PFW: Mock Draft 1-20

[bubba9497]

After San Diego gave up a hefty sum in the form of future draft picks and an exorbitant contract on bust quarterback Ryan Leaf, the Spanos family is leery of getting burned again and is not expected to keep the top pick to draft a quarterback. The Chargers likely will entertain offers from a team that covets either Eli Manning or Ben Roethlisberger, while looking to move down.

With quarterback being a need of both Oakland and Arizona -- the two teams drafting after San Diego -- there could be some simple maneuvering at the top, swapping first-round picks with a mid-round pick included. Or another team looking to stabilize their future quarterback situation, such as the Packers and Bills, could move up the board and give Manning or Roethlisberger the opportunity to be mentored by Brett Favre or Drew Bledsoe. Other teams, like Miami and Pittsburgh, could use upgrades at the quarterback position but more likely will look to the free-agent market for a veteran.

If the Chargers cannot move the top pick, don't be surprised if an offensive lineman is taken first overall for the first time since the Rams selected Orlando Pace in 1997. Iowa offensive left tackle Robert Gallery has the rare size, foot quickness, toughness and durability to protect a quarterback's blind side at an All-Pro level for 10 years and ranks among the top players in the draft. Miami junior tight end Kellen Winslow Jr., whose Hall of Fame father starred for the Chargers in the 1980s, does not play a premium position but ranks among the highest-graded players in the draft and will be an early value pick, going to a team that may not need a tight end but knows he is too good to pass up. Some scouts say he is better than All-Pro Tony Gonzalez right now, and his grade warrants consideration at the top spot, although it's very unlikely he'd go that high.

Whether the NFL allows sophomore wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald to enter the draft could shake up the top-five picks as well. At presstime, he had reportedly petitioned to enter the draft, and there were reports suggesting he would be made eligible, although nothing official had been announced by the league.

The group of linebackers is as strong as it has been since 2000, while much like last year, underclassmen have really bolstered depth at the interior defensive line and receiver positions. Ten underclassmen were selected in the 2003 first round. This year, the crop of underclassmen is so strong that nearly half of the first round could be comprised of underclassmen.

(Editor's note: Because trades will occur and team needs will change after free agency, more attention was paid to projecting the order in which players will be drafted and identifying first-round-caliber players than matching them to the correct team. Juniors are denoted by an asterisk.)

FIRST-ROUND PROJECTIONS

The Pick The Skinny

1. San Diego Chargers

QB Eli Manning

Mississippi Like his brother Peyton in 1998, Manning stands an excellent chance of being the first player taken but may not land with the Chargers, who will be very receptive to trading down to bolster their offensive or defensive line.

2. Oakland Raiders

QB Ben Roethlisberger*

Miami (Ohio) The Raiders have a lot of needs. When Rich Gannon went down, the offense sank, and Gannon is not getting any younger. Roethlisberger has all the tools to be a Pro Bowl quarterback

3. Arizona Cardinals

DT Tommie Harris*

Oklahoma Although he played in a rotation at Oklahoma, which resulted in his average statistics, Harris has the rare quickness and athletic ability to amp up the Cardinals' pathetic pass rush.

4. New York Giants

OT Robert Gallery

Iowa With the Chargers and Raiders in need of line help, Gallery may not be available for the Giants, but Tom Coughlin made Tony Boselli his first pick in Jacksonville and will look to rebuild a struggling offensive line quickly.

5. Washington Redskins

TE Kellen Winslow*

Miami (Fla.) The tight end position is central to Joe Gibbs' offense, and owner Daniel Snyder is a sucker for names with star power. Although D-line help is desperately needed, Winslow is a rare talent.

6. Detroit Lions

RB Steven Jackson*

Oregon State The Lions have not had a potent running attack since the days of Barry Sanders, but Jackson could give their ground game life.

7. Atlanta Falcons (Subject to coin flip with Browns)

DE Kenechi Udeze*

USC Udeze is a converted defensive tackle who shed 70 pounds and emerged as a force off the edge. He'll give Jim Mora a potent weapon.

8. Cleveland Browns (Subject to coin flip with Falcons)

FS Sean Taylor*

Miami (Fla.) Former Hurricanes coach Butch Davis is very familiar with Taylor and will not pass up the chance to draft Winslow or Taylor if either is available, although Shawn Andrews could be enticing considering the Browns' desperate need for a tackle.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars

WR Roy Williams

Texas With Jimmy Smith on the decline, the Jaguars need a premier receiver. Williams stood out more as a junior than as a senior and his stock dipped, but he's still a big-time playmaker.

