Russian Intel

[tex]

Russian Intel -- Iraq War

Translated by Venik's Aviation

March 29, 2003, 0924hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST)

Moscow - During the past day the situation on the US-Iraqi front remained largely unchanged. The US is continuing to reinforce the attack group near Karabela for a thrust toward Baghdad. By the morning of March 29 up to 20,000 coalition troops were massed in the area of Karabela. This forces includes up to 200 tanks, 150 artillery systems and more than 250 helicopters. The order for the attack will be given by the coalition commander Gen. Tommy Franks, who, according to intercepted radio communications, will personally inspect the troops during the next several hours.

Around 1900hrs yesterday an Apache attack helicopter crashed. Intercepted radio communications show that the helicopter was heavily damaged in a combat mission. The helicopter's pilot lost control during landing and the helicopter crashed, causing serious damage to another helicopter that landed earlier.

The coalition troops have so far failed to take An-Nasiriya despite the categorical orders from the command and more than 800 combat missions by the strike aircraft. All attempts to break through the Iraqi defense were met by Iraqi counterattacks. After 24 hours of fighting the coalition troops only managed to advance several hundred meters in two sectors near An-Nasiriya at the cost of 4 destroyed armored personnel carriers, no less than 3 Marines killed by sniper and mortar fire, 10 wounded and 2 missing in action. The exact Iraqi losses are being determined.

The Americans have also failed to advance near An-Najaf. Every coalition attack was met by massive artillery barrages from the Iraqi side. Later during the day the Iraqis mounted a counterattack, throwing the US forces back by 1.5-2 kilometers. No fewer than 10 Marines were killed or wounded. After exchanging fire for six hours both warring sides remained in the same positions. Iraqi losses in this area are estimated to be 20 killed and up to 40 wounded.

Near Basra the British troops pushed the Iraqi defense lines on the Fao peninsula but were unable to capture the entire peninsula. The British advance was a maximum of 4 kilometers from the highway leading to Basra. Radio intercepts show that in this attack the Iraqis shot down a British helicopter. Additionally, two tanks and one APCs were destroyed by landmines. At least 2 [british] servicemen were killed, around 20 were wounded and 15 were captured by the Iraqis.

Exchange of fire continued in the area of the Basra airport. The Iraqis destroyed one coalition APC, wounding two coalition soldiers. The Iraqi losses are difficult to estimate, but available information suggests that up to 20 Iraqi soldiers and local militia members might have been killed in the air and artillery strikes.

All attempts by the British troops to break through the Iraqi defenses from the south along the Al-Arab river have yielded no results. The British command reported that it is unable to storm Basra with the available forces and will require no less than two additional brigades and at least five additional artillery battalions. Thus, to avoid further casualties the British are adopting defensive tactics, while trying to maintain a tight blockade around Basra and trying to improve their positions with small localized attacks. The British are also maintaining pressure on the Iraqi positions on the Fao peninsula.

The psychological levels among the city's residents, according to interviews, is far from critical. The Iraqi military made several public announcements to the residents offering them a chance to leave the city. However, most of the residents do not want to leave, fearing example of the Palestinian refugees, who, after losing their homes, gained pariah status in the Arab world. Basra's residents were extremely depressed by the video footage aired by the coalition command showing Iraqis on the occupied territories fighting for food and water being distributed by the coalition soldiers. The city's population views this as a sample of what awaits them if the Americans come...

At the Al-Kuwait airport the unloading of the 4th Mechanized Infantry Division is continuing and is expected to be completed by the night of April 1. During a night flight one of the US military transport aircraft requested an emergency landing. What happened to the plane is still being determined.

Currently the coalition command is deciding how better use the 4th Infantry Division. The complete deployment [of the division] and preparations for combat are expected to take at least 10 days. However, the combat units require immediate reinforcements and it is possible that the [4th Infantry} Division will be joining combat in stages, as the units become ready. This will mean a considerable reduction of the Division's combat effectiveness.

A report was obtained, prepared by the Al-Kuwait-based [coalition] Psychological Operations Tactical Group for the [Coalition] Special Ground Forces Command. The report analyzed the effectiveness of the information and propaganda war. According to the report, analysis of the television broadcasts, intercepted radio communications, interrogations of Iraqi POWs show that psychologically the Iraqis are now "more stable and confident" that they were during the last days before the war. This, according to the report, is due primarily to the coalition's numerous military failures.

