tex Posted March 7, 2003 Share Posted March 7, 2003 "Only the most deluded optimist should therefore expect certainty and good times to return to the markets once the first cruise missiles are launched." http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=International%2BPerspective&content_idx=20368 Will Gas Lines in the Coming Decade Make Those of 1973 Look Short? http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=00081C95-DB64-1C6E-84A9809EC588EF21&pageNumber=1&catID=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince62 Posted March 7, 2003 Share Posted March 7, 2003 so....what's the discount rate for a WMD detonating in Israel???? or NYC? there are some interesting details....but the analysis strikes me as more of a polemic....and hardly representative of an "efficient market" analysis (given the above comments) if this line of thinking is to be followed to its logical conclusion..... we've argued in other posts on this subject about the shape of long-term responses.......with your position...as I recall....being that there is no long-term alternative.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tex Posted March 8, 2003 Author Share Posted March 8, 2003 If WMD are used against us or our allies it will trigger one long dark night, even if the oil fields are spared. Assuming that was your point, I agree with you. The analysis ostensibly points to little or no Iraqi oil windfall after an invasion. With the Iraqi invasion, if supplies are interrupted, oil prices will probably increase to a level never before seen. There just isn't enough unused capacity available anywhere to offset the loss. If the earth were indeed dripping with oil as some suggest there would be no reason for price hikes other than opportunistic greed. We'd just pop another hole in the ground and start pumping. Assuming for a moment that there is a 500 year supply of petroleum in the ground that is simply being metered as a means of controlling prices…..wait…..I smell a conspiracy (just kidding). Seriously, it's hard to imagine such a colossal secret staying under wraps for any length of time. A perhaps unintended consequence of reduced output and high prices would be the delay of peak oil, allowing us to keep the lights on a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuckinIA Posted March 8, 2003 Share Posted March 8, 2003 A member of OPEC could fart and someone would decide that oil prices should increase. Hell...even after the after the strike in Venezuala was over, oil prices continued to rise.:puke: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redman Posted March 8, 2003 Share Posted March 8, 2003 Russia, my friends, Russia is where the next great oil supply will be coming from. We just recently made more guarantees to them to assist them with drilling and exploration. It's suspected that they have the largest untapped oil reserves in the world in Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuckinIA Posted March 8, 2003 Share Posted March 8, 2003 Originally posted by redman Russia, my friends, Russia is where the next great oil supply will be coming from. We just recently made more guarantees to them to assist them with drilling and exploration. It's suspected that they have the largest untapped oil reserves in the world in Siberia. redman preaches the gospel. where has the US been in Siberia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tex Posted March 8, 2003 Author Share Posted March 8, 2003 I wish that were true, I really really do because I like electricity as much as the next guy. Much of the Russian oil is currently exported to China with Japan getting into the mix in the near future. Russia really depends on oil exports to keep her economy going. If / when the Iraqi oil taps begin to flow the per barrel price could go to $15. That will crush the Russian economy which needs $24-$25 per barrel to stay afloat. Recoverable reserves in eastern Siberia are estimated by Yukos to total 2.3 billion tons (16.6 billion barrels), but to develop the oilfields to lift this oil will take many years. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/EC04Ag01.html (2001 report) Currently 44 out of 50 giant fields in West Siberia are on production. Many have reached the (mature) stage of declining production. http://aapg.confex.com/aapg/de2001/techprogram/paper_7097.htm Saudi Arabia is a pivotal player. With 262 billion barrels, it has a quarter of the worlds total proven reserves and is the single largest producer. http://www.corpwatch.org/issues/PID.jsp?articleid=5529 Thats: Saudi Arabia.....262 billion barrels Eastern Siberia.....16.6 billion barrels Western Siberia.....in decline The only way out of this over the short term is for oil prices to rise to a level were demand is equal to supply. Not very good for the world economies but it buys some time before the lights go out. The worlds current brain trust has decided to pump like there is no tomorrow and live large until the wells run dry. Then the only thing left to do will be to drink the kool-aid or learn to live as the American Indians did a long time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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