SI: MMQB- NFL teams will seek value, not stars, in free agency this year

[bubba9497]

Value proposition

NFL teams will seek value, not stars, in free agency this year

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/writers/peter_king/03/01/mmqb/

Free agency begins Wednesday. Meanwhile, the 2003 rushing champion has been charged with conspiracy as part of a federal drug sting; Terrell Owens and Dennis Northcutt have had their free-agent status ripped out from under them; the 49ers are getting ready to fire quarterback Jeff Garcia; the Broncos and Redskins are preparing to announce one of the biggest "trades" of all time; Keyshawn Johnson and Bill Parcells are on the verge of tying the knot; and Jevon Kearse is looking for a new home.

Nice offseason.

The Super Bowl was exactly a month ago, but it now seems very, very far away. I'll begin with a look at free agency, then address the aforementioned news of the week.

I see teams seeking value, not stars, for the most part. At the scouting combine a week ago, I heard coach after coach -- and GM after GM -- talk about how they want to make sure they don't overpay for free agents. NFL team people always say that, but this time I think they mean it. The lesson of the Patriots' two Super Bowl wins in the last three years is a simple one: Don't become entranced by the big-money free agents. Get the value guys, as New England did with Mike Vrabel, Tedy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison.

With that in mind, I put together a short list of unrestricted free agents (players who can leave with zero compensation owed to their old club) and restricted free agents (players who require draft-choice compensation unless they entered the league undrafted) who, by my projection, will sign for an average of $3 million or less per year. So New England center Damien Woody (my guess: He'll end up in Miami, which is dying to bulk up the guts of its offensive line); Buffalo cornerback Antoine Winfield (my guess: Cincinnati, which will throw more money at a quality cornerback than any other team); and Tennessee defensive Jevon Kearse (my guess: Washington, which does not have any semblance of a pass rush), among others, won't be found here.

The Unrestricted Value Board

1. DE Grant Wistrom, St. Louis. I'm stretching a little bit here, because a 27-year-old defensive end who has missed but two games in the last five years might get a pretty good payday. Because he hasn't been a premier pass-rusher (12 sacks in the last two seasons), he probably won't get true premier player money. The Rams really want him back. He's a great team guy. He'd be a good, totally unselfish find.

2. DT Robaire Smith, Tennessee. At 6-foot-4 and 310 pounds and just 26 years old, he's the best run-stopper available. The Titans are pretty snug against the cap and likely not to be very aggressive in trying to win him back. The Patriots are going to do everything they can to re-sign Ted Washington at under $3 million a year; they know what a great run-stopper can mean for a defense. Someone should do the same with Smith.

3. CB Shawn Springs, Seattle. Good cover corner who misses too many games (13 in the last three seasons) and will be a risky sign. Put the money into incentives for dressing for 15 games, let's say, and you'll have yourself a good gamble with a guy who plays the hardest-to-find position on the defense -- shutdown corner. I hear Washington's going to take the plunge with him.

4. TE/FB Jimmy Kleinsasser, Minnesota. He's the best free-agent tight end out there, and he might be the best fullback, too. But look for his pursuit to come from a tight-end-needy team (Washington could surface again) that will use him more for his blocking than for his catching abilities.

5. RB Thomas Jones, Tampa Bay. He got out of the Arizona doghouse and in the good graces (and gameplans) of Jon Gruden, who would like to keep him. But I see more money, maybe from Dallas, being thrown at the resurgent Jones than the Bucs can afford.

The Restricted Value Board

First, a note. Over the years, I've heard quite a few variations of just what restricted free agency is. A restricted free agent (RFA) has completed three years of NFL service, a year less than the unrestricted free agent (or UFA) minimum, and is unsigned. A team can "tender'' an offer to its restricted free agents in one of three ways: at his original draft-pick level, at a first-round draft level, or at a first- and third-round draft level. This is a way of placing a salary-cap value on a player, a worth designed either to make it hard for a desirous team to steal the RFA or to entice a team to sign the player to an offer sheet, then try to work out a trade for him.

The lowest draft pick tender a team can offer this year is $628,000. This means that if you sign an RFA to an original-draft-pick tender, you'd place an offer sheet for $628,000 on the player. If his team did not match the offer, you would get the player in exchange for your draft choice in the round in which he originally entered the league. The next level is $1.368 million, which would bring a first-round pick if the offer were not matched. The top tender is $1.824 million, which would bring first- and third-round picks if a team signed that player and the offer was not matched.

