doncherry Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Handicappers+Corner/Handicapping+Columns/2008/wilkening061908.htm Think back to a year ago at this time. The Bears were regarded as bona fide NFC contenders. The Vikings? They were considered cannon fodder. But in Las Vegas, the “sharps” — bettors who make a living betting on pro football — suspected otherwise. And they backed it up at the windows, wagering the “Under” on regular-season wins for Chicago and the “Over” on Minnesota’s regular-season wins, according Jeff Stoneback, sports book manager at The Mirage hotel and casino. Both bets cashed. So who do the professional bettors like this season? Well, not the defending champion Giants, to name one team. And they are on the 49ers’ bandwagon, smoldering wreckage be damned, just like they were last year. Here’s a rundown of the regular-season win totals the MGM Mirage has set for each of the 32 NFL teams. All information on wagering trends is courtesy of Stoneback, who noted that casual bettors usually don’t take an active interest in the regular-season win totals until mid-August or so. Arizona Cardinals Projected wins: 8. Bettors taking the Over will get even (+100) odds, or a $10 return on every $10 wagered on a winning bet. Bettors taking the Under are getting minus-120 odds, meaning they will receive a $10 return on every $12 wagered on a winning ticket. Betting trends: Not much action on the Cardinals just yet. Wilkening’s first take: I don’t think the Cardinals can overtake the Seahawks, but the better question vis-à-vis their projected win total is whether they are substantially better than NFC West rivals San Francisco and St. Louis. Atlanta Falcons Projected wins: 5 (Over: +110; Under: -130) Betting trends: Nothing doing. Wilkening’s first take: If nothing else, the Falcons figure to have a better attitude this season. That might be enough for six wins. Baltimore Ravens Projected wins: 6½ (Over: +135; Under: -155) Betting trends: Here is where things get interesting. The professional bettors have been all over the Under. When the totals were released in May, the Over was priced at minus-120; look at it now. Wilkening’s first take: If nothing else, the Ravens will stop the run. And they have won without much offensive help before. But the Steelers and Browns clearly have moved ahead of them, and the Bengals also swept the season series in 2007. Buffalo Bills Projected wins: 8 (Over: Even; Under: -120) Betting trends: Zilch. Wilkening’s first take: The Bills are a couple of players short on both sides of the ball. But their special-teams play is top-notch, and they always play hard. Tough call. Carolina Panthers Projected wins: 7½ (Over: -140; Under: +120) Betting trends: All quiet. Wilkening’s first take: The Panthers have failed to post a winning record at home in five of the last seven seasons. Chicago Bears Projected wins: 8 (Over: Even; Under: -120) Betting trends: Nothing to report, Bears fans. Wilkening’s first take: Will any gains stemming from increasing Devin Hester’s work on offense be nullified by Hester potentially being less effective on returns? Cincinnati Bengals Projected wins: 7½ (Over: +115; Under: -135) Betting trends: The chirping of crickets. Wilkening’s first take: Chad Johnson is likely to report to training camp. But what about this mysterious ankle injury? And, of course, the play of the defense remains a concern. Cleveland Browns Projected wins: 8½ (Over: +105; Under: -125) Betting trends: The professional bettors primarily have been playing the Under, according to Stoneback. Wilkening’s first take: The schedule is a bear. But the Browns are more talented than a season ago, especially on defense. Dallas Cowboys Projected wins: 11 (Over: -105; Under: -115) Betting trends: To my surprise, nothing much to report. Wilkening’s first take: If taking the Over, comfort yourself with this statistic: Tony Romo sits to pee is 11-2 in regular-season road starts. Denver Broncos Projected wins: 8 (Over: -120; Under: Even) Betting trends: Nothing to report. Wilkening’s first take: On their best day, the Broncos can give anyone a game. But that game is likely to be a shootout, for their defense is such a mess. Their special-teams play also is a major question mark. I have to think the Over is a “bet $12 to win $10” proposition because of the relative weakness of the Chiefs and Raiders, not due to the strength of the Broncos. Detroit Lions Projected wins: 6½ (Over: -130; Under: +110) Betting trends: Yawns all around. Wilkening’s first take: The Lions won seven games last season, breaking a streak of six straight seasons racking up double-digit losses. Optimism about that aside, I can’t figure out why the Over is getting much play. The Lions play five of their first eight on the road. Remember, this is a club that is 