RCP-Census Data Shed Light on 2020 Redistricting

[Kilmer17]

Census Data Shed Light on 2020 Redistricting

By Sean Trende
RCP Staff
December 22, 2016

 

If you’re a normal person, you’re walking around right now enjoying the holiday spirit.  If you’re a numbers geek, you’re enjoying the latest census report, which gives updated population estimates for the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

This is important because the census governs the apportionment of House seats and electoral votes by way of a nasty formula that I won’t expound upon here.  By applying the formula to the latest estimates, we can get a sense of where things are headed for the 2022 congressional elections and the 2024 presidential elections.

 

These take on added urgency because, while previous estimates have been necessarily speculative, by this point in the decade it becomes very difficult to significantly change things.  With six years’ worth of population growth baked in, it’s unlikely that the trajectory of population growth/loss will change enough to radically alter the projections.

So where are we?  If reapportionment were done today, the following states would gain or lose seats:

Florida: +1 (to 28)
Illinois: -1 (to 17)
Michigan -1 (to 13)
Minnesota -1 (to 7)
North Carolina +1 (to 14)
Oregon +1 (to 6)
Pennsylvania -1 (to 17)
Texas +1 (to 37)

 

Interesting look at whats ahead.   Using the last election as a starting point, the GOP would add 4 electors to Trumps current count.  But as the article points out, that wont translate into more GOP Congressmen.  Because, it will be hard to add more GOP districts in states losing them.