17 hours ago, BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen said:

I think we need to be careful about applying our assumptions to other nations that have a different worldview. I don't think we should ever say nukes are off the table and would only be used if a country was admitting defeat.

 

Flawed assumptions led to the Japanese attack on Pearl and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which all of the EU Intel agencies got wrong.

 

Yes, big nukes are highly unlikely, certainly more then tactical nukes. But my fear is if they're used it will make it easier for everyone else to use them too.

I don't think it necessarily makes it easier for other to use. But it will make it extremely difficult to tell other countries, no, don't develop them.

But then....with everyone having them...that just makes their use more likely.

So yeah...nevermind

With regards to China. It's already been said, but to reiterate, China would definitely want Taiwan in one piece (or as intact as possible) which we assume kills any notion of nukes or any other WMDs. But also as was already said....assumptions kill.

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Maybe it's that I live in the Caribbean , but there are definitely storms with chance of development rolling off of Africa. Yes, we have another two months before I really need to worry and they start coming off further north, but yeah, this season is going to suck.

Video is a few days old.

Here's how things look now:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Latest discussion

Storms roll off of Africa pretty much year round. For tropical development through, we need more than just warm water.

Currently windshear across the Atlantic is not conducive.

And the Dust certainly isn't either. That'll pretty much kill anything that rolls off.

****

In the DMV, heads up! Strong storms are once again starting to pop and roll through the area.

12 hours ago, China said:

Wow.  Scary.  Not the kind of weather you usually expect around here.

Yep. It's pretty rare. We get the occasional tornado, but the long lasting/long distance super cell(s) we saw yesterday are very rare.

4 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

This year is terrifying. The water is 2.5 to 4 degrees warmer than it should be and that's down 300 feet. Storms are already ripping off Africa. My roof isn't going to last if we get a good one. I can't even begin to explain how wet it's been. We had a storm drop between 4.5 to 6 inches in one day on island. There is going to be a record number of hurricanes this season. I just bought a 30x40 14 mil tarp. Probably get a couple more, too, just to be safe.

If we were fully back in La Nina, then I'd think there'd be a good chance we take a run at the record. But we're still in that transition state to neutral. Yes, the waters are warm, but that just means when storms do develop they have a chance of gaining strength quickly. They have to develop first though. A fully neutral or La Nina state would be more conducive to that. That's expected mid-late summer.

Fortunately there is nothing in terms of tropical systems coming off of Africa right now. And nothing else in the Atlantic (or Pacific) to worry about...for now.

Russia and China? Normal

How about India, all the reports I've seen show it's getting pretty bad -

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-68918330

Quote

AI and deepfakes blur reality in India elections

15 May 2024

By Meryl Sebastian,BBC News, Kochi

 

In November last year, Muralikrishnan Chinnadurai was watching a livestream of a Tamil-language event in the UK when he noticed something odd.

 

A woman introduced as Duwaraka, daughter of Velupillai Prabhakaran, the Tamil Tiger militant chief, was giving a speech.

The problem was that Duwaraka had died more than a decade earlier, in an airstrike in 2009 during the closing days of the Sri Lankan civil war. The then-23-year-old's body was never found.

And now, here she was - seemingly a middle-aged woman - exhorting Tamilians across the world to take forward the political struggle for their freedom.

Mr Chinnadurai, a fact-checker in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, watched the video closely, noticed glitches in the video and soon pinned it down to being a figure generated by artificial intelligence (AI).

 

The potential problems were immediately clear to Mr Chinnadurai: "This is an emotive issue in the state [Tamil Nadu] and with elections around the corner, the misinformation could quickly spread."

As India goes to the polls, it is impossible to avoid the wealth of AI-generated content being created - from campaign videos, to personalised audio messages in a range of Indian languages, and even automated calls made to voters in a candidate's voice.

Content creators like Shahid Sheikh have even had fun using AI tools to show Indian politicians in avatars we haven't seen them in before: wearing athleisure, playing music and dancing.

But as the tools get more sophisticated, experts worry about its implications when it comes to making fake news appear real.

"Rumours have always been a part of electioneering. [But] in the age of social media, it can spread like wildfire," says SY Qureshi, the country's former chief election commissioner.

 

"It can actually set the country on fire."

...more...

21 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

yea. But like you point out, most of those losses are old equipment, which according to US assessments, they have been able to regain those capabilities.

it wasn’t 300k/ year, it was since the war began. 
 

You can argue with credible sourcing all you want. My advice would be to take the rosey assessments proffered by Twitter osint with a grain of salt.

 

lol, wonderful example of something. And I'm pretty sure it is unintentional

I will continue this line of discussion much later

I will say though, I am definitely not on Twitter and can think of no logical reason to obtain or share news spread on Twitter or any other social media site. Those sites are absolutely useful for certain things (the manipulation fortunately works both ways ), credible news is not one of them.

My assessment is not "rosy." What is happening to Ukraine is absolutely atrocious. One of my irks is people complaining about Israel while completely ignoring Russia whose atrocities are scale and scope, much worse. However, to deny that every single penny that has gone to help in this fight has been worth it, is completely missing the bigger picture. Several big pictures.

