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They've just spent 6+ months watching their people tortured and killed, their country get ravaged, the Russians lying about who they are.

I'm not advocating for Ukraine to invade Russia, but I would understand it. The fear, of course, is that Russia would use nukes on them. I wonder if that will be enough to keep Ukraine from extracting a pound of flesh. Maybe taking back all occupied territory, including Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea, will be enough. Maybe forcing Russia to pay reparations under threat of continued fighting. I don't think those are off the table.

I could see Russia saying "You can't invade us, we aren't at war with you!", if Ukraine pushes them out entirely and continues across the previous. Their hypocrisy knows no limit.

I wonder if there are discussions about this happening at the UN.

46 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

After all we have seen I’d be a fool to underestimate Russias ineptitude but it seems a little suspicious to me that Ukraine can all of a sudden Russia in, and then Russia announces they are pulling out of Kharkiv….. just seems like a set up.

 

There were a few articles posted in this thread, I think in July, that predicted that the Russian military would collapse in late August. It was based on troop loss/fatigue, morale, and logistical challenges. They were off by a bit, and I don't think we're seeing a total collapse (yet), but maybe they were on to something. Here's hoping.

Edit:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-media-admits-vladimir-putins-worst-case-scenario-in-ukraine-war-is-coming-true

Quote

In the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin’s top propagandists predicted a swift victory and derided the Ukrainian military as an unwilling bunch of incompetents. As the war dragged on, they continued to claim that Volodymyr Zelensky’s government was about to fall. Faced with Ukraine’s mounting counteroffensive, which is rapidly achieving impressive gains, Russian propagandists are now describing an enormous horde, armed with the best Western weaponry and swimming in foreign specialists.

 

With state TV studios full of doom and gloom, prominent pundits and experts seem to be preparing Russian audiences for future losses of occupied Ukrainian lands, which are being painstakingly reclaimed by the Ukrainian military. During Wednesday’s broadcast of the state TV show 60 Minutes, host Evgeny Popov said: “We wish courage to our warriors, who are indeed doing very important work, they are resisting an enormous horde that has been trained in the West.”

 

Evgeny Buzhinsky, a retired Lieutenant-General of the Russian Armed Forces, claimed that the Ukrainian military is overflowing with American participants: “There are not only advisers, but specialists. I think that there are thousands of American advisers and specialists on the ground in Ukraine, they’re probably present in every unit.”

We're Russia's boogeyman

Quite the headline

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-3

I just found this today, lots of detail about the current situation

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces conducted unsuccessful assaults southeast and southwest of Izyum and west of Lyman but remain unlikely to secure major advances towards Slovyansk.
• Russian forces made minor gains in the eastern part of Severodonetsk, but Ukrainian forces continues to launch localized counterattacks in Severodonetsk and its outskirts.
• Russian forces did not attempt to launch assaults on Avdiivka.
• Russian forces failed to regain lost positions in northeastern Kherson Oblast and continued to defend previously occupied positions.
• Russian occupation authorities began issuing Russian passports in Kherson City and Melitopol, though they continue to face challenges establishing societal control over occupied territories and ending Ukrainian partisan actions.

It's not so fun watching another team make 3 after 3, I'd imagine

https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/explaining-electric-plug-hybrid-electric-vehicles

Just sayin'

It's frustrating that even with a clear threat, leftists/Democrats/centrists in this country can't stop blaming each other. Susan Sarandon is trending on twitter, with people laying blame (deservedly) at her feet for some of this, and others defending her to the hilt and pointing out how elected Democrats failed to prevent this (also fair). I get it's an emotional time, but seriously. Figure out who is really at fault (the right wing/conservatives). Put your focus on them. Work on getting enough reasonable people elected to turn this around. The infighting is such a bad look, at a time when the left/center needs to figure out how to be unified.

6 hours ago, Larry said:

Theres some Republican politicians who I'd be happy to ship there. Save the assassins a trip. 

The right wing/Russian propaganda is so pernicious. I drive through Western Pennsylvania frequently. One of the small towns I go through has a couple of electronic billboards that constantly display right wing garbage. One of the images that popped up as I drove past yesterday was the words "Putin's Puppy", with a miniature Biden sitting in Putin's lap. The projection, denial of reality, and general stupidity of it all was mind boggling. I'm sure they dismiss Trump calling Putin a genius as fake news. Anything that doesn't fit the narrative is dismissed out of hand.