10. Houston Texans

OT Shawn Andrews*

Arkansas A defensive tackle may be a bigger need, but the offensive line lacks Pro Bowl talent. Andrews is a dominant run blocker who could protect David Carr's blind side for years to come.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers

RB Kevin Jones*

Virginia Tech The Steelers' running game was a major source of frustration last year. Bill Cowher comes from the smashmouth school of football and needs a strong, powerful back.

12. New York Jets

OLB D.J. Williams

Miami (Fla.) With Mo Lewis and Marvin Jones expected to be cap cuts, youth at linebacker is needed. Williams is ready to contribute right away, although his more instinctive counterpart, Jonathan Vilma, may fit better.

13. Buffalo Bills

WR Reggie Williams*

Washington The loss of Peerless Price crippled the Bills' passing attack. Williams had a down year on a struggling Washington offense, but he has the size-speed combination to be dominant.

14. Chicago Bears (subject to coin flip with Titans)

DT Vince Wilfork*

Miami (Fla.) Brian Urlacher struggled without a big body to protect him. Jerry Angelo drafted Warren Sapp in Tampa Bay. If Wilfork can get in better shape and learn to play every down, he has Pro Bowl potential.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WR Michael Clayton

LSU Jon Gruden doesn't have a lot of patience with young receivers, but Clayton is a very fluid, polished athlete who can make fans forget about Keyshawn Johnson.

16. San Francisco 49ers

CB Dunta Robinson

South Carolina The Niners drafted Mike Rumph to replace Jason Webster. Ahmed Plummer is hitting free agency; it could make the Webster the starter -- which the 49ers would probably like to avoid.

17. Cincinnati Bengals

DE Will Smith

Ohio State Smith could come off the board much sooner. He can play linebacker or end and will give Marvin Lewis more flexibility to devise creative schemes.

18. New Orleans Saints

DT Randy Starks*

Maryland This junior is stronger and more instinctive than Kris Jenkins coming out in 2000 and can fill the void left by the release of Grady Jackson.

19. Minnesota Vikings

CB Derrick Strait

Oklahoma The Vikings need to find a premium pass rusher or shutdown corner, and the Nagurski Award-winning Strait is the best available.

20. Miami Dolphins

OL Vernon Carey

Miami (Fla.) The Dolphins need to inject youth into an aging offensive line, and Carey's ability to play guard or tackle will make him attractive.

21. New England Patriots (from Bal.)

RB Greg Jones

Florida State With the Cowboys in need of a running back, expect the Pats to beat them to the punch. Jones was slowed this season coming off reconstructive knee surgery, but his outstanding strength and power make him a great fit in Foxboro.

22. Dallas Cowboys

RB Chris Perry

Michigan Troy Hambrick is not the answer for the Cowboys. Perry could be the most complete back in the draft and also could interest the Patriots.

23. Seattle Seahawks

LB Teddy Lehman

Oklahoma The Seahawks need to keep building their defense. Lehman is stout enough to take on blockers inside and quick enough to play outside.

24. Denver Broncos

CB DeAngelo Hall*

Virginia Tech The Broncos are looking to correct the mistakes they have made drafting cornerbacks (Deltha O'Neal, Willie Middlebrooks) by securing a lockdown corner and valuable return man.

25. Green Bay Packers

J.P. Losman

Tulane The Packers need to address their QB situation before Brett Favre retires. Losman has the most similarities to Favre of any quarterback in the draft.

26. St. Louis Rams

CB Ricardo Colclough

Tusculum Colclough's ability as a returner will force teams to consider him in the first round. With youth needed in the secondary, Colclough will be difficult to pass up, especially with Dane Looker returning punts.

27. Tennessee Titans

OLB Karlos Dansby

Auburn The offensive line is a bigger need, but linebacker wasn't the most pressing need when the Titans selected Keith Bulluck at the end of the first round in 2000. Dansby is an athletic playmaker with LaVar Arrington-type potential once he matures.

28. Philadelphia Eagles

WR Rashaun Woods

Oklahoma State Woods may fall out of the first round because of his lack of speed, but he has more playmaking ability than any current Eagles receiver.

29. Indianapolis Colts

DT Marcus Tubbs

Texas Tubbs is a solidly built, physical specimen who can bolster the Colts' interior defensive line and improve the weak link in their run defense. He's an athletic two-gap tackle who fits their scheme.

30. Kansas City Chiefs

CB Chris Gamble

Ohio State The Chiefs need a No. 1 receiver, and Wisconsin's Lee Evans could be intriguing, but the offense wasn't the reason the Chiefs didn't advance in the playoffs. Gamble is raw but has tremendous upside and could develop into the best cornerback the Chiefs have had since Dale Carter.

