Going Commando

I'd trust my medical team to help make the call on his recovery, but it's definitely possible that he makes it back perfectly fine from his injury. He's said there is a chance he'll be ready for rookie minicamps. I'd expect him to be available by TC.

You're going to outlive us all my friend. You'll be arguing about whether or not the fourth generation cyborg Manning is elite.

Yeah I think he'll be there at 67. His injury kept him from building up his stock during draft season. I think Beebe might still be there at 67 too, but my best guess is he goes in the 50s. If we miss out on the Kingsley/Morgan/Barton shelf of OTs at 36, there will still be lots of BPA opportunities at IOL on day 2. I like a draft where we trade down from 36 or 40 to get into the 50s, draft Beebe, then use a third on Zinter. IMO that puts our best OL configuration at Wylie, Beebe, Biadasz, Zinter, Cosmi going from left to right. And I think that line could be dominant. Really good group to run the ball with and help our young QB out, much like Dallas did in the early days with Dak. Corum is going to get picked in the third round IMO. I think all of the RBs this year are getting discounted by at least a round compared to where they would normally go. Corum's age and tiny size put his absolute draft ceiling in the second round, and he's much more likely to go in the third. A Beebe/Corum/Zinter string of picks would make me happy, and still leave a pick to get someone like Bralen Trice in the third following the trade down for Beebe.

Rosengarten at IOL6 ahead of McCormick. Barton would be IOL2 behind Beebe for me. Morgan would be IOL3 behind JPJ. I think Morgan stays at OT though. I also would be surprised if a team kicks Rosengarten inside given his speed. Usually you want your fast guys who may not be as powerful on the outside. Ultimately, these guys will have to play where the starting jobs for their next teams are, so you can't really tell where they will end up. I would just expect there to be more OT job openings.

I'm revising my IOL rankings. Went back and re-watched some cut ups and ended up moving a couple of players around. Moved Frazier and Zinter and Beebe and Van Pran up. I liked Frazier's film a lot more this time, and I'm seeing more of the optimistic takes about him better now. Moved Zinter way up too. One of the byproducts of watching Corum so much is that Zinter really shines. He's a dominant run blocker and he's got a fantastic anchor. I think he, Beebe, Van Pran, and JPJ constitute the four elite IOLs of the class, and all have second round value. IOL: 1 - Cooper Beebe 2 - Jackson Powers Johnson 3 - Sedrick Van Pran 4 - Zak Zinter 5 - Christian Haynes 6 - Mason McCormick 7 - Beaux Limmer 8 - Zach Frazier 9 - Christian Mahogany 10 - Kingsley Eguakun

Nobody with options is excited to play here. That's the hard truth about this franchise. A current player doesn't care if we might finally be a nice place to play, with top notch facilities and a fully resuscitated brand in 5-10 years. Teammates come and go every year, and we don't have any name brand studs on the entire roster anyway. It's going to take a lot of time and improvement before this place becomes somewhere players want to play.

Yeah. There's no advantage for us in leaking our picks either. Last year the Texans were cagey about picking Stroud up until they were on the clock because they didn't want Carolina to know they liked Stroud over Young. If we come right out and advertise we love Daniels or Maye, then maybe Chicago starts taking a second look at them. And that's not something we want. There is only downside in revealing your picks before you are on the lock.

What?? Don't you need one of those to bend your knee?

I think Corum is one of the exceptional players that catches both the analytics and traditional eye test scouting people napping. His age is a long term issue, but it also means that he's probably going to be good immediately. And not just by rookie standards, but potential top five back standards if he ends up on a team like San Diego or Dallas where there is a major workload waiting for him. I remember seeing a stat earlier in this thread about how bad his yards after contact/forced missed tackles ratings were compared to other backs in the class, and thinking to myself "something doesn't feel right about that." What was going on finally clicked for me when I watched his magnificent 15 minute long career highlight video: His running is so phenomenally good that defenders aren't even getting into position to attempt a real tackle on him. Whether they are unblocked in the hole or at the edge. He's one of the most unique outside zone runners I've ever seen at the college level, and certainly one of the best at following downfield blocks. I have never seen someone so comfortable and efficient at cutting back or even reversing field on outside zone runs before. That's just not done in D1 football and up, and it's so next level to me. And when it comes to backfield creation, he presses the hole so well, that plays where normal good runners have to do something creative to make the first guy miss don't even typically come up for him. And yet he never runs up the back of his blocks. It's ridiculously good pace and timing--God given instincts and quickness. He is so good, that I'm struggling to explain to myself why I'm resisting putting him in my top 20. Guys who make high level football look easy, like they're playing Pop Warner at the Power 5 level are special. Sometimes you just need to turn your brain off and enjoy a special player, and that's what I think needs to be done with Corum. He had a team visit with New England. I think there is a good chance he goes at 34. Yes, there is a big chance that New England comes away with Drake Maye and Kingsley Suamataia.

Yeah. 40 is a reach by at least a full round for Rosengarten. That would give me Aaron Banks vibes.

If we pick Jayden Daniels and the Giants end up with Drake Maye, I'm going to go ahead and ban myself.

Except for the ones between the numbers.

