jpyaks3

I mean at this point they are simply hoping that the majority of Egyptians are still on there side and that its just a minority in Tahrir. Its pretty much the only thing they can do at this point because if they start caving it won't stop until they are gone. It will be interesting to see if the average Egyptian will come back out and fight the Army and the SCAF which used to be the most respected institution in Egypt.

Well that speech is going to get the exact same reaction that Mubaraks speeches had towards the end. Just gets more people pissed off and entrenched. Incredible how out of touch the leaders of both the old regime and the SCAF are with whats actually going on.

Have a lot of friends that are in and out of Tahrir but haven't heard back from a few so hopefully they are okay. I don't know of anyone in detention this time but I knew a few people who were detained during the January revolution. Tomorrow will be interesting as I believe there are calls for a million man march/general strike so we might see a real show of force.

MB pulled out of demonstrations so I am assuming that they are going to try and continue pushing for elections but who knows with them. It must be a hell of a job trying to get an accurate poll out on anything in Egypt, I wonder what kind of voter models/turnout models they are using, that would be really interesting to see how polling groups are trying to tackle that problem. According to a friend the fire department put out/is putting out the fire in Cilantro. It is crazy to think back in January I was one building down from that Cilantro watching the same street battles that are going on now. Unfortunately I am not back in Egypt but it definitely seems like this is gaining momentum and has a much stronger hold than the earlier sit ins back in June/July.

It would definitely destroy his credibility with the activists but to be honest El Baradei doesn't have a terribly large base of supporters. These conflicts have been building for some time between the SCAF and the activist population, the numbers in the square are bad news for the SCAF because it might be a sign the average guy on the street in Cairo or Alexandria is moving away from them and towards the revolutionaries. At this point there is no way elections will mean anything until the military council steps down.

Would recommend keeping an eye on Egypt tomorrow, supposed to be massive protests centered in Tahrir but also throughout the country against the army and Supreme Military Council. Its being dubbed Day of Rage 2 and people are definitely talking a whole lot more about this than any protests I have heard post revolution. The Coptic Mispro protests are also supposed to be in Tahrir too, so has the potential to be a pretty interesting situation. A couple of activists got arrested for putting up posters advertising the protests so it looks like the security forces and the army are taking this fairly seriously.

Cool website from the Egyptian Revolution, http://www.tahrirdocuments.org/ is a collection of documents/flyers/pamphlets from Tahrir Square throughout the revolution translated. A lot of really cool stuff in there.

Yeah thats bull****, the people aren't buying the counter revolutionary stuff they know what went on. It was clearly an Army move to try and get their officers back in line. People are losing trust in the Army pretty quickly especially if there isn't a trial soon. Here are a few pics I took for Tahrir square.

People are not happy with the Army, but it was interesting because there was a lot of heated discussions between people, nothing out of control but just general political discussion between groups was pretty prevalent. There was literally no Army anywhere near the square so I think the Army is backing off and letting the people protest for now. I think the Army decided to crack down because there were Army officers in the protests and they couldn't let that happen but they kind of realize they ****ed up and are stepping back to try to preserve what support they have left.

Just got back from Tahrir Square, lots of people still there. Protests are probably going to continue for a while, there was barbed wire/blockades set up at all entrances to Tahrir Square. Definitely a different feeling then before.

There was a lot of pro Syria sentiment in the crowd today, definitely some support for the other revolutions. Libya is kind of a unique situation though,

Protests in Tahrir moved to the Israeli embassy, apparently the scene is pretty tense with the Army barricading the embassy and talking to the people. A ton of people still there, could be an interesting night. Still a lot of people in Tahrir too.

10,000 is probably a low number, I think the numbers are anywhere between 20,000 and 40,000 killed. Lets hope that nothing gets to that level ever again.

I am talking about Yemen not Libya. Libya is a mess. ---------- Post added March-24th-2011 at 11:09 AM ---------- The protests are against sectarianism not against the specific government. I think its a legitimate complaint especially since the census is extremely outdated and screws over the Shi'ite because the census was taken in 1928 which means the populations of the Christians and the Shi'ite are pretty off. Lebanon is a weird case in how weak the central government tends to be, I don't think these protests will be successful but they are definitely there and have some support. I think you mean Hezbollah, but Hezbollah is going to be a part of any government in Lebanon for a long time, they represent the Shi'ite who have a plurality and see Hezbollah as a guardian of sorts.

I believe the tipping point was weeks ago and there is no real turning back in those protests (especially after the massive crackdown resulted in a massive defection) and its just a matter of time before he goes the way of Mubarak and Ben Ali. The only thing that may be able to save him would be the hand of God (the Saudi's), but even that might not save him. Hopefully another regime dropping will keep up the momentum for the protesters in Bahrain, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the rest of the world.

Saleh is done, has been for a while. Should be an interesting transition with all the secession rumblings and the north/south history.

