BMagic

8 minutes ago, MartinC said:

An interesting way to look at this is how would you feel if the guy you don’t want us to draft fell and was picked by the Giants. 
 

Does Daniel’s or Maye being a Giant worry you? It would worry me - which tells what most already know these are two blue chip prospects and we are lucky to be in a position to make a choice.

Letting Daboll get his hands on Maye after his work with Josh Allen would be a disaster. They already face a player with a similar style to Daniels in Jalen Hurts.

Against Daniels, you'd look to play contain with the DEs/LBs and Cover 6. Force him into working the Intermediate MOF and away from the boundary throws, which isn't something he had to do a ton of with Nabers/Thomas Jr.

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

Not me.  I think we do it too, but it's a **** up and I'm going into this eyes open.  If we do this and Jayden is skinny Justin Fields and Drake Maye becomes Josh Allen part 2 in New England, Adam Peters's career is over.

I know a few Jets fans praying the Commanders take Maye so he doesn't wind up on the Patriots. I'm just hoping he doesn't end up on the Giants if he isn't drafted here. I'd be devastated if it ended up going that way.

4 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

For the record: Jayden fan here, but open to, and will root for, whoever we choose.

I'd like Maye, however if they draft Daniels, I'll trust it because Kingsbury has an eye for special traits in QBs. If Daniels is the pick, I'd also like bigger receivers like Chase/Higgins that can win more on deep routes outside the numbers than a guy like Dotson. Ironically, Burrow had a similar set up at LSU with Chase/Jefferson and has been able to have the same luxury in the NFL.

I have a hard time seeing that style translate to the NFL consistently, but if they decide to go for it, then they need type of receivers to pull it off effectively.

6 minutes ago, rockluc said:

Strangely my optimism about us taking Maye just went way up. 

Same, Colin also said Caleb's camp didn't want him to go to Chicago. Then, Colin had to get back on the air and backtrack at the request of Caleb's camp. Could be a giant smokescreen a la Mac Jones/Trey Lance.

On the contrary, Jayden's game is more electric and I wonder if that resonates with someone like Magic Johnson and whether or not Magic has some influence on the decision, being that his game was Showtime in the NBA. I recall Magic being a key player in recruiting Kingsbury to come here once the Raiders deal fell through and Magic promised him they would do all they could to get him his QB preference. This is a fanbase that needs to be revived and Jayden's style of play is more exciting to watch, especially for more casual fans.

The NFL Draft Reddit certainly has strong takes in this debate as well. 

My main comp for Daniels remains Randall Cunningham, who did get to the NFC Championship Game with Prime Randy Moss and that squad scored tons of points. Cunningham also dealt with nagging injuries in his career.

6 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

"Don't just look at the throws but look at an entire game. And then you'll really have an assessment about 'Did you scramble to remain a passer? Did you know sometimes a throw away was the best decision right here?' It wouldn't show that on the stat sheet, but that was actually a really good decision. And so those are the things that I've been digging in on."

 

That right there is the improvisation trait that's rare and the best guys in the league have it. The pick should be as clear as day if that's an accurate indicator of what Peters/Shen/Kingsbury and the scouts are looking for along with Quinn.

8 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

Great insight and fascinating tweets.

 

In fact, it was so topical and on point that I assumed @Skinsinparadise was the author, at first. Which is about as high of a compliment as I could possibly give.

 

Very belated welcome to the forum, and please post more often.

The tweeter is actually a Bears fan who has been defending their Caleb pick vs. the ESPN hype of Daniels. Thus, he's been caught in the crossfire of the Maye/Daniels debate.

The P2S ratio has been beaten to death. The more concerning stat imo is the amount of throws when moved off the initial spot, vs the amount of scrambles.

2 hours ago, illone said:

 

 

 

I've got it:

 

59% Maye

40.5% Daniels

.5% JJ Island

 

Based on thorough scientific analysis 🤓

 

*ES only, media excluded 😂

Twitter/X is strongly in favor of Daniels from what I've seen, I'm staying far far away from there if Maye is the pick! The Commanders and NFL Draft sub-Reddits are skewed more toward Maye, especially the NFL Draft subreddit. YouTube comments show a strong lean toward Daniels.

11 hours ago, Going Commando said:

Apparently Pat McAfee is right that you need to have vision to see the potential with Drake Maye judging by the mountain of obfuscation and bull**** that's piled up on him over the past four months.  But I still don't understand why it takes any vision at all to see it with him.  It took me 30 minutes of watching him to realize how special he was.  He is so unbelievably easy to see coming that I simply don't understand how so many people are missing on him.  The only guys who have been easier to see coming since Andrew Luck came out are Caleb, Burrow, and Lawrence.  He is a thousand times easier to see coming than Josh Allen and Justin Herbert were, and the fact that those two ended up being mega-hits and offer such easy comparisons for Maye makes Maye a true no-brainer.