It's been like this for years, by the way, constant propaganda broadcast to the region. It's working. Lots of Trump flags, people buying into the narrative. Fox news, right wing radio, they're convincing people that aren't politically savvy (to be kind) to ignore the evidence of their eyes and ears.

14 minutes ago, tshile said:

Wait I thought there were restrictions on converting to/from rubles both inside Russia as well as any of the countries participating in sanctions??

 

i wanted to buy some cause it was obvious (to me) that the fall was far too much and one way or another it’d bounce back soon (not to where they were but it was obvious it’s bounce back a bit) but couldn’t cause it’s not allowed?!?

 

The Europeans were using the idea of using rubles as way to declare default on contracts. Since contracts stipulated euros. 

I hope you don't buy rubles. I agree that there's money to be made. But every ruble purchase creates a bit of demand, which helps restore their economy. Profiting off of Ukraine's tragedy is not something I'm comfortable with.

The same goes for Europe and Russian gas and other products, of course on a much larger scale. We collectively have to stop funding Putin, if we want to stop enabling him.

I know it isn't going to happen, but if Ukraine was able to fully repel the invasion, take back Crimea, and even grab some Russian territory, how great that would be.

My hope for Russia:

https://twitter.com/ElBeardsley/status/1509468052202692611

2 hours ago, LD0506 said:

 

I don't want either one.

 

I'd like to see this resolved long before winter by the Russian people.

 

If forced to pick a side I am with Ukraine, but the side I'd like to have an option on is "No one is digging mass graves"

There already are mass graves in Mariupol. No more mass graves sounds good, but what will convince the Russians to stop?

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Russia has already been "hit", you seen their economy and panic buying?  The second the stock market reopens thats going to be a different country overnight, why they keep pushing it off. They don't need bombs to get any message that this isn't going well.

 

Military can't remove Putin, that's a coup that could lead to a civil war, what you want is their version of impeachment, which still is unlikely considering the number of loyalist left in Russia still.

 

Saying Ukraine attacking targets in Russia could galvanize Russian peoples support of Putin flies right in the face of encouraging them to then get rid of him.

 

Be patient.

They did reopen their stock market, though with limits in place (like no foreign holders being allowed to sell until today)

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-business-europe-stock-markets-f5653a258caf9c9ad100b853b81317b2

It hasn't dropped as precipitously as I'd hoped. They seem to have staved off the complete collapse that was expected, sadly.

That's the thing, between the Russian ability to absorb suffering, and the iron-fisted management, they just might scrape through this. And the takeaway will be, we can do what we want, we just have to outlast the West. It's frustrating to watch happen.

39 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

 

And yes, it's somewhat "appeasing" but at this point Russia's conventional army isn't scaring anyone so now we gotta just chill out and let them play China's junior partner for a few years until Putin dies in his sleep (being 2 years from average Russian male life expectancy anyway), get some actual true post-Soviet leadership in there and then we can re-engage.

That sounds great, except that the Russian takeaway, if it goes down like that, is that they can invade their neighbors, and deal with short term pain while it's ongoing. They can continue to grab what they're able, commit as many war crimes as they like, pretend that NATO is the problem, and retool for the next go around. Who knows how much longer Putin will live and be in power. If it's 15 or 20 more years, how much more damage can he do? Kicking the can down the road is the expedient answer. We shouldn't be looking for those anymore, that's what got us in this situation.

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling

A long (and really good) article about why Putin is doing what he is doing:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/12/putins-thousand-year-war/

Some excerpts

Quote

All this history is key to understanding Putin’s delusional view that Ukraine is not, and can never be, a separate country and “never had a tradition of genuine statehood.” Putin made this plain in a Feb. 21 speech, three days before the invasion, and in a 6,800-word essay from July 2021 titled “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.” In that essay, he reached back more than 10 centuries to explain why he was convinced that “Russians and Ukrainians were one people—a single whole.” He claimed it was important to understand that Russians and Ukrainians, along with Belarusians, “are all descendants of Ancient Rus, which was the largest state in Europe.” Putin wrote: “The spiritual choice made by St. Vladimir … still largely determines our affinity today.”

