Flowtrain Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 In poll posted last week, I saw that 50% of fans were satisfied with the Redskins reported offer for Brunell: $20M with an $8M signing bonus AND a 3rd Round pick. Among the many recent contradictory media reports that have surrounded all things Redskins (including the structure of this particular offer) the one thing that has remained relatively uncontested to this point is the 3rd Round compensation that would likely be provided to the Jags. Assuming the accuracy of that aspect of the deal, and assuming this trade is consummated, I invite you to solve this perplexing riddle. First, we know that a Skins/Jags trade can’t go down without Brunell agreeing to the Skins’ contractual terms in advance. So why would Steinberg advise his client to accept the Skins’ offer, rather than wait to be cut, hit the open market, and initiate an all out bidding war among Washington, San Diego, Miami, Dallas and Tampa? Not only would the latter strategy allow Brunell to drive up his price, but it would also allow him to speak face-to-face with the alternative teams with whom he has thus far been declined access. So why forgo that seemingly better option? There’s only one answer. Steinberg doesn’t believe any of those other teams will beat the Skins’ current offer to Brunell. Let’s put aside the important issue of whether a Brunell’s age or injury history make him worthy of an $8M/$20 contract. Let’s also put aside the less important issues of how the contract and signing bonus will be structured. Because neither have much bearing on a much, much more pressing question: Since the Skins current offer wouldn’t be surpassed on the open market (in Leigh Steinberg’s expert view), why then wouldn’t the Skins just wait and make that world beating offer after Brunell was cut and actually on the open market? In other words, why pay a 3rd round pick just to get on the phone with Brunell when that same call could’ve been made collect? In the event that another team tried to beat the Skins to the punch by talking to the Jags, the 3rd round offer could be used then – when it was needed. Why did Snyder show his hand so soon? These are difficult questions to answer. Some have suggested that this “alone time” with Brunell was necessary because, on the open market, the QB would not have seriously considered the Skins as a viable suitor. Well, if you think that Daniel Snyder is too inept to grab the attention of an opportunistic agent like Leigh Steinberg, then you don't give your owner enough credit. And if you think that a HOF coach like Gibbs commands so little respect that Brunell would’ve ignored his call, then you don't give your new coach enough credit. And if you doubt whether the reported superior bonus offered would’ve tied it all into a pretty package, then you don't give the power of the almighty dollar enough credit. No. Steinberg would’ve closely inspected Snyder’s wallet and Brunell would’ve carefully listened to Gibbs’ assurances – just as he is now. So what gives? Since when are first day draft picks thrown around so recklessly, especially by teams whose stash of 2004 picks has already been stripped away? Since when are draft picks so valueless, especially to teams who will need home grown talent when pending salary commitments to other players balloon? Ahman Green, Jayson Taylor, Hines Ward, Terrell Owens, Curtis Martin – these are the types of players that were found, and can be found, in the 3rd Round. That is, provided you try. I know fans are distracted by many other issues, like Ramsey’s job security or the future of Champ Bailey. But I’m still surprised at how at ease many seem to be with the scenario above. We understand that Snyder obviously wanted to give himself the best opportunity to get the QB targeted by Gibbs. And he's certainly succeeded on that front. But in his haste to get in the door, he seems to have miscalculated. Because if the trade happens, Steinberg essentially tells us that (1) no team would've outbid the Skins, and (2) Brunell would've accepted that same offer on the open market, without any involvement of draft picks. I'm sure there's a very simple explanation that I’m missing. But what is it? In trying to explain Snyder’s actions, let's be so daring as to assume that what is reportedly going to happen (a trade involving a 3rd rounder), actually happens. Let's also try to avoid the following responses: (1) in Gibbs we trust; (2) no deal has happened yet – I will worry then; (3) message boards are no place for speculation or conjecture; or my personal favorite, (4) Jets suck. Thank you and good day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba9497 Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 :laugh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TK Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 Originally posted by Flowtrain Jets suck. Thank you and good day. Sorry, I came in at the end of whatever Flow was saying. That's all I heard. :laugh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBMGreatOne Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 Very very well written, but I think there's more to it than that. I don't know what the status of Brunell's contract is with Jacksonville, but I do know that they owe him a roster bonus in the near future and I have an inkling that that has something to do with his contractual status and them owning some sort of rights to him. I don't know the situation well enough, but I'll bet someone who does can offer you what it is I think you're missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sanders 83 Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 Okay, I have a guess. After we orginally found out we were interested, Steinburg backed off and said the deal with the Skins was not that close. They waited for other teams to