I personally think its pretty apparent that the lens through which our policy makers and pundits have been looking at the Middle East has been horribly broken for the past decade or so. Our responses to revolutions and the quick and easy jump to realist thought patterns are just further evidence of this in my mind. Realism is dying and this may be its last stand.

Which story? I don't think anyone can argue that Iran isn't trying to influence the region, just like Egypt was and will again, just like Israel is, and Syria, and Lebanon, and Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, What I can say is that what is happening in Bahrain is not an Iranian effort to take over, that is simply an easy excuse that allows the Saudi's and Bahrain royal family to kill protesters and still allows the United States an out of sorts. Painting it as Iran vs. Saudi Arabia is a good way to avoid the real conflict, the conflict is the Bahrainian people (specifically the disaffected Shiite population) vs. the royal family. Saudi intervention sets a very dangerous precedent and is morally reprehensible. I think the people like Friedman who paint the region in realist terms and Iran vs. Saudi Arabia miss what is actually going on, this isn't an external movement in Bahrain or Libya or Lebanon, or Syria, or Tunisia or any of these countries instead it is a popular revolt against the autocratic and repressive regimes in the region. This breaks a lot of the realist worldview and its one of the reasons that people have been really slow and confused in response to these protests especially in America, because it fundamentally alters the world view of the people who have been making policy for the last decade or so.

See there is the problem, what you quoted all originate from Friedman and his Neo-Con ilk, the Neo-Conservative movement has already shown that they don't have a good grasp on what makes the region tick. They have a very simplified Iran vs. Saudi Arabia view and it simply discounts the real reasons behind these protests.

Iran is certainly positioning themselves to influence the region same as any major player in any region, however, there is absolutely nothing about the Bahrain protests that suggest that Iran had anything to do with them. Bahrain's royal family and Saudi Arabia are just using that as an excuse to violently put down a peaceful protest that stems from an underprivileged and marginalized part of Bahrain's population. There is certainly a struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia over some parts however, if you believe that the Bahrain protests were anything other than homegrown and the Bahrain and Saudi families aren't just trying to justify their brutal treatment of the protesters who were peacefully protesting you really don't understand the underlying issues. This is like claiming that the Egyptian protests were simply driven by the Muslim Brotherhood, its an easy out for the regimes because they know a certain segment of the west will jump on that and accept it as fact because they don't understand or want to understand what is actually happening. No one has any proof that the protests are anything other then home grown and its pretty apparent that Iran is agitating but that doesn't mean they have any control whatsoever over whats going on. Thats like saying since the Muslim Brotherhood came out in favor of the Egyptian protests that they were the ones who were behind and controlling everything, it sounds great to people that want an easy answer but its not the truth. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/spy-talk/2010/07/reza_kahlili_self-proclaimed_ex-cia_spy_makes_new_iran_claims.html Also Reza Kahlili (the author of the article) is kind of a nutjob and has been pretty spectacularly wrong about a lot things, including claiming that Iran "was planning nuclear suicide bombings with “a thousand suitcase bombs spread around Europe and the U.S.” “This is a messianic regime. There should be no doubt they’re going to commit the most horrendous suicide bombing in human history,” Kahlili said. “They will attack Israel, European capitals and the Persian Gulf region at the same time, then they will hide in a bunker [until a religious prophecy is fulfilled]… and kill the rest of the nonbelievers.”

Well its a hell of a lot easier to ignore protesters that are against your interests if you paint them as foreign. Iran may be trying to play a role but the protesters are not pro-Iranian, although they certainly may turn that way when the Saudi's and the royal family mow them down and attack doctors and hospitals. However I can see how it would be easier for you to just claim it is Iran causing problems instead of looking at the ****ty stuff a lot of our allies are doing.

It's a shame whats happening in Bahrain and the American governments lack of a response to Saudi and GCC troops attacking peaceful protesters. Unfortunately it looks like the Bahrain government might get away with simply claiming it was all Iranian based since looking at the actual facts would bring up some difficult questions for the west and the United States.

Sounds like there is a massacre going on in Bahrain. Apparently Saudi, Qatari, and UAE troops are shooting protesters after declaring martial law last night. Extremely ugly.

Apparently the Saudi regime is going to intervene in Bahrain under the auspices of the GCC, not good at all http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/14/saudi-arabian-forces-bahrain-protests?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+co%2FNvKj+%28The+Guardian+World+News Saudi forces are preparing to intervene in neighbouring Bahrain, after a day of clashes between police and protesters who mounted the most serious challenge to the island's royal family since demonstrations began a month ago. The Crown Prince of Bahrain is expected to formally invite security forces from Saudi Arabia into his country today, as part of a request for support from other members of the six-member Gulf Co-operation Council.

Looks like the Saudi's have been spared, no major protests with heavy police presence in all major cities.