Always A Commander Never A Captain

There's a lot to like about Luke. His late dominator score is odd as he changed positions from QB. But once he was a WR at Rice he immediately crossed the dominator threshold.

I liked at the Senior Bowl 1on1's that he had some natural looking hand fighting for separation going on. Did not look awkward.

I don't think he's as ready as Tank Dell was with having successful juke moves in his route breaks. But you can see enough to think he could develop it.

We're in the middle of tank time mode.

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Listening to Keim, playing up the leaders now on this team which was missing previously.

 

I've heard others around the team that Jonathan Allen is a good dude but not a traditional leader type -- he's more a set an example and gets angry when things go awry.  Terry is more of a leader by example on and off the field.

 

But been missing that London Fletcher type.  Mitch Tischler who has been around the team for a decade plus really emphasized over the years the lack of leaders.

 

Keim talked up Bobby Wagner on this front who is already a mentor to some players and helping the O line, etc.   Ertz and Ekeler.

 

I know among the draftees -- Sainstrill known as a vocal leader and mentor.  Coleman is vocal.   McCaffrey comes off as polished already as Terry.

 

Listening to his colllege coach, Sinnott, comes off a bit of a character, prankster, etc -- so his similarities to Cooley might transcend just his ply

 

 

I feel like a lot of good TE's are either quirky characters or more straight laced do the job. It's an odd duck position. So

Tony G was kind of both. But Gates (I think) and Witten were straight laced.

Kelce, Kittle, and Gronk were a bit more odd ducks. Old school but Jeremy Shockey was an odd duck.

At a certain point shifting from the hyper physical blocking in the mix to juking LB's and trying to out run safeties requires an unusual mindset.

21 hours ago, oraphus said:

I refuse to believe that Doctson went from pretty good rookie year to be being below average overnight. much more apt to blame Bienimes idiotic Offensive scheme/ game plan and general teams ineptitude under Rivera. The team pretty much gave up.

I am looking for a big time rebound from Doctson. Forbes i am less optimistic about.. but i hope Quinn can. at least make his serviceable.

Wiley was a below average starter in KC.. and has gotten worse here with less talented players around him. I'd move him to guard maybe or promote him to towel boy 

Doctson vs Dotson. Both 1st rounders. One was a bust and out of the league, the other we hope is not.

2 hours ago, ixcuincle said:

no need to rush him 

He has a 1.000+ OPS, at this point we can't say he's being rushed. This isn't a Jackson Holliday thing where he gets moved up after his first 10 or so days of the season. Wood has played 38 games in AAA this season.

As the last line of that blurb says, do we really expect to get any trade value from Gallo, Rosario, or Robles? They're all DFA candidates instead of trade bait.

3 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I was afraid that Daniels might be a bit too obsessed with social media presence and all that but it seems like he's actually more of a workaholic nerd that is obsessed with football. Traits you want in your QB.

He's certainly not RG3 trying to promote a (harmless) side hustle immediately of selling novelty socks.

10 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Is this chart career or just 2024?

I'll post the past 3 years where they think he had a large enough sample size:

5 minutes ago, Dan T. said:

 

Uggghhh.

At least today Riley Adams is catching (with Ruiz as DH)

15 hours ago, CRobi21 said:

Ugh. Don't think we can rely on Ruiz being the catcher of the future. Seems like what he provides behind the plate has decreased every year since the trade here.
 

His constant giving up on pitches on the edge of the zone drives me crazy. Ball is in the zone on pitch track and he doesn't bother to even frame it...

 

His arm strength looks no where near MLB level either

I really hope Rizzo and Davey acknowledge the sunk cost and move on.

In 2023, 96% of MLB catchers were faster in pop time than he was. That's awful, they made changes and...

In 2024, now 99% of MLB catchers are faster in pop time. This is who he is. He's slow at everything he does.

For reference, pop time is: "How quickly, in seconds, a catcher can get the ball out of his glove and to the base on a stolen base or pickoff attempt."

He's not an MLB level athlete.

• 99% of hitters have a faster bat speed than him. If he was on the qualified hitter list, he'd have the 4th slowest bat speed in all of baseball.
• 99% of catchers have a faster pop time.
• 97% of baserunners have a faster sprint speed than him.