make contract offers, but they didn't. So really they don't even know if Snyder's deal could be beat. Giving up a 3rd round pick, would be a big deal, if we weren't getting a player that is a potential starter, and/or would be one of the best back-ups in the league if Ramsey started. You of all people should not underestimate the price of a good back-up. You should know how important they are. Now is it possible for Gibbs to draft a QB capable of the same things Brunell is in the 3rd round? Yes, but will he have the same experience level, and smarts, no. Basically, I think we are giving up a 3rd round choice, for a player who could be a starter, and trying to bypass the possible bidding war if he made it to FA. In otherwords, once again Dan has got his man, and he still remains undeafted in the offseason. As a Jet fan, I would imagine you know that first hand, don't ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Master Jay Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 What's a 3rd Round Pick? What has happen to our team where we our putting so much emphasis on the draft? Our last 2 2nd round picks Betts and Jacobs dont even play. Gardner our 1st round pick from 3 years ago is trade bait. With the 3rd round pick at least we know what were getting. I've been a Skins fan since 72 and think G Allen knew what he was talking about when he said the future is now. We had a great draft last year because we got players that played immediately. Brunell will come in and help our team immediately. We cant say that about any rookie we may draft with the 3rd round pick can we?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba9497 Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 So why would Steinberg advise his client to accept the Skins’ offer, rather than wait to be cut, hit the open market, and initiate an all out bidding war Flaw #1- We don't know what has transpired between Brunell and his agent, however Steinberg has gone out of his way to state in the press nothing is final, (quotes provided below) and that Brunell might not wave his roster bonus to force being cut if all does not go well with the Redskins.. However the final call is Brunell's. Whether he is genuinely interested in the Redskins, or Just setting the price for a contract when he goes to free agency is yet to be seen. We'll know March 1st. Since the Skins current offer wouldn’t be surpassed on the open market (in Leigh Steinberg’s expert view), Flaw #2 -Pure speculation on your part, especially since we don't know exactly what contract numbers are , or length of the contract offered. Also please provide a link where Steinberg has not only stated he advised Brunell to accept the offer, but claimed it is a top dollar offer. and even if Steinberg said this.... how could he know what other teams would have offered? He can't discuss contract with any team not okayed by Jacksonville while Brunell is under contract to the Jags. That is tampering, against league rules why then wouldn’t the Skins just wait and make that world beating offer after Brunell was cut and actually on the open market? In other words, why pay a 3rd round pick just to get on the phone with Brunell when that same call could’ve been made collect? In the event that another team tried to beat the Skins to the punch by talking to the Jags, the 3rd round offer could be used then – when it was needed. Why did Snyder show his hand so soon? Flaw #3- more speculation that there would not be better offers. How can you argue there wouldn't be any better offers, or a bidding war created if Brunell was an UFA. Brunell was targeted by Gibbs, and the FO as the Veteran they wanted to bring on the team. Snyder and company feel that there will be serious interest in Brunell that if he hit the open market, he would have more offers, and more choices of teams. Snyder limited the field. Value of an item is set by the buyer. At the end of the season or next Brunell in any form helps the Redskins improve and make the playoffs, it will be viewed the steal of the year. But if Brunell washes out then Snyder will be laughed at. You can't judge the results before you have the outcome. We understand that Snyder obviously wanted to give himself the best opportunity to get the QB targeted by Gibbs. And he's certainly succeeded on that front. But in his haste to get in the door, he seems to have miscalculated. Because if the trade happens, Steinberg essentially tells us that (1) no team would've outbid the Skins, and (2) Brunell would've accepted that same offer on the open market, without any involvement of draft picks. :doh: please read above.... and again please provide quotes from Steinberg stating #1 and #2 When the deal takes place (or doesn't) and the numbers are known, and review the outcome on how much of impact Brunell actually made to the Redskins, in actually play on the field, and the education of Ramsey.....we can sit back and debate the intelligence of the move, and if the Redskins got their money's worth. Just like when Jet fans stated that Curtis Conway was better than Coles and the Redskins were fools paying Coles so much money...... after this season that argument just looks silly. Some Quotes from Steinberg "They've had daily discussions, which have greatly increased Mark's enthusiasm," Brunell's agent, Leigh Steinberg, said Wednesday. Despite the constant contact between coach and player, details for a new contract have yet to be worked out, according to Steinberg, who has been having his own talks with Redskins owner Dan Snyder. "Dan Snyder and I have had a number of productive discussions, but no deal has been concluded," Steinberg said. http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/sports/articles/0219c5filler0219.html It was reported that Jacksonville was prepared to trade Brunell to Washington, which offered a three-year, $20 million