DogofWar1

Baller.

17-0 until proven otherwise.

Realtalk, I feel like anywhere between 7-10 and 10-7 is very possible.  Pretty much a perfect bell curve.

Like sure, this is an incomplete team, BUT, overall, there's some thing to be optimistic about.  I think our coaching will be much improved, especially on defense, and that should hopefully elevate that side of the ball from...bad...to at least good.  Unit to unit, DT rotation should be good.  Edge rushers are not gonna be elite but should be serviceable.  Linebackers have the potential to surprise us, I am never gonna bet against Bobby Wagner's unit.  Secondary is the iffiest but if there was ever a guy who could turn around that unit it's probably Quinn.

Offensively, the biggest hole, aside from the ?? that is QB, is tackles.  But I like our interior OL for the most part, and I like our skill position guys.  Are they elite (outside of maybe Terry)?  No.

But like, a lot of our units are now likely "good" even if they aren't great.  So we should be able to score some decent point totals, and if the secondary can hold up (or the DLine can bully opposing Olines) then I feel like we can win some games in a decent fashion.

I'm pretty optimistic about this class.

Dan Quinn has a lot of experience whipping defenses and defensive players into shape, and the way players were seemingly tripping over themselves to follow him, to the extent that Cowboys fans started a conspiracy theory about him, speaks very well of him.

Setting aside that I hope we can get the maximum potential out of our returning guys, including salvaging guys like Forbes, it gives me hope for guys like Newton and Sainristil to come in and perform to high levels in their roles, which there is some runway for them because they are in rotational positions each.

The class of course turns on Jayden.  So if Jayden works out, Newton works out, and Sainristil works out, then that's three right there.

I'm very optimistic about Sinnott and Luke, they just strike me as the kind of guys who become really solid dudes, even if they are never tip top tier 1000+ yard guys.  Coleman I like the more I learn about him.  I think he has a place in a starting lineup in the NFL.  Where that place is, not sure, but somewhere along the line I gotta think he has a home, or worst case he becomes a decent backup/swing tackle.

I won't be so optimistic as to think we're getting 6 starters before round 5, but I think the odds of more than 3 starters from this class is pretty high.

1 hour ago, FootballZombie said:

 

I'm not sure that is ever "reasonable"... If you get 3 your killing it. If you get 4-5, start trying to extend your GM.

I will say they have put themselves in position for it to happen tho.

 

A lot of these guys are going to get the opportunity to contribute early, and not after its become a lost season, and without the specter of new management coming in and wanting to acquire their own guys. It seriously unlikely all these guys work out, but at least there gonna get a shot.

 

JD is self explanatory. All the reps he can eat.

Sinnot has a clear as day 1 year succession plan. He is probably TE1 before the end of year 1.

The league is increasing importance of the slot DB so Mikey can get there. We probably run a lot of Nickel, so we will see plenty of the guy.

Coleman has virtually no long term competition at T. If he can get up to NFL standard, he's running unopposed. I question if he starts the year there tho.

Newton's pathway beyond rotation player is not as clear as the others, but its possible given his talent.

That still leaves room for surprises, in a Curl kinda way. Maybe Luke locks down the slot WR role. It will be hard to get reps over Crowder if he makes himself a gameday mandatory deploy by being our return man again.

 

Unlike last year, whether its positive or negative, this is gonna be a monster impact rookie class.

Something I was thinking about, a lot of our picks are a little older, and the older your draft class is the higher your hit rate needs to be, ideally.

Daniels of course we know.  Newton and Sinnott are younger, sub-22, but Sainristil, Coleman, Luke, Magee, Hampton, and Jean-Baptiste are all varying degrees of 23, and I think everyone but Luke will be 24 before or during this coming season.

As a practical matter, you'll never draft well enough to fill your major snap count guys with nothing but draft picks.  Given the varying packages we see that's probably like 28-29 players you'd need to draft.  Let's round up to 30 for the sake of simplicity (and also adding in kickers/punters; good K/P are hard to find).

The older the player the fewer NFL years they'll have.  If we assume solid starters start to decline below starter status around 32 (this is inexact but probably roughly the average), then you'd have to hit on 30 players, and the time frame you'd need to hit on that number would be 32-X where X is the average draft age.  So if your players are, say, 24 their first year, they'd have roughly 9 seasons before retirement, meaning the team needs to hit on 30/9 or 3.33 "starter/high snap count" level players per year.

Compared to, say, average age of 22 first year, you'd have 11 years, and could thus land just 2.7 "starter/high snap count" level players per year.

Of course, also as a practical matter, contracts will become a problem, since you'd be paying like 18 guys 2nd or later contracts, and odds are the cap won't support it.

But the tldr was just that the older the class the more right you need to be, because you don't really have that 2 year runway you might have with some 20-21 year olds, and then still have 10 years of potentially good play, you need them to contribute much earlier.

Hartman will be a good test case for VR.  And maybe even like Fromm and Mariota as well.

