Ghost of

57 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Late breakouts happen all of the time, especially with QBs.  It's more common than the reverse.  The best QB ever didn't make his first All Pro team until he was 28.  He was considered just a game manager for a dynasty caliber team until he was 30 and very suddenly emerged as the GOAT.  Most QBs don't get genuinely good until their late 20s.

I don't disagree with the main thrust of your post but I take issue with the Brady specific part. The belief he was a game manager was clearly a mistaken one at the time. Think about who he had at receiver, even during the first SB run.  And the fact that the Pats were likely on way to a losing or early playoff exit with Bledsoe at the helm should have clued people in at the beginning of who Brady was.

When they finally got him a Moss-level talent, his numbers took off. When they won the SB in 2004, he was still throwing to Branch and Givens.  They had Dillon on the ground so that was huge, of course, but when Bledsoe got hurt, there was no sense that "oh there goes our SB season" in New England.  But when I watched them in 2001, not only was I just a couple years from watching him do the same thing at Michigan, but it seemed pretty clear to me that without him they aren't winning the championship that year, good-to-great defense or no.

What Brady shows is more that your numbers overall, especially if hemmed in by talent/system, are less important than how you deliver in the most important moments, as well as "good" level consistency in the rest of your play.

All great stuff to see and hear about Daniels.

3 hours ago, philibusters said:

 

I agree.  My impression regarding arm strength and this year's prospects is

 

Tier 1

1.  Drake Maye

2.  Caleb Williams

3.  Michael Penix

 

Tier 2

4.  JJ McCarthy

 

 

I felt Maye, Williams, and Penix were all in the same ballpark.  By contrast Milton is probably a tier up in the truly elite category.

While I understand your rankings, I'm not sure how Milton is in a tier up at 1mph faster than McCarthy.  Only thing I can think is that people watch tape and see a deep pass that is not quite lofted, not quite laser and don't understand arm strength. JJ can literally throw the ball like 30+ yards with no throwing base and doing a 360 in the air. 

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I get the McCarthy over Daniels idea and some share that view.  Some don't.  Am in the don't category but I think its close.  McCarthy really has to step into his throws to sling it.  But when he does it wow, his arm strength is great in that context.  But off the back foot or a muddy pocket IMO Daniels to my eyes has a slight edge. Nix is sort of like McCarthy, when he steps into them he gets good velocity but when not, "meh".

McCarthy throws lasers on the run, not sure I agree at all with this assessment. From the pocket, yeah. Maybe there's mechanical or mental thing there. But on the run or throwing without a base at all? Nah, disagree. It's why he was a 5 star recruit.

Instead of a ring they should send Ron an itemized bill.

Matt Bowen, now there's a name I haven't heard in a long time.  

"I LOVE... there's a difference between love and LOVE... I LOVE this guy. This guy may be the best football player pound-for-pound in the draft." - Nick Saban

If he's maybe the best pound for pound, then maybe he's one of the top few guys you played against in 2023, Nick.

(this isn't dissing Nick on either of the statements, just to say those who thought his earlier one about best players Bama faced is also not really saying anything substantive about Michigan's guys.)

A couple things have stood out to me during pre draft and now. To really know if you should get a player you have to see either randy moss level highlights or you need to follow the team.  

People don't know how important Mikey was to their success the last two years and how many big plays he made that ultimately contributed to them winning a championship. Him being a receiver really gives him ball skills a lot of even really good DBs will never have.  

Another thing is SEC bias. The SEC top Dawgs aren't better than the big 10 top 2. Bowl games no longer show much because of how many guys opt out so now we have to look at out of conference wins. The age of NIL is bringing an end to the dominance of Alabama. Going above board has leveled the playing field a bit.  A guy like Sainristil is better than Forbes regardless of draft status. He was a better player who made big plays in the biggest of games. I was hoping we'd get him and the team would be fine just cherry picking the Wolverines that just won. Great team,  players who didn't come in as 5 stars, played in cold weather, and guys who can be culture setters in a way UGa or Alabama players would not understand or be able to do.  

Mikey is a big play maker and game changer. 

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

Might just be the biggest bs artist in the entire culinary world, that dude.

 

Should add, I am the Dead Sea of saltiness when it comes to the selection at 2. 

