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Money coming in on the skins


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On my Sportsbook, the line started at Skins+3. Yesterday it was at +2.5. Now it is down to +1. Late money is usually a signal of who the professionals like. And apparently they overwhelmingly like the skins. That is a huge line move for a playoff game. :point2sky

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basically when you place a bet there is a spread, you say the bucs will win by MORE than 2.5 points......or you say the Skins will win....

technically when betting against the spread before the game starts the score is

bucs 2.5 skins 0

get it.....?

also there is the over/ under.....


Last year the favorite won 63% and the avg win margin was about 12 points so it seem like a good bet to go FAVORITE everytime however that will oly get you 52-58% on the season, unless you bet big money ever week it'll be tough to make a good profit....

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what is all this vegas 2.5+ stuff? Ive never understood that?? Can someone explain?

If you took the skins earlier in the week you could get 2.5-3 points in your favor. Now it has come down to 1 point. Since the objective of the sportsbook is to get even money on both sides, this means most of the money is coming in on the skins. That is why the line went down to get more people to bet on the Bucs.

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oooo....so say we are playing SF again and we are +10.....

in order for me to win everything....

The redskins have to crush the niners by more than 10? No matter what?

Nope, you've got it backwards but I think you understand nontheless. If we were playing SF again we would be -10 and would have to win by 11 or more to cover the point spread.

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My book offers a MONSTER TEASER. You can move the line 13 points in any direction as long as your parlay 4 teams with it.

Here is my MONSTER TEASER for todays action.

Jan 06, 2006 02:08 PM (02:09:00 AM) Writer:INETUSER Confirmation #:060106140822-1 4 tms Monster TEASER 240/200

201. Redskins (Washington) PS +16 -130 { Pro Ftbll }

201. Redskins (Washington) Ov 23½ -110 { Pro Ftbll }

203. Jaguars (Jacksonville) PS +20½ -110 { Pro Ftbll }

203. Jaguars (Jacksonville) Ov 24 -110 { Pro Ftbll }

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According to this article sudden line moves no matter what time of week(which is the case today) are the pros. Recreational bettors bet smaller and they take longer to move the line.

A "steam move" is the phrase used to describe the line change when a large amount of money goes down on one side of a game in a short period of time. This is usually due to the wise guys making a move on a particular side. After these players choose their side, the bookmakers usually act accordingly by moving their number in an attempt to make the other side look more attractive to other bettors.

"You are going to make as big of a move as you can possibly make because that game is probably not going back to that original number," said Doc from Rio, the head oddsmaker for Skybook, of the line move that comes as a result of a limit bet from a professional player. "Certain guys just know where the line is going. Not that they win or lose every time; but they are right more often than they are wrong."

Steam moves can happen at any time during the week in football. If an opening number is considered a weak one by the pros, they will attack it immediately and the line will shift early in the week. In some cases the wise guys wait for the public to bet the number to a certain point before making their move. Public money takes some time to move the line. The pros get it moving in a hurry.

"Usually professional money moves (the line) around town pretty quickly," said Jay Kornegay, executive director of race and sports for the Las Vegas Hilton. "All the sudden - boom, boom, boom, boom - all the sixes are gone. The public money takes a little longer. It accumulates. Maybe because it is just so spread out. Maybe it's (because) we don't respect their opinion as much. It is very rare that the public will bet an underdog. They are always going to bet the better team. So you can always kind of tell by what teams are involved."

Due to the advent of the Don Best Odds Service, which is used by most sports books in the industry; bookies can keep a "real time" tab on the action at competing shops. If they see a game move ½ point in the same direction at a couple of books in a matter of minutes, they will often chose to move their number before they risk a limit bet by a professional or syndicate player on the same game. As Doc from Rio mentioned, the pros are usually on the right side.

Public money tends to come in the day before a game or on the day of the game. Professionals take the line when it suits them best. Line moves that take place early in the week are almost exclusively a result of "smart action." In addition, line moves of more than ½ a point (if no injuries or weather situations are involved) are usually a result of the wise guys.

"The best way to know (if a line move is a steam move) is to check the opening line against the game day line," commented Erick Vill, head linesmaker for Millennium Sports. "If a line moved only ½ point, that was due to the (public) action of the book. But if the line moved one or more points, then you know the big syndicate player played it. The big moves in the NFL usually take place before Sunday."

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