Kiper: Rating Underclassmen in Draft

[Yomar]

Rating underclassmen in draft

Tuesday, January 7 Updated 4:08 PM EST

ESPN.com draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. evaluates the underclassmen who have declared for the 2003 NFL Draft (all prospects, listed alphabetically by position, are juniors). The draft is April 26-27.

QUARTERBACK

Rex Grossman (Florida)

While Grossman found the going a little tougher this season, the Gators lacked the necessary supporting cast for him to light up the scoreboard on a consistent basis. The loss of wide receivers Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney (both underclassmen) was critical, and the overmatched offensive line proved to be a key problem area, especially in the first half of the season.

Keep in mind, though, that in the two previous seasons, a confident Grossman torched opposing defenses on a regular basis, looking like a potential first-round draft choice. While he may not be the prototype in terms of height (6-foot-1, 219 pounds), he's able to see the field, shows excellent instincts, is extremely polished and can throw accurate strikes to any point on the field. Grossman combines above-average arm strength with an extremely quick release. Plus, he's a tremendous competitor who won't allow a bad play to affect his confidence.

Draft Outlook: I expect Grossman to be drafted potentially as high as the middle of Round 1, with the only quarterbacks coming off the board before him figuring to be USC's Carson Palmer and Marshall's Byron Leftwich. Keep in mind, there are plenty of teams that will have QB as one of their top two priorities heading into the draft. That group is highlighted by the Cincinnati Bengals, Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers, all of whom are picking in the top 10.

WIDE RECEIVER

Teyo Johnson (Stanford)

A 6-6½, 245-pounder with a basketball background, Johnson will immediately provide an NFL offensive coordinator a variety of options as to how his skills can be maximized. This season in the Pac-10, we really didn't see the best Johnson had to offer, due to the lack of consistency at QB for the Cardinal.

When the ball comes his way, Johnson can operate as a power forward. He is able to position his frame and use his height advantage to get the best of the cornerback he's working against. He also shows good body control and is able to adjust his frame to haul in the reception.

With so much versatility, depending on a team's offensive system and structure, Johnson figures to be an intriguing prospect by the time draft day rolls around.

Draft Outlook: Right now, it's too early to tell. Because Johnson is so versatile, he could play either tight end or wide receiver in the NFL. How early he is drafted depends on his workouts and what position he projects to.

Brandon Lloyd (Illinois)

A tremendously consistent performer over the past two seasons, the two things that immediately get your attention with Lloyd are his hands and competitiveness. He also studies the game, spending the time necessary to gain any advantage possible over the cornerback he'll be working against that particular week.

While he's not a true blazer, Lloyd averaged a very respectable 15.5 yards per catch this season, despite the fact the Illini lacked a top-echelon quarterback. At 6-2 and 188 pounds, Lloyd presents a nice target in the intermediate areas, runs very disciplined routes and has the athleticism to make the difficult grab.

Draft Outlook: What will ultimately determine whether he's a first-day choice (rounds 1 to 3) will be his performance during the combine and individual workouts. I view Lloyd as an Antonio Freeman-type, capable of presenting a great deal of value when he comes off the board.

Shaun McDonald (Arizona State)

Even though he checks in at about 5-9 and 171 pounds, his production was equal to that of just about any wideout in the nation over the past two years. In 2001, he averaged a remarkable 23.5 yards per catch and posted a four-TD effort against Louisiana-Lafayette. This season, he hauled in 76 catches for a 17.6-yard average and 13 TDs, again proving to be one of the most exciting players in the Pac-10.

The diminutive dynamo can flat-out fly, with his times in the 40-yard dash in the 4.35 to 4.40 range. This deep speed ideally complements his natural pass-receiving skills and quick burst out of his break. What impresses me with McDonald is that he's able to control his speed and sell a route, keeping the cornerback off balance and guessing. At the pro level, what also could come into play will be McDonald's prior experience as a punt/kickoff returner.