Let's use an example here -- wideout Justin McCareins of Tennessee. The Titans, I'm pretty sure, will tender him at a first-round level. They'd like to keep McCareins, a rising-star deep threat who averaged 17 yards a catch last year. And so if a team offers to sign McCareins to an offer sheet of at least $1.368 million (I suspect Philadelphia might) and the Titans don't match it, they would get a fourth-round pick in return, because that's the round in which McCareins was picked. Because other teams know the Titans love McCareins and are eager to keep him, they'll certainly offer him more than the minimum tender, hoping the Titans don't match. Now, some organizations hope to keep players at a bargain rate by tendering them at the lower level. Pittsburgh, for instance, is trying to keep versatile 6-3, 300-pound defensive lineman Rodney Bailey at the $628,000 level, and he'd only cost a sixth-round pick to sign. Sometimes this works, sometimes it doesn't.

Here are my top five RFA bargains.

1. McCareins. If the Titans were in better cap shape, they'd have signed him to a long-term deal in February. Advice to all teams with a Terrell Owens fixation: Sign McCareins instead. He'll be better over the long haul, and he'll be a solid citizen.

2. RB Correll Buckhalter, Philadelphia. It's doubtful the Eagles will go to great lengths to keep him. I still think he's a good inside-outside runner (second only to Kevan Barlow among backs who entered the RFA market last month; the Niners re-signed Barlow) and will one day, given the right situation chance, become a 1,200-yards-a-season back.

3. RB Dominic Rhodes, Indianapolis. I may be in the minority here, but I think this kid's a very good back with excellent potential. And he's only 25.

4. T Ryan Diem, Indianapolis. Another guy who can benefit from the Colts' $18.4 million cap anchor -- Peyton Manning. He's started 29 games over the past two years and been a huge roadblock for edge rushers. The 6-6, 301-pound Diem has something in common with McCareins: They were both fourth-round picks out of Northern Illinois in 2001.

5. LB Edgerton Hartwell, Baltimore. I have to think the Ravens will resign him, but I wonder what will happen if the cost to do so starts getting prohibitive. All he's done over the past two years is be a great LB-mate for Ray Lewis, with 235 tackles and six sacks. Lewis loves the guy.

"He deserves more respect for what he's done. The real issue is treating Ty right."--Carl Poston, the agent for disgruntled Patriots cornerback Ty Law, who was angered by the contract (a four-year extension worth $26 million) New England proposed last week, as quoted in Friday's Providence Journal.

Law, by the way, has been the highest paid defensive back in football over the past five years, earning $34 million in that time. He has made three Pro Bowls in the five years since signing a deal with an NFL-record $14.2 million signing bonus -- a bonus that, until Champ Bailey signs in Denver this week, has been unsurpassed by a DB or five years.

I love Law. He is an excellent player. But to say in any way that he hasn't been treated with respect is one of the silliest misuses of the English language I have ever heard.

Lambeau Field will host its first non-Packers game next weekend. Five feet of snow will be blown onto the field and the place will host the World Snowmobile Association's Snocross World Championship Series. Whatever that is.

An interesting week at the electronic post office. Here's what you think:

HE'S ANGRY AT TY LAW. From Jack Newton of Austin, Texas: "The predictable 'I'm not getting respect' noise is coming out of Ty Law's mouth now as he and the Pats discuss reworking his contract. I am so sick of these multi-millionaires using their pay scale as the sole indicator of 'respect.' How about the fact that fans sit in unheated seats to watch you, Ty? Isn't that respectful enough for you? I say let Law go. I love the way this team approaches salaries, and if Law thinks he has to break the bank to be considered respected, then let him go to another team.''

Jack, I understand your frustration. Law lashed out at the Patriots the other day and said he didn't like their offer to re-do his contract to lower the cap number from its $9.4 million level this year. Fine. Don't re-do it. Live by the terms of the deal -- the richest contract a cornerback ever signed -- you agreed to five years ago. (Which will probably be eclipsed by Champ Bailey's new contract any minute now -- but seeign as how Law's deal has been the biggest at his position for half a decade, I'd hardly call that a lack of respect from the Patriots.)

HE'S ANGRY AT ME. From BHW of Boston: "Why on earth did you write about 'poor Isaac Hilton' and his bladder issue? Did you NEED to reveal that to a nation of readers? You don't think this guy will be ridiculed in the macho world of sports now that you've broadcast his problem? Maybe he wasn't so scared that he pissed himself, as you imply. Maybe he has an actual urological problem. Either way, it doesn't really matter. You outed him needlessly. And you think the guys at the Delta desk behaved unprofessionally.''

Fair point. Personally, I think it's a topic of interest to readers, and the player is a public figure by virtue of choosing to attempt to play in the NFL. But your points are good ones too. I'd re-think it if I had it to do over again.

