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The Game Prediction Thread - The Commanders Vs. The Packers ~ Code Yellow with Holes!


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32 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

Rodgers did not practice yesterday with a thumb injury.  They also have Joe Barry as their defensive coordinator.  I suck at making actual score predictions but this is going to be closer than people are anticipating.  

Yea Joe Barry leading them to a top 5 defense in YPG and top half in PPG. Don't trust Scott Turner to even outscheme Joe Barry

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1 hour ago, DJHJR86 said:

Rodgers did not practice yesterday with a thumb injury.  They also have Joe Barry as their defensive coordinator.  I suck at making actual score predictions but this is going to be closer than people are anticipating.  

Line has GB by 4.5   

Wondering if we see it changing any?  Im giving Washington a shot in this one.

 over / under 41.5    thinking the under right now

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It’s simple…even with the packers playing crappy right now, they are still the Packers, and they still have Aaron Rodgers 

 

This team has been the get back for so many teams in the last 2 decades it’s insane nothing this season not even a win over the Bears changes that, worst I’ve felt after a win ever. 
 

Packers: 24

Stupid team, stupid franchise, stupid owner: 9 

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6 hours ago, Hdf561 said:

It’s simple…even with the packers playing crappy right now, they are still the Packers, and they still have Aaron Rodgers 

 

This team has been the get back for so many teams in the last 2 decades it’s insane nothing this season not even a win over the Bears changes that, worst I’ve felt after a win ever. 
 

Packers: 24

Stupid team, stupid franchise, stupid owner: 9 

I can’t ****ing believe I’m doing this…my kids have been crushing it in school and sports the last several months and I wanted to do something for them and they said they want to go to this game! It will be our first time at FedEx since 2018 and I said I wasn’t going back as long as Snyder was the owner….I can’t believe I’m giving this douche my money! You can bet I’ll be wearing REDSKINS stuff since I don’t own anything commanders, and to be honest this is gonna suck, I’m gonna hate it, can you imagine dreading going to an NFL game but I am…no one can ever say I don’t love my kids….see ya Sunday I guess I’ll be the guy crying in the corner wearing a Doug Williams jersey at the hooters. 

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It's been a while, but I'll throw my hat into the ring this week...

 

Head: Packers 27, Commanders 20

This game just smacks of a "get-right" game that opposing teams always seem to have against Washington when they are struggling. That and the Packers are still the better team with the far better QB.

 

Gut: Commanders 24, Packers 23

Something tells me that the Commanders are going to rally around Heinike and the defense (especially the D-line) is already starting to gel and are generating pressure. The Packers' O-line has had its share of problems protecting Rogers and I have a feeling that will continue on Sunday.

 

Liver: Packers 42, Commanders 10

What my head said, but waaay drunker.

 

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On 10/19/2022 at 6:14 PM, Voice_of_Reason said:

He doesn’t have the talent to play well.  That’s the problem. 

 

 This could be true, guess we'll just have to wait and find out.

BUT:

In the grand scheme of things { or my corrupted twisted mind } I think this may be the start of something interesting.

The Vikings are atop their division, and GB is in turmoil { or at least about to be }, and with TH starting { not that it would've made a difference had it been Howell } I somehow have a notion of this happening; GB loses this game, the Vikings will pull away with the division, and the Commies will go on a winning streak, to the degree that they will be playing meaningful football in December.

I've seen this sort of thing happen before, long ago when I actually cared about football so I can easily envision this happening. The NFCE will have every team within 2-3 games of each other when its all said and done, but I just have this crazy feeling GB will fall apart and the Commies will make things very interesting the remainder of the season, IF, TH plays up to his level that he's capable of. 

 

I could be wrong...

 

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I have seen very reasonable cases made by some respected NFL talking heads that have us with a good shot of winning a close game.

 

I agree that it's quite possible and I'd love to see it, all peeps' personal qb/owner stances aside. Id like to see it for the sake of the players, and I'd say "but they have to go get it" but I'd add the coaches have to call better plays and make the kind of on game adjustments they haven't been doing well 

 

GB has been awful on defense and even with our up and down (at best) o-line performance we have the the tools, even with qb limitations no matter which qb we put out there, to do this if GB plays like they have been.

 

Our d, while inconsistent, has improved on 3rd downs and our sack/pressure stats  are encouraging. Aaron's struggles under pessure and his lack of cohesion with newer receivers, as well as their offensive scheme being tough for this new group apparently  has been an issue for GB.  

 

I know what the board will likely look like with a win (not gonna name it here) but I do want one for the players.

 

Go durrs!!!🙃

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26 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

@JumboI haven’t watched GB play this season, but by the stats their D seems pretty good? 

 I've watched two games through, and tend to devour a fair amount of the usual media. 

 

Their d has played weak against the run when I watched and can get burned passing wise if you adjust to them in-game. They can get on a roll but don't show resilience or quickness in making their own adjustments when needed. Don't really get why.

 

The o has been particularly weak the last six quarters as part of their overall issues. Matt seems a bit locked into scheme when scheme isn't really working, but that sort of deal has been kinda standard forever for many teams.

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40 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

 I've watched two games through, and tend to devour a fair amount of the usual media. 

 

Their d has played weak against the run when I watched and can get burned passing wise if you adjust to them in-game. They can get on a roll but don't show resilience or quickness in making their own adjustments when needed. Don't really get why.

 

The o has been particularly weak the last six quarters as part of their overall issues. Matt seems a bit locked into scheme when scheme isn't really working, but that sort of deal has been kinda standard forever for many teams.