My fandom has been hanging by a thread for years. This is the best shot we've had at genuinely escaping NFL poverty in a generation. If we blow it, I'm not going to tolerate getting kicked in the nuts by this team any more. Especially if we blow it in a way that I felt was totally predictable and avoidable. I'm not going to give up on the NFL, but I'll stop watching the Commanders.

I hear you. But I don't need my leg pissed on about Daniels. He can work out, I understand his strengths, and I wouldn't second guess picking him if we were at #3 and Maye was gone. But nothing anyone says is going to make it any better if we pick him and he busts and Maye hits. Peters just needs to be right if he picks Daniels.

Yeah. Kingsbury is the quintessential mercenary too, with a talent for latching on to bigger talents and failing upward. I would make zero long term plans for anything concerning him. I also wouldn't spend the second overall pick in the draft with a one year vision. Recapturing 2012 is not the best this franchise can do, I'm not listening to assholes like RGIII telling me I should be happy with that. I want us to tell the league to **** off with this "take Jayden Daniels and be happy and let the good teams get the franchise QB" crap.

No. I think they'll have made the best call they could have pre-draft. Picking Maye is following best practices for drafting a franchise QB, and it's what I would do if I were in charge. Picking Jayden over him is a super speculative prayer based on bad process, and it's a call I would never make. I can't be better at picking players from my couch than the team I root for, and still maintain faith in the organization.

If they pick Jayden and he busts, and Maye goes on to succeed, that's going to be it for me. So they better be right if they do.

I wouldn't pick Daniels over Maye based on tape. Maye's tape is prototype star NFL QB. Jayden's tape is gimmicky college star with a bad body, a mediocre arm, an allergy to throwing before the break, sketchy placement on vertical throws and crossers, and a running style that will get him injured at the next level. I can look at the current best QBs in the NFL and see how players like Maye translate into success. I have to go back to a player from the late 80s to find that kind of example for Daniels.

****ing RGIII. No I do not want another 2012. I want an annual contender for the next 15 years. How pathetic is it that 2012 has become our Glory Days for anyone who didn't grow up in the 80s?

It's not Florio that gave that narrative credibility, it's Schefter.

I'm 100% out on Guyton. I get the appeals to upside. I see the mirror speed and the size. But he doesn't have that dog in him. Motor sucks. Zero nastiness. The softest run blocker in the class by far. Actually looks sulky when he's asked to move block in the run game, when that is what good OLs live for. He's also pretty stiff and has bad grip strength in addition to the effort, awareness, focus, and aggression issues. He's better than Jaelyn Duncan, but he reminds me of Jaelyn Duncan. Duncan was horrendous on film, and was one of the worst players in the NFL as a rookie. He managed to give up 9 sacks in just 364 snaps and had a 32.9 PFF grade. Guyton isn't the absolute trainwreck in pass pro that Duncan was, but he's also a baby **** soft player who put too many flat out bad reps on film to ignore. Guys like this bust. We'd be better off lighting our card on fire and picking nobody than drafting Guyton at 36.

I think his best case scenario is even more than Trent. To me Kinglsey is more like the Trent of the class if he hits his absolute best case scenario. Mims is like Jonathan Ogden in physical stature. Dawand without the sloppy weight, or like a rich man's Jordan Mailata. You're talking about the biggest and longest OT in the NFL, only without any bad weight on him. His spider chart is insane: https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/amarius-mims

I'm having a little trouble sussing out Beebe's draft stock. Mick drafters are super low on him, but he feels like a top 40 player to me. I don't understand the case against him. I would be stoked about the value on Beebe if we trade down from 40 into the mid 50s. I feel like hedge against "reaching" on him in the mid second by getting another player from the exchange. I've been thinking about who I want the most at 36, and I think the final answer for me is Kingsley (provided the work ethic and character checks out). I think his upside is All Pro OT. I think he's smart and he has the best natural strength and hand eye coordination and hand speed in the class. There's a lot reps where he loses the hand battle early and guys get leverage on him and they just can't bench him. He can anchor just by leaning into them, and meanwhile he clears your hands and now he's got his hands on you and he's snatching you down before you can even react. If this kid was efficient and consistently got early wins, I think he would have a case for OT1. His run blocking is meh, but his potential in pass pro is elite. I really hope this isn't a situation where the mock drafters are far lower on this guy than the NFL is. I hope he doesn't end up going in the first round.

Either New England and New York and Minnesota have all been waging an incredibly effective of campaign to get Maye to drop, or the kid has major skeletons in his closet. Like serial arsonist or a having a compulsion to torture animals level skeletons. I hope this has all been a bunch of nonsense and we pick Maye.

Agreed. I go back and forth on Walker more than any other receiver in the class. I want to give him the benefit of the doubt because he missed a lot of time early and had to play catch up all year, and that UNC offense was so dysfunctional. But the moments where he ****ed up big and lost games for his team really bother me because they typically showed a genuine lack of competitiveness and toughness. I can stomach lapses in focus, but not being soft and quitting on plays. And then all of the drops at the SB and even during Drake Maye's throwing session at the UNC Pro Day... these are not in game situations where the pressure is ramped up. He is too risky to draft before the fifth round IMO. I'd pass on him and let someone else take the big swing.