Can you take a young probably future backup QB and make them somewhat competent through VR?  Can you take a current backup QB who is still somewhat young and elevate their game?  Can you take an "older" veteran QB who now finds themselves as a backup (future backup) and have them elevate their game back up to starter status.

How much does VR raise people's ceilings vs how much does it just bring out potential that was already there.

7 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Send JD home w/ high end VR headset and boom, full team reps at home.

This tech feels like it will be mandatory in short order.

It takes anybody's ability to study to the next level and it fits right in w/ a generation of avid gamers who gravitate to this kinda stuff anyway.

 

 

I'm less concerned about whether we will use this stuff and more interested in Harris buying some stock in this company. Be first in line for every experimental feature and rollout.

We should buy out the tech and keep everyone from getting it. 

I wonder if this tech will increase the number of qbs "making it" in the NFL.  The extra experience and training may help guys with physical traits who never got the mental game down.

If we haven't already looked into VR and maybe even AI to pair with it, we really ought to.

It just seems like such a great way to accelerate a QB's development.

I assume Jayden is banging the table for it, and we should be throwing money at it ASAP.  Think about it.  How long does it take to get 22 players in pads, and run through what plays they'll be doing, and then actually run those plays?  How many plays do you usually get in a full contact practice?

I actually don't know, this is an actual question.

BUT I imagine it's maybe like 50?  There's also wear and tear to consider so every play like that is an injury risk, or just a fatigue risk.

Meanwhile, boot up the VR simulator, Jayden is in pads, got your PS5 level graphics there, and pick a play and run it.  Play ends, reset.  Think about how quickly you can run plays in Madden, this will be pretty close.

I'm imagining, say, you want to practice 30 plays.  Run each one 3 times in a minute, in 30 minutes you've run 90 plays.  Then pause, maybe do a half hour debrief, then go back in, 3 more times each, and then same debrief/instruction period.  Break for lunch, then come back, do that cycle one more time. 

In 1.5 hours of plays being run, you've run 270 snaps, and in the 3 hours total you've had chances to identify issues and make corrections and then build up tape for what to try next time.  That's like half a season of pass attempts in half a day, with 21 other "players" in VR doing everything you'd normally do in a game.  Can even simulate crowd noise.

Heck, can just have him run an entire game in VR start to finish.  Get Badass in the booth outside of VR helping to call out protections, with Klingsbury doing some play calling, and in probably an hour you can run an entire game's worth of plays, with some pauses.  Do that twice a day for 3 days a week and in three weeks you've gotten him a whole season of experience.

Now it's not a true substitute for the real world, but for learning the playbook and practicing plays and seeing how the field might actually look on game day, there's probably no other tool remotely close.

It's almost like a Room of Spirit and Time (aka the Hyperbolic Time Chamber) from Dragonball, where a day is a year.

Add some trained AI in there so it's a little more realistic and unpredictable compared to standard Madden 25 AI, and you could really emulate what a real game might look like from start to finish, and run through the offensive side of that in not much longer than the usual time of possession for a real game. 

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

Anyway…what’s would you offer SF for Aiyuk…let’s gauge interest….

Given it's a one year rental and then you gotta pay big money I'd offer a 3rd maximum.

one thing I see in this guy's highlights is how people just bounce off this dude and get floored.  I do not know how he does it.

Coleman has so much potential, it's all gonna come down to coaching.  When you got them Trent RAS #s you know there's at least major potential, it's just gonna be a question of rising to it from a technical standpoint.  But I spent a fairly large chunk of the offseason talking about how, for someone like Maye, the technical issues like footwork and such weren't scaring me too much, and it was all fixable, and I think with Coleman the same is true.

There's actually a pretty good chance he becomes our LT, NOT IMMEDIATELY, but in like a year.  He clearly has experience there.  I suspect he's got a decent chance to be our starting RT this year AND do a pretty okay job at it.

But the longer I look at this pick and the surrounding info about him the more I like it.

So one of the things about Cooper was that he was viewed by some as a "tweener" and maybe a better safety candidate, but others thought he was just flatly good at everything.

I tended to fall into the latter category but I'm a nobody.  It's very VERY possible Peters fell in the former category, where he didn't quite hit the skill levels needed to be a "Master of all trades" in the secondary that some saw.  And if he doesn't hit those skill levels, then he truly would be a "tweener" and yeah, tweener CB who probably ends up at safety I don't have any heartburn about missing.

Time will tell.

13 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

I am also a big believer in diverse body type WR rooms.

I'm not.

Slapping a cardboard cutout of Art Monk at the entrance to Commanders' Park with a roller coaster height chart that says "You must be at least this tall to ride" and Art's hand is at 6'3".

Also no verts under 38".

I want a QB to throw the ball at 9 feet in the air and the WRs to come down with it every time.

I grade this draft a Fresh Prince of Bel Air out of fatty smoked Brisket.