Brian Regan, the greatest comedian 90% of the public doesn't know. Absolute genius. 

"Enjoy the movie, sir"

'you too!'

11 minutes ago, CTskins said:

Don't fool yourself. The Patriots have had "several decades of turmoil."

 

They made five playoff appearances from their formation in 1960 to the time Kraft bought the franchise (Jan. '94). The only true oasis was 1984-'86, including a surprise Super Bowl run.

 

Between '89 and '95, they were 4th or 5th in their division 6x winning 2 games or less twice. Then there was also the Lisa Olsen Scandal around the same time, Hart Lee Dykes incident(s), Victor Kiam and Sam Orthwein wanting to relocate, and various other "bad luck" events that plagued the franchise. All the while playing home games in a "stadium" that some Texas High School programs would go, "Nah, we're good."

 

The better tackle football in those days took place in the gravel parking lots.

I still remember that game vs. New England in 90? Not an overly fun game. It was a win but just looked drab and dull and it was on artificial turf.

45 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I've seen every decent QB make that kind of throw. Especially taking big hits to make sure the ball goes out (he actually threw before the hit.) It's not exactly heartening to think that "oh if he just puts more of this on tape" when you see the other top guys do it a bunch.  I expect a franchise QB (and good college QBs) to throw to a spot and take a hit.  

What I want to see more is extending a play and keeping eyes downfield, pointing guys to areas or communicating so they come back to the ball. That's what even immobile Qbs do on occasion when they get out of the pocket.

9 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

What? That a lot of you made it clear that you don't like him because of not exactly football reasons like his mom, the way he dresses, the social media (which I also don't like) and how he speaks? Or are we talking about how people kept calling him a run first running QB when basically everyone who watched him told you that couldn't be farther from the truth but still, today, people think that. I mean we tarnished the kids character before we even heard two words out of his mouth and it was predictable. 

 

I have never intended to be hide what I think some people think. I have always intended to give you all the benefit of the doubt and obey the forums rules. I told you from the start that my bias is clear and I try to ride above it. I hope we all do. If w want to make it a focus of the conversation, I'm fine with that too. I dont think its helpful though. 

How long have you been on this board? People latch onto non football or quasi-character things when they discuss QBs especially. That comes with the territory. Tell me what people think about Jay Cutler after his first year or two and his attitude.

Were you here for Ramsey and Brunell? Jason Campbell and whatever the hell else we were rolling out? Do you have any memory of how harsh people were towards every aspect of Brunell and Campbell and many other QBs? Social media barely existed back then (or not at all for some of these). I'm sure if Mark had said 'we need to get better" after throwing hospital balls all game, he would have been annihilated. I know, because I couldn't stand the dude. I constantly pointed out how Jason adopted some bad habits after being around him and allowing reporters to give him credit on good things and saying "we" when it should have been me. By the end of Brunell and Campbell, people were done. Haskins (RIP) was giving more overt signs but even there people were questioning the pick based on a non-running QB who seemed to play in a system that inflated numbers and he had a bad attitude on draft night of all nights.  That and a family that seemed to be involved in an unhealthy way.  Sort of like RG3's dad may have been, but probably less harmful to RG3 or the team than people think.

Were you on this board when we drafted RG3? I was. There are always detractors and we didn't really have a lot of options after RG3 but I recall people mostly loving the pick and being excited about him as a person (fool me once!) Many of us thought RG3 had a chance to be the best (or most accomplished) QB from 2012.

So when you make these insinuations, it seems like you were born new into the world rather than someone who has intimate experience with what occurred.

13 minutes ago, Berggy9598 said:

Again, why have you decided he's not a good pocket passer? Of himself, Maybe and Williams, Daniels might actually be the most polished pocket passer. 

I think it's conflicting information from metrics and tape.  They see a guy who has good accuracy (if they've been following) on deep balls but some of our better experts have talked about guys needing to wait on some of those.  They see someone who runs but is, at least according to data we have, pulls down without looking downfield to extend the play via pass (not that he never does but it's more rare than Maye or Williams who run mostly to extend the passing play.)  They see a guy who's ADOT and over the middle throws appear more scarce compared to guys who may run but also are more daring over the middle/intermediate. Same with processing, it could be that JD walked them through pre and post in one-on-ones and blew their socks off.  But I've seen tape breakdowns that call some of that into question (Kurt Warner is one, and he was critical of Maye and McCarthy on different things.)