Yeah, I've seen folks say Maye's UNC tape is better than Herebrt's was at Oregon. In a redraft, Herbert would go before Tua for sure.  In about five years, I'd bet that Drake would go above Daniels in a redraft, if Daniels ends up being the pick at 2.

If the Commanders pass and the Giants somehow ended up with him, I'd be super depressed. Doesn't help that he hangs out with Eli Manning either. At least he also hangs with Philip Rivers.

18 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

A.  If I understand him right every coach he talked without a stake in this including coaches he respects a lot as to their QB acumen, all tell him Daniels > Maye.  And they don't find it super close.  So based on that he's assuming that this regime might fall accordingly considering he's getting zero mixed opinion on it and he continues to probe and it hasn't changed the more he probes.

 

B.  He's not ruling out Maye as a possibility.  He seems to think though McCarthy is unlikely the dude at #2.

 

C.  Moving target, this FO hasn't decided

 

This is why Dan's "coach-centric" model with Ron Rivera was so wild imo. A good organization has checks and balances. Daniels has crisp mechanics with a more refined release, which is to be expected since he's a fifth year player. A coach is more likely going to gravitate toward the guy who they feel can help them win games faster, for better job security. A GM is more concerned with the long-term state of the Franchise and will lean toward who they project to be the best in 5-10 years. Maye is more raw from a technical standpoint and is going to require more fine-tuning from coaches, but the traits and special throws are seen in his tape.

I'm willing to be patient with Maye to develop if their projection of him is as a top-end of the league type talent. Yet, if Jayden can be similar to Jalen Hurts, we've seen that work as well.

10 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Yeah, sorry Minnesota. We can’t just let you have any quarterback that you want. I’m sure that sounds really great to you but that’s just not gonna work for me.

Not to say this guy is right, but Minny can't just force their way into the Top 3 of the draft.

Just like we can't force the Bears to trade us the first pick and have Caleb come home.

28 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

I read that that stat doesn't include scrambles.  If that is true, it is a useless stat.  If the QB scrambles away from pressure and makes a positive play, it doesn't count?  LOL.  Who comes up with stats like this?

I agree, that's why if that stat is counting sacks when he can't quite squeeze through a gap on a rushing attempt, then it's pointless. If it's because DEs can bring him down by merely grabbing his shoulder pads, then that's a different issue. Dane Brugler goes more in-depth on that.

In either case, he can definitely go through progressions quickly and has a clean release with crisp mechanics. I see the Lamar/Cunningham/Jalen Hurts type traits there.

I'm in the Maye camp because he's shown special things already without having clean mechanics, but that's what makes him more of a gamble on his upside. He cleans up his footwork/mechanics and he could be an perennial All-pro type player in the wide-open NFC. Depends on his work ethic.

That said, if GMAP, Quinn, and Kingsbury pass on him, I'll trust it's because they view his mechanical issues as being those they don't feel can be corrected through coaching or they see Daniels having the higher ceiling if the two. Kingsbury had the eye to see the raw talent in Mahomes and got him to go to Texas Tech. His insight into the process is invaluable.

I'm sure Eugene Shen is crunching all the relevant numbers. The interviews will matter a ton. You need to know if these were a result of LSU's scheme and if like Keim suggests, some of the sacks are a result of Jayden not quite squeezing through running lanes and it results as a "sack"

A 24% pressure to sack ratio is unplayable in the NFL, would absolutely have to be mitigated. If he can maintain a higher playing weight, he'll be able to brush off more sack attempts as well.

14 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I will be surprised if it is not Maye. Maye should be the wire to wire #1/#2 pick. The rest is noise.

 

Daniels wasn't even considered a Top 10 option until like 5 weeks ago. McCarthy - same thing.

 

This draft was always about Maye and Williams. I think that will hold true.

Spielman thinks so as well.

The prospects still need to visit Ashburn and go through the interviews though.

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Thank god we lost that game to the Jets. That Jets K should go down in history as a hero of the district.

I say the same thing to my friend every time we speak. We were on the phone and celebrated the Jets making that FG like we won the SuperBowl 😂

8 minutes ago, Conn said:

Welcome to the board, have enjoyed your contributions so far. You seem like a person who knows ball 

Thanks so much! Our team became so hard to watch, I started watching RedZone more and more on Sundays and the product put out by other franchises was wildly superior. I just want us to get back to that same level and who the team picks at #2 is a large key to the puzzle. I was crushed when we missed on being able to pick Burrow by one spot and I see this as being the chance to get it right. It's a QB driven league now and watching Mahomes, LJack, Allen, Burrow duke it out in the AFC lets me know the NFC is there for the taking. Jordan Love is on the rise, but outside of him, the NFC has solid guys like Dak, Hurts, Purdy, Kyler (playbook issues aside) but these aren't guys that can really keep teams from ascending. Caleb and who is selected at 2 will be in a great spot in a wide open conference.  New ownership group, new GM, new Coach, new QB all at once. It's so rare for the universe to align like that, especially around these parts.

