Dan T.

Best response:

For 77 years?

2 hours ago, Simmsy said:

 

I saw an amazing vid on youtube last year that traced the rise and fall of Rudy. The dude literally fell ass backwards into everything and came out clean on the otherside...until Trump. I can't find that vid again, I've looked everywhere.

Do NOT Google "Rudy" "ass backwards" and "come out." Whew.

On 4/28/2024 at 8:31 AM, kingdaddy said:

Maybe he'll be a similar player to what his dad was in his career? Ed McCaffery was very good, always open and made contested catches...good route runner from what I recall.

The thing I remember about Ed McCaffery is that he wore as little protection as possible.  He wore Pee Wee football-sized shoulder pads and either no or the minimum amount of leg and thigh pads.  He felt it helped his speed, quickness, and flexibility. From a 1998 Sports Illustrated article:

What truly sets McCaffrey apart is what he wears—or doesn’t
wear—once he takes the field. To rid himself of unnecessary
weight, he defaces his uniform. He cuts out the lining, belt
buckle and pockets of his pants, punches holes in his jersey,
even slices off all but a half inch of the band above his
athletic supporter, creating what amounts to a G-string jockstrap.
The only padding McCaffrey wears is a discontinued model of
shoulder pads (Wilson’s 77-I Aggressor) that, according to
Broncos equipment manager Doug West, ‘you wouldn’t even put on a
junior high kid. I’ve tried to take his pads from him, because
they’re right on the borderline of safety, but he won’t let me.’

And apparently he passed that trait and other tricks of the trade onto Christian - including, when CMC was 7 years old - using double sided tape to stick his jersey onto his pads so no one could tackle him by his jersey:

The Genius Football Equipment Trick Christian McCaffrey Learned From His NFL-Playing Dad - stack

So there's some advantage having family with a football legacy...

Judge Merchan also ruled that Trump can attend son Barron's graduation.  Remember all the indignant outrage that the mean-old biased judge wouldn't let poor family man Donald attend his son's graduation?  Yeah, me too.

On 4/27/2024 at 3:13 PM, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

For anyone who didn't read the dog-killing section of Noem's book, the dog sounded violent and uncontrollable so it was not just that she didn't like it or that it wouldn't hunt...

Not always, but very often dogs become violent and uncontrollable because of how they are treated. And a clue as to how someone might be treating a dog is that they decide to shoot it in the head.  **** Kristy Noem.

Small thing I noticed in his highlights. Invariably after a catch, he makes a point to flip the ball to the official.  Refs appreciate that.

No big deal, but one thing I couldn’t help but notice was how cheesy our War Room looked.  Just tables draped with black table cloths in a plain space that looked like a meeting room in a Ramada off Route 1.

Not a good look.

3 hours ago, The Evil Genius said:

 

Have this on the Kindle queued up after Iron Flame. We'll see if I get to it on my 11hr flight Sunday. Probably not since I have a **** load of movies and shows to watch on the ipad.

It makes Tom Hanks' island stay in Castaway look like a Sandals Resort getaway.

24 minutes ago, Conn said:

It’s a more admirable trait to just be able to say with grace that you were wrong or miscommunicated your point, FYI 

I gracefully apologize for you misinterpreting my point. 

23 minutes ago, Conn said:

Did you forget that as part of your argument you posted about Trey Lance vs Brock Purdy and then said that “the league is littered with high round draft busts and low round successes at QB”. That’s the entire reason I’m comparing hit rate in the top-5 to hit rate in the late rounds. Because that was your argument, which is what I’ve been trying to dismantle because it’s extremely incorrect, and the numbers on a large scale are clear. You are much much much more likely to hit in the top-5 than in the late rounds. If you’ve agreed with that the entire time then I don’t know why you’d waste time making anecdotal arguments about Lance vs Purdy and mention how many late round QB successes the league sees (the reality is it’s very very few). It’s a percentages game, no one would be crazy enough to say that any of these top guys are can’t miss prospects. So what are you arguing exactly, and why bring up late round QB anomalies. 

Jesus you're exhausting.

1 minute ago, Conn said:

It’s not really what you were saying, you explicitly said you thought there was probably a slight lean but you “don’t think there’s an overwhelming hit vs miss ratio”. There is though. Even if the hit rate on a top-5 QB is only 10-15% (that’s probably lowballing it, but being extremely conservative for the sake of argument) that is immensely higher than a mid-late round QB having like a .1-.5% chance to hit or whatever. And the numbers are that stark. 
 

But yes, we agree that overall the hit rate is always low. The difference in degrees is staggering though, is my point. It absolutely matters if you want a real shot at a franchise QB. 

No, it is exactly what I was saying.  Take all the 1st round quarterbacks taken.  The number that turn into franchise quarterbacks (hits) vs. those that don't (misses) is not "overwhelming."

That's a different point than your point that the chances of getting a franchise quarterback are better drafting high over drafting lower.

