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TradeTheBeal!

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Posts posted by TradeTheBeal!

  1. We have to maintain and foster economic activity to some degree.  State tax revenue funds our police, our fire depts, our utility infrastructure and many, many other essential municipal services.

     

    As we do this, we have to acknowledge the terrible outcomes that this disease can manifest if left unchecked.  So, schools/packed pubs/concerts and especially churches (they pay no taxes) must remain closed or highly regulated.

     

    And we will do this tap-dance until there is an effective treatment/vaccine or until the virus mutates in a way that gives us a break.  There are no easy answers or solutions...none.  No amount of inflexible political bluster will make this reality go away.

    • Like 5
  2. 22 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

     

    Yes, and we locked down states since early-March (I think) in order to give the health care system a chance to ramp up. Aren't we to a point now where we can let it operate?

     

    We?  It was done on a state by state basis.  Often in direct opposition to the President’s Twitter account.

     

    You really think Arkansas and Alabama have spent the last 6 weeks legitimately “ramping up” for a worst case scenario?  Cause I would be very skeptical of that assertion.

    • Thanks 2
  3. 9 minutes ago, China said:

     

    So does that mean there will be some good deals available for buying low mileage used rental cars?

     

    Almost certainly, at some point Hertz will dump some fleet. They’ve already started moving some of there newish luxury stuff on their website.

     

    Soon, an extinction-level cataclysm of Kia Souls and Nissan Sentras will rain down upon us.

    • Haha 2
  4. Sweet Pies, ranked.

     

    1) Mixed Berry. Served warm ala mode.
    2) Chocolate Silk.
    3) Strawberry. In season.
    4) Cherry. Served warm ala mode.
    5) Key Lime. Preferably in Key West.

     

    • Like 1
  5. 21 minutes ago, Califan007 said:

     

     

    That's not the math, though.

     

    You don't need 5 asymptomatic carriers...you just need one. Depending on the R-value (which has been reported to be as high as 3 over the last month or so), one person can lead to over 2,000 infected people in just 10 rounds. And the R-value appears to be higher from "superspreading events" like attending churches and nightclubs where people congregate. Only, church services last a few hours and nightclubs one evening. What is going on in the video is something that will last 3 days, increasing the likelihood of transmission.

     

     

    By the way, full disclosure...found out last night that my niece and cousin both tested positive COVID-19 about a month ago. They have since recovered and I'm eternally thankful for that. My niece is a scientist, not sure what my cousin is doing now but she used to be with the Obama administration...and both are relatively young. Both became moms last year.

     

    I am well aware that spreading can and will occur beyond this.  I was just trying to grade out the direct impact of the pool party.

     

    Mojo to your nieces.

  6. 1 hour ago, Larry said:

     

    I'll take that bet.  

     

    Danger is my middle name.

     

    1 hour ago, Larry said:

     

    Odds that a single person who goes to that event, spends the next 10 days self-quarantining?

     

    Zero.  But they don’t have to Self-quarantine.  Just wear your mask, dig in at home/work and chill.  Especially if you start feeling symptoms.  “Super Spreaders” are fairly rare, I think.

     

    1 hour ago, Larry said:

     

    They didn't learn from the first 100K dead.  Odds that they learn from the second?  

     

    I’m assuming that the Ozarks pool is in Arkansas, or some such.  So, that 100K hasn’t really touched them at all.  Next 100K could be very revelatory for Ozarks Party Guy.

     

    Speaking of Zero, the broader point is this.  The chances that 100,000 horny, 20-something Arkansas-ians?? are gonna spend all Summer social distancing because Dr. Fauci says so is, in fact, absolutely Zero.

     

    They’re going to have to learn the hard way.  We all know it’s true.

  7. I’ll do the math on that video...

     

    Lets say 80% are young and very low risk.  Other 20% are 45+ and/or have assorted comorbidities.  Let’s say 1500 people in that shot.

     

    IF, big IF, there are 5 asymptomatic carriers there...cause these folks aren’t completely brain dead.  Nobody is showing up there with a 101 fever, hacking all over the place.  Factor in some breezy sunshine and warm temps.  Then those five will infect say 100 people.  Of that 100, you’ll get 90 that fight it off, 10 that go to the hospital and 2 that die.

     

    Now that’s not good...at all.  But, it’s not an apocalyptic event as a special occasion/holiday deal...especially if all the attendees spend the next 8-10 days masked up.

     

    The issue is doing this kind of thing all day, every day all summer long.  That 2% is gonna add up quick.  

     

    If I had to guess, I’d say that the math of the “new normal” is gonna put a damper on pool season pretty quick.

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