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Picks, Pats, And Pardons (Week 7)


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Season: 59-33
Last Week: 11-4
ATS: 10-13-1 (Last Week: 1-3)
Lock: 2-4
Redskins: 4-1

Another strong week SU, but was unable to capitalize on my momentum with my picks ATS from last week. The Bengals had my lock, well "locked," and then went to sleep and almost lost the game outright. Cincy continues to be a team that appears tantalizingly close, yet seemingly far away. I was only one point off in predicting the final score in the Giants-Bears game and one point off in both directions picking the Redskins-Cowboys game. I did well picking some 50/50 games last week, correctly hitting on the Packers, Panthers, and Patriots. The only game where I was left kicking myself was going against my gut and choosing the Jets over the Steelers.

This Week:

Seattle at Arizona: Seattle is very good, but I can't tell if they are missing a little something or if they are just a tad bored right now. Their offense is very blah and they are a Matt Schaub meltdown from being somewhat pedestrian right now. I am going to say that their recent trend continues and that they win, but do so in ugly fashion this Thursday night.

Seahawks 19, Cardinals 16

New England at New York Jets: Geno Smith has been brutally bad in two of his past three games. But the one in between he was quite good. He appears to be having a rookie season that is more typical of what we've seen over the years as opposed to these monster numbers and results guys like RG3 and Andrew Luck put up in 2012. I want to pick New England to roll on Sunday, but the Jets always play them tough and there might not be enough duct tape in the universe to patch these Pats together right now. Still, I like them to find a way...again.

Patriots 18, Jets 16

San Diego at Jacksonville: The Jags managed to not embarrass themselves last week, but by the way some media pundits were spinning it, you'd have thought they actually won the game. Let's not forget that losing by 16 in an NFL game is still a pretty wide margin and they don't give out participation ribbons on this level. The Chargers have been very solid thus far, but they are a team I am not buying. I think Jax wins a game this year, and this is one of 3-4 where I think they will have a decent shot.

Chargers 26, Jaguars 21

Houston at Kansas City: The Chiefs are good, but I'm not buying them as a #2 or #3 team in any power rankings just yet. They have a very stout defense and they run the ball and play intelligently. Alex Smith makes almost no errors and if you show up and wait around for KC to beat themselves, you will be waiting until the scoreboard shows you lost. I like this team and absolutely believe they will be in the playoffs come January. But I don't love them and I think their record is tad out of whack with who they really are. Like the rest of the world, I am wholly unimpressed with the Texans, but I am going to roll the dice here and say that this becomes the ultimate law of averages games going both ways.

Texans 20, Chiefs 17

Cincinnati at Detroit: The Bengals were my surprise AFC team and the Lions were my surprise NFC team. So far, they are both in a very nice position. However, the Bengals continue to find ways to make you doubt their long term prospects. They have been beyond shaky on the road and their defense has been curiously suspect in said road games. A suspect defense is not something you want facing an explosive Lions team. I'm on the fence here, but will roll with what we've seen so far and take the home team.

Lions 27, Bengals 23

Buffalo at Miami: I'd say it's a shame the Bills are missing EJ Manuel right now because the rest of the team has been doing reasonably well, but considering Thad Lewis put forth a solid effort last week, I'm not sure that would be accurate. The Bills are an improving team, but they are not yet contenders and a rested Dolphins team will take it to them this week.

Dolphins 24, Bills 16

Chicago at Washington: The Redskins can't beat the Bears playing identically to the way they played last week in Dallas or how they've played so far this year. But I've seen just enough to believe that Washington is improving ever so slowly. At home, against what I believe to be a mildly overrated opponent, I think the Redskins squeak one out.

Redskins 23, Bears 20

Dallas at Philadelphia: Tough call here; Dallas is missing a key player on both sides of the ball and the Eagles are missing Vick. So far, inserting Nick Foles in his place hasn't slowed down their attack, but you wonder if at some point lacking the threat of the run from the QB will allow defenses to adjust to the other things Chip Kelly is doing. Sometimes games don't go anywhere near according to plan, but I just don't see how this one doesn't turn into a shootout.

Cowboys 31, Eagles 28

St. Louis at Carolina: The Rams have been all over the place so far in 2013 and the Panthers haven't been too far behind. The Carolina offense has multiple personalities, shifting between various levels of efficiency and total ineptitude. Not exactly sure what to make of either of these squads at this point, but I'll stick with the best unit on the field-- the Panthers D, to win the game.

Panthers 24, Rams 19

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Greg Schiano told Tampa fans this week that they should stick with them through the hard times, but that they will welcome them back once they start winning again if they do choose to abandon ship. I don't think coach Schiano has to worry one bit at forming a welcoming committee.

Falcons 27, Bucs 17

San Francisco at Tennessee: A surprisingly strong showing from the Titans last week in Seattle. The Tennessee defense is proving to be no pushover and there doesn't seem to be a major drop off from Jake Locker to Ryan Fitzpatrick. But something tells me the Niners defense doles out some punishment this Sunday.

49ers 26, Titans 13

Cleveland at Green Bay: The Browns have guys that can cover and the Packers may only have one guy this week that can get open after being crushed by injuries last week in Baltimore. Factor in missing Clay Matthews, and I think the number is off on this game.

Packers 25, Browns 20

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Can't tell if the Steelers made any real changes over their bye week or if it was just a random win in a season where wins will be few and far between. I predicted the Ravens to have a rollercoaster season that ultimately lands them 8-9 wins and no playoffs. If that theory is correct, this seems like a spot where they would eek out a victory.

Ravens 22, Steelers 20

Denver at Indianapolis: As if this game needed any more theater, Jim Irsay provided some nice nuggets this week for fans and media to chew on. Part of me thinks that Peyton comes out on fire, backed by his teammates who will be primed to show up for him in this spot even more than usual. And part of me thinks Andrew Luck steps into the first big spotlight of his career and makes a mark as well. Heck, I'll say they both happen, but that the Colts defense ultimately has fewer answers.

Broncos 37, Colts 28

Minnesota at New York Giants: You know the Giants aren't heading for 0-16. And if you believe that, then when else would you pick them?

Giants 29, Vikings 24

Against the Spread (Lock listed first)

1. Broncos (-6.5) at Colts
2. Browns (+10) at Packers
3. 49ers (-4) at Titans
4. Ravens (+1.5) at Steelers

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I agree with 90% of your picks. Except for KC, Their defense is unreal.. And I disagree with the Rams losing to the Panthers. Since the Rams gave up the spread offense they have really turned their season around.

Other then those 2 games I think you nailed it.

STU I have been killing it this season. ATS I have been getting killed this season.

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I agree with 90% of your picks. Except for KC, Their defense is unreal.. And I disagree with the Rams losing to the Panthers. Since the Rams gave up the spread offense they have really turned their season around.

Other then those 2 games I think you nailed it.

STU I have been killing it this season. ATS I have been getting killed this season.

Vegas cleans up on the NFL.. College is much, much easier--- I have a buddy that feeds me college picks and he is 21-10 this year. Of course I've undone a lot of that on Sundays :)

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I need a buddy like that. 21-10 ATS is amazing.

He does a week worth of research each week and is crazy disciplined. One week he only posted two games because those were the only ones he liked. Of course 21-10 is unsustainable, but he is going to have a monster year even if he goes .500 the rest of the way.

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