contract. But Brunell's agent, Leigh Steinberg, said Friday that was "premature." "We're not close at this point to agreeing with any team," Steinberg said. http://www.palmbeachpost.com/sports/content/auto/epaper/editions/saturday/sports_04d29a4061fd10d40094.html "We asked to allow Mark to have the opportunity to interact with any coach from a franchise that might be interested in trading for him," Steinberg said. "But they refused permission to anyone except Washington." http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2004/02/13/sports2154EST0515.DTL Finally..... I'm sure there's a very simple explanation that I’m missing. But what is it? In trying to explain Snyder’s actions, let's be so daring as to assume that what is reportedly going to happen (a trade involving a 3rd rounder), actually happens. Let's also try to avoid the following responses: (1) in Gibbs we trust; (2) no deal has happened yet – I will worry then; (3) message boards are no place for speculation or conjecture; or my personal favorite, (4) Jets suck. Thank you and good day. Some nice spin work, taking two of the obvious answer(and correct) and try and eliminate them from the debate before it begins.....by making it appear as childish insults or unintellegent remarks not worthy of a response. (1) in Gibbs we trust; or We believe Joe Gibbs has the vast knowledge and experience judging Personnel, and record of being a winning coach to know what he is doing. (2) no deal has happened yet – I will worry then; or you can't judge something prematurely until the results are in and documented (3) message boards are no place for speculation or conjecture; or (my personal favorite),... I like this, because you already know that all this post is nothing more than bitter speculation or conjecture in an attempt to cause a argument or debate. So you are trying to legitimize it as a worthy argument based on facts... which it is not. Just assumptions you want to appear as facts (4) Jets suck..... I have to give you props. You aren't blind and admit the obvious :applause: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay Master Jay Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 Brunell is a Christian and so is Gibbs they may have more in common then we know. Gibbs is a man that players want to play for. He may have won Brunell over with his truthfulness and honesty. We need a veteran BU and he will have a chance to compete for the job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flowtrain Posted February 19, 2004 Author Share Posted February 19, 2004 Originally posted by Sanders 83 Basically, I think we are giving up a 3rd round choice, for a player who could be a starter, and trying to bypass the possible bidding war if he made it to FA. In otherwords, once again Dan has got his man, and he still remains undeafted in the offseason. As a Jet fan, I would imagine you know that first hand, don't ya? Sanders - the point isn't that Brunell's not worth a 3rd rounder. It's that Brunell could've been had without the 3rd rounder (for the same contract) if Snyder had waited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba9497 Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 Originally posted by Flowtrain Sanders - the point isn't that Brunell's not worth a 3rd rounder. It's that Brunell could've been had without the 3rd rounder (for the same contract) if Snyder had waited. and this is based on what fact? This is a simple concept... you can't judge the deal until you see the results. Just because you believe it is a wasted pick, is hardly final say in the matter. or do you call Ms. Cleo as well :fortune: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flowtrain Posted February 19, 2004 Author Share Posted February 19, 2004 Bubba - let's work this through. First you ask me to provide support for the statement that Brunell is being advised to accept the trade and support the idea that the trade will go through. But I specifically asked you to ASSUME that a trade has gone through. So let's work within those parameters, okay? Next, you ask for quotes stating that Steinberg believes the Skins' offer is the highest out there. You say that since we don't know the terms, we don't know if better offers would exist. But even without quotes from the agent, and even without knowing the terms, we know where Steinberg believes the offer would stand relative others (again assuming the trade happens). Here's why. If Steinberg tells Brunell to go through with the trade, it means he told Brunell to bypass the open market. But if these alleged better offers actually will materialize, then why wouldn't Steinberg allow his client to go get them? Why would Steinberg foreclose his client and himself from the opportunity to make more money, and at the same time help the Jags who he cares little about? These are the questions you don't answer. And for good reason. Steinberg would only skip the open market if he felt he was getting the best offer right now. If he's getting the highest offer from the Skins, and Brunell is happy going there, then why would the result have been different if the Skins waited for Brunell to get cut, thereby saving their 3rd round pick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sanders 83 Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 We don't know if he can be had without the 3rd rounder, and for the same price as we are offering now. Not to mention, we are probably the only team that won't garentee him the starting spot. So yes, it does make sense to give up the 3rd round pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sanders 83 Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 Look, you shouldn't be mad at Snyder because he is one of the few, if only owners in the league that has the balls to pull this off. Look at SD, Mia, and Dal. All of those teams need