Ghost of

Just now, Dah-Dee said:

 

I think that's what Warner is getting at; he thinks, like multiple other analysts have noted, that McCarthy is a 'one-speed' thrower, that unlike the other top QB prospects he has trouble changing speeds to suit the play.

I understand that and I'm saying that's cool, he isn't polished and he showed touch in the Purdue deep throw at the beginning of his video. But he definitely overdoes it.  The issue is this typically results in lower completion percentages---but it hasn't for him and he improved over 2022.  

But my point about that was that he has an arm and it's a very good arm in terms of strength. There are people trying to turn him into some noodle armed game manager and it's beyond ridiculous.  It's simply not backed up by even a cursory glance at his tape. You can't be a one speed thrower who throws with obvious velocity and also Mr. Beach Ball "adequate arm." You can't be both those things unless there's an injury in there.

This is Kurt's breakdown of McCarthy's Purdue game. Here we have an issue I'd point out with scouting (not just Kurt but in general):

One of Kurt's critiques of McCarthy is most of his throws come out at "100 mph" (or some such phrasing.) Here's the thing---no one accused Chad Pennington of lasering throws. He couldn't at least not 20 yards down the field. He could get it there, he was a very good QB but he was not strong armed.  Brad Johnson after the "dead arm" was no longer throwing with strength. Brunell in 2004 had a bad hamstring apparently and was useless almost the entire season.  You don't get accused of rocketing balls if you can't throw fast and far. You can question if someone is good with touch and loft--that's perfectly legitimate. But his arm is very strong, it's why he was a 5 star QB recruit.  

Another problem I have (not with Kurt's analysis) is that he selects Purdue because he threw over 30 times.  But McCarthy's best throwing game in 2023 was probably MSU. He cut them up real good and showed off how good he is at throwing intermediate over LBs and other defenders and in front of safeties. After that game he was the Heisman front runner according to Vegas odds.

4 minutes ago, illone said:

 

 

This is why I am high on JJ McCarthy. I think Harbaugh was right when he said JJ plays "Quarterback" the best. I think he projects to a great NFL career if he goes to the right spot that can develop his strengths and fill in some of the mechanical issues he displayed previously. I've noticed many posters claim that Maye/Daniels will improve, so why aren't the same assumptions made for JJ? 

It's sort of an insult too because JJ McCarthy can absolutely zing it and takes chances (regardless of his INTs or completion percentage.) I don't see Alex Smith tendencies from him at all, though I get why some might say that (sort of but not really.) 

Another thing people aren't seeing is that with all the times JJ sat in the 4th, his numbers look much better when taken per quarter or whatever.  And people are still holding his injury (the one he battled through and won a national championship on) to his ankle/lower leg against him. "Why did they just run the ball the entire second half?" 

Well, McCarthy was hurt and it was the safest way in a week where they were ambushed by their own conference that's bought and paid for (oddly not by Michigan, you'd think so but it's not true) to get through to the end of the game.  His Maryland game was tough for similar reasons. I started to see improvement by Ohio State and Purdue but he clearly was having issues throwing.  

And frankly, I'm getting irritated with the arm comments.  Now, maybe he generated a lot of torque with his body for his throw at the combine but you'd think more people would be trying to do that. He absolutely does need more reps and proper tutelage and patience, but he's 21 and I think has the most upside. 

He's not perfect but he is better at moving in the pocket and using it to pass the ball and on the run he keeps his eyes downfield usually. He also avoids big hits, he has a sixth sense about avoiding the big crushing blows for the most part.  

38 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

 

 

 

 

RIP Nordberg. We lost a real one.

18 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

For McCarthy fans, I get it, lot to like there. I thought going into the combine that he was maybe the biggest mystery at QB (not counting Penix's medical reports), and he did show off a good arm. He also apparently wowed teams in interviews. So I get the love.

 

I guess maybe he still "feels" like one of those really good college QBs who never quite pan out in the NFL.  Scouting reports don't do him many favors there, with some of the same issues popping up repeatedly:

 

 

- Above average arm strength is evident on film. He's not really a guy who's going to wow NFL scouts with his arm. 

- Due to the Wolverines' strong running game over the last few years, McCarthy's ability as a passer was limited. He'll need to improve in his area to take another step forward. 