8-48 away from home since 2001. What’s more, the Lions are adjusting to yet another new offensive system. Even the most ardent Lions fan has to wonder if the team is going to take a small step back this season. Green Bay Packers Projected wins: 8 (Over: -115; Under: -105) Betting trends: None to report. Wilkening’s first take: The Packers won four straight to start the 2007 season and never relinquished the NFC North lead. Whether they can get traction in this September is the key to this Over/Under decision. The opener vs. Minnesota will be a slugfest. Green Bay should prevail at Detroit in Week Two, but divisional games are never sure things. Week Three: The Cowboys come to town. Then comes a tricky trip to Tampa Bay. Houston Texans Projected wins: 7½ (Over: Even; Under: -120) Betting trends: Nothing to report. Wilkening’s first take: A reason to consider the Under: The Texans are 1-11 in the past three years vs. Indianapolis and Tennessee. Indianapolis Colts Projected wins: 11 (Over: +125; Under: -145) Betting trends: The sharps like the Under. Wilkening’s first take: Any Under wager on the Colts has to come with the hope that they will get some resistance from AFC South foes Houston, Tennessee and Jacksonville. The Colts are 17-3 vs. non-divisional opponents in the past two seasons. Jacksonville Jaguars Projected wins: 10½ (Over: +115; Under: -135) Betting trends: There has been some early wagering on the Under. Wilkening’s first take: The Jaguars can’t have many qualms about the schedule. Four of their toughest non-division foes — Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Minnesota and Green Bay — will face them at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium. Kansas City Chiefs Projected wins: 6 (Over: -110; Under: -110) Betting trends: Nothing to report. Wilkening’s first take: The key question: Can the Chiefs defend their home field? They usually do, but not last season, as evidenced by a 2-6 mark at Arrowhead Stadium. Miami Dolphins Projected wins: 5½ (Over: Even; Under: -120) Betting trends: Nothing to report. Wilkening’s first take: Four of the Dolphins’ last five games are on the road, so their mindset entering late November and December will be key. Last season, Miami’s closing schedule wasn’t that imposing, save for the Week 16 trip to New England. Minnesota Vikings Projected wins: 8 (Over: -130; Under: +110) Betting trends: The Over has gotten some play; it opened at minus-120. Wilkening’s first take: You have to like their chances to clear the eight-win mark after the Jared Allen trade, right? New England Patriots Projected wins: 12½ (Over: -125; Under: Even) Betting trends: The price on the Over has increased slightly. Wilkening’s first take: The Under is in play if you think the Patriots will lack the motivation they had no shortage of last season. But far be it from me to suggest that as a surefire winning strategy. New Orleans Saints Projected wins: 9 (Over: Even; Under: -120) Betting trends: None as of yet. Wilkening’s first take: The Saints only play two teams (San Diego and Green Bay) that made it as far as the divisional round in 2007. But they essentially are playing nine road games if you include the trip to London to play the Chargers on Oct. 26. And there are other scheduling quirks, too. They do not play a home game in Weeks Eight through 11 (though their bye is Week Nine after the London trip). And they have several sneaky-tough road games in the second half. Beware the trips to Atlanta (Nov. 9) and Kansas City (Nov. 16). And playing the Bears in Chicago in December is no treat, if for no other reason than the elements and the field condition. New York Giants Projected wins: 9 (Over: Even; Under: -120) Betting trends: According to Stoneback, professional bettors have been playing the Under. And, to date, the betting public also has been skeptical. To wit: The Giants’ odds to win Super Bowl XLIII opened at 7-1 at the MGM Mirage properties, but they have floated up to 12-1. Wilkening’s first take: Don’t be surprised if the Giants are unbeaten entering October. Their first three games: vs. Washington, at St. Louis, vs. Cincinnati, then their bye week. Sure, the schedule gets tougher thereafter. But still … New York Jets Projected wins: 7 (Over: -145; Under: +125) Betting trends: Nothing to report on the Gang Green front. Wilkening’s first take: I can see why the Over may be popular — the offensive line will be better. So will the defensive front seven. Let’s see, if the Jets sweep the Dolphins and split with Buffalo, they just need five wins in their other 12 games. Not far-fetched, right? Oakland Raiders Projected wins: 6 (Over: -140; Under: +120) Betting trends: Nothing to report. Wilkening’s first take: The Raiders haven’t won more than six games in a season since 2002. I’m just saying. Philadelphia