1 minute ago, Renegade7 said:

 

The idea of a Giant Penix in New York that's likely gonna bust anyway...the jokes right themselves, I dare them...

Many years ago a guy in our fantasy league had - for a short time - three QBs on his roster:

Brad Johnson, Chris Weinke, and Rob Johnson

So he had two Johnsons and a Weinke.  

23 minutes ago, Conn said:

It’s not about having a high hit rate at the top of the draft—the hit rate is low across the board, objectively.

And that is the point I was trying to make.

If you want to get a franchise quarterback, your chances are better at the top of the draft than lower, but the hit rate on QBs overall is low. 

49 minutes ago, tmandoug1 said:

What happens when Chicago doesn't pick Williams? What if they take Maye? I realize this is not going to happen, but I was curious as to the selection we would make. Daniels or Williams?

It could be ripe for injury as Adam Peters pulls a hamstring running to the phone to select Williams.

23 minutes ago, Conn said:

That is called anecdotal evidence. I’m talking about empirical evidence over an extremely large sample size. One example of something never created a fallacy. Otherwise I could quote you here and say “there’s a fallacy in your argument and it’s named Josh Allen the 7th overall pick for the Bills in 2018”, or any other name I desired. See how silly that reads? Because it means nothing. I don’t need to care about Trey Lance or Washington’s specific QB troubles or any other singular data point, because I can zoom out and look at large pools of candidates and see that I’m right about where the highest hit rate is, by far. And even that’s still a low chance, to your point. But it’s statistically significant. 

My point was that using San Francisco as an example directly contradicts the argument you were making. Going with the last pick in the draft as starting QB and dumping the number 3 overall pick from 2 years ago isn't a very compelling argument that you have to pick a quarterback high if you have the chance.  

I don't know if the empirical evidence is overwhelming writ large.  I'm sure it skews slightly to success over failure with high draft QBs.  But I don't think it's an overwhelming hit vs. miss ratio. The NFL is littered with examples of high draft busts and lower round successes at QB. 

9 hours ago, Conn said:

It’s a vanishingly small chance at an extremely low percentage play. Drafting a top QB is also a low percentage play, yes—but it’s the best chance you have. Purposely settling for a QB outside that top-10ish talent bar just lowers your odds to hit a ton. 
 

Penix will probably go top-20 because teams are desperate. Nix won’t be a 1st round pick. You’d have to really hate winning football games and playoff games to purposely trade out of the premium QB picks for one of these lesser prospects in the mid-1st to mid-2nd. It’s not viable unless you get extremely lucky. The 49ers built an incredible roster and if they didn’t absolutely luck out with Purdy as a late round pick they would all be well on their way to getting fired with no answer forthcoming at QB. Again it’s not viable because you can’t plan for it, you luck into it. You can’t purposely hit on a QB between the 2nd and 7th rounds, it’s luck. And you’re even lucky if a mid-1st round QB hits. Hell you’re lucky (but less lucky) if a top-5 pick QB hits. But these things come in degrees, and you’d be absolutely crazy not to take the swing on the blue chip prospect in the top-3 when you have the chance, you may not draft that highly again for a decade if our FO is remotely competent. It’s extremely hard to be that bad. We’re extremely lucky to be in this position and the stars really had to align for us to be here at #2, even with the team totally quitting on Rivera and lacking in talent we barely did it. 

There’s a fallacy in your argument and it’s named Trey Lance the Niners’ number 3 overall pick in 2021. 
 

it goes to show it’s all a crapshoot, even at the top of the draft. The Redskins/Commanders have too many examples of this going back to Heath Shuler, Haskins, RG3, etc.  Ask your grandad about Gary Beban. 
 

It would not surprise me if Bo Nix  or Michael Pennix has a better NFL career than Maye, Daniels, or MCCarthy. 
 

Evaluators do the best they can with the information they have, but man, life and football is really complicated. 
 

Thesis: Chicken wings damage your eyesight.

Unfortunate business signs:

At a dry cleaner:

"28 years on the same spot."

In a loan office:

"Ask about our plan for owning your home."

In a repair shop:

"We strive to give you the lowest prices and workmanship."

I'm done.

Son: "Dad, did you get your DNA test results back?"

Dad: "Call me George."

I told my aunt she painted her eyebrows on too high.  She looked surprised.

I was drinking a martini and the waitress screamed "Does anybody know CPR?!?"

I yelled back "I know the entire alphabet!" and we all laughed and laughed...

Well, except for one person...

What do you call a pudgy psychic?

A four-chin teller.

A termite walks into a bar and says "So, is the bar tender here?"

Why can't you hear a pterodactyl going to the bathroom?

Because the "p" is silent.

A woman in labor suddenly shouts "Shouldn't! Wouldn't! Didn't! Can't!"

The doctor says "Don't worry. Those are just contractions."