5 minutes ago, redskinss said:

 

 

Here's another good one.

 

Nobody.

Knows.

Anything.

Except Peters.  He might know something.

15 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

Or, you know, give the players time to actually take a snap before making any judgements

Absolutely not.

Snap judgments are the only judgments that matter.  Who cares what a player does in 3, 5, 7 years?  Where they were supposed to go in the draft is what matters.

This dude is gonna break some ankles across the middle.

I feel like all these defensive dudes love to get at QBs.

what opposing QBs see when playing us, in Aliens motion tracker form.

12 foot broad jump is absurd.  And 41 inch vert is amazing too.

Surprised this dude doesn't believe in space bc every time he jumps he goes there.

PFFFFFFFFTTTTTTT HAHAHAHAHA

this man tryna get fired.

I would love to peek at Peters' big board and where they think other teams would have taken guys.

Because in the universe where we don't trade with Philly and take Cooper at 40, could we have gotten Sinnott at 67 vs 53?  Could we have gotten Coleman at 78 vs 67?

Sinnott there is some belief he was a reach so...maybe?  Coleman, I dunno if he'd have lasted either.

But it's an interesting hypothetical.

Now, maybe they just didn't like Cooper.  Dunno why they wouldn't, but they may know stuff we don't.

Okay NOT us, but look at this name:

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-grades-all-32-teams

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: A

1 (2): QB Jayden Daniels, LSU

2 (36): DI Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois

2 (50): CB Mike Sainristil, Michigan

2 (53): TE Ben Sinnott, Kansas State

3 (67): OT Brandon Coleman, TCU

3 (100): WR Luke McCaffrey, Rice

5 (139): LB Jordan Magee, Temple

5 (161): S Dominique Hampton, Washington

7 (222): EDGE Javontae Jean-Baptiste, Notre Dame

Daniels — Daniels is QB3 behind Drake Maye on both the PFF big board and the consensus big board, but the new regime in Washington takes him at No. 2 overall. Daniels does make sense as a theoretical fit in a Kliff Kingsbury spread-to-run offense that will allow Daniels to add on in the run game and get the ball out to players in space.

Newton — This wasn’t a need for Washington, as two of their best players — Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne — play along the interior defensive line. However, this is a tremendous value selection at the top of the second round. Newton is the 11th-ranked player overall on the PFF big board and was extremely productive over his college career. Just three Power Five interior defensive linemen have recorded 100 or more pressures over a two-year stretch since PFF began charting college in 2014: Newton, his new teammate Jonathan Allen and DeForest Buckner.

Sainristil — The Commanders continue to draft good football players. Sainristil brings a fierce mentality to the team and provides positional versatility. He secured a career-best six interceptions in 2023, second among cornerbacks, and his 90.3 PFF grade since 2022 ranked fourth among Big Ten cornerbacks. Sainristil has great reaction speed and is fearless in run defense.

Sinnott — After previously getting great value in this draft, according to the PFF big board, the Commanders pick the 105th-ranked player in Round 2. Sinnott is an athletic tight end for Jayden Daniels to develop with for the next decade. He doesn’t do any one thing at an elite level but can do everything well. Sinnott’s 14 missed tackles forced in 2023 ranked third among tight ends, and he made 31 explosive plays over the past two seasons.

Coleman — The Commanders finally land an offensive lineman at the top of the third round, selecting Coleman out of TCU. The 6-foot-6, 320-pounder struggled in 2023 but was far better in 2022 when he earned a 79.6 PFF grade. He could wind up on the inside in the NFL, but he has the experience on the outside, so he could still get a shot there first.

McCaffrey — McCaffrey has NFL bloodlines and is a natural athlete who knows the nuances of route running. He lacks an explosive element to his game but has strong hands, especially in contested catch situations, where his 32 receptions since 2022 are the most in college football. A former quarterback, McCaffrey has a good feel for finding open zones. While the Commanders already have weapons in the receiver room, McCaffrey provides a different style for the group.

Magee — A high-level competitor with a nonstop motor, Magee offers some solid run-and-chase ability, physicality in the box and upside as a blitzer. He posted a career-best 87.2 PFF grade in 2023 and an eye-catching 90.7 pass-rush grade that ranked fourth among all linebackers. At worst, Magee will be an impact core special teamer, but he has the competitive toughness and athletic traits to become a starter.

Hampton — Hampton is a supersized safety at 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, and he comes with good athleticism. He’s an interesting addition to a Dan Quinn defense that prioritizes those kinds of hybrid athletes in the middle of the field. Hampton was at his best in coverage around the line of scrimmage, as he earned an 81st-percentile coverage grade in the box last season for the Huskies.

Jean-Baptiste — Jean-Baptiste recorded 43 total pressures a season ago, including six sacks and 11 quarterback hits. He also produced 21 run stops without missing a tackle.

Just now, FootballZombie said:

 

C'mon man, don't be stupid. There is only one option.

 

Harem of Hartman.