UK General Election. Any interest?

[smsmith40]

Just to demonstrate my point. I've done a little research on tne last few elections

1987

Labour 31.5%, Tories 43.3%, Lib Dems 23.1%, Others 2.1%

Result Tory Majority 101

1992

Labour 35.2%, Tories 42.8%, Lib Dems 18.3%, Ohers 3.7%

Result Tory Majority 21

1997

Labour 44.3%, Tories 31.5%, Lib Dems 17.2%, Others 7%

Result Labour Majority 178

2001

Labour 42.0%, Tories 32.7% Lib Dems 18.8% Others 6.5%

Result Labour Majority 146

2005

Labour 36.2%, Tories 33.2%, Lib Dems 22.7%, Others 7.9%

Result Labour Majority 66

As you can see, since Labour were elected in 97 the Tory vote has flatlined at around 31-33%. The only shift of voters has been from Labour to the Lib Dems, this has led to the declining majority.

THe distribution of seats depnds in this system not on the national share of the vote but the balance & distribution of votes across each of the constituencies.

The lesson for those hoping for the emrgence of a third party is that the first-past-the-post system we use and you use for congressional elections will produce strange results and wild swings in the number of congressman elected due to very small swings in total share of the vote.when a significant third party is involved.