Here's his 2024 statcast page. He swings so slowly that he's better at making contact with the ball. But that contact is terrible contact. So he doesn't strike out. Yay.

22 minutes ago, ixcuincle said:

he would instantly be better than the lerners 

and wow... Nats games that people can actually watch on TV? 

What makes you think ownership change would come with prying TV rights away from MASN? I would love to hear otherwise, but as far as I know MASN has full control.

MLB has new bat tracking data:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/bat-tracking?attackZone=&batSide=&contactType=&count=&dateStart=&dateEnd=&gameType=&groupBy=&isHardHit=&minSwings=100&minGroupSwings=1&pitchHand=&pitchType=&seasonStart=&seasonEnd=&team=120&type=batter

Why am I not surprised that Ruiz has the lowest bat speed and Blast numbers?

This really does make CJ Abrams look like an extension priority though.

1 hour ago, Ball Security said:

Yeah, the organization should be commended for how they developed especially with his back situation.

 

I do like the idea of Hassell, Pickney, Crews, House, and Morales playing together. But I think it’s time for Hassell to AAA and House up there midseason.

 

I don’t know how you can’t get excited about future after the Orioles series and today.

For fielders, especially now that we're so aggressive on the basepaths, definitely excited. I'm hoping this shifts some of what we focus on scouting wise for the draft. I've said this before, but I think it'll be the new moneyball.

For pitchers though? It's a bit more murky. We have a potential guy in A+, and a pair of intriguing 19 year olds that are about as raw as can be in A.

What do we do with Trevor Williams? This seems like a classic Sell High moment in a month or two.

2 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

There are a whole bunch of roster moves to make in the coming weeks. On the positional player side alone there are currently three guys who started the season on the roster that are now on the IL: Gallo, Thomas and Robles. One guy who was on the 40 all off season and started on the 60 day DL - Garrett and a stud prospect who has earned a spot - Wood.

 

Thomas’ injury will likely take him through late May and Garrett can stay on the 60 day to about Labor Day weekend.

 

Robles is ready to return. I’d expect him up for the Baltimore series. Call would make the most sense to send down. I think he should be playing CF everyday to build trade value. 
 

Gallo is rehabbing in Fredericksburg. He is not far away. I’d expect Lipscomb to be sent down as Senzel and Vargas are doing a respectable job covering third.

 

Then things get interesting. Rosario seems like it’s obvious that he should go. But they’ve kept him this long. What if today is a sign that he’s going to go on a hot streak? If Wood is brought up, what role does Rosario have? Do you want to take Young and Robles out? I wouldn’t. You’d have Wood, Roble, and Young with Winker DH-ing. 
 

Additionally, roster spots are just tight right now. Do they return Nunez? That’s possible, but Davey doesn’t really use that spot. So, even if you create space, you’ll have someone getting very few PAs.

 

I can’t see them sending Young down at this point.

 

Meneses has an option, but I think it’d be tough to send him down. He should be nowhere near the cleanup spot, and he doesn’t provide the power that you want at 1B/DH, but he gives you professional ABs and is well liked in the club house. It’s a tough business, but I could see him being out of luck when Garrett and Thomas are ready if Gallo is healthy.

 

This has been a fun team to watch this first month plus. I’m often critical of Martinez, but I think he’s doing a really good job with them even if I disagree with some of his moves.

 

It was awesome listening to Winker in his postgame talking about the organization. They’ve come a long, long way in two years.

 

On the farm notes: Rutledge pitched six scoreless innings and it appears that Hassell may be moving up to AAA on Tuesday as Robles returns.

I saw that Hassell has been hot lately! As has House, but in a different way. House seems to be more consistently getting his raw power onto the ball.

Is this just Hassell speculation, or are they actually talking about moving him up?

4 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

He lied, that was always an insanely stupid pick. Bates was a reach too, but at least had some utility. We haven't drafted a TE w/the upside of Sinnott and his floor since Reed a decade ago, it's been a long, ugly slog of JAG's, and this was despite there being good classes in '17, '19, and '23 in particular. Not a smart franchise the last four decades. Hopefully times are a changin, certainly feels like it. 

It didn't help that the beat writers gassed up Cole Turner too us too.