- Needs to process the field better. He gets stuck sometimes on just one wide receiver. Instead, he needs to scan the whole field and deliver a quick, accurate throw. 

- Must improve as a deep ball passer. He doesn't have the biggest arm so he can't push the ball down the field. But he will need to improve his deep ball in order to take his game to another level. 

This is why I'm citing his combine velocity.  Distance throwing is really down to velocity and arc.  If you can throw just under Milton's 62mph, you can throw as far as need be --

unless it's about things like grip on the ball, proper mechanics when throwing deep, etc.  So I'm open to him needing to figure out the best arc on a deep ball.

Also, he has absolute rocket throws while on the run, when his base is not set where you'd be relying on your arm. or even what he did in the Rose Bowl making the leaping grap and tossing it while floating backwards to Wilson down the field.  So I'm saying I disagree with some of the 'scouting takes' because physics dictates that if you can throw at 62 mph, and are known for lasers up to 20-25 yards, that it must be down to some other aspect in terms of not throwing deep but "arm" is not one of them. 

Winning matters so little, that you can win your own state as a Sophomore with a broken thumb, win a national title with IMG (where elite athletes tend to go) be a five-star and Michigan's best recruit since Drew Henson, have great metrics, be young with a lot of starts, overcome your mistakes you made in your only loss in your career, supplant the guy who got the team past Ohio State and to the CFP, beat Stroud on the road in 22, win the national title with an injured leg that takes you from Heisman favorite on October 23rd (after MSU game) to "no one is entertaining this guy as a 1st round pick lol".

I remember the famous Mike Singletary speech: "I don't want winners, nor do I want people who want to win! Nor do I want guys with good predictive metrics or physical talent."

9 minutes ago, illone said:

 

 

JJ beats Maye in most of those categories.  Especially those the NFL cares about: 3rd down, 4th down, accuracy, etc.

 

Nothing to see here, though. Back to the Maye love fest😂

Yes, people keep having this argument because other people (who almost never watched college football more than casually and certainly did not follow Michigan) told them you can't take X, Y, Z seriously and therefore it's just between the two guys. 

You know it's funny, near the end of the season, I don't know anyone who thought Daniels was a top 3 guy (as in top 3 picks.) Now he is. People just rolled over on it.  But if someone suggests McCarthy, the younger-than-Maye even, the best all-around metrics, former five-star with 4.5 speed and the fifth fastest shuttle at the combine (of all positions) state and national HS champion and now college champion is worthy of consideration---no, nope. Can't do it.

12 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Right. Like I said. He completed two little 4 yard passes and we’re going to do all these mental gymnastics to convince ourselves that he deserves to be a top two pick because of it.

Have you read any of the posts relating to advanced metrics? Or his velocity on his throws? Or the anecdotal stuff about his film work and recognition, winning and making plays to win games? His athletic ability, throwing off platform, manipulating the pocket, his age?

If anything, we have to do gymnastics on the two non-Caleb Williams prospects. 

And also, there are a bunch of games in 2022 and 2023 to look at, I've even examined bits of them and you're just showing your ignorance.

Why did he supplant McNamara? Why did Harbaugh call him the greatest to come out of Michigan (he came out of Michigan, by the way, and he was actually a pro QB)? Why was it obvious that he was more talented than McNamara if anyone could lead the team and he didn't do anything? Did you know that he did told other recruits to go somewhere else if they wanted to party, that they were there to bring Michigan back to glory (he didn't need to start doing something at 530am this year, he was doing it from the beginning)? Why are almost all of his advanced metrics the best of any QB or at least in strong competition with the top prospects if it's mental gymnastics?

If there's

4 minutes ago, illone said:

 

4-5 wins?  I dont know about that… Nussmeier played well vs an underrated wisconsin defense in the bowl game. Not saying Nussy is better by any stretch but he isnt 5 losses worse than Jayden. 

"they'd have won a title if not for the defense"

Alexa, what's "complementary football?"

3 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I wouldn’t say he led that drive. My recollection is that Michigan took over 1st and 10 from their own 25 down by 7 with their season on the line and the coaches proceeded to call two run plays and then JJ threw one right into a defender on 3rd down and then a little dink pass on a speed out in the flat to a motioning Blake Corum that he took for 30 yards. His only other completions on the drive were a tipped pass that fell into the hands of a wide open receiver and a TD pass from the 4 yard line.

