Q and A with some dumb guy in Philly/Miami

[Thinking Skins]

http://www.miami.com/mld/miami/sports/3742514.htm

Q -- What's your best guess on who's going to be playing in the Super Bowl next January?

A -- Would you believe Houston and Detroit? Didn't think so.

The team I like best in the AFC right now is Pittsburgh. The Steelers return 21 of 22 starters from a club that won 13 games and made it to the AFC Championship Game. They ditched erratic kicker Kris Brown and replaced him with veteran Todd Peterson. With the addition of Williams, the Dolphins will make a run. But the thought of a team with Jay Fiedler as its quarterback making it to the Super Bowl goes down harder than beef jerky.

In the NFC, it's a tossup among St. Louis, the Eagles and Jon Gruden's new team, Tampa Bay. Right now, my gut says the Bucs. With Gruden at the helm, the Bucs no longer will be an offensive enigma. He added running back Michael Pittman, wide receivers Keenan McCardell and Joe Jurevicius and tight end Ken Dilger, which should dramatically improve their No. 26 offensive ranking. And the Bucs have been transferred to the soft NFC South, where they should be able to beat Atlanta, Carolina and backsliding New Orleans with one hand tied behind their back.

Q -- What about the St. Louis Rams?

A -- They're still one of the conference's best teams. Still have all that speed. But realignment has hurt their chances of earning the all-important homefield advantage through the playoffs. In the old five-team NFC West, they usually could count on at least six, and usually seven, division wins. But with the continued improvement of the 49ers and the move of Seattle to the NFC West, the Rams' only gimmes will be their two games against the NFC West's fourth team, Arizona.

Q -- Will Steve Spurrier take the NFL by storm?

A -- Not with Danny Wuerffel or Shane Matthews as Washington's quarterback. Spurrier is one of the three or four best offensive coaches in the game, college or pro. His system absolutely can be successful in the NFL. But a system only is as good as the players running it. Wuerffel and Matthews might have been terrific quarterbacks for Spurrier at Florida. But there's a big difference between going up against Vanderbilt's defense and the Eagles'.

Spurrier is essentially a $5 million-a-year offensive coordinator for the Redskins. He has nothing to do with the defense, which is totally Marvin Lewis' baby. And for the most part, he's keeping his nose out of personnel decisions, except to suggest which ex-Gators to sign. Maybe I'm missing something here, but I don't see the 'Skins walking away with more than six or seven wins this season.

Q -- How good do you think Jeremiah Trotter will be in Marvin Lewis' defense?

A -- Not as good as he was in Jim Johnson's Eagles defense. Johnson's aggressive, downhill philosophy played to Trotter's strengths. His main job was to penetrate quickly and blow up plays. Lewis uses his middle 'backer a little differently. More reading and reacting. More emphasis on flowing to the ball rather than penetration. That said, Lewis almost certainly will make adjustments to fit his personnel. He knows what Trotter can and can't do and will try to maximize his strengths, not expose his weaknesses. Doesn't hurt that Trotter has one of the best young linebackers in the game, LaVar Arrington, lining up next to him.