Don't look now, but unemployment dropped to 5.4%

[Zen-like Todd]

It'll be interesting to see what happens in the next month or two. Apparently there was a rise in jobless claims last week, but mroe than half of that was from the last hurricane that blew through Florida. With Frances bearing down on the mainland right now, and looking like a monster storm, its something to keep an eye on.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&refer=top_world_news&sid=aTD6qJFif01c

U.S. August Payrolls Rose 144,000; Jobless Rate Falls (Update2)

Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. employers added 144,000 workers to payrolls in August, the most since May and the first acceleration in five months, suggesting the economy is emerging from a midyear lull. The unemployment rate fell to 5.4 percent.

The increase follows a revised gain of 73,000 in July that was more than twice the number estimated last month. Manufacturing employment rose 22,000 and the jobless rate declined from 5.5 percent in July.

``This is reassuring,'' said Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse First Boston Corp. in New York, whose prediction for August matched the median of 150,000 in a Bloomberg News survey. ``The surge of growth that we had over the past year is resolving itself into a slower pace of growth, but growth nonetheless.''

The job rebound may help President George W. Bush deflect criticism about the economy heading into the last two months of the campaign. More hiring may bolster expectations Federal Reserve policy makers will raise their interest rate target by a quarter percentage point for a third time this year on Sept. 21.

Today's report is ``very consistent with the notion that the Fed wants to remove accommodation and normalize interest rates at a `measured pace,''' Soss said.

U.S. Treasury's 4 1/4 percent note maturing in August 2014 fell 5/32 point, pushing up the yield 2 basis points to 4.23 percent at 8:51 a.m. in New York. Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in September lost 2.50 to 1117.10 as of 8:34 a.m. in New York.

Forecasts

Economists expected payrolls would rise by 150,000 last month following a previously reported increase of 32,000 in July, according to the median of 79 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. They expected the jobless rate to hold at 5.5 percent.

Economists such as Ethan Harris at Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York, say the economy needs to create about 150,000 jobs a month to absorb a growing workforce and hold the unemployment rate steady. An average 201,000 jobs a month were added during the record expansion from 1991 to 2001.

``We can all breathe a little sigh of relief,'' said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc., in New York before the report. ``These are the minimum payroll gains you need in order for the consumer to provide enough spending to keep the economy chugging ahead at about 3 percent.''

The unemployment rate, measured through a separate survey of households, fell as more people stopped looking for jobs. The survey of about 60,000 households showed a 21,000 increase in employment and a 152,000 drop in the labor force. Through most of the year, job gains in the household survey outstripped increases shown in the survey of businesses that determines payroll gains.

Election Year

Hurricane Charley, which struck Florida on Aug. 13, had ``no discernible'' effect on August's payrolls, the department said.

The U.S. now has added 1.4 million jobs this year and had a net loss of about 900,000 since Bush took office in January 2001. Bush accepted the Republican Party's nomination to run for a second term last night in New York and said that in a second term he would work to bolster job creation with community tax incentives and job retraining.

Democratic challenger John Kerry, a four-term Massachusetts senator, blames Bush for the loss of jobs since he took office and says those created over the last year generally pay less than those lost. Kerry held a midnight rally in Springfield, Ohio, last night to counter Bush's acceptance speech.

``President Bush is now certain to be the first president since the Great Depression to face re-election without creating a single job'' on a net basis, Kerry said in a statement from Newark, Ohio, after today's jobs report.

Hours and Wages

Employment in service-producing industries, which include retailers, banks and government agencies, rose 108,000 last month after rising 58,000 in July, the report showed. The increase was led by a 45,000 increase in education and health-related jobs. About 10,000 jobs were added in temporary positions.

The 22,000 increase in manufacturing jobs was the biggest since May and was the sixth increase in the past seven months. The manufacturing workweek held at 40.9 hours and overtime was steady at 4.6 hours for a fourth straight month.

Average weekly hours worked by production workers held at 33.8 hours in August.

Incomes increased last month. Workers' average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent, or 5 cents, after a 0.4 percent increase the previous month. Economists expected a 0.2 percent increase in hourly wages. Average weekly earnings rose to $533.03 last month from $531.34 in July.

Chief Executives

International Business Machines Corp., the world's largest computer maker, last month raised its hiring forecast for the year to 18,800 from 15,000. The move will increase the company's workforce to the highest since 1991.

Business has ``been very consistent with a recovering economy, and we don't see any sign that things are slowing down at all,'' said William Zollars, chief executive of Yellow Roadway Corp., the biggest U.S. trucking company, in an interview yesterday. ``We've seen pretty consistent strength across both manufacturing and retail.''