 

Some scholars believe this obsession with long-ago history is why Putin, who during his two decades in power was often thought to be a wily and restrained tactician, made the biggest miscalculation of his career in invading Ukraine. In doing so, he united, in one reckless move, the Ukrainians and the Europeans as well as the rest of the world against him. “He didn’t realize that even most of the Russian-language speakers in eastern Ukraine see themselves now as Ukrainian—that over the past 30 years, the Ukrainians had formed their own country. He didn’t realize that their sense of identity had changed,” said Peter Eltsov, a professor at National Defense University and author of the new book The Long Telegram 2.0: A Neo-Kennanite Approach to Russia. “He also killed all the progress he was making in dividing Europe. Even Finland and Sweden, which had been neutral, are now talking about joining NATO. He achieved the 100 percent opposite result of what he wanted.”

Quote

Putin’s historical focus is also meant to convey his deeply entrenched belief that Russia is a distinct civilization that has little in common with the West. This is a key element of “Eurasianism,” a Russian imperial ideology that is more than 100 years old but today has been directed at what Putin and his supporters see as the “philistinism” of the West and the corruption of its democracies, said Kelly O’Neill, a historian of Russia at Harvard University. She suggested that Putin’s reluctance to fully integrate modern Russia into the global economy—beyond selling it a lot of oil and gas—is based on the Eurasianist belief that Russia and its dominions are “distinct economies that belong to this beautiful imperial whole. It’s a defensive mechanism. If you integrate, then you become more vulnerable. Their view is, ‘We’re fortress Russia. We don’t need anyone else.’”

 

This attitude also has profound roots in Russian history, especially the Russian belief that Orthodox Christianity is superior to the West’s liberalized Christianity, which Putin and other conservative Russians view as corrupted by Enlightenment ideas. In the early 19th century, the Russian answer to the French Revolution’s Enlightenment creed, “Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité (Freedom, Equality, Fraternity), was “Orthodoxy, Autocracy, and Nationality”—which Sergey Uvarov, minister of public education to Tsar Nicholas I, formulated as the conceptual foundation of the Russian Empire.

Quote

Graham and other Russia experts said it is a mistake to view Putin merely as an angry former KGB apparatchik upset at the fall of the Soviet Union and NATO’s encroachment after the Cold War, as he is often portrayed by Western commentators. Putin, himself, made this clear in his Feb. 21 speech, when he disavowed the Soviet legacy, inveighing against the mistakes made by former leaders Vladimir Lenin and Joseph Stalin to grant Ukraine even partial autonomy. On the contrary, Putin and other Russian nationalists today see Marxism-Leninism as just another regrettable Western import.

 

Putin is rather a messianic Russian nationalist and Eurasianist whose constant invocation of history going back to Kievan Rus, however specious, is the best explanation for his view that Ukraine must be part of Russia’s sphere of influence, experts say. In his essay last July, Putin even suggested that the formation of a separate, democratic Ukrainian nation “is comparable in its consequences to the use of weapons of mass destruction against us.”

There's a lot more, I'm trying not to quote too much of the article. Their finishing statement is that if Russian leadership tried to embrace democracy, Russia would likely cease to exist. So this anti-Western mindset is a survival mechanism for them.

No excuses for what they're doing, just trying to understand the mindset that leads to this craziness.

It's a major sign of weakness that Russia is asking for China's help, they must be really desperate. I wonder if that means they're running out of missiles and bombs, since that seems to be what is working best for them now. That, and arresting anything that appears to be dissent.

China has been broadcasting pro-Russian information on their state television, China and Russia do tend to support each other. I guess we'll see how far that extends. Xi and Vlad enjoy not having to do that pesky "transfer of power" thing, though some appear to think that isn't a big deal in terms of differentiating between nations. I happen to think that it does make a difference, a huge difference, for whatever that is worth.

7 minutes ago, dunfer said:

Why would we be downplaying russian loses? thats what its implying right?

I don't think our intel agencies intentionally downplay their KIA. I think they're cautious, wanting verifiable deaths. The situation on the ground is what it is, the different estimates don't matter.

It is frustrating that, on the one hand, days ago the talk was how the Russian logistics were all screwed up, they don't have food or fuel and are running out of ammo, yet the reality is they're still attacking, still shelling, not giving up. So it can't be but so dire for them. I certainly hope that they run out of everything and have to surrender, it just isn't happening like that. Yet.

2 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

What ever the deal is with the jets, it is incredibly week.

It's like we're in a days. Hour priorities are all messed up. It's frustrating that we're saying the right things, but we don't really minute. I just hope the Ukrainians can second destroy the Russian army.