Johnny Punani2 Posted January 15, 2003 Share Posted January 15, 2003 The DC area might get an winter storm Thrusday night into Friday. Esp spots south of Washington like Stafford, Spotys Co, Fredericksburg are areas south and east of there. FXUS61 KLWX 150823 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 325 AM EST WED JAN 15 2003 SHORT TERM TDA THROUGH THU... LINGERING FLURRIES SHD EXIT THE REGION EARLY. NWLY FLOW AND CAA WILL KEEP SOME LGT ACTIVITY GOING ON THE WRN RIDGES. FOR SKIES...WILL USE PCLDY EVERYWHERE...EXPECTING SRN ZONES TO GET THE MOST SUN. FAR WRN RDGS WILL BE MCLDY. LOW MEAN RH VALUES AND SFC RDG OVERHEAD SHD SPELL MCLR SKIES TNGT. LOW PRES PROGGED ALG THE NRN AL/GA BORDER BY 48 HRS...00Z FRI. ETA AND GFS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT. THE GFS IS MOISTER OVR THE CWA BY THAT TIME. WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING WRN 2/3RD AND 20 PCT E. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM -7C S TO -10C N WITH PROFILE BLO FRZG FROM TOP TO BOTTOM. NOT MUCH QUESTION ABT PRECIP TYPE... JUST TIMING AND AMT. WINDS SHD PICK UP A BIT THIS MORNING ON THE MARINE SIDE. WILL GO SUSTAINED 15 KT EVERYWHERE 1ST/2ND PERIOD. LONG TERM (THURS NITE-TUE) ETA/GFS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT WITH TRACK/STRENGTH OF SFC/UPPER LVL FEATURES AND QPF REGARDING SNOW EVENT THURS NITE/FRI. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF SFC AND H85 LOW AND OFFERS A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS INTO THE DC AND BALT AREAS. GIVEN ITS BETTER CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS SOLUTION. GIVEN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS HAVE RAISED POPS TO DEFINITE ALONG A LINE FROM PETERSBURG/DC/ANNAPOLIS SWD AND LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE THURS NITE. MODEL QPF AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2 IN RANGE WITH HIGHEST AMTS OVR OUR SRN MOST COUNTIES. GIVEN COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. BELEIVE SPOTS LIKE SPOTSYLVANIA/ST MARYS AND ALBERMARLE COUNTIES HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT VERIFYING WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA WHILE FURTHER NORTH ALL THE WAY TO THE PA BORDER THINK A WINTER WX ADVISORY SHOULD DO IT. PRECIP IS OUT OF HERE BY 18Z FRI. WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM OUTLOOK WITH THIS PACKAGE. REST OF FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED BEYOND SAT WWUS81 KLWX 150905 SPSLWX DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042- 050>057-WVZ048>055-151100- WINTER STORM OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 405 AM EST WED JAN 15 2003 ...SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY... A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. AN AREA OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE SNOW COULD REACH SPOTS SUCH AS CHARLOTTESVILLE AND STAUNTON AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PULLS OUT TO SEA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THE STORM TRACKS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LESSENED. IF THE STORM TRACKS FURTHER NORTH...MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST PATH...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST AMOUNTS WOULD FALL OVER LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND IN NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA FROM CHARLOTTESVILLE TO FREDERICKSBURG. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT. $$ RDH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.