"...Following nervousness and depression [of the Iraqis] during the first days of the war we can now observe a burst of patriotic and nationalistic feelings. ...There has been a sharp increase in the number of Iraqi refugees, who left the country before the war, returning to Iraq. A "cult of war" against the US and the UK is now emerging among the Iraqis...", the report states. [Reverse translation from Russian]

[Coalition] analysts believe that if this attitude of the Iraqis is not changed within the next 7 days, a "resistance ideology" may take over the Iraqi minds, making the final [Coalition] victory even more difficult. In response to this report the US Army Psychological Operations command decided to combine all Iraqi POWs into large groups and to distribute the resulting video footage to the world media. A more active use of the Iraqi opposition was suggested for propaganda work in the occupied villages. The same opposition members will be used to create video footage of the "repented" Iraqi POWs and footage of the local [iraqi] population "opposing Saddam."

Radio communications intercepted during the last five days suggest that the coalition is using Israeli airfields for conducting night air strikes against Iraq. Combat aircraft are taking off regularly from the [israeli] Hatzerim and the Navatim airbases do not return to the same bases but fly toward the border with Jordan while maintaining complete radio silence.

Possibly these are just Israeli Air Force exercises, However, [Russian] radio intercept and radar units observe increased intensity of radio communications coming from the Jordanian air force and air defense communication centers during such overflights, as well as changes in the operating modes of the US Army "Patriot" tracking radars deployed in Jordan. This indicates the Israeli airbases are used as forward airfield or that some of the coalition air force units are based there. Normally the IAF F-15I fighter-bombers and A-4N strike aircraft operate from the Hatzerim airbase and the F-16 fighter-bombers operate from the Nevatim base.

Experts believe that these airbases may be used by the F-117 stealth bombers "officially" based at the Al-Udaid airbase in Qatar. Using these two locations minimizes the risk to the F-117s by allowing them to fly along the left bank of the Euphrates (in the direction of Turkey) and to avoid the dangerous maneuvering over Iraq.

The destruction of the telephone stations in Baghdad did nothing to disrupt the communications of the Iraqi army. The Coalition command acknowledged this fact after analyzing the dense [iraqi] radio traffic. Because of that the USAF was ordered to employ the most powerful available [conventional] munitions against predetermined strategic targets. These attacks will be carried out immediately before renewing ground advance.

(source: iraqwar.ru, 03-29-03, translated by Venik)

[Tarhog]

Talk about an unbiased assessment ....

Obviously can't speak to most of this. But the section discussing how Iraqi artillery is devastating us and preventing our advance is a CROCK. The Iraqi arty units are pretty skilled, but what we do SO much better is counter-arty fire. Any artillery attacks against us can and most likely are triangulated, giving us nearly the exact location the rounds originated from. We can then engage and destroy the offending party by counter-fire from our own artillery, or by air strike. We are extremely effective at this particular capability.

What's the web source for this article, I'd be curious to take a look at it. One of the things this war is going to dramatically demonstrate is who our true allies are, and who they are not. I don't think Russia is going to make the cut.

[PCS]

Found this info in source site.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/03/25/1048354590544.html

An excerpt:

Readers may find the following resource useful, particularly as information coming out of coalition command seems to have been halted. The IRAQWAR.RU analytical center was created recently by a group of journalists and military experts from Russia to provide accurate and up-to-date news and analysis of the war against Iraq. The following is the English translation of the IRAQWAR.RU report based on the Russian military intelligence reports.

Obviously people need to treat all of this with a grain of salt, but looking back through the reports you will see that these folks have accurately "assessed" intelligence and delivered verdicts which have largely shown to be *true* (given details on whether it was Iraqi fire or "accidents" etc) over the last few days. I think it is compelling but must admit I am far from a military expert.

There is no point going to Iraqwar.ru unless you speak Russian. Fortunately http://www.aeronautics.ru have translated these reports into English ... However, because the site is either extremely busy, or under some sort of continuing Denial of Service attack it is a little flaky at the moment. For that reason I've included the text of the latest "briefing" below:

Here is his introduction to today's report:

If these reports are correct the Coalition are taking a lot more casualties than expected, and Iraq is putting up a much more determined defence than imagined. As always, I would advise that all of this is taken with a grain of salt. However, the fact that Coalition Command is saying it has taken significant casualties, but not saying how many, is not encouraging.

However, to support it I have heard rumours that Bush has yelled at Putin on the telephone over some of the military capabilities that Iraq seems to have. The rumours further say that some Iraqi forces have equipment such as night fighting gear and munitions which have the capability to penetrate the formidable armour of the M1 Abrams Tanks. This is a rumour.

Here's the source site. There's an English translation option on the top of the page.

http://www1.iraqwar.ru/

It would appear as though this site is being read alot in Asia and other pots in the world. Go figure. It's being sourced by several online "news" sites as well. I claims to get it's information from the GRU which is examined and inerpretated by several "experts". GRU, interestingly enough, is providing info to Pravda and the Moscow times. Suspect, (based on reading other articles on those to sites.... ), that what the GRU is providing publicly and what they have privately are 2 different things. Some propoganda methods that they are well versed in.