It's also a logical thing. If a guy ran for maybe 3-500 yards and had same passing numbers and maybe dealt with less talented wideouts, you'd say "Ok he's obviously mostly pocket" if the system was pro style.  If a guy ran for 0 and threw for 5,000 you'd say "pocket QB" (Haskins wasn't really a runner, as an example.)  But a guy who sets running records in conjunction with passing is more difficult to assess.  

In short, lots of conflicting stuff, great tape, some mediocre/concerning like other prospects, some bad advanced metrics but are those stats actually telling the full story? 

6 minutes ago, profusion said:

 

The entire focus has to be on developing JD. Having last year's starter on the bench behind him only serves as a distraction.

 

Mariota's actually a very good choice for a backup. He'll be able to step in well enough if needed, but he is firmly in the backup category. Everyone's roles are clear.

 

Getting a third-round pick for a fifth-round guy seems like pretty good business, I'd say.

Agreed. It would be one thing if Howell were a couple years out from starting but it was last year. And you want someone with a bit more experience to at least potentially contribute in the QB room, even if they don't think their role is outright mentorship. I do understand not wanting to give up on Howell entirely but his P2S ratio is up there and it showed last year. He may not be the one you want Daniels modeling or mimicking. 

5 hours ago, ClaytoAli said:

This thread took a bit to get created and is butt arse naked 8 hrs after the pick was announced.

 

 

So telling. 😂

Why not volunteer more information? I'm getting a sense you want to get at something, and the fact that Llevron seemed to want to touch on it. I know Hooper talked about it directly.

Just come out with it, we should discuss it, at least obliquely.

1 hour ago, -9- said:

 

 

It's funny, he turns the notion of Eternal Return/recurrence on its head. Where Nietzsche framed it as a means to encourage amor fati, Rust just thought it meant something resembling hell or purgatory.

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Winning games in college is not a translatable skill to the NFL. 

If you had a super talented guy who went 5-7 every season but you thought he'd be a great QB. Furthermore, lots of great players have won state titles at the high school level.  He apparently did win a league HS title in his area. 

You'd describe him as a "winner"? Why not pick competitor, great QB, etc. Winner is dumb when you haven't won at any level. 

1 hour ago, BayouBrave86 said:

SEC west title 😉 but…the Heisman,

 

Additional awards and honors won included the Walter Camp Award,^[20] AP College Football Player of the Year,^[21]SN Player of the Year,^[22] Davey O'Brien Award,^[23] Manning Award,^[24] and the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award.^[25] 

None of those are what anyone refers to by "winner" and you know it. 

What has he won?

9 minutes ago, Llevron said:

Still no consideration that maybe the statistics you are looking at are taken out of context and mean little? I have been telling y’all that. If you watch the games, that sack % for example is easily explained.

 

Or they just don’t care. Or they don’t have the numbers and only people on the internet have them lol

An entire career of p2S ratio is not out of context. 

13 minutes ago, BraveWarrior said:

 

Oh, please. What has Harris done so far to make you have second thoughts about him as owner? 

'Tobias Harris over me?!"

2 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Pennington had several great years as a dual threat QB with a short arm, then got hurt and couldn't run and defenses could key in on him.

He was not a dual threat QB, what is you talking about?

18 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Doesn’t make him good. We’ll see?

Latham was the one Josiah Stewart blew up to kill the last play in the Rose Bowl.

47 minutes ago, BayouBrave86 said:

Guys I’ve been here through Gus, Danny, Campbell, Ramsey, dead arm Brunell, RG3 tearing his knee up 14-0 vs Seattle, Dwayne, etc. JD5 is our guy. 

You didn't mention Brad Johnson. Who actually had the dead arm.  Brunell had lower leg injuries that messed up his base and power. A real veteran qb expert would know that.

Curious.

So what secret metrics did they have access to that caused them to overlook the multiple ones that don't predict success.  

1 minute ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

Where is everybody.

 

It's like after the pick 70% of the forum got sucked up ("Ghosts" reference).

I'm here.  Kind of shocked that all the people who allegedly didn't know did know.