HE'S ANGRY AT SHANAHAN. From David of Los Angeles: "Do the Broncos realize they are giving up one the best running backs in the league for a top corner and a pick? I think Shanahan is losing touch with reality and believing too much in the media hype that he will always be able to draft a star runner. The Broncos will learn their lesson.''

I fervently disagree. Shanahan has proven he can find a 1,400-yard running back, and I guarantee you he'll unearth another. He hasn't proven he can find a corner. Did you watch the Denver meltdown at Indy in the playoffs? You'd better have a shutdown corner if you want to win the AFC, with Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Steve McNair and Trent Green in their primes right now.

HE'S ANGRY AT MY SELFISHNESS FOR WRITING ABOUT THE DELTA PROBLEM. From Erik Urban of Burlington, Mass.: "You should stop trying to get readers to feel sorry for or empathize with you. The complaint you levied against Delta for giving away your seats on your flight home fell on deaf ears here. You have no one to blame for the entire situation except your daughter, who apparently couldn't navigate a 'postage-stamp-sized' airport sufficiently in the 15 minutes she had to ensure you boarded the flight home. Bottom line, instead of whining like a 3-year-old with a tantrum, Mary Beth needs to realize that you can't hold up everyone else just because your Daddy writes for Sports Illustrated. I'll continue to read MMQB, but I would appreciate not being solicited for sympathy when you or your family mess up.''

Of the many letters that came in about the Delta problem, and there were a few supportive ones, this one illustrated the tenor of the readers best. Your point: We don't care about your petty and selfish problems, particularly when they're of your own making. Three comments:

1. "Monday Morning Quarterback'' is a pretty long column. It's usually several thousand words. I share some personal things that happen to me -- like the foul ball thing last year, like the Delta mix-up this year -- that some people will find tedious, selfish and boring. Others enjoy reading about it. If it bothers you, I respectfully recommend that you move on to the next item, because I'm going to continue writing about things that happen to me outside of covering football.

2. I tried to convey in the column that the reason I was ticked off was not only that we were bumped when the agents knew we'd be right back. Technically, they had the right to bump us. But as I wrote, the attitude -- ignoring us, refusing to give us an explanation, and then mocking us as one of them walked outside -- is what was so condemnable. As I wrote: "All they had to do, even one of them, was to explain exactly what happened, which they never did, and say they're sorry, but rules are rules, and we had to be there at 3:45, and we weren't. I would have been angry, but not volcanic.'' Mary Beth's Daddy working for SI had nothing to do with this; those guys had no idea who I was, and if they did, who cares?

3. A Delta official from the Cincinnati hub, Tom Brunckhorst, called on Tuesday. Nice man. Said the airline investigated my claim. Said the gate agents were wrong to hold such a hard line when clearly the flight would have gotten out on time. I told him, basically, that I have nothing against Delta, but I won't fly the airlines for a year. I told him I appreciated him being honest. It's over, and we can all move on now.

ABOUT WARNER'S NEXT HOME ... From Shawn Fusco of St. Louis: "While I would love to have Eli Manning as the Rams QB, I realize that is a pipe dream. But what are the chances of San Diego or Arizona trading that pick at the top of Round 2 for Kurt Warner?''

Slim and none. Teams don't give up prime picks for a quarterback who hasn't played well in two years.

I have none. I did not travel, other than a pleasant sojourn to New Brunswick, N.J., last Wednesday for the state regional Mock Trial tournament. I see I have tantalized you.

1. I think the Ravens are confident that Jamal Lewis will not miss time and that that four-year-old drug charges against him will be dismissed. They've got a very good lawyer, Ed Garland, who poked so many holes in the Ray Lewis double-murder case that it looked like Swiss cheese when he got through with it. Having said that, because Lewis was previously suspended in 2001 for four games after violating the NFL's substance-abuse program, the team has to prepare for the chance, this year or next, that he could be suspended again -- or worse. This is troublesome for Baltimore because the Ravens dealt their first-round pick in this year's draft last April to New England for a pick that got them Kyle Boller. They'd better hope running back Musa Smith, last year's third-round pick from Georgia, is more than just a keep-the-seat-warm guy.

2. I think now that Terrell Owens is not going to be a free agent, it obviously alters the dynamics of his offseason, but one thing won't change: He will never wear the 49ers uniform again. Owens is hated by the people who count in San Francisco, the folks who will decide whether he stays or goes, and so they'll find some way to dump him before training camp. Long before camp, I believe. This should flush out the teams that are truly interested in the guy. If I were 49ers GM Terry Donahue, I'd be focused on dumping Owens to the first team that whispered "fourth-round pick'' over the phone to me.

