Skins24 Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 It's looking now like the temps will remain below freezing for most of the day Thursday so all the ice we'll see will be sticking around... ...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST THURSDAY MORNING TO CAPE HATTERAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF WARM AIR WILL FLOW NORTH ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP ARCTIC AIR TRAPPED IN PLACE AT GROUND LEVEL. PRESENT INDICATION SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY START AS SNOW THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE WARMTH ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY MELT THE PRECIPITATION AS IT FALLS...AND THEN RE-FREEZE AT IT REACHES THE GROUND. THUS...SOME ICING PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. ACROSS THE TIP OF SOUTHERN MARYLAND...IT MAY WARM SUFFICIENTLY AS THE SURFACE FOR ALL PRECIPITATION TO TURN TO RAIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS TOWARD LONG ISLAND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRAWN SOUTH TO CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO DETERMINE EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES OR AMOUNTS. WINTER STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW. For the first time, I hope it doesn't happen. I have a final on Thursday....if school is cancelled (or delayed) the make up date is SUNDAY. If I miss the Cowboys game I'll go crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rincewind Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 It's looking now like the temps will remain below freezing for most of the day Thursday so all the ice we'll see will be sticking around...For the first time, I hope it doesn't happen. I have a final on Thursday....if school is cancelled (or delayed) the make up date is SUNDAY. If I miss the Cowboys game I'll go crazy. eww... Sunday make up day - that sucks bro. Here's hoping you can take it Thursday :fingersx: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leonard Washington Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 i doubt its going to transpire...where is jbooma or whoever that guy is who does the extremeskins weather reports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skins24 Posted December 13, 2005 Author Share Posted December 13, 2005 i doubt its going to transpire...where is jbooma or whoever that guy is who does the extremeskins weather reports? It's Johnny And why do you doubt? This has been in the forecast for a while. The only uncertainty was will it or when will it change to rain. As the date draws closer it's looking more and more likely that it won't, or if it does only briefly. The cold air is just too thick... From the NWS: looking more like winter weather will return to the County warning forecast area. Strong surface hipres will be camped out Wednesday. Upa pttn amplified but progressive. Wednesday looks like a nice day...albeit cold. None probability of precipitation. Mean layer relative humidity on the low side...though some middle-High Deck clouds should spill in from the west as rtn flow commences. Will blend MOS temperatures. Warm air advection starts Wednesday night...and continues in earnest through Thursday...W/ 30+ knots 800 mb jet. However...placement and strength of surface high evokes thoughts of a real good cold air damming scenario. Dont forsee how surface wedges will be dislodged before Thursday night...when energy from northern stream low transfers to the coast. Here/S where NAM/GFS solutions vary. Track of coastal low pretty consistent...but the strength varies. And of course...strength of coastal system will contrl how much cold air can be drawn southward as the secondary systm takes over. So...the opportunity for warm sector to spread northward looks to be quite limited at the surface. But...W/o an area of lopres at 800 mb...expect temperatures aloft to warm. H10-8 and h10-5 tknss fit the pttn well...suggesting snow at first...then a possibly a lot of freezing rain-- depending upon quantitative precipitation forecast. With room for models to wiggle...dont wish to narrow in on one scenario too precisely just yet. But...will shave about 10 percent off probability of precipitation Wednesday night as isent lift holds back and still plenty of dry air in llvls to overcome...then will bump probability of precipitation into likely for Thursday. Will increase probability of precipitation for Thursday night as well...but Transfer of energy to coast will keep probability of precipitation at chance levels for now. Snow or freezing rain the two most likely ptype at this time. Have kept to mav MOS temperatures...lowering going forecast by as much as 5-8 degree f...in keeping west/ a cad setup. Outlook Special Weather Statement will continue...and will add latest thoughts to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leonard Washington Posted December 13, 2005 Share Posted December 13, 2005 It's JohnnyAnd why do you doubt? This has been in the forecast for a while. The only uncertainty was will it or when will it change to rain. As the date draws closer it's looking more and more likely that it won't, or if it does only briefly. The cold air is just too thick... From the NWS: the weather folks exaggerate too much. just like last week's major storm...i'm still trying to dig my car out. people on the tv/radio talking about buying "supplies" and stocking trunks with food and water just in case. i understand if we lived somewhere that normally gets major snow, but if my car gets stuck or breaks down on the beltway i can make it. :laugh: so i look on weather.com and chance for a "wintry mix" is 70%...i'm nost convinced. i just wished they also emphasize that it might not do anything or be an extra 5min wiping off the car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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