Preseason League Observations - The Good, Bad & the Fantasy Ugly

[TeddyKGB]

Being a huge fantasy football guy with about 5+ leagues per year - I do tons of research every season like everyone else does. That said what has really enhanced my knowledge the last few years for fantasy season is buying the preseason rewind on NFL.com. I watch every single preseason game to decipher what's real, what's smoke, the risers and the "do-not-drafts". While preseason doesn't always translate to regular season you can get a gut feeling on what teams themselves might do once the gloves are off.

 

Here's my thoughts:

 

Team feelings:

 

The Chicago Bears defense will be one of the worst in the league this year. Their age is showing and this preseason with their starters in they have given up 14, 16 & 31 points in in the 1st half of each game. Add that to the fact that they play in the best offensive division in football and have NE, ATL, NO and DAL on their schedule - its going to get ugly.

 

The Eagles will win the NFCE. This one really pains me to say but putting bias aside I have to trust what my eyes see. Their defense will be slightly better then last year probably finishing middle-of-the-pack. The offense though was no fluke and seeing live how they will use their new toys give some credence to that. Riley Cooper will be the same as last year and everyone thinks that the kid Matthews was brought in to replace DJax but in reality its Maclin that's taking that role. He's not going to go for 80yrd bombs but he's going to murder teams on the intermediate routes. Matthews is actually taking over Avant's old spot and they use him very similar to how to we use Garcon in the sense of bubble screens and RAC plays, they even motion him into the 2hb sets for screen/flat game. Then there's Sproles and Shady which will be wheel route monsters this year. I see a lot less deep balls this year and a lot more spreading defenses out sideline-to-sideline with RB Screens, reverses and read option. They are going to annihilate any team with weak/slow LBs this year. I think Oline injuries would be the only think to hold that offense back. I hope I'm wrong on this one I really do.

 

The Bengals look really good on both sides of the ball. I'd be really interested to see if their offense this year under Hue has better starts then last year under Gruden. Everyone seems to think that they will be a run first team because of what Hue did in Oakland but I think their passing game is as lively as ever. Andy Dalton is for real.

 

The Seahawks offense this year is going to be much better then you think. You think Seahags and you think legion of boom but this offense has been downright unstoppable this preseason. Word is that Carroll opened up the playbook this year for Russell and you can tell. They aren't playing conservative offense anymore especially with a rapport with Harvin. Watching their offense actually made me irate because it looks just like our offense should look like utilizing Robert. The difference is that Wilson knows when to get rid of the ball - even when scrambling. He gets the ball out faster and more concisely and to me has less weapons then Robert around him, frustrating to watch. One thing that stuck out to me in a huge way since they are both mobile QBs; RGIII scrambles to run the ball downfield when he gets flustered he'll bail sideways then run for 2-3 yards to the sideline or off tackle - this is where he's taking these nasty hits. Russell on the other hand scrambles almost 90% of the time to evade. He buys time spinning backwards and almost always throws it away before taking a sack. If I'm Gruden I'd slap a copy of the SEA v CHI game in RGIII's locker.

 

The Tampa Bay Defense is going to be very good this year. The Lovie effect is real and they are flying to the ball all preseason. They have studs on every level of the defense and the starters have only allowed 3 points all preseason while causing turnovers to boot. They will surprise.

 

The 49ers will regress this year. Kaep has been looking about just as good as RGIII all preseason except less accurate. The defense has injuries and they just look overall out of whack. The running game is the only thing positive I can see.

 

Jacksonville/Miami offenses could surprise this year. Both have been running high tempo no huddle offenses with success this preseason. I am also very high on Jags defense which seems ludicrous but they have been gangbusters all preseason including performances against the bears and lions starting offenses. Their safety Cyprien seems to have taken that step to that next level and the D Line especially Senderrick Marks is playing lights out.

 

 

Fantasy Deep Sleeper Feelings:

 

Who's real:

 

Allen Hurns - Been with the 1s all preseason, smooth routes, catches everything and the OC was his coach in college so he already has a leg up in the playbook. Even better if bortles starts eventually. This years Victor Cruz.

 

Mohammed Sanu - Had a great offseason, fully healthy and looking confident. I predict he'll have double digit points a game until after their bye week when Marvin Jones returns.

 

On watch:

 

Devin Hester - sounds crazy but the falcon offense looked best when in their 4-wide formation with Hester. I've also heard this is one of Matty Ice's favorite packages and thus far in the preseason he's outperformed Harry Douglas and on par with Roddy when in the starting offense. Keep an eye here, I think he bumps Douglas down the chart.

 

MJD - not a deep sleeper but he's looked good all preseason and playing with a chip on his shoulder. Don't let McFadden scare you off MJD will get his.

 

Ryan Tanehill - while I think they will have some growing pains in the new chip Kelly-like offense I like what I've seen this preseason and he could come on this year the way foles did last year. Keep an eye.

 

Jordan Matthews - I think he's been a little overhyped because people think he will just have djax numbers. Truth is he's going to be a super saiyin version of Avant, catching tons of bubble screens and crossers. I don't foresee a ton of touchdowns but if you look at Avant's 76 targets last year I think he will put up Riley cooper lite numbers. Something along the lines of 60/800/4tds.

 

The ugly:

 

Kaepernick - See above. He could prove me wrong but he's looks EJ Manuel like

 

Vernon Davis - Dont like his qb this year and most his points last year came on TDs, don't see hime replicating.

 

Jamaal Charles - still will do really well but that o line is not the same as last year. Top 5 but not top 3 IMO.

 

Any Indy RB - Their o line is one of the worst run blocking I've see thus far.

 

CJ1K - will still have some monster games but he's splitting too much with ivory and to me ivory looks better.

[TeddyKGB]

Well I was wrong about the niners players but that was the cowboys D were talking here.

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

Got to say, it's only week 1 but bravo.