Was it really Saddam on TV?

[redman]

Interesting article from the MSNBC website:

Did the Real Saddam Just Stand Up?

Psychiatrist Jerrold Post speculates on the besieged Iraqi leader’s current state of mind

By Brian Braiker

NEWSWEEK WEB EXCLUSIVE

March 20 — Iraqi president Saddam Hussein appears to have survived the early rounds of Baghdad bombing. The Iraqi president—or one of his many doppelgangers—defiantly addressed his people early Thursday morning.

“YOU, IRAQIS, WILL be victorious,” Saddam (or possibly not Saddam) told his country in a televised address. “Your enemies will be in disgrace and shame.” Jerrold Post watched the address and was left with several questions. The Yale-trained psychiatrist and Saddam profiler wondered what the recent restructuring of Iraq’s military signifies, if Saddam is prepared to use chemical weapons—and what the deal was with those glasses.

Post, the director of the political psychology program at George Washington University, established the CIA’s Center for Personality and Clinical Behavior in the early 1970s. He has made a career of advising presidents and State Department officials on the mental quirks of foreign leaders, and is the editor of the recently published book “The Psychological Assessment of Political Leaders, With Profiles of Saddam Hussein and Bill Clinton” (University of Michigan Press). Post spoke to NEWSWEEK’s Brian Braiker about the Iraqi president’s apparent state of mind after the first night of U.S. bombing—and whether he thought that was really Saddam at all.

NEWSWEEK: How did Saddam seem to you in his first video appearance after the U.S. bombs had started to fall?

Jerrold Post

Jerrold Post: My gut reaction was “Gee, that doesn’t look like Saddam to me.” And in fact I was just interviewed by Dan Rather, and when I mentioned that during the interview, he stopped me to say, “Well that’s interesting because I had the identical reaction, and I’m probably the last American to see him. He didn’t look to me like the Saddam I had seen.” Maybe that reflected the kind of puffiness from not sleeping through the night and some of the signs of stress, but also he was wearing glasses I wasn’t used to seeing him in. The way he spoke just seemed somewhat different to me, off.

What did you make of his body language?

Tired, stressed. And that’s a very striking contrast to the remarkable ease he’s been showing in recent appearances where he’s been showing a sense of command and mastery. Not surprising, given what he’s been through.

What else did you make of his performance?

This is a guy who’s always ready to be attacked, to be betrayed. I can well imagine him wondering who could have told the opposition about where he was going to be. His characteristic paranoia has to be mounting. It’s quite clear there’s been a concerted [u.S.] government policy for some time to split Saddam from his followers. We had secretary of Defense Rumsfeld back in the late fall saying generals have an important role to play in the reconstruction of Iraq—though if they get involved with weapons of mass destruction all bets are off. Then President Bush said something to the effect that Saddam may well order the use of chemical or biological weapons and if he does so, the generals will be well advised to disobey his orders. The leafleting and psychological operations are in support of this: they let the Iraqi forces know how to surrender, and that the goal is not broadly against Iraqi military, but against the leadership in particular.

Give us an example of paranoid behavior from Saddam.

What I find very interesting, and I think quite telling, is that in the last week he changed the defense of Iraq, dividing it into four quadrants. And the four individuals in charge of these four quadrants all are people with unquestioned loyalty, even though they’re not military. This is a signal that he’s working hard to prevent having someone rise up against him. The fact that he maintained control of the Air Force and rockets, gave control of the Baghdad sector to his son Qusay, and total control of the south to [his trusted aide], the so-called “Chemical Ali,” says to me he’s much more wary and attempting to guard against the breakdown of his structure.

Aren’t his concerns legitimate?

I think you have to go back to 1991 to observe that after the conflict those who were too early in indicating enthusiasm for his overthrow with their families were ruthlessly hunted down, captured, tortured and executed. So I don’t see anyone rising up against him until not only the conflict is fully engaged but it is clear—or pretty damn close to being certain—that Saddam is on the way out. It’s too dangerous otherwise.

Can you imagine Saddam seeking exile?

He has said absolutely not, and I would say absolutely not, too. He’s not about to sit himself by a swimming pool someplace. Moreover he really is quite concerned with his historical legacy. To be seen as cutting and running, would really sully that reputation. I do believe that when pushed into a corner he can be reliably expected to order the use of chem-bio weapons against alliance forces in the field. And, if he has the delivery system, against Israel as well. I’ve been predicting since last October that he would take out his own oil fields not only for defensive purposes, but to say “if I can’t have them, no one’s going to get them.”

He seems awfully blustery for someone who is right now the No. 1 target of the most powerful military on earth.

This man has a confidence in his ability to survive. In 1991, on the third day of the air campaign, he called a press conference to declare a victory. The press was rather astounded. He responded, “Well, since it was widely predicted that we could only stand up for two days, and I’ve already stood up for three days to this mighty attack, for every further day we stand up only magnifies the scope of our victory.” So you have to keep in mind that for him survival and having the courage to stand up against this powerful enemy is a mark of great prestige and quite attractive to his radical followers.

How did Bush look when he addressed the nation once the bombing began?

I actually didn’t see it. I confine my attentions anyway to our foes across the waters.