him far more than we do, IMO. If he gets into FA, which they all expected, then the offers could start going up, but we really have no idea, and neither do you. Once again, Snyder is positioning for another bang out of FA, right out of the gate, and once again, the rest of the league will be unprepared, sitting on their asses. The same thing is going on here. Yes, we could let Brunell go into FA, but why? Why not take him off the market? Why not show him we want him here, before anyone else even gets the chance. Randy Thomas was suppposed to visit with 6 teams, we weren't even one of the orginal teams, but we showed up, made an offer he couldn't refuse, and took him off the market. We are doing the same for Brunell. We may be slightly over paying, but we aren't giving the rest of the league a chance to over pay us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba9497 Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 You want to assume the deal goes through, AND assume Steinberg not only agrees but wants this deal ( without any facts or quotes to support this assumption) and completely ignore Brunell has final say, and his reason for choice could be something other than monetary. Then accept that these unsupported assumption actually prove the Redskins over paid, and wasted a pick. Also ignore the fact that Steinberg couldn't talk with any other team, but accept he knew hat the Skins were the best money deal... I hope you see what's wrong with this picture. your debate posts are like playing 3 card Monte on the street. :laugh: think about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inmate running the asylum Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 Originally posted by Flowtrain I'm sure there's a very simple explanation that I’m missing. But what is it? In trying to explain Snyder’s actions, let's be so daring as to assume that what is reportedly going to happen (a trade involving a 3rd rounder), actually happens. Let's also try to avoid the following responses: (1) in Gibbs we trust; (2) no deal has happened yet – I will worry then; (3) message boards are no place for speculation or conjecture; or my personal favorite, (4) Jets suck. Thank you and good day. There IS a simple explanation that you and everyone has overlooked here. And that is that all parties have some leverage but not all parties have equal leverage in this poker game. And you have overlooked the leverage of the Jags. The Jags wanted as high a draft pick as they could possibly get, so they put a condition on trading for Brunell, which had to be met FIRST. And that was NO TEAM gets to step to the plate and talk to Brunell unless they make a concrete offer to the Jags IN ADVANCE (draft choice) first. If no team can talk to Brunell and his agent personally, then no team knows exactly what Brunell is looking for and going to finally settle for. The Jags have the leverage to demand this, because they can pay Brunell his $2 million roster bonus on March 2nd and NOT release him, and then pay him the remainder of his $6.5 million dollar contract for 2004. The Jags could then release him later during the season or even retain his services until 2005 if they so desired. And their leverage is credible because they did pay him over $6 million the last two years! This is why Steinberg was complaining in the newspapers that the Jags were not allowing any other team to meet with Brunell unless they made a concrete offer. Snyder and Gibbs seriously want to acquire Brunell, so they meet the Jags requirement and secretly offer a 3rd round pick, which allows Gibbs to get the jump on other teams who THOUGHT that Brunell would be a cap casualty on March 2nd. Word leaks out that the Skins have offered a 2ND ROUND pick and $8 million SB over 3 years -- a very high stakes game for a 34 year-old QB -- which scares off other potential suitors. It scares off other suitors because others know that no one is going to outbid Snyder on money matters, when he has his heart set on a player, because he has the largest cash flow in the NFL. But we've only recently found out the offer is really only a 3rd round pick and $20 million over 8 years, not 3 years. But its too late for anyone else interested, because the train has already left the station. Did Snyder leak the info about the initial 2nd round pick and $8 million signing bonus? My guess is that he did. Meanwhile Brunell has finally realized by now although he had his heart set on Miami, that they and others are not going to step to the plate and meet the Jags initial demand. The other teams have folded. Brunell though finally warms to the idea because the interview with Gibbs went well, and what does he care now as long as he is getting $8 million up front guaranteed. Sticking to your question and putting aside whether Brunell is or is not a good acquisition -- Gibbs obviously thinks he can help the team -- we can see here that Snyder is a damn good poker player or at least a good bluffer in my opinion. He usually gets his man. So I know what your next question will be and that is why didn't everyone sit back -- including the Skins -- and let the Jags release Brunell on March 2nd to avoid paying the $2 million roster bonus? In the first place there was a small chance that the Jags might not have done that as we mentioned above. But from the Skins standpoint, they did not want to see Brunell released anyway and become an UFA, even though it will cost them a 3rd round draft pick. Why? Besides getting into a possible bidding war, everyone knew if Brunell was an UFA, HIS leverage would come to the forefront then and he would choose to play for MIAMI as he had stated publicly and not Washington. Therefore the Skins prevented this from happening, by keeping him off the unrestricted free agent market, being willing to pay the price of a 3rd round pick. Meantime Brunell