 

Saying he led the drive is just people trying to convince themselves that he did more than he ever actually did which is the whole story on this kid.

 

Typically when a guy is playing QB and comes from behind to win a game, he is described as leading a drive if he throws it at all. The Corum pass is easily one Drake Maye may have dirtballed (McNabb was a good pro QB and did that all the time).  The tipped pass did not "Fall" into the hands of the wide open receiver, he was open (and was being thrown to) and he leaped to make the catch. Don't diminish both McCarthy and Roman Wilson. 

And wait, did you say he threw what would be the game-tying TD Pass? Curious, what do we call that when other QBs do it?

Imagine thinking being down by a TD late in the game against Alabama and Nick Saban in the Rose Bowl doesn't require leadership from a quarterback and that just anyone could do it.

So, as you know, I've detailed how McCarthy was a Heisman contender (not that he would have won) before he hurt his ankle during the Penn State game (which is why they ran the entire second half and leaned on the run during the Harbaugh suspension after that.)

Apparently, before the State championship game as a sophomore he had broken the thumb on his throwing hand.  He threw for 300+ and multiple TDs and won the game with his team (the State title in Illinois.)  It was some time before the news of the injury came out.

Yet he goes out there and performs, makes enough key plays to win titles.  You guys know he was a five star recruit and threw a 61 mph ball at the combine (just behind Joe Milton and I believe Mahomes has thrown at 62mph as well)? He has an arm maybe he needs to improve some aspect of his motion to get more distance.  He has processing ability, that is a pro offense, run heavy but pro at Michigan. He is 21 and part of drafting QB now is projecting traits including processing, leadership, toughness.  His mom won't be going to the concussion protocol tent, although I'm sure he loves his mother very much.

*In before "he's injury prone!"*

2 hours ago, Llevron said:

 

Yea I feel like that was his worst game passing. Dude was very sus but no one agrees with me. 

*dons bronzer* "I like quarterbacks who beat Nick Saban in the Rose Bowl and have to lead a comeback drive to do it."

16 minutes ago, HogsVa7 said:

Some of you guys are going to get your feelings hurt when we draft Daniels. It's obvious what we're going to do. The free agent signings has a lot to do with how we are improving the team. They have clearly said we are not in a rebuild mode but we are going to be competitive and compete for Super Bowls. Drake Maye doesn't do anything for us this year if he's on this team. He has a lot of work to do. He doesn't have the IT factor. He's not a game changer at all. Some of yall think I'm trolling,  but im not. I've seen just about all his games because I'm a die hard Uva fan which lol.... doesn't say much but they beat him, so I've seen plenty of ACC football this year. Stay away from him. His mechanics is awful and just with the eye test he doesn't have it. Jayden Daniels right now fits us better especially with Kliff Kingsbury system.  A lot of you guys always project for the future. It's always next year and build for the future. The Snyder era has gotten to yall. Their is a new regime and they're ready to roll. It Daniels. 

Although I think of some of your post is a little antagonistic, I think you touch on something to consider.  

Is the new NFL approach to QBs to get early success under the first contract and perhaps be content the guy is not an all-time great? If that's the case, you really would want to compete right out of the game, see if you can win a SB (or at least get there) by year 4.  I disagree with this sort of logic but I have seen some indications and articles that talk about a new approach with QBs, especially since so many are coming in with the ability to extend or win games with their legs.  Yes, you'd prefer a 15 year guy who starts with ability to move and becomes progressively more of a surgeon as he ages and you win a SB or two.  But if you are uncertain about your shot at hitting on "legend" maybe you take a shot on a guy like RG3 (but assuming health) who you could build a scheme around for a few years while they either a) develop into a strong passer or b) you see that they're not it past a certain point and you can move on.

2 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

You know who looks great on that and whose deep adj comp pct is still pretty good? 

5 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

Their metrics say his overall is not good but his improvement is stellar. The GM and HC need to figure out if that’s an outlier or legit growth. 

Yes sorry. Career stats but 2023 clean pocket grade, for example, very very good.

I want a passer at QB, not a guy who "can't work the middle because his <cpu> too little"

Of Dah-dee post above, he clearly ranks poorly in passing predictive stats. That's not good I don't care how good he is running.  I want guys who use the run to set up pass.