Chief executives are more optimistic about the economy than they have been for two years, anticipating greater sales and hiring through the rest of this year and into 2005, according to a survey released yesterday by the Business Roundtable, an industry lobby group. Eighty-nine percent of executives polled predicted sales would rise over the next six months and 40 percent expected payrolls to increase.

Among blacks, the unemployment rate fell to 10.4 percent from 10.9 percent in July. The jobless rate for Hispanics increased to 6.9 percent from 6.8 percent and for whites fell to 4.7 percent from 4.8 percent.

For teenagers, unemployment declined to 17 percent last month from 17.6 percent. The jobless rate for women fell to 4.7 percent from 4.9 percent. The jobless rate for men increased to 5 percent from 4.9 percent.

[Art]

What's really remarkable is how strong the job market is with such a low unemployment rate like 5.5 or 5.4 now. Considering all that's changing over the last several years, we're really at an incredible position. If the Fed is correct that the economy is as strong as it looks, this rate should continue to fall.

[endzone_dave]

You would hope that with lending rates being incredibly low and Bush spending billions and billions more than he's taking in, the unemployment rate would be where it is.

Try this, go spend $100,000 on you credit cards, you'll look prosperous too.

[Art]

Originally posted by endzone_dave

You would hope that with lending rates being incredibly low and Bush spending billions and billions more than he's taking in, the unemployment rate would be where it is.

Try this, go spend $100,000 on you credit cards, you'll look prosperous too.

We can't go spend $100,000 on our credit cards because the amount of credit one is allowed is tied to your history of payments and your earning power. There are, therefore, limits to what you can do in this regard.

Are you suggesting that you will join me in requesting that our representatives in Congress enact such spending limits so we may never do what we have done for more than a generation with regard to bloated governmental spending? I am encouraged even a liberal such as yourself can come over to the right side of this issue.

When shall we begin to work together to form the movement to force the government to enact spending limits? Let me know your schedule. We have big work to do.

[Zen-like Todd]

Originally posted by endzone_dave

You would hope that with lending rates being incredibly low and Bush spending billions and billions more than he's taking in, the unemployment rate would be where it is.

Try this, go spend $100,000 on you credit cards, you'll look prosperous too.

Do you ever feel embarassed when you make these posts? No? You probably should.

[Kilmer17]

It is now lower than it was when Clinton was re-elected.

The campaign ad almost writes itself.

[Thiebear]

Yah but you dont list the people that stopped looking...

:doh:

Yah but they are menial jobs that give you pride...

:doh:

5.4% (gloom and doom) Quagmire! Wheres that Kerry Uturn speech?

[NavyDave]

Checkers, Burger King must be racking up with these new burger flipping jobs

Unlike liberals Bush isnt spending money to create redundant government jobs he is letting American's with their creativity and entrapraneurial spirit do that for themselves.

[gbear]

Do we just ignore

"The unemployment rate, measured through a separate survey of households, fell as more people stopped looking for jobs. The survey of about 60,000 households showed a 21,000 increase in employment and a 152,000 drop in the labor force. Through most of the year, job gains in the household survey outstripped increases shown in the survey of businesses that determines payroll gains."

?

Yeah, the 5.4% rate looks good, but these numbers have been good for a few months. I suspect this paragraph is the reason Bush hasn't gotten the bump that a "good job economcy" normally gives. Even if they couldn't tell you why, I suspect most people kow anecdotal evidence about why the economy doesn't seem as good in their area as is being portrayed by the rosy numbers.

Now that being said, there is some serious good news in this report for Bush. THe increase in wages helps counter the arguement that the jobs that are available are not the good ones. The increase in manufacturing jobs might help him in some battleground states too.

[Zen-like Todd]

OK guys... riddle me this. From the last line of the article...

The jobless rate for women fell to 4.7 percent from 4.9 percent. The jobless rate for men increased to 5 percent from 4.9 percent.

Sooo.... are there a large number of unemployed hermaphrodites driving up the overall unemployment rate? :laugh:

[SnyderShrugged]

Personally, I do think that we should "ignore" those that "stop looking".

What a pathetic spin on the Job's numbers! Are we supposed to hold anyone but the slacker who decides it's better to watch Oprah all day rather than seek gainfull employment, accountable for them finding a job?

We are at historically low unemployment and that is fact. Compare a 5.4% unemployment rate to almost any other time in history (especially the clinton years) and you will see that this is real success. This combined with record GNP and productivity figures shows us and the world that America is competetive and resilient to recession. This will mean more investment from other nations along with more confidence in the strenght of the American economy in general. Why do some still attempt to minimize good news simply out of partisan poilitics?

It doesnt make any sense!

[Kilmer17]

Those same numbers include people like me who have jobs, but count as unemployed because we are technically a "new business venture".

So that pretty well evens out the quitters.