Eagles Projected wins: 9 (Over: Even; Under: -120) Betting trends: Some interest in the Over. Wilkening’s first take: You have to read the tea leaves about QB Donovan McNabb’s shoulder. That may be tough — I can’t see him getting a lot of work in the preseason as it is. Pittsburgh Steelers Projected wins: 9½ (Over; +105; Under: -125) Betting trends: The sharps like the Under. Wilkening’s first take: The Steelers didn’t finish the 2007 season especially well, and they aren’t quite as strong as they’ve traditionally been at the line of scrimmage. But they were 5-1 vs. divisional opponents last season. So this bet probably comes down to whether you think they can pick up two wins apiece vs. Baltimore and Cincinnati. St. Louis Rams Projected wins: 6½ (Over: -125; Under: +105) Betting trends: Nothing to report. Wilkening’s first take: An inconsistent, injury-prone club with a head coach (Scott Linehan) who likely is coaching for his job this season. Hard to get a read on the Rams. San Diego Chargers Projected wins: 11 (Over: Even; Under: -120) Betting trends: No significant interest in the Over or Under. Wilkening’s first take: The consensus is they will win the AFC West without much difficulty. Making a call on this Over/Under comes down to whether you believe they will be motivated for 16 games — and whether RB LaDainian Tomlinson, QB Philip Rivers and TE Antonio Gates will stay healthy. San Francisco 49ers Projected wins: 6 (Over: -155; Under: +135) Betting trends: The bettors like the Over, just like they did last year. Wilkening’s first take: The 49ers’ first eight games are brutal; they draw the Seahawks twice and the Patriots, Giants, Eagles, Saints and Cardinals. The only game in which they could be favored in this stretch is the Week Three tilt vs. Detroit — and even that isn’t a game you can pencil in as a win, considering the Lions’ familiarity with new Niners offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s scheme. If you think the Niners can get three or four wins entering the Week Nine bye, then the Over is probably the play, considering the schedule gets a little easier in the final two months. But if you expect the worst early, the Under looks rather attractive. Seattle Seahawks Projected wins: 9 (Over: -110; Under: -110) Betting trends: The Under has been the early play. Wilkening’s first take: To dislike the Seahawks, you’ll have to like one of their three division rivals. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Projected wins: 8 (Over: -105; Under: -115) Betting trends: Nothing to report. Wilkening’s first take: They won a weak NFC South last year. The consensus is they can’t do it again. But nine wins seems within their scope. Tennessee Titans Projected wins: 8 (Over: -115; Under: -105) Betting trends: Nothing to report. Wilkening’s first take: The Titans will be a popular last-place pick; the Texans are a chic sleeper team, and Tennessee won ugly last year. That said, the Titans have a lot going for them: a sound defense, an offense capable of controlling the clock and solid special-teams play. Washington Redskins Projected wins: 8 (Over: +120; Under: -140) Betting trends: The Under has been popular. Stoneback surmises it has much to do with first-year head coach Jim Zorn. Wilkening’s first take: If the players buy into Zorn’s system, the Redskins could be tougher than expected. But they are stuck in a loaded NFC East, so I understand the interest in the Under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fieldy Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 Dallas Cowboys Projected wins: 11 (Over: -105; Under: -115) Betting trends: To my surprise, nothing much to report. Wilkening’s first take: If taking the Over, comfort yourself with this statistic: Tony Romo sits to pee is 11-2 in regular-season road starts. BOTH of those regular season road starts to the mighty SKINS!!! That is one trend that shall continue!:dallasuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouvan59 Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 Ummm, that isn't Vegas predicting wins. It's Vegas predicting where the bets will fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OWUeagleMD Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 Ummm, that isn't Vegas predicting wins. It's Vegas predicting where the bets will fall. Kind of. Vegas casinos predicted the o/u line. This article is analyzing the thought process behind bets that have already been placed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncherry Posted June 20, 2008 Author Share Posted June 20, 2008 Ummm, that isn't Vegas predicting wins. It's Vegas predicting where the bets will fall. fair enough. Thanks for pointing that out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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