I was fortunate enough to meet Mitchell Rales at Glenstone randomly and he could not have been a nicer person. I knew right then and there that we were finally in good hands with this ownership group.

43 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I'm not comparing the two. I'm saying the logic of saying "we should draft him because he's a winner" is terrible because its not something that translates to the NFL.

 

if you wanna argue he has a good arm, size/athleticism, experience in a pro offense etc. then fine, I can at least listen to that argument.

 

Subjetive arguments like "he won", "he was clutch" etc. are just useless trash arguments that have no merits for translation to the pros.

 

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar jackson didn't win much in college either.

Projection is the hardest part. A different sport, but I saw Kemba Walker will his UCONN squad to a National Championship after leading them through the Big East Tournament. I never thought he'd end up having a better pro career than Kyrie Irving, who only played 11 games at Duke. Same position, relatively the same size players. It's levels to it and Kemba has had a solid career nonetheless. Kyrie has had ups and downs, but is a Hall of Famer with one of the most iconic shots in NBA history.

In football, it's even tougher to evaluate QBs because guys play in different schemes and the talent level of teammates and between teams is so widespread across the board. Mahomes was absolutely lighting it up at Texas Tech and had footwork issues coming into the league. Reid/Ryan Poles saw something there, as did Kingsbury. If Kingsbury sees similar traits in one of these top guys, I'll trust his judgement even though the final call comes down to Peters.

4 hours ago, illone said:

Actually, he was asked to carry Michigan, just not in the same way Maye was asked. In the biggest moments in the biggest games, he delivered with his arm and made plays. I watched every single play of both playoff games. Against Bama he was down 10 and you just never felt any panic in the kid. He was going to find a way to move the ball and make plays. I was not shocked AT ALL when he converted a bunch of 3rd and longs and at least one 4th down as well. Miss any of those and they lose the game. 

 

I got the same vibe from Mahomes when he was down 10 in the Super Bowl. It was like, cool, I'll spot you ten points and then rip your heart out in the 4th quarter. 

 

Never in doubt.

 

I want that killer instinct in my QB. 

 

Llke Burrow, Mahomes, Brady, Montana.

That ice in your veins that you will not be denied.

 

Josh Allen does NOT have that. Neither does Herbert.

 

Talented, yes.

 

Killer instinct? 

 

Nahhh.

 

 

I can see where you're coming from for sure. When the 49ers scored the FG in OT, I knew they loss right then and there because Mahomes is that guy. I actually figured the Chiefs would repeat before the season started because I see Mahomes as being that transcendly great.

Not trying to make excuses for Allen, but we may look at his career differently if it weren't for 13 seconds and Mahomes/Kelce/Hill. Then, they were cooked with the Hamlin situation the year they played Burrow. No excuse for Mahomes coming to his house and getting it done this past season though, that's going to haunt Allen for a while. Wide-right is Buffalo's version of the yips.

Maye could have that dog in him that we haven't seen yet since the team surrounding him wasn't quite up to par. Growing up in a house with four older brothers (all athletes at that) meant he had to scrap to earn his keep and their respect. That type of environment can groom a person to be extremely competitive. Nothing was handed to him in that house. Turned down Saban and Alabama and kept his family ties to UNC. He had to know he wouldn't have been surrounded by as much talent and still decided to take on that challenge. The opposing viewpoint could be he ducked the pressure of playing at Alabama.

The worrisome thing is all Butch Davis QBs seem to enter the league with bad habits.

2 hours ago, illone said:

Daniel Jeremiah and Joel Klatt talked about this earlier today actually.  I'll paraphrase DJ here:

 

"You arent drafting what a kid did in school, you are drafting based on a projection of what you think he can become"

 

Why I have a tough time projecting Maye is his performance in big games, and two key areas that dont pass the eye ball test for me:

 

1. He tends to drift backwards and create his own pressure, making it tougher to throw kind of like Sam Howell does.  Not sure if its a coincidence they came from the same offense, but there are some wild similarities between the two when it comes to bailing on a play too early.  (JJ on the other hand hardly ever generates his own pressure, instead casually moves up or sideways in the pocket to create throwing lanes. I got the sense that he was always attacking, whereas Maye retreated early on way too many plays).

