North Korean Missile Threat Exaggerated?

[redman]

This article is written by a member of the Federation of American Scientists, which is decidedly dovish.

Friday, February 14, 2003

North Korean threat exaggerated

IVAN OELRICH

SCIENTIST

CIA Director George Tenet told Congress Wednesday that North Korea has a missile that can reach the United States, even though North Korea has not yet demonstrated this capability.

Coupled with the crisis of Pyongyang's nuclear weapons, this has led many to believe North Korea could strike the American West Coast with nuclear weapons.

Yet this is not the case. Events in North Korea are indeed worrying, but the public debate is not helped by exaggerating the threat.

Most of our information about North Korean missiles comes from observing flight tests; so we know much about the shorter-range missiles that the North Koreans have flown. But Pyongyang has not tested intercontinental-range missiles. Without flight tests, U.S. intelligence analysts can only estimate the sophistication of North Korean technology and the calculated range of any large missile is extremely sensitive to these estimates.

How far a missile can deliver a payload is determined by the efficiency of the engines, the amount of fuel and the weight of the rocket structure and payload. For any long-range rocket, fuel makes up the great majority of the initial weight. The structure is the great majority of the remainder and the payload is typically a tiny fraction of the total initial weight.

Thus, small changes in the estimates of the required structural weight of the rocket or the efficiency of the engines translate into large changes in the mass left for payload. In general, as the range of the rocket increases, the calculated performance becomes ever more sensitive to these technical assumptions.

It is important to distinguish between what is known about North Korean missiles and what is extrapolation. The North Korean short-range SCUD has been exported and the United States almost certainly has access to samples of the missile. The single-stage No Dong missile has been tested and also revealed much of its capability.

The North Koreans flight tested a three-stage space launch vehicle in August 1998. Most analysts believe the first two stages are the equivalent of the intermediate-range Taepo-Dong 1 missile. Radar tracking of that single test revealed the performance of the first two stages and, with an estimate of the mass of the third stage, the overall performance of a hypothetical two-stage version can be calculated. (The third stage apparently failed, possibly exploded, and the satellite payload did not reach orbit.)

The so-called Taepo-Dong 2 -- the missile that is claimed to be able to reach America -- is even more problematic. The second stage could be the same as the first stage of the Taepo-Dong 1, sitting atop a new, bigger and as yet publicly unknown first stage. Until something is flight-tested, performance of the missile will remain speculation about what the North Koreans could build with available technology.

A total assessment of the North Korean ballistic missile threat also requires some knowledge of the possible payloads. If the missiles are intended as nuclear weapon-delivery vehicles, then advances in nuclear bomb design can have as much of an effect as advances in missile technology.

Unfortunately, the United States knows even less about North Korea's possible nuclear weapons than it does about its missile technology. But our government estimates that North Korea missiles can reach the United States with a nuclear warhead assume quite sophisticated nuclear weapon designs.

Until the North Koreans flight-test the missile, it is too early speak with any certainty about their ability to reach the Pacific Northwest and government officials should be more careful to qualify their estimates of dangers facing the nation.

Ivan Oelrich is a senior research associate with the Federation of American Scientists.

[inmate running the asylum]

Well one thing we know for sure is that their scud missiles work and that they are small enough to be launched from truck beds. We also know that these scud missiles can be tipped with a nuclear warhead.

So in the event of hostilities with the U.S., what is to prevent the North Koreans from launching scud missiles from closer in to the United States, from say the deck of surface ships? And what about their submarines? Most people do not know it, but North Korea has around 100 submarines, one of the largest submarine fleets in the world.

They definitely pose a serious nuclear threat to the U.S., assuming they have nuclear bombs.

[Burgold]

I agree. The North Koreans are the scariest threat out there. As far as not knowing if their ICBM's work because we haven't seen them tested in that range... that's a very feeble arguement and hardly comforting.