UK General Election

[smsmith40]

For those of you interested in the rest of the world..

Tony Blair has this morning asked the Queen to dissolve Parliament, this means there will be a general election in the UK on May 5th.

The date has been widely predicted for the last 6 months but the campaign wil now officially start.

The polls have Labour (TB) on 37%, Conservatives on 34% and Liberal Democrats on 21%. However turnout is expected to be low, perhaps down to 50-55%. THis will probably lead to a large level of volatility in the results. MOst predictions have Labour returned to power with a significantly reduced majority.

We shall see.

[dreamingwolf]

why would he do this if it will weaken his party?

[smsmith40]

Hmmm! Interesting question.

One of the unusual thinks about the UK political system is that the sitting PM effectively gets to choose the date of the general election (within limits, he needs to do it within 5 years of the previous election, this one will be almost exactly 4 years after the last one).

The date has been widely trailed, I think TB believes that the economy is likely to be at its most buoyant about now. By next year the outlook is not quite so rosy. In addition local system of taxation will be updated which will likely lead to significantly more people being trapped in a higher band (depends on propoerty values). All of that will be negative.

The fact is TB currently has a massive majority in the House of Commons (150 plus). IF that is reduced to merely a working majority (50 plus) he will be in reasonably good shape.

In summary, this is probably the best time to go. PMs who stretch out to the last possible date almost invariably lose.

[dreamingwolf]

ah very good explanation, thanks!