Skin'Em84 Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 Well, you could go into the nfl.com file for each game, read the play by play and compile the stats yourself. Maybe someday when I'm really, really, bored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrelgreenie Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 What do you think of Net Yards gained combined with Red Zone efficiency as a measure of a teams offensive success? Imo if such a ^^stat existed that would be the best metric for offensive success. Of course it could, but at the same YPA, the ball control offense would be much superior to the big play offense. That's why the YPA is a deceptive stat.I would just hazard a guess that three equal, average quality passing games of the different types would have YPAs that looked something like this: Ball control: 5.75 Tweener: 6.25 Big play: 7.00 That's why I say the ball control offenses which help their defenses are underrated and the big play offenses that don't play the field position game well and help their defenses contain the opponent are overrated. Which offenses would you consider 'big play' and which would you consider 'ball control'? What would you make of this statement in regards to our discussion? ยป Big, or "explosive," plays. Not all coaches define them the same, but in general, it's a run of at least 12 yards and a pass play of at least 20. The bigger the chunks of yardage a team can gain, the fewer chances there are to mess up on a long drive. recent NFL.com article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldfan Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 DG: What do you think of Net Yards gained combined with Red Zone efficiency as a measure of a teams offensive success? The best method would be a complicated formula with the major factors weighted based on studies from a large sample. Red Zone efficiency is a major factor. Which offenses would you consider 'big play' and which would you consider 'ball control'? I don't think you're asking me to go through all 32 teams and give you a list, so I'll just give you a rough idea about the passing game only. By comparision to other teams, the teams with the higher percentage of their passes in the air 12 yards or less is playing ball control; the teams with the higher percentage of their passes in the air 25 yards or more would be a big play team. What would you make of this statement in regards to our discussion? "The bigger the chunks of yardage a team can gain, the fewer chances there are to mess up on a long drive." That statement, unqualified, is simplistic and deceptive. While true, it's just one factor of several to consider when weighing strategic advantages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pounds Posted February 18, 2009 Author Share Posted February 18, 2009 If you do this, you will get a measurement of the performance of Matt Cassel, executing plays called in the Patriot scheme, protected by the Patriots O line, throwing to Patriots receivers. And, you will get a measurement of the performance of Jason Campbell, executing plays called by Jim Zorn in the Redskins scheme, protected by the Redskins O line, throwing to the Redskins receivers.But, you won't have a measurement that will allow you to fairly compare the performances of the two QBs in isolation. Firstly, I think the unbolded portion of your quote still makes for a valid indicator. Such a stat will prove more accurate as opposed to the more faulty QB rating system or generalized team rankings. The remarks on the topic from Tony Dungy and Dick Vermeil quoted in the OP lead me to believe that my claim is true. Secondly, with regards to the bolded portion of your quote, the formula just needs some refinement is all. I think a lot of your opinion on the matter hinges on your idea that this is a team stat, which, to a degree is correct, but in application it doesn't necessarily have to be. It is impossible to separate a QB's play in relation to that of his o-line, but NYPPA does not include a receiver's YAC. So, to be fair, there is some semblance of isolation. So' date=' of what use is your stat?[/quote']You've stumped me. :cool: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldfan Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 Secondly, with regards to the bolded portion of your quote, the formula just needs some refinement is all. I think a lot of your opinion on the matter hinges on your idea that this is a team stat, which, to a degree is correct, but in application it doesn't necessarily have to be. Claiming that your approach is valid because it's better than the QB rating is a lot like claiming that the least ugly of two very ugly girls is beautiful. It doesn't look like I'm going to be able to save you from wasting your time on a fruitless mission so I'll wait for the release of Pounds Formula 2.0 before adding anything more . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eljeasel Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 Claiming that your approach is valid because it's better than the QB rating is a lot like claiming that the least ugly of two very ugly girls is beautiful.It doesn't look like I'm going to be able to save you from wasting your time on a fruitless mission so I'll wait for the release of Pounds Formula 2.0 before adding anything more . Only if your half a bottle in. Good analogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrelgreenie Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 The best method would be a complicated formula with the major factors weighted based on studies from a large sample. Red Zone efficiency is a major factor. Here is a stat that i think is a good measure of offensive success. But, it isn't adjusted like their other stats. (I don't know if you guys have come across this site before but its a very unique and informative site) http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats DRIVE STATS 2008 Revised as of 1/2/2009 Drive stats compiled by Jim Armstrong These stats are computed from NFL Drive Charts and are not adjusted for strength of schedule or situation. FUM/Dr represents Fumbles Lost per drive. LOS/Dr represents average starting field position (line of scrimmage) per drive. DSR represents Drive Success Rate, as introduced in Pro Football Prospectus 2005, which measures the percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown. Take-a-knee drives at the end of a half are discarded. NET values are simply OFFENSE minus DEFENSE. The top number in each category is in bold type. NFL ranking is in parentheses. By comparision to other teams, the teams with the higher percentage of their passes in the air 12 yards or less is playing ball control; the teams with the higher percentage of their passes in the air 25 yards or more would be a big play team. ESPN actually has QB passing broken down into splits and one of the splits is called:BY PASS PLAY and the distances are broken up thusly: Pass Thrown: Behind line Pass Thrown: 1-10 yds Pass Thrown: 11-20 yds Pass Thrown: 21-30 yds Pass Thrown: 31-40 yds Pass Thrown: 41+ yds http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/splits?playerId=2580 If some is really motivated they could compile the stats of the different QBs into one chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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