On 5/28/2024 at 7:13 AM, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

except, that is not what the article has said. It specifically says Russia has rebuilt its military capabilities.

 

 

300k people sounds like a lot, but it’s really a drop in the bucket compared to the Russian population.

 

The demographics problem is the same problem faced by most western countries.

There is a plethora of websites, githubs, youtubes that are documenting Russia's losses and all that is being moved from storage.

It's 300K a year.

This is 300K extra a year on top of the masses that left when the war started, on top of COVID, on top of the already awful demographic set up. Yes, it's the same problem most western countries are facing. Only exacerbated. And with the way human beings are set up, it's only going to get worse.

7 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

 

You are confusing what is happening with what my position is. They are different things.

 

No, that doesn't matter. You post is perfect for multiple reasons you're not thinking of 🙂

Our positions are probably very similar, it's just there's a couple of specific things though that made me smile broadly, as they are perfect examples of something. A couple of somethings.

And I'm fully aware this seems just silly and vague, lol. I sincerely apologize and promise to explain....in the 2060s 😀

***

To actually respond to something in your post - as far as them "regaining" losses, quality matters. If you have 10 T-80 tanks, lose them, then replace them with 10 70-year old T-60 tanks, yes you still technically have 10 tanks, but capability has certainly diminished.

Russia's demographic set up is certainly not ideal to replace its human losses, which will lead to a whole host of other problems...

On 5/24/2024 at 7:18 PM, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

yes it is. You just haven’t been paying attention.

😂

Perfect. Your whole post perfect. I'll explain why in 40 years. 50 max 🙂

*****************

Yes, unfortunately, the big endgame for Ukraine is to join NATO or the EU. But I say unfortunately because, at least for NATO, one of the conditions is - no border disputes. Even if they do concede some territory, that would still leave them out, until a more reasonable dictator comes to power in Russia 😒

We know at least Hungary won't waive that requirement.

Giving Putin any semblance of a "win" right now, doesn't benefit Ukraine in any way. Fortunately, they know this.

10 hours ago, Simmsy said:

Dan Snyder coming in clutch!

 

 

Think I'm starting to believe the 'we're in a simulation conspiracies' because real life can't be real 😂

4 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I agree. But the reality is that once aids stops Ukraines ability to continue to fight will be diminished so the US has huge sway. We are already trying one hand behind Ukraines back by limiting what it can target. Once the other hand gets pulled then Ukraine will have to surrender to Russias terms. 
 

I’d rather nato provide whatever is necessary to keep Russia on its side of the border, but NATO has already surrendered that. It seems clear that NATO is willing to let Russia have some of Ukraine, otherwise they would have been more hawkish from the start. Nobody ever thought Ukraine could beat back Russia.
 

Instead they embarrassed Russia and temporarily degraded its military capability. Now that Russia has been able to rebuild its military production capacity what is left for nato besides emptying its supplies 🤷‍♀️

 

There are significant symbolic reasons to support Ukraine, but I guess we will see if they are strong enough.

Like...most of this isn’t true at all.

We are not tying Ukraine's hands to anything...

NATO hasn't surrendered any concessions...

Support and aid are only increasing...

Russia will take DECADES to rebuild it's military to be even close to what it was...

😂😂

52 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

My Wife and I had our graduations canceled due to COVID.

 

We were going to get our Masters and walk at the same time in the same stage after getting married while still in grade Scholes together.

 

This same campus is not to far removed from something similar the whole country went through, pretty much every campus.

 

We survived that. They survived it as well.

45 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

 

A few hundred thousand people in the military that miss births, funerals, and a million other things tell those kids to eat a bag of dicks.

Ok?

But...how does anything of this change 'not having a graduation because people are protesting over something the college can't do a single thing about' is not a good thing narrative?

Yeah of course they'll survive, and it may not be a big deal to some, that's not the point. To others, it IS a big deal. It's a huge deal. You can't just be dismissive of those to whom it is a big deal...

Sheesh, have a heart!

4 hours ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 Life in today's NFL sucks with crappy corners and that's what we have today.  

Maybe. But I don't think that's a given.

I think coaching (or lack thereof) was a significant reason for the crappiness of last year...

4 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

For better or worse, the protest are causing disruption bringing further attention to the matter they are protesting.

 

Not everyone is tuned into what's going on in Gaza the way some of us are.  And protests are not meant to be convenient.

After tens of thousands of dollars and years of hard work, I'm denied one of the most important moments of my young life over something my college can't do a single thing about?

Yeah, no. There's no silver lining to this, lol

I expect us to get stronger as the season goes on. What that translates to as far as wins and losses, I have no idea.

The offseason has been amazing. But everything is still new. New coaches, new systems, etc. I expect there to be hiccups, and I expect fans to overreact to them

2 hours ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Is it possible that "people" just aren't as good as we like to think? "Good people" are more of an aberration than a norm?

People have always been awful. We just have many more and much better ways of displaying that awfulness now 🙂

Also, I do think that awfulness is actually increasing - not sure which gen. to blame though - boomers, Gen X, millennials, Gen Y, Gen Z? All of the above?