Draft Outlook: Until he runs the 40-yard dash for the NFL brass, it's too early to speculate. With the NFL featuring bigger and bigger wideouts, the smaller McDonald needs a blazing 40 time to maintain a first-day grade.

Charles Rogers (Michigan State)

While he dropped a few catchable balls this season, there's no denying Rogers is a true difference-maker and a super-elite player who figures to carry a final pro draft grade equal to any prospect at the top of the board. At 6-4 and 210 pounds, he presents immediate matchup problems for opposing defenses, towering over the 5-9 to 5-11 cornerbacks he usually works against.

A gifted athlete with outstanding leaping ability, Rogers could be the next Randy Moss-type at the pro level, able to take over games and open up opportunities for the rest of the attack force. To say he could be a feared performer is an understatement. He dropped a few passes this season, but in clutch situations over the past three years, Rogers rarely if ever let his coaches or teammates down. Check out his highlight-film catch in the final minutes of the Notre Dame game this year for evidence of what I'm talking about.

Draft Outlook: With the Detroit Lions holding the second pick overall, you have to believe they would be thrilled to land a marquee target for QB Joey Harrington. Troy Aikman had Michael Irvin, Joe Montana and Steve Young had Jerry Rice, Jim Kelly had Andre Reed, Terry Bradshaw had Lynn Swann and John Stallworth, Ken Stabler had Cliff Branch and Fred Biletnikoff, Roger Staubach had Drew Pearson, Bart Starr had Boyd Dowler and Carroll Dale, Joe Namath had George Sauer and Don Maynard, and Johnny Unitas had Raymond Berry. For Harrington, Rogers could prove to be just as valuable.

RUNNING BACK

LaBrandon Toefield (LSU)

I'm surprised that Toefield has declared for the draft. At 5-11 and 223 pounds, he's never been a breakaway back with blazing speed. He's an adept runner and keeps the chains moving, but he won't have scintillating runs where he turns on the jets and outraces cornerbacks to paydirt.

Beyond the speed question, Toefield has had injury problems. He missed time this past season with a broken arm. More significantly, he tore the ACL in his left knee in the 2001 SEC championship game. He had a great season in 2001, rushing for nearly 1,000 yards and scoring 19 TDs. But his production tailed off in 2002, when he did not maximize his draft rating.

Draft Outlook: He'll probably slip into the draft's second day (rounds four to seven). Because his durability is a concern and because he lacks breakaway speed, I'm surprised he isn't staying in school for his senior year.

DEFENSIVE END

Terrell Suggs (Arizona State)

Over the past three years, collegiate sack records have been achieved by the likes of Julius Peppers and Dwight Freeney, both of whom transitioned easily into the NFL this season. Peppers and Freeney were definite impact performers at for the Carolina Panthers and Indianapolis Colts, respectively.

Well, this season Suggs set a new standard for rushing the passer, establishing a new single-season sack record with 22, while also leading the nation with 29½ stops behind the line of scrimmage. If that wasn't enough, he forced six fumbles. Suggs wreaked havoc on a game-to-game basis, with his intensity level never wavering. Simply put, he was the most dominating defensive player in the nation.

Unlike Freeney, whose size (6-1) has been a question mark at times, Suggs figures to measure in the 6-4½ and 265-pound range, presenting the height and wingspan NFL clubs look for.

Draft Outlook: The top five of Round 1 is a distinct possibility. With the NFL's trend toward aerial displays, a pass rush is as critical as it's ever been, so Suggs figures to be a marquee prospect by the time April 26 rolls around. He would be an ideal choice for the Arizona Cardinals at the fifth spot.

Dewayne White (Louisville)

White really burst onto the national scene as a sophomore in 2001, earning Conference USA defensive player of the year honors after recording 15 sacks and 23 stops behind the line of scrimmage.

While his production dropped this season (9½ sacks), two factors contributed to the decline. First, opponents did everything in their power to neutralize his charge -- although at the pro level, he'll have to continue to improve from a technique standpoint in order to get the best of the skilled OTs he'll be working against.

The second factor that limited White's production was an ankle injury that caused him to operate at less than 100 percent in several games.