has no reason to complain about not playing for Miami, because he is getting $8 million guaranteed. So we now see that your initial premise that the Skins blundered is not true. The Skins did not blunder but Snyder played a shrewd game of poker to land the player they wanted and everyone thought was going to Miami. As to whether they squandered a 3rd round pick, only time will tell. But I don't think so and my money is on Joe Gibbs as a QB and talent evaluator. Because if you look at the drafts from the past decade, you hardly find ANY 3rd round draft picks that came in as rookies and started for a team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ax Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 Plus, the only pick we had to offer after the 3rd round was the 7th. Jags wouldn't accept that, therefore we would not be allowed to begin talks with Brunell. And how do you know if Mark didn't tell Steinberg (who works for him, not the other way around) "I want to play for Joe Gibbs. Get what you can, but bottom line, I'm going to Washington" AND, how will you feel about giving us two #1's (this years and next) this years third, and Abraham for Bailey. Since we're assuming. > > > Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SKINZ_DOMIN8 Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 I know fans are distracted by many other issues, like Ramsey’s job security or the future of Champ Bailey. No one should have job security on this team.....repeat NO ONE should have job security on this team. NO ONE has played well enough to deserve it. Although sadly some on this board think Patrick Ramsey should be annointed the starting QB job--that is clearly the opinion of some of the posters in here. Bottom Line: Ramsey has done NOTHING NOTHING to even remotely deserve consideration for the starting job. I am tired of seeing this team lose and yet some people on this board want to continue to have a love-fest over a couple of players. If they don't produce then hit the eject button on them. I don't know how clearer I can be on this. As far as Champ is concerned.....we can't trade him fast enough. Has anyone actually realized the blatant stupidity in regards to Champ Bailey wanting to leave? He clearly wants to play for a "winner" but will likely accept a trade to a seriously crappy team like Detroit or Atlanta. Those 2 teams are 5 years from being any legitimate contender for the Super Bowl.:gus: :gus: :gus: :gus: :gus: :gus: :gus: :gus: :gus: :gus: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sanders 83 Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 In other words, Snyder is the man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sanders 83 Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 SKINZ, I think I understand what you are saying. We have 53 crappy players, and all of them should be cut. Right? :rotflmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy-the-Greek Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 Flow, I would like to hear your take on what you as a Jet fan would be willing to give up in a fair trade for Champ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan T. Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 SKINS_DOMIN8, please stop beating that one-note drum on any and every thread. It's making you look foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingdaddy Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 The answer may be more simple than you think. We might be giving up a 3rd rounder for our new starting QB. If that's the case then it might be a steal. Brunell should be perfect for Gibbs and, I know you didn't want to hear this, but, You gotta believe in what Gibbs is doing. Isn't it obvious that he wants Brunell pretty badly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingdaddy Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 Let's remember one thing: Gibbs is running the show now. It's pretty obvious that King Joe wants Brunell to be his starter. In that case, the 3rd rounder is not a bad deal. There's your simple answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince62 Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 a few data points. 1) it is not reflexively the case that trading a draft pick for a vet is a value adding process. the record for the skins has been very spotty in this regard. 2) no one has quantified the risk factor for brunell being injured. this remains my number one concern. I don't think he will last an entire season. he is older and has been beaten up in the past. our o-line will likely improve greatly...but it aint going from worst of the worst (vis pass protection) to best of the best in one short off season. 3) no one has really been assessing what the strategy is that the skins are playing out here. Giving up a 3rd rounder has to be placed in the conttext of this strategy. It certainly isn't clear to me: have the skins accepted that we live in the age of free agency/cap and that planning beyond 3-4 years is a futile process? are we truly living in the "future is now" world. or does a team accelerate the importance of short-term planning, but still maintain certain foundation objectives as long-term? for example, many teams still maintain key triads on offense: qb, wr, rb into the long term as a stable core. what are the skins doing here? is joe planinng for a quick run at a SB and then out? or is he building a more comprehensive vision that stabilizes the franchise even AFTER HE LEAVES. not clear to me yet.....but it is still early in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbooma Posted February 19, 2004 Share Posted February 19, 2004 Well with Vinny and Danny helping in the draft the least picks they have to screw up is fine by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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