3. I think you have to look at the Jeff Garcia-waiving issue in a broader context than just, "Should Garcia quarterback the Niners this year?" You have to consider it this way: Garcia is 34, coming off a year in which his completion percentage was five points lower than his previous career average, showing signs of diminishing as a player because of the beatings he's taken, with a cap number $8 million higher than Tim Rattay's. Rattay played pretty well when given the chance last year. He had two superior starts (I saw one of them, a 30-10 win over St. Louis, in which Rattay was unflustered and accurate). I would give Rattay the job, take the cap hit, and move on.

4. I think Denver will win the Champ Bailey-Clinton Portis deal.

5. I think the reason Denver comes out ahead is not only because it's harder to find a shutdown corner than it is to find a 1,400-yard back. (You can look it up. In Mike Shanahan's nine seasons at the helm, in six season the Broncos have had a back gain more than 1,400 in a season -- Terrell Davis three times, Mike Anderson once, Portis twice. But the other reason is that Washington is also handing over a second-round pick in the deal. Why? The Redskins are basically trading one of the three best corners in football, a guy who is 25 years old, PLUS the 42nd pick in the draft for one of the five best backs in football. Shanahan has had four different backs who posted 1,000-yard seasons during his tenure, and none were players who were drafted in the first round. He'll make another one out of Quentin Griffin, the kid from Oklahoma taken in the fourth round last year. And Shanahan will now have three picks in the top 55 (24, 42, 55) to fortify some of his team's aging spots. It's funny. The Redskins could have sat there and done nothing with Bailey. They could have not worked the deal with Denver, waited until someone signed the corner, then almost certainly gotten a first-round pick from someone as compensation. That would have left Washington with three picks in the top 42, at manageable rookie cap prices. Now they have one pick in the top 100. How long is Joe Gibbs staying? Two years?

6. I think the Ty Law story will not end pretty. He's on the road to becoming a bitter Patriot, and I can't quite figure out why. Non-quarterbacks usually get one stratospheric signing bonus during their career. Law got his, $14.2 million, in 1999. Now, at 30, he wants another. Considering how superbly he played last year you could argue he deserves it. I would counter that he has two years left on his contract, which already compensates him handsomely (an estimated $51 million) by any standard. Law has been the highest-paid corner in football the past five years and will cost New England more than $9.5 million against the NFL salary cap this year and more than $12 million in 2005. The Patriots, at least under the new regime, do not get cowed by agents and players who say, "You'd better pay up or I'll take my act across the street." If I'm New England, I let Law play for this dough this year, then make a decision on him at the end of the season. If Law holds out, the Pats will have to play hardball and let him sit.

7. I think the reason Dallas is interested in Keyshawn Johnson is that Parcells would rather have a guy who can catch an eight-yard curl from QB Quincy Carter on third-and-six than he would a redundant deep threat. Neither Antonio Bryant nor Terry Glenn (and certainly not Joey Galloway) are not the classic eight-yard curl guys. Johnson is.

8. I think these are my non-football thoughts of the week:

a. Good for Sean Penn. He deserved the Best Actor award, as Tim Robbins did the Best Supporting Actor honor. Robbins' acceptance speech was fantastic, by the way.

b. Billy Crystal's really, really funny.

c. Montclair High Mock Trial Note of the Week: The team is roaring through the regionals. Last Wednesday in New Brunswick, N.J., MHS beat the Warren County champ, Warren Hills (whose lead attorney tried to badger prosecution witness Mary Beth King unendingly -- to no avail, I might add) and then the Morris County champ, St. Elizabeth, to set up a March 8 regional final back in New Brunswick. In all my years of attending events of academia and athletics in my kids' lives, I've never seen one in which the kids seemed so professional, so poised, so prepared to take on the world.

d. Coffeenerdness: Last week, at the Upper Montclair, N.J., Starbucks, I heard a woman order a venti breve latte. "Half and half or heavy cream?" the cashier said. "Heavy cream," the woman replied. That's about 13 ounces of cream, steamed, plus two shots of espresso. I'd love to hear how many calories are in that beverage. It must be like drinking an extra-thick malted shake, with triple the malt. Wow.

e. My rotisserie league draft is three weeks away. I'm trying to deal A-Rod. Just shows you what kind of GM I am, and why I finished ninth in the league last year.

9. I think the Bengals are going to be more of a factor in free agency than they have been for a long time.

10. I think Kellen Winslow Jr., who ran the 40 in 4.47 and 4.55 at Miami's pro day Saturday, solidified his spot in the top 10 of this draft. That's saying something, considering all the talent in this year's crop