Fantasy prediction on what Coles will do this year

[PiLfan]

i don't have fantasy team, but i came across this interesting article on how many yards/TDs we might expect from Coles this year.

it makes some good points, but i disagree in the case it makes about Brunell and a Gibbs-style offense. just because Gibbs is big on running the football doesn't mean his QBs never put up huge yards and TD numbers...so, unless Gardner upstages him, i think Coles will actually do better than what's predicted here.

but anyway, for sh!ts and giggles...

Player Spotlight: Laveranues Coles

Many fantasy owners list Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, and Torry Holt as their top three fantasy receivers. And for good reason, as Moss, Harrison, and Holt are three of the four NFL receivers who have gone over 1,200 yards in each of the last two seasons. The fourth? Must be Hines Ward or Terrell Owens, right? Nope, keep scanning down the rankings. Chad Johnson? No. Joe Horn? Derrick Mason?

Since he's the subject of this article, you probably guessed long ago that Laveranues Coles is the answer. The next question then is why a player with 2,468 yards over the last two seasons doesn't get much respect relative to Moss, Harrison, and Holt?

Coles has three big things working against him in fantasy circles: His past touchdown production, Mark Brunell, and a lingering toe injury.

On the first point, Coles scored only six, five, and seven touchdowns over the last three seasons. Those numbers put him in a group with such recent fantasy teases as Jimmy Smith, Isaac Bruce, and Amani Toomer. Bruce has reached double-digit touchdowns twice in his long career but has settled for seven or fewer scores in six of his last eight seasons. Smith and Toomer have never caught more than eight scores. As such, Smith, Toomer, and Bruce are routinely (and justifiably) ranked well below the elite fantasy receivers despite their solid production.

Holt formerly belonged to that group as well, but Torry broke out with 12 touchdowns in 2003. Coles undoubtedly has the talent to score at a similar rate, but the second and third aspects named above will once again keep him from elite fantasy levels this season.

Coles' Redskin career and 2003 season got off to a promising start when he piled up 106, 180, and 105 yards in the first three games. However, Coles suffered a hairline fracture in his big right toe during that third contest and played the rest of the season with the malady. Laveranues managed to reach the 100-yard mark only once more over the final 13 games. Sadly for fantasy owners, Coles choose to wait until nearly the end of the season to reveal his injury.

Even more sadly, Coles opted for rest over surgery during the offseason. He stayed off the foot for a while, and then played in the Pro Bowl. He stayed off the foot some more, and then participated in May minicamps. Unfortunately, the rest did not work, as his toe bothered him in early May.

More rest and new support in his shoe have helped a little, but Coles will still need to nurse the toe throughout the season. As such, we can only expect him to play at the level he showed over the last 13 weeks of 2003. His 813 yards and five touchdowns over that span project to 1,001 yards and roughly six scores. – not exactly elite numbers.

We then come to the third concern: Brunell. The Redskins new starting quarterback is a three-time Pro Bowler who does a nice job of game management, but he's not exactly fantasy-friendly. Brunell has never thrown more than 20 touchdowns in a season, and no receiver under his watch has ever eclipsed the eight-score mark. With the Redskins forming their offense around Clinton Portis and the ground game, Brunell won't likely change those two stats about himself this season.

As such, we don't expect Coles to have a breakout touchdown campaign with Brunell under center and in Gibbs' run-first system. If his toe doesn't bother him too much, Coles could turn that 1,001-yard rate into another 1,200-yard season. However, it looks like Laveranues is headed toward another Jimmy Smith- and Amani Toomer-like campaign.

http://bestbuy.fanball.com/article.cfm/ID.2807

[freakofthesouth]

Seems accurate.

Edit: Who cares about what one player does for a team; it's not about that. It's about the entire team.

Fantasty football is destroying the game. It is literally annoying to listen to folks in bars crying because their favorite team is losing, yet happy that they are losing to their starting fantasy RB. It's sickening. It promotes individual personalities to become arrogant, 'TOs' and 'Leons.' It makes me ill.

If LC only gets one TD this season, and the Skins are in the playoffs, I'm cool w/ it.

[jrfriedm]

Whatever!! This guy obviously doesn't know anything about Joe Gibbs's offense.