18 minutes ago, Fergasun said:

Here's the plot. This is an escalation of a war going on for decades. Blaming Joe Biden is exactly what Iran, Russia and China want.  College students should be smarter.

Nothing works better in their favor than a divided America.

And if this is still a big issue in November and works in his favor, they would be ecstatic with an easily manipulated Trump back in the White House.

BLUF - there is nothing good coming from any of this 😩 The war, the protests, it's all....stupid!

10 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Israel definitely oppresses Palestinians…

Oh yeah, not disputing that at all.

My response was to the reasons why Hamas attacked on Oct. 7th. Specifically Hamas, and not the Palestinians in general!

13 hours ago, China said:

During a “verbal altercation,” Medley grabbed a bag of Church’s Chicken from his sister and began throwing pieces of chicken at her. “One piece of fried chicken hit the victim in the back and left debris of food on her shoulders,” a patrolman reported.

My God. What is wrong with people?

Is she ok??? 😨

On 4/30/2024 at 5:42 PM, tshile said:

Little push back on this one. As someone who thinks Israel is justified in what they’re currently doing (I define “justified” as believing we would react the same way, therefore I don’t want to be a hypocrite, while recognizing what is happening is awful)

 

As much as I think you have to park history if the goal is peace - you can’t look at things in a vacuum. You can’t look at one action and ignore the preceding actions. Hamas didn’t only do it because they believe in the destruction of Israel and the Jews - they did it because they’re actively oppressed by Israel.

And, a little push back on this.

Not quite. There's only a slight case to be made there. And you are absolutely right, you have to look at all preceding actions as well. Hamas' founding wasn't necessarily born out of Israeli oppression. It's an offshoot of the muslim brotherhood and can really trace it's inception to '67, when the goal was simply - get rid of Israel. Nothing they have done (i.e., using Palestinians as human shields) really suggest they're doing this simply because of the plight of the Palestinians.

The attack came as Israel was actively normalizing relations with it's neighbors and those that historically have hated them. UAE, Bahrain, even Sudan, and more importantly (for the sake of keeping Iran in check in the region) Saudi Arabia. Without a doubt, one of the goals was to disrupt this.

Another of the goals, per Hamad's interview, was because - "Israel is a country that has no place on our land.......We must remove it because it constitutes a security, military and political catastrophe to the Arab and Islamic nation. We are not ashamed to say this."

12 minutes ago, Metalhead said:

*sticks fingers in ears* Nope

My Memories reminded me that 15 years ago swine flu started to gain major traction around this time

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic

So glad we learned so many lessons from that 🙂

6 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

I have expounded.

 

That was your initial post.

 

"Also, they pretty much are still calling for the elimination of Isreal. Basically, the big difference between the first and second charters is that instead of the elimination of all Jews, they'll just settle for Israel..."

 

That statement isn't true.

It's not true because you say it's not true?

A quick 5 second google search will show you that nothing I have said is in contradiction to Hamas' words, actions, and the charter.

55 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

You do realize none of your response has anything to do with my question or your initial post.  What the Hamas charter physically says is independent of whether they are lying or not, and as the charter didn't change on Oct. 7th, what happened on Oct 7th has no bearing on what the charter physically says.  You made your initial post about what is in their charter.  Not about whether Hamas is being honest in their charter or what happened on Oct. 7.

 

Can you reason at that level?

 

****

 

But what the charter actually says about the destruction of Israel doesn't depend on any of that and is easily verifiable with a 5 second google search.)

 

In the context of anything relevant to the conversation, your initial post, my question, and anything I've said, your whole post is worthless.

No, my initial post was in response to the notion that - "Hamas realistically today is at least portraying itself as one of the more moderate armed anti-Israeli organizations in that they are no longer actively calling for the elimination Israel."

How one can come to this conclusion is beyond me. There's no evidence they're trying to portray themselves as such.

Your assumption that they are "no longer actively calling for the elimination of Israel" because it doesn't say so explicitly in their charter is equally misguided.

They are not not calling for the elimination of Israel. Their actual actions are 100% proof of that.

The original charter was tempered down as it was seen as too anti-Semitic. So now, per their charter, the enemy is Zionists vice all Jews. There is NO language in the document that affirms Israel's right to exist.

So we have:

A terrorist organization who's stated enemy are zionists, and who want to create a state that doesn't recognized Israel's right to exist, and just carried out the first invasion of Israel in decades. And the conclusion is - Hamas realistically today is at least portraying itself as one of the more moderate armed anti-Israeli organizations in that they are no longer actively calling for the elimination Israel

Please, please expound.

On 4/29/2024 at 11:29 AM, Est.1974 said:

Get him another stud WR and one more upgrade on the OL. Those would be my post draft priorities, even at the cost of 2025 draft picks.

Yes to the upgrades. No to the 'even at the cost of 2025 draft picks'. Unless it's a really really really good deal.....

The coaches are, at least in my opinion, not in win now mode. We need to accumulate draft picks for next year, to continue to build that foundation that lasts for years to come.