Always A Commander Never A Captain

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Melton or Cam Hart I could see at 40. 36 I'm betting the best players will all mostly be edge, unless a tackle falls.

That's only 4 spots later. I'd rather trade back and then grab them. I do like them, but I don't think either are borderline 1st's.

It's not a weak CB draft, so I'm not too worried about a major CB run grabbing the only good ones.

54 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Now that we have the coaching staff in place that we do, I am far more comfortable trading back for raw talent, than trading up. Peters allegedly has a knack at finding mid round talent as well. 

I'm with this. There are some scenarios where we have an embarrassment of riches in the 2nd round and we should pick someone special that fell. But the more common scenarios have those special talents going ahead of us. Trading back for more shots at the above average talents can juice up the roster top to bottom faster.

I think everyone has encapsulated the Diggs trade here already. One more thing, it was about as sell high as the Bills could have done. He'll be 31, and his production might be falling off. Could have been other factors, such as played banged up, but as he gets older that'll only happen more frequently. As the season progressed, here are his stats:

Clear Yards Per Game, Catch %, and TD drop decline.

The playoffs continued that decline.

He always had 50-70 more targets in Buffalo than the #2 option, but was angry with his lack of targets. Now he's going to Houston that already featured 2 legit options. There's a chance this could be backfire for Houston. If he does revert to his prior self for a season, then Houston gets a steal. CJ Stroud gives them 4 years of contention without the major QB price tag, but a lot of that teams best assets recently are in their 30's. Both of their starting Edge's they're paying a combined $34 million to are 31 and 35 years old. Joe Mixon is getting $9 million, but for a RB that's had 1854 NFL touches in his career that's kind of getting up there. For reference, Zeke lost 1 step around 1400 touches, and then another step around 1900 touches. Alvin Kamara is still good, but he's not the dynamic threat he was, and that drop off happened after 1000 touches. Melvin Gordon's drop off happened around 1750 touches.

Point is, Texans might have just a 1 year immediate contention window with their aging roster despite CJ Stroud being on a rookie deal. It makes sense for them to double down, but there's a lot that could go wrong.

54 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

I don’t think he is,  but Rizzo has nothing to do with it. To get compensation, the prospect has to be a consensus top 100 prospect. Lipscomb is not.

 

Though I’d much rather he get reps at third instead of Senzel.

Oh right, I forgot about that Top 100 stuff. I apologize for besmirching you Rizzo.

If he is legit MLB starter quality (like Lane Thomas), then how or why did everyone write off Lipscomb's Spring Training as showing nothing different from his 2023 minor league season?

Is Trey Lipscomb still eligible to get us draft picks if he balls out, or did Rizzo screw it up?

5 minutes ago, Idaho fan said:

Sooo glad we have the #2 pick.  Had that jets kicker missed that 54 yarder at the end of that game we would be picking 5th.  Damn.  

It's good to suck at just the right time. Instead of say having a top pick in 2022 and needing a QB

4 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

Yeah Tez doesn't have anywhere near as spectacular of hands as Pickens.  The comparison I've seen for Tez that makes sense from a physical comparison is DJ Chark.  Donte Moncrief makes sense too though.

 

These kinds of players usually disappoint, which is why I don't think I'd go for Tez at the end of the day.  But he becomes tempting in the third round.  Tall receivers with elite speed and genuine deep threat skills are rare.  If someone can fix his hands, they are going to get a vertical menace.

Tez has hand issues but at least he's got more catching confidence than DJ Chark. I believe Chark was almost exclusively a basket catcher into his belly in college.

5 minutes ago, ILikeBilly2 said:

𝙄𝙛 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙬𝙚𝙧𝙚 𝙖 𝙙𝙚𝙛𝙚𝙣𝙨𝙚 𝙘𝙤𝙤𝙧𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙖𝙩𝙤𝙧, 𝙬𝙝𝙤 𝙬𝙤𝙪𝙡𝙙 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙝𝙖𝙫𝙚 𝙩𝙤 𝙜𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙥𝙡𝙖𝙣 𝙖𝙜𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙨𝙩 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙛𝙖𝙘𝙚?

 

I find this question overly simplistic.  In week one, the answer is likely JD.  After 10 weeks of wear and tear, it is probably Drake.  If both have a banged up ankle or knee, it is Drake.  In 5 years when player's athleticism has diminished, it is Drake.  

Mayes 2023 was played on a bad ankle. He hurt it early in the season but I'm not sure which game. Supposedly it got worse in the last few games of the season.

38 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

Finally settled on an NFL comp for Tez Walker: George Pickens.  Stupidly talented, but isn't a very serious player and has the kind of flaws that make you want to write him off.  So talented that you can't do it though.