Anyone have any idea how to read this or the methodology for how they rank it? It's pretty different from what they would post for the Top 100, which makes it really interesting.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/minor-league-power-rankings/nationals

For reference, here's the end of 2023's minor league rankings:

Just trying to figure out however the stats are combined into this ranking system could be indicative of future success. Cause Jacob Young being 2nd in 2023 has certainly panned out. Does this portend well to Lara (who fell off most org Top 30 rankings in 2023) and Glasser?

1 hour ago, Ball Security said:

Twice tonight Williams has loaded the bases with 0 outs and has pitched his way out of trouble.

 

The offense is too light. Would love to see Wood and Stone up. 
 

I’d give Winker a 1st baseman’s mitt and see if he can play there. Have an OF of Wood, Young, and Thomas with Garrett at DH.

You wouldn't think a Shutout would be led by an ugly outing from the Starter, but it happened. A WHIP of 1.8 and somehow it never happened. Helps that the Bullpen is turning into something nice.

For the Beebe lovers here, can be play Center? Cowboys fans are saying he'll compete for starting Center job.

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

All three can be released and I wouldn't bat an eye. 

The overhauled kickoff probably means you want more LB's and TE's than Safeties and Corners for those plays.

6 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

He has the exact same arm length and wingspan as All Pro tackle Rashawn Slater.  His arms are actually longer than Morgan's.  He was a better prospect than Morgan, especially considering Morgan tore his ACL.  Sometimes there isn't a rhyme or reason for why guys with a first round profile end up on day 2.  Cosmi is one of those cases.  So is JerZhan Newton.

Slater needs to bounce back. His rookie season was his best season, and his lack of length/width becomes apparent at times when his pass protection issues crop up.

I wouldn't count Slater as a success story yet.

Loving the base stealing extravaganza we have.

Jacob Young is 3rd in WAR for us this season. If this is the best version of himself, then he's a pretty good starting CF in MLB.

On 4/28/2024 at 8:54 PM, Conn said:

This isn’t really about Sinnott, but I dislike that players who don’t have all their measurables on the record can have a full RAS score. You can’t really compare his RAS to LaPorta’s because LaPorta’s takes into account his insane 3-cone and SS. If you don’t have agility scores, idk how you can have a fair composite RAS. At best you should have a weight-adjusted Speed Score or something. 
 

Anyways, love Sinnott, loved the pick, think he’ll be great. It’s not about him, just a gripe I have with the RAS charts. 

That is an issue that I also hate. They estimate likely scores based on other measurements and use that to make the full RAS. Which isn't something that should be done.

Just to clarify though, you do know Sinnott did every test except bench press right? Sinnott's SS and 3cone were a smidge better than LaPorta. He's also a tiny bit bigger, but probably not enough to matter for much.

17 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

Cosmi was a better prospect than Coleman, and a better athlete.  Coleman has a better vertical, but Cosmi's broad jump was better and his 40 and agility drill times are about as elite as it gets.  In 2021, Cosmi had the second best OT RAS since 1987.  It's pretty crazy that we were able to get him in the second round.  Jordan Morgan, Tyler Guyton, and Troy Fautanu were all much lesser prospects than Cosmi was, and they went in the first.  We got lucky with Cosmi.

I disagree with this. While Cosmi's athleticism was never in question his size was. His length and wingspan were always too small for an OT.

It was always a knock on him as a prospect with a Guard conversion likely. If he actually had an OT body his athleticism would have gone in Round 1 instead of late Round 2.

For reference, I believe Jordan Morgan's wingspan is closer to average, while Cosmi's is something like 15th percentile.

Oh, apparently our 10th rounder from last years draft, Phillip Glasser, was just promoted to A+. We've got 2 recently drafted guys highlighted in an article on the Athletic:

21 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

As a member of Maye Nation I have to say…I think we may have simply over valued him and under valued Daniels. By just about every count JD5 was QB2 in this draft, not Maye who only a small minority preferred. Nothing is guaranteed of course, but this was the right pick. Im fully on board(but do think Maye will also end up being good if the Pats develop him properly).

Speak for yourself, I simply overvalued both of them. My QB rankings were (and this might wind up egregiously stupid) Maye > Daniels > Williams for the Top 3.

18 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Still bums me out that the Chiefs took Saumatia just a few picks before, but Coleman has some potential. I think you gotta try him at T first and if it doesn't work, then you kick him inside. 

I wasn't as enamored about Suamataia as most here, but for reference here's the RAS compare.