[Thiebear]

So let me get this straight:

Bush Lost 3 million jobs: not the 9/11 or Airlines or Restaruants and other businesses or the Recession...

Bush then lost 2 million

Then in June Bush lost over a million..

Now they are going to say "Well, Bush lost *almost* a million jobs...

Never noticing we gained almost 3 million jobs back since the trifecta disasters... Alqaeda / CEO stealing / Recession....

[OURYEAR#56]

It's been a good week for the GOP. But the race is just beginning. Numbers can be minupulated. All the ra ra, whoot, and hollaring. You would think the election is won, but like Chris Berman says "that's why you play the game". I'm waiting to see what jobs are being hired for. Where is the new economic era. We had Dot. Com, Yuppies, what area under this president gives me the vehicle to become financially independent, like Dan Snyder.

[Zen-like Todd]

Originally posted by OURYEAR#56

It's been a good week for the GOP. But the race is just beginning. Numbers can be minupulated. All the ra ra, whoot, and hollaring. You would think the election is won, but like Chris Berman says "that's why you play the game". I'm waiting to see what jobs are being hired for. Where is the new economic era. We had Dot. Com, Yuppies, what area under this president gives me the vehicle to become financially independent, like Dan Snyder.

Huh? Dan Snyder got off his ass and started multiple companies. The first ones failed, and then he hit it big. He had entreprenuerial spirit, and guts. That's how you become financially independent, under any administration, in any era. What are you waiting for?

The Dot Com/Yuppy reference is nonsensical, I think that was addressed when you brought it up months ago.

[Kilmer17]

Hey OY. The job offer still stands.

I hired a young guy last year (Dec 1) and he's been busting his ass. Commission only. He is on pace to make 40k in his first year. That sets him up to make 100 in his 2nd year.

Good thing you've spent the last year b!tching about your lot in life.

[Brooklynskinsfan]

in nyc unimployment is 50% for black males

[Phat Hog]

Originally posted by Brooklynskinsfan

in nyc unimployment is 50% for black males

Link/Source please.

[Zen-like Todd]

Originally posted by Brooklynskinsfan

in nyc unimployment is 50% for black males

So, what do you think that means about this administration? I assume you have historical numbers for the unemployment rates of black males in nyc over the last 10-15 years or so. You'd need those numbers to have any sort of context. Additionally, you'd need to explain specifically how Bush's policies have had a geographically localized and racially discriminatory impact.

Until then, its not all that useful. I am interested in what you think is behind it though.

[Brooklynskinsfan]

http://nyc.indymedia.org/newswire/display/95540/index.php

[OURYEAR#56]

Originally posted by Kilmer17

Hey OY. The job offer still stands.

I hired a young guy last year (Dec 1) and he's been busting his ass. Commission only. He is on pace to make 40k in his first year. That sets him up to make 100 in his 2nd year.

Good thing you've spent the last year b!tching about your lot in life.

You still haven't told me what you do. And whose ****ing. Because I ask a question. Come on stop acting all sensitive. You make a 100 in commission, you can keep that. Once again commission is commission, and it fluctuates. You can feel comfortable with that. Once again I ask, there was the Yuppies, Dot.com, and then.......

[OURYEAR#56]

Originally posted by Zen-like Todd

So, what do you think that means about this administration? I assume you have historical numbers for the unemployment rates of black males in nyc over the last 10-15 years or so. You'd need those numbers to have any sort of context. Additionally, you'd need to explain specifically how Bush's policies have had a geographically localized and racially discriminatory impact.

Until then, its not all that useful. I am interested in what you think is behind it though.

I'm interested to think what your thoughts are behind it. Do you think half the African Americans males in NYC are lazy?

[Zen-like Todd]

Originally posted by OURYEAR#56

You still haven't told me what you do. And whose ****ing. Because I ask a question. Come on stop acting all sensitive. You make a 100 in commission, you can keep that. Once again commission is commission, and it fluctuates. You can feel comfortable with that. Once again I ask, there was the Yuppies, Dot.com, and then.......

You are being completely nonsensical. Pray tell, what do you think a Yuppie is?

[OURYEAR#56]

Originally posted by Zen-like Todd

Huh? Dan Snyder got off his ass and started multiple companies. The first ones failed, and then he hit it big. He had entreprenuerial spirit, and guts. That's how you become financially independent, under any administration, in any era. What are you waiting for?

The Dot Com/Yuppy reference is nonsensical, I think that was addressed when you brought it up months ago.

You didn't read the bio did you?

[Kilmer17]

I've told you over and over what my company is and does.

Until you understand that you wont make good money in this country WITHOUT working on commission, you will never get it.

Commission sales fluctuate on the performance of the individual. There is no slacking off.