 

2. Footwork. In the games I watched he relied on his arm WAY too much. He doesnt set a consistent base and typically throws from awkward angles despite not needing to. Not sure how much of him you have watched, but his footwork is terrible and as of right now does not translate to any pro offense I am familiar with. Of course most NFL coaches will accept this and coach it out of him, but it seems risky to draft a player that high with such poor footwork and mechanics.  JJ McCarty on the other hand, even though he was not asked to do as much as Maye, his mechanics and footwork are light years ahead of Maye despite the vanity stats being much lower. I'd challenge you to go look at 3rd and 4th down conversion percentage, which is something NFL teams look at heavily.  Add in the fact that JJ won big games with his arm, converted key 3rd + 4th down plays with the game on the line, I think that is why you are seeing JJ rise up the boards because people are actually starting to realize how well he played even though he was not asked to throw it 40+ times per game like the other QBs.

 

Adding to the "big game" thing with Maye. He tends to fold and force throws in big games. Not saying its all his fault, football is a team game afterall,  but in two games vs Clemson which is one of the better defenses in his conference, he threw 53% with 1 TD and 3 Picks. Not good, and both of those games are scheduled at the end of the year when the pressure is the highest. Had he performed better in those game he could have elevated the program perhaps even into the playoffs.

 

One thing i have noticed recently is that the stats change depending on where you are obtaining the data. I've read many places that suggest Maye attacks the middle of the field, but Ive also seen plenty of numbers to suggest McCarthy was the best in that department. This is why I have a hard time relying on twitter posts with random numbers in them. Usually it's just cherry picked data to form a pre-built narrative.

 

In my case I have watched enough college and pro football to go beyond the numbers. Sips numbers are definitely compelling, and Id argue his highlight reel is even more compelling, but when you start looking closer at the tape and game situations is when I start to project this kid lower than most here.

 

I definitely agree concerning his footwork, but there have been many prospects coming into the league with sloppy footwork who end up figuring it out. The interviews with him will be key to gauge whether or not he's already working on it, since I find it hard to imagine he hasn't heard that critique about his game. Part of the projection will be figuring out if his footwork issues are what the coaches feel can be tweaked or if they're too far gone for them to want to try to rectify. Jordan Love had to sit for a while to get his footwork straight.

You see the improvisation, frozen rope throws, tight windows throws between the hashes, slides when running, and pretty much carrying a program on his shoulders. I saw someone posted the wins above replacement stat. Makes sense, UNC was smoked in their bowl game without him and the year prior he was incredible in their Bowl game against Oregon.

He just makes the types of throws that other guys can only dream of and if he figures out the footwork you're looking at a guy who could be Josh Allen/Herbert/a mobile Big Ben type QB.

I see more Alex Smith in McCarthy, but he wasn't asked to carry Michigan so perhaps I'm being unfair to him and his untapped potential. It'd be a bad use of an asset to draft him at 2 since other teams likely have him as the fourth QB on their boards, but you can't really trade down past 4-5 if you really like him. They'd be in a tough pickle if they like him over Maye/Daniels and would still likely have to stay put at 2 to ensure no other team jumped up to grab him.

I wonder how accurate this will turn out to be.

35 minutes ago, wit33 said:

I must admit, as a supporter of JD, Maye really impressed me in the interviews I watched. He exhibited several positive traits such as confidence, self-deprecation, humility, good energy, engaging banter, competitiveness, and standing firm on his identity and play style when questioned about areas for improvement. Moreover, he displayed what appeared to be a genuine desire to achieve greatness.

 

Like that he’s multi-sport athlete, I lean towards baseball as the preferred sport for a quarterback, but love that he’s an all around athlete. 

I love Daniels' explosiveness and a younger me would have been pining for him just to be able to have my own version of Mike Vick to use in Madden 😂.

What concerns me are the sack rate and percentage of passes over the middle of the field, since those are usually top indicators of your game projecting well on the NFL level and hard to overcome when transitioning to the league. IMO it's easier to clean up Maye's footwork than adjust the mindset to throw over the MOF between the hashes, and in tighter windows with anticipation.

Daniels does go through his reads extremely well and has super crisp mechanics. If GMAP and Quinn/Kingsbury feel they can coach that part of his game up, I'm fine with the pick. But, if not, it could be Justin Fields/RG3 all over again and that's scary to think about if Maye becomes a hybrid of Allen/Herbert. Of course Daniels could end up being Lamar 2.0 and Maye could be stuck at a first/second year Josh Allen level as well. The toughest part of the job is projecting how these guys will fare on the next level. I don't even care much about Yards/TDs in College. It's more about seeing every type of throw at all field levels and evaluating their decision-making prowess, especially under duress.

Another thing I like about Maye is already having experience with having to carry a program on his shoulders. UNC was pretty terrible outside of him.

I know his career own didn't pan out, but Mark Sanchez brings up some interesting points about Maye hooping in high school. Said that Maye averaging 11 boards reveals some things about his attitude/moxie. Rebounding comes down to desire and ability to box guys out, while requiring the toughness to compete with guys for the boards. Touches on him being able to throw with anticipation and not turning the ball over much on 3rd and 4th downs. Also shows that he needs to improve on decision-making.