Draft Outlook: Likely a second- or third-round pick. Heading into the 2002 season, White looked like an elite defensive prospect, but after his so-so junior campaign, he'll figure to present some value as he drops a little further down the draft board than his collegiate press clippings tend to indicate.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE

Dewayne Robertson (Kentucky)

A three-year starter, Robertson (6-3, 313) was the key performer on defense for the Wildcats. He clogs the interior and possesses impressive quickness for a DT with his dimensions. This past season, he led Kentucky with five sacks, even though he was always the focal point of the opponent's blocking scheme.

When you think about the Wildcats in recent years, the run-and-shoot offense comes to mind, featuring QB Jared Lorenzen and a host of productive wideouts led by Derek Abney. However, they ran the football effectively this past season with senior Artose Pinner and also showed significant improvement on defense, led by Robertson. The stingy D limited opponents to 24 or fewer points in nine of 12 games and 17 or fewer points in five games.

Draft Outlook: A distinct first- or second-round possibility, depending upon his performance in the workouts leading up to the draft.

Ian Scott (Florida)

After an excellent 2001 season that saw him make a name for himself as one of the rising stars in the SEC, Scott's performance level declined this season, due in large part to a knee injury that forced him to miss some practice time and some game action.

When operating at a maximum level, Scott (6-2, 305) shows the necessary quickness and functional strength. Whenever an underclassman opts to leave the collegiate ranks with eligibility remaining, he hopes that he has maximized his NFL rating. With Scott, that obviously isn't the case, which is why the NFL brass will have to go back and also take a long, hard look at what transpired during the 2001 season.

Draft Outlook: Probably a third- or fourth-round pick (with a strong 2002, Scott could have been a second-rounder).

Jonathan Sullivan (Georgia)

At 6-3 and 298 pounds, Sullivan has good quickness and a a non-stop motor. His speed enables him to pursue sideline to sideline and to chase pays downfield.

Sullivan was a more consistent collegiate performer than former Georgia defensive-line standouts Marcus Stroud and Richard Seymour (both are now in the NFL). Stroud and Seymour were more gifted physically and were more dominant when they brought their "A" games. But on a game-to-game basis, Sullivan was more steady.

Draft Outlook: Likely a mid-to-late first-round pick.

[redman]

I'd love to see Suggs fall to us but that wouldn't appear to happen. However, if he's not there, I would like to see us trade down 5-10 spots for picks and then pick up one of the other good D-line prospects who should be available there.

[Cskin]

I agree Redman, but I just don't see Suggs falling that far unless someone puts a bag of "X" in his gym bag.

On the otherhand, there appear to be a plethora of solid DT's in the draft. Of course, Kennedy... Wilfork..Joseph... and Robertson appear to be the cream, I think there are some others who could help us not only starting, but in the reserve role. I really think we only need one young DT from the draft, of course this depends on the return of Gardener, Powell, Cowsette, and B. Jackson.

As for wideouts, I'm really starting to like this McDonald kid from Arizona St. He seems to have great hands, great route running, and burst out of his breaks. Where he falls will depend solely on his 40 time, but I don't think we need that to determine whether he can help us. Add him with Russell and we immediately improve our team speed at the wideout position.

[Yomar]

unfortunatelt Wilfork isn't coming out...I'm heartbroken

[redman]

Regarding McDonald, I'm always concerned about WR's getting off the line successfully when they're as small as McDonald is. We saw how important that was with Desmond Howard; Cincy's seeing the same thing with a slightly bigger guy in Warrick. Speed's great, but it only does so much when a guy's getting jammed at the line of scrimmage.

I'd be more interested in him if he can return punts.

[Hauss]

I read where Robertson postion coach said that they wanted Robertson to concentrate on stopping the run and didn't emphasize passing rushing-even though he lead his team. Also, his DC at Kentucky was the positon coach at Baylor for Dotson and Gardener--he thinks Robertson has the potential to be one of the best. I was disappointed in Joseph's play this year-especially with all the talented guys around him.