Dah-dee thank you!

So he ranks not so great in what they feel are stable measure stats... please someone save this team from itself lol

I also like that a QB is in control of negative plays and they account for year to year differences more attributable to receivers, other variables etc. 

5 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

I think P2S needs far more nuance. I want pressure outcomes on down, distance, play action vs no, how clean is the rest of the pocket during pressure (can the QB step up easily?), then types of passes after pressure, rate of passes etc, then how the sacks happen.

 

Caleb's scrambling against pressure is a negative but the sacks and fumbles are brutal. Whereas Maye and Daniels can feel pressure and then try and escape vertically, fail, but those sacks are lower yardage lost.

 

So also figuring out how bad the sack was for that drive. P2S can have a lot more nuance...and I want that but obviously that's not a free bundle of stats we have access to.

We do sort of.  For instance Daniels only passes on... was it 20% of plays where he was pressured? If a QUARTERBACK is opting not to throw the ball that often due to a pressure, presumably including throwaways (which are usually good plays), then I'm not interested. 

Also P2S ratio may itself constitute a measure that can avoid collinearity. But I agree just taking a look at the specific outcomes would be useful if you're trying to build a model incorporating p2s ratio. 

7 minutes ago, Hooper said:

Hope good coaching and time can overcome this --

*Patrick Bateman meme* Let's see JJ McCarthy's stats...

BTW, velocity, while not the only factor in throwing distance is the most important.

Milton was at 62 mph and McCarthy was 61 mph. While he needs to improve his touch on certain throws, I don't think people are properly rating his arm strength.  He has thrown absurd balls before and I think people critiquing his arm are way off base. 

Also, if Daniels doesn't throw after pressure and doesn't throw off platform, is it not really his running that's the reason he's above Maye or McCarthy? Like aren't we looking for a guy who can operate from and manipulate the pocket,  throw with accuracy on the run etc?

Just now, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

For funsies, QBASE is a stat to peruse to pass the time. But it's not a good one.

 

It had Bryce Young as a superior prospect to CJ Stroud, I think it gave Stroud a bust chance comparable to Maye's while Young was 10% lower? Similarly, it's ratios of Bust, Adequate, Elite, etc show Stroud, Maye, and Kenny Pickett as comparable prospects.

 

Arguably a team needs to determine its own criteria and develop a model they're comfortable with. 

What proportion is P2S ratio going to enter in? If you have a narrative/Qual reason why it is less important you need to apply it even to a non target and determine if you're applying the standard rationally. 

So if a guy doesn't pass over the middle, I don't want to hear gruden talk about how that's not their offense. You have to be confident over the middle in the NFL. I want to see that narrative excuse applied in another case and make sure that the other criteria are still putting distance between a 6th round guy and the top 8 QBs you're looking at. 

Like Milton may have the strongest arm or top 2 in the draft but he's never been a really good QB.

I think teams may want to look into ruling guys out using some model. Like P2S ratio plus pressured dropback rating plus sq root of S2 lol.  Whatever.  At least there you can begin validating your own data model. 

Something that just got recommended to me.  Remember that dude who posted on Twitter about on-target percentage on throws over 25+? Remember how I asked who he was affiliated with,  that it seemed very subjective?

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/jj-mccarthy-might-scare-vikings-key-area-nfl-draft/3ae031391ce6efb4e359dc9a

"Kinnan found, especially since the adjusted accuracy for throws 20+ down the field from Pro Football Focus has him second. That discrepancy tells us that once you get past 25 yards his accuracy decreases dramatically."

That's not what a thinking person would take away from one stat from a respected outfit and another of just 5 yards difference from some dude. That dude may even be right but a thinking person would be skeptical of the guy coming up with his own measures and find it unlikely that 5 yards at that level of depth makes a difference. 

Steve McQueen already talks about Daniels deep balls which makes you wonder how our resident analyst would grade out each throw.

Accidental post in wrong thread 

Sorry both Maye and Daniels had a chart. Maybe it's just a summation of stats we've seen a million times.

Someone telling me bust elite pct doesn't help if I don't see how they derive it,  at least in part. 

Skinsinparadise

Can you post JJ's numbers from the QBASE article since it places mccarthy above Maye?