 

Obviously has strong concerns about his hands and his overall focus and competitiveness.  Strong concerns about the quality of his route tree and the effort he gives.  But he's 6'2 with ridiculously long arms, a 40 inch vertical, and a 4.36 40.  He's a 98th percentile athlete for an NFL receiver.

 

If you can (and should) give Drake Maye a pass for the dysfunction of UNCs offense last year, Tez deserves some grace too.

 

He can work on his hands and his chemistry with Maye over time.  What can't be developed is his god given speed and catch radius.  He's gotta be in play somewhere in the second, and if he makes it to our pick in the third, why not take the swing?

Does Tez have a plus catch radius? Doesn't seem like it. He drops a lot when he has to extend past his frame.

He is intriguing though, and I would be tempted to grab him in the 3rd.

All of this my guy is best and the other guys suck always leaves out Caleb Williams from the slander!

What happened to equal opportunity? Take your shot at him too! Chicago will rue the day they didn't take (insert desired QB here) over Caleb and thusly gifted (insert desired QB here) to us. They will! Mwahahahaha!

1 hour ago, DogofWar1 said:

He generates so much power off base.  That kind of capability is both nice and dangerous.

 

Opens more options for everyone.  But you want to make sure it's not a habit.  It's a tough balance.

I mean, that's why Mahomes and Rodgers are so good.

Throwing off base is like most of Caleb Williams appeal too. But he doesn't have quite their arms.

It's a bad thing unless you're good at it

5 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Scherzer's best was better than anyone else's best, but he wasn't here as long as the others and doesn't have that "face of the franchise" status the way Zimm and Stras do. But he will be the first curly dub in Cooperstown.

 

 

I think it's a bit more difficult to say. I also lean Stras but he was hurt a lot. The innings pitched difference between Stras and Scherzer is suprisingly small given the years in the organization. I think Stras might only have 1 more seasons worth of innings pitched than Scherzer? It's also difficult to separate them as they were both Ace's during the lone World Series run. Scherzer had 39 WAR to Stras 31 WAR. I know who was better isn't the argument, but that much WAR does help show that Scherzer contributed to the team for a long time.

I guess my point is, there's too much overlap between Stras and Scherzer and it doesn't feel right to anoint one as face of the franchise pitcher over the other.

In comparison to Ryan Zimmerman, I don't think there's any question on which batter is the face of the franchise. It's him.

16 hours ago, @DCGoldPants said:

Just heard Rizzo on this. Said Trey made it hard to do this but they want him to get real game reps at 2B to start the year. JWood will be there too on Rochester. Crews and some others will start on Harrisburg but expects them to be together in AAA soon. I get it. 

Wood and Lipscomb to AAA is good at least. Did he mention where Morales is and what he'll play. AA and 1B?

16 hours ago, @DCGoldPants said:

Also, he nicely said he's always focused on pitching and needing those guys who perform. I then yelled in my car "bro, when your 5th starter is at his best, he's still a jag" 

Almost all of our pitchers are JAG's. Gore has potential. We've got Cavalli coming. Maybe there's still an argument for Gray? But until Cavalli that's like 4 of 5 starters who probably would not start on better teams.

So Michael Davis's contract numbers came in, he's right now just barely our highest paid corner at $3.6 million. Forbes is at $3.5 million and St Juste is at $3.4 million. That's more money for Davis than I thought it'd be.

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

Yeah Forbes is useless in press but could be useful in off man. I dont think our scheme is set in stone though. Feel like we actually have flexible coaches now.

I doubt it is, and we'll probably sprinkle other coverages in but we do know some things. They have said certain spots are billed for more Man coverage and less Zone Chinn (SS/LB) and Luvu (LB/Blitzer). Odds point to a fair amount of shell coverage over the top, mixed with man underneath. Some of that Man could be the basic zone pattern matching which turns into Man, and maybe Forbes wouldn't be bad there. But offenses could still attack that and force Forbes into more straight Man pre-snap if they want to.

I think the coaching flexibility is in how they use the middle of the field. The DL, the LB's, and the SS will have extremely flexible roles that shift on opponent/down/distance/etc, whereas the outside CB's and the FS will be more rigid. My guess is they build the weekly defense around pressure packages, getting to the QB, and then fit what coverages they can in behind that. That's pretty different from what we've normally done for schemes, which often felt like building coverages first and then try and keep the QB contained in a slowly closing pocket.