31. Carolina Panthers

LB Jonathan Vilma

Miami (Fla.) Vilma has very similar size and instincts to former Hurricanes LB Ray Lewis and could easily be drafted in the same 26th slot, where he could re-unite with former mentor Dan Morgan.

32. New England Patriots

C Jake Grove

Virginia Tech The Patriots likely will entertain trade offers to avoid having to pay two first-round selections, but if they keep the pick, they will be seeking help up front. Grove could play center or guard.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?page=pfw/2004mockdraft1sz

[Destino]

Well that sucks....all the good RB's are gone in the first round. I guess Gibbs is going to learn the hard way that Betts is a bum.

[Ghost of]

Will they stop talking about Snyder being a sucker for "star power!" Snyder wants to WIN, dammit, and we already have stars on this team, especially if Patrick can stay healthy and get some protection.

What we need is NOT a TE, especially since Ben Watson and Ben Troupe are just as athletic as Winslow.

[Prosperity]

There is no way in the world we will pick Winslow ahead of Taylow if he is available.

[Yomar]

they said this was not as much about team needs as it was their projected player values

ALL KNUCKLEHEADS WHO THINK HARRIS IS NOT WORTH THE #5 NOTE THAT TOMMIE HARRIS IS #3

[OURYEAR#56]

I was an advocate for Winslow in the past, now I have too change my mind. I hope we trade down and get two defensive players. We need to get both Ubeze and Derrick Johnson. I feel the TE is important to Joe, but that was when the TE had to block LT coming off the edges. I think we'll pick up the guy Kleinssuaser. He's the prfect H-back, and he can block like an OT. He would be perfect to put in motion. Those people that think we''l pick Winslow or Taylor are setting us up to keep loosing. We need depth and role players, not stars.

[Griff]

Originally posted by Equality

There is no way in the world we will pick Winslow ahead of Taylow if he is available.

You may be right, but Joe Gibbs is very, very high on KW2.

[Chopper Dave]

Originally posted by Ghost Who Talks

Will they stop talking about Snyder being a sucker for "star power!" Snyder wants to WIN, dammit, and we already have stars on this team, especially if Patrick can stay healthy and get some protection.

What we need is NOT a TE, especially since Ben Watson and Ben Troupe are just as athletic as Winslow.

Wrong. First of all, it is possible for Snyder to want both. And when Kellen Winslow is not only a big name but a huge talent, he's the perfect Snyder pick. And also, to say Watson or Troupe combined are half as athletic as Winslow is dead wrong. There is a reason that everyone is touting him as the best TE prospect ever. He's got better receiving ability than most pro receivers, and he's bigger than all of them (except Boston, maybe). He can also block significantly better than most receiving TEs, and is getting better, quickly, especially if he's playing for Gibbs. He has a massive frame, and although he's listed at 230, he's probably closer to 245-250, and can get bigger w/o losing any athletic ability. He truly, truly is a can't miss. When was the last time a player was guaranteed to be an all-time great at their position before they even enter the league? It's pretty much like that.

With that said, we need help on the D-Line too much, and I'd rather have someone who fits the H-Back mold a little better. But if we could somehow get this guy and get the defensive help we need, then watch the hell out is all I can say.

[TODD]

Atleast someone else is noticing Yomar. Him or Taylor seem to fit. I will be heartbroken if my boy goes to Dallas though....

[Ernie5]

owner Daniel Snyder is a sucker for names with star power

More of this garbage. When will people stop holding 2000 against him? He's come out many times and admitted it was a mistake.

[Ghost of]

Dcogan

I hate to break it to you, but college coaches have said and scouts have said that if Troupe and Watson played in Miami they'd be getting the pub too.

Sure, Winslow is a more athletic RECEIVER(in terms of catching) but he's no better a prospect than Watson, who runs a 4.5 and is a legit 260 lbs. Watson is also a bad-ass blocker.

What i find equally hilarious is that this guy doesn't produce on some all-world level, his avg per catch even the year before Brock "I suck" Berlin wasn't anomalous in any way.

Troupe is questioned on his blocking but Watson is not. Give me Watson and a better investment in terms of value with the fifth, or at least trade down to grab some more players.

[Even Madder]

Snyder is a sucker for star power. There's just no getting around that. Take a look at his track record as GM of the Skins. But he's got Joe Gibbs whispering in his ear now, and Joe's not impressed with your soup commercials or Ferraris.

That said, I don't think it's a stretch to see Gibbs picking Winslow. There may not be any DEs or DTs worthy of the #5, and Winslow appears to be one of those rare superstars that you don't pass over.

Of course, it's equally likely that they'll try to trade down to grab more picks.