Trade Perspective: Past 2nd Round Picks

[adam@section118]

Good thread.

My only two points would be:

1. McNabb has 1 year left. So if he is a one year rental it could be a expensive one year rental.

2. If he does not work out and really has a bad year, especially if we give him a fat contract, then it is just more of the same.

I actually do not hate the trade, I just hope there are more moves to come. (mostly addressing the O-line)

[gorebd82]

Looking at the second round picks, most of them have been or are solid starters in the league. The only exceptions I saw were Claridge (blew out his knee, now dead), Lehman (a backup with the Lions) and Williams (suspended for drugs), which is really what you expect out of 2nd round picks.

The problem with not having picks is that it changes the opportunity cost. For example, if we had our 2nd round pick last year, maybe we do draft a tackle, since most of them went off the board after the 2nd round. Unger, Loadholt and Vollmer could have been options for us, but we missed the opportunity because we didn't have the pick.

I disagree with your first paragraph. Idrees Bashir and Shaun Cody are not solid starters in the league. The Colts were hoping to have something, but Bashir never lived up to the hype. Lofton had a solid rookie year, but he's a player that can certainly be upgraded. We have to wait and see how Alphonso Smith turns out, but he's an undersized CB that the Broncos gave up their first rounder for so he might be a guy that never lives up to expectations (however unfair they may be).

As far as opportunity cost, I feel you. But in certain situations it is worth the risk. And as I've evolved as a fan, I feel like getting a QB or protecting your QB are the situations where it is worth it to give up 1st and 2nd round picks. That's why I liked the Gaither and McNabb options. And if Gaither were 30, I'd be against it. Since McNabb is a 6 time Pro Bowler that has been the best QB in our division for the last decade, I think that the potential reward balances out the opportunity cost of getting a decent starter.

A more insightful, and more laborious, approach would be to show the pick at #37 and the next 15/20 players drafted overall to account for team drafting variances and to show what pool the team was selecting from.

I agree, but honestly just didn't have time for all that. This was just a snapshot to gauge the talent level that tends to be available in this range.

I think another way to do analysis is see how well the 2nd rounder QB's have done.

Thats definitely a good way to consider it. I'm much rather have McNabb for 5 years than take a risk on Colt McCoy or Tebow.

What your stats don't state however is the talent pool in this year's draft is a lot deeper than previous years. In fact, experts (including Mel Kiper Jr.) are stating our 2nd round pick is really a late first.

I agree that there's first round talent available, but they all have warts. You also have to consider our needs. The only way we'd be able to get good value in the range would be to take a defender or RB or offensive lineman. This combination though is the best solution to the QB/LT needs. If we took OL in the 2nd, then we would have to take Jimmy Clausen in the 1st. If we took OL in the 1st, we'd have to take Colt McCoy or Tebow in the 2nd. McNabb and Okung are the best combo for this 5 year stretch under Mike Shanahan. If we took 2 offensive linemen or a OL/defense combo, we'd still have the worst QB situation in our division.

Actually, I'd compare it more to getting Brunell. Chew on that for a while.

I kind of feel you, but the difference is that McNabb's physical ability is far superior to what Brunell had. Much more mobility and a much stronger arm (both distance and velocity). So even as McNabb has lost some of his running ability, he's maintained a superb arm and we've seen his game adapt each year to rely less on his legs. And as we see from Favre and Warner, that great arm strength can really extend your career. And the thing about McNabb is that even as his athleticism fades, it will still be above average because he started out with so many more gifts than most. Even though Favre can't run like he used to, he still can move around well behind the LOS. And McNabb still has more athleticism than Elway did at this point in his career.

Good thread.

My only two points would be:

1. McNabb has 1 year left. So if he is a one year rental it could be a expensive one year rental.

2. If he does not work out and really has a bad year, especially if we give him a fat contract, then it is just more of the same.

I actually do not hate the trade, I just hope there are more moves to come. (mostly addressing the O-line)

I agree with what you say, the contract is the shakiest part of the deal. He'll get a new contract with hopes that he can maintain his performance. But then again, that's the risk you take any time you sign a player to a new deal.

The point of all of this is that compared to the likely caliber of player we could have drafted, McNabb is a great deal.

[TheLongshot]

I disagree with your first paragraph. Idrees Bashir and Shaun Cody are not solid starters in the league.

There was a "was". Sure, Bashir wasn't retained, but he did start the whole time he was with the Colts. Cody starts with the Texans after toiling as a backup in Detroit.

As far as opportunity cost, I feel you. But in certain situations it is worth the risk. And as I've evolved as a fan, I feel like getting a QB or protecting your QB are the situations where it is worth it to give up 1st and 2nd round picks. That's why I liked the Gaither and McNabb options. And if Gaither were 30, I'd be against it. Since McNabb is a 6 time Pro Bowler that has been the best QB in our division for the last decade, I think that the potential reward balances out the opportunity cost of getting a decent starter.

It is a very short-term move in my view. Expensive, and potentially fraught with issues, especially if we can't address the other issues this team has.

I kind of feel you, but the difference is that McNabb's physical ability is far superior to what Brunell had. Much more mobility and a much stronger arm (both distance and velocity). So even as McNabb has lost some of his running ability, he's maintained a superb arm and we've seen his game adapt each year to rely less on his legs. And as we see from Favre and Warner, that great arm strength can really extend your career. And the thing about McNabb is that even as his athleticism fades, it will still be above average because he started out with so many more gifts than most. Even though Favre can't run like he used to, he still can move around well behind the LOS. And McNabb still has more athleticism than Elway did at this point in his career.

We also spent a lot more in trade for McNabb and will probably spend a lot more in money to keep him around, so the comparison is still apt.

Oh, and Brunell also got very nicked up before Jacksonville got rid of him.