On 3/20/2024 at 6:47 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

J. Sanders is probably my TE #2 but I waffle on it.  My favorite YAC TE in this group aside from Bowers. Yet his combine-pro day concern me.  8 bench pressses? 30 vertical.  9.6 broad.  All meh. And 4.69 speed is OK but I'd feel better if it was 4.6

 

I got to do a deeper dive again on the TEs and sort through:  Stover, Sinnot, Sanders.  And also Theo Johnson and Wiley.  Wiley has been sort of my third tier favorite for months and that's soild with me.  As for the others I have to rewatch them again.

I think Sanders was more a product of a loaded Texas team than anything else. Putting Sanders numbers in RAS and we get:

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Watched a Trevin Wallace game just now, then watched his highlights.  So not too much.

 

Plays with a lot of oomph, some diving tackles, tackles low.  His athleticism jumps.  Fast and long.  

 

5.5 sacks.  Strikes me in the NFL more of a weakside LB ala our own Kentucky LB Jamin Davis.  

 

Play recognition nothing stood out, not bad, not hot, somewhere in between.   Looks like he was targeted on the 2nd level on some run plays and the O lineman mostly won that match up.

 

but overall, I can see how he can be a good pro.  Especially if they go some 3-4, i can see him playing some edge potentially.  He seem fluid when backpeddiling so he can drop into coverage well from what I saw.

 

That was my first watch by osmosis of @Going Commando's guy Thrash.   Really impressed.  Made me watch another game of his.

 

He has such a quick twitch sudden movement where he seperates with just like 2 quick steps with no wasted movement and without needing much space to do it, reminded me some of Beckham.  He varies his speeds -- accelerate and decelerates.   

 

He's sort of the WR version to me eyes of Jonah Elliss as a DE.  That is, they are big time technicians.  Nothing raw about their games.  Fun watches.  

Mockdraftable says his spider chart compares really highly with Jahan Dotson. 92.3% similarity in testing/measurements.

3 hours ago, TheGoodBits said:

I suspect for an onside kick they'll just need to opt in for it much like teams now have to opt to go for 2. Kills the surprise/fake offside kick but that's it. 
 

I predict we will see more kickoffs returned for TDs this year. And then by mid season kickers will resume kicking it through the endzone, resulting in starting field position being effectively the 30 full time now. 

I read the onside kick has another change. Instead of it being 5 players on each side of the kicker, it's now 6 and 4. So teams can kick to the strong side or fake it and kick to the weak side. I don't know if that really matters, but it could be a fun tweak?

10 minutes ago, method man said:

Exactly my thought, which is why waiting until the 2nd is risky. It wouldn’t surprise me if we move both 2nds to move up to the mid 1st for Fashanu if he is there and he just might be.

It's lying season, but Peters has implied they do not feel desperate enough at OT to do that.

Who could get a draft boost from the overhauled kickoff? Xavier Leggette maybe?

Not sure where else to put this, but how much does the new Kickoff rules change people's roster designs?

They overhauled the kickoff and the change seems pretty drastic.

Supposedly bettings odds now have McCarthy as a realistic shot to be drafted #2.

28 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Top 10:

Harrison jr

Nabors

Odunze

 

11-20 ish:

 

Thomas jr

 

21-32 ish:

 

Worthy

Mitchell

McConkey

Franklin

(3 of the 4 1st round)

 

I'm not sure about the bottom 4. I think 3 of the 4 will end up being in the 1st and one will fall to early 2nd(would love if McConkey fell to 36).

 

 

That's a lot, but not unreasonable. Paints a bleak picture for early 2nd round for us, as WR is in a really big weak spot for a Klif Kingsbury offense.

1 minute ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

He just screams 2nd round value to me. I've also read pretty recently that analysts - some anyway actually think he is the more athletic of the 2 OT's between he and Alt.

I don't think he's more athletic than Alt. Alt has really light feet, and that's the major reason (in my mind) why he's getting drafted in the Top 15 picks. If Fisher was actually at Alt's athleticism, we'd draft him at #36 and not think twice.

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I would rather take Rosengarten over both of them. He is a day one player. And a good one at that imo. I think we go with 2 tackles in the first three rounds. Maybe Suamataiea and Rosengarten. Or something similar. I know Kdawg is pounding the table for Beebe. And I actually wouldnt hate that. But I prefer Barton more if he falls because he gives you position flexibility. And we just signed a guard in FA. 

Rosengarten in the 1st round? Wow. I kind of want to move him to Guard instead of OT, but I do like him.

I'm not seeing it with Suamataiea. I think he's nowhere near ready to play in the NFL. I know we need a developmental OT, but I'm not sure what he shows on tape is going to be that easy to fix.

20 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Agree on Rosengarten. I’ve got him just after Paul as day 2 preferences.

For clarification, CLSkins is saying he's a 1st rounder. Are you also think Rosengarten is a 1st rounder and if he falls to #36 or #40 you'd take him (unless Paul is also there?)