into a graph?

 

Fitzpatrick has actually been on a hot streak of his own recently.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Final rankings on the season for Cousins:

 

DVOA: 6th of 37

QBR: 6th of 33

ANY/A: 8th of 35

 

(The different sites require different minimum numbers of attempts to be ranked)

 

 

 

Playoffs:

DVOA: 5th of 8

QBR: 5th of 8

ANY/A: Couldn't find playoff rankings, but his ANY/A was 5.58, which would be considered bad in the regular season.

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