 

Barry was bad at making adjustments when he was here as well.

 

On the radio this morning Boomer Esiason said Matt wants to run his offence and Rodgers doesn't like it and wants his version and so there is a bit of tension between the two.

 

Boomer and his co-host both confidently picked Commanders to win. 😊

 

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8 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

We don't have to wait to find out.  He played 15 games last season.  Anybody with 2 eyes and any concept of football knowledge already knows.  

 Apparently you WILL have to wait and find out. 

By your logic GB should have traded Rodgers away in 2008 when they went 6-10 or 7-9. Once a QB has a bad year its time to get rid of the bum. 

Got it !

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6 hours ago, Jumbo said:

I have seen very reasonable cases made by some respected NFL talking heads that have us with a good shot of winning a close game.

There is literally only one reason why we even have a shot at winning this game.  Though, I completely agree, it is the great equalizer:

 

Joe Barry

 

Joe Barry is the Defensive Coordinator of the Green Bay Packers.  And he's historically, based on metrics, the worst DC in the history of the game. And he's probably worse than the metrics and analytics indicate.   

 

The blueprint for beating Taylor Hienicke was unveiled last year, and it's pretty simple:  Stack the box to stop the run, jam the receivers at the LOS, TH can't throw into tight windows or beat you deep.  You win. They literally can't do anything against you.  They might complete a few short passes, but the defender has enough time to close and make tackles. TH's limitations make playing defense easy.  

 

Except if you have Joe Barry as the opposing DC.  In which case, you always have an opportunity.  He's that bad.  

 

Barry, of course, might be too much of a fool to watch last year's film in anything other than the GB game which he coached in.  So, he's most likely going to play his read-and-react, sit back and let teams maul us defense that he's been famous for in each of his stops.  This means there is a chance the offense could actually move the ball a little bit, because GB has been run on this year, and if Barry doesn't adjust, we will run the ball on them also. We might run the ball 50 times in this game if they don't adjust to stop it.  And my money is, they won't.  Because Barry is the purest definition of a bad coach.

 

I could see a scenario where we run the ball 50 times, control the clock, the defense harasses Rodgers enough, and we win 9-6 with a 45 - 15 TOP advantage, with TH throwing ~15 passes. 

 

That could actually happen.  

 

The reason that could happen?  Joe Barry.

 

Literally any other DC in the league, we have no shot.  

 

Amazingly, this is like the 1 game TH could actually QB a winning performance.  And it happens to be his first start.  

 

FWIW, if Wentz was playing, or Howell, or my kid sister who is 4'9" 1/2, I would employ exactly the same game plan. 

 

If there ever was a game to run the ever-loving snot out of the football and not throw a pass the entire game, this would be it.  

 

I still put my money on Rodgers to do one more good thing than the number of bad things Barry is going to do, and they will win a close one.  I don't think we can get over 13 points in almost any scenario, even with Barry as the DC.  Unless GB really, completely, and totally implodes.  Which, I guess they could.  

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2 minutes ago, skins island connection said:

 Apparently you WILL have to wait and find out. 

By your logic GB should have traded Rodgers away in 2008 when they went 6-10 or 7-9. Once a QB has a bad year its time to get rid of the bum. 

Got it !

No.  Rodgers has elite talent and skill, which was evident the minute he took the field.

 

TH can't throw a 15 yard out without lofting the ball.  

 

THAT'S why we know TH's ceiling.  It's not that TH had a bad season last year.  It's that he doesn't have the talent to have a good season.  It's why all 32 teams passed on him in the draft, why he was out of the league sleeping on his sister's couch.  Even Ron and Scott didn't sign him when he was a FA and they landed here, which they could have, for literally nothing.  Instead they opted to trade a 5th for Kyle Allen.  

 

He had one good game against Tampa in the playoffs, and then played 15 games last year.  He had 2 good games, and about 8 horrendous games, and 5 average games.  

 

I love his moxie, I love his effort, and I love the fact he's going to give it everything he's got.

 

But what he's got isn't good enough.  It's the same reason why Ryan Grant couldn't be a starting WR. Rob Kelly couldn't be a starting RB.  Luavao couldn't be a starting guard.  Reed Doughty couldn't be a starting Safety.  Coaches fall in love with these try-hard, super smart players.  But in the end, if you don't have the physical tools, you just can't play in the NFL.  

 

The caveat is it might be good enough for this game because Joe Barry might make him that good because of how bad he is.  But that will be fool's gold.  It will come crashing down soon enough.  

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5 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

No.  Rodgers has elite talent and skill, which was evident the minute he took the field.

 

TH can't throw a 15 yard out without lofting the ball.  

 

THAT'S why we know TH's ceiling.  It's not that TH had a bad season last year.  It's that he doesn't have the talent to have a good season.  It's why all 32 teams passed on him in the draft, why he was out of the league sleeping on his sister's couch.  Even Ron and Scott didn't sign him when he was a FA and they landed here, which they could have, for literally nothing.  Instead they opted to trade a 5th for Kyle Allen.  

 

He had one good game against Tampa in the playoffs, and then played 15 games last year.  He had 2 good games, and about 8 horrendous games, and 5 average games.  

 

I love his moxie, I love his effort, and I love the fact he's going to give it everything he's got.

 

But what he's got isn't good enough.  It's the same reason why Ryan Grant couldn't be a starting WR. Rob Kelly couldn't be a starting RB.  Luavao couldn't be a starting guard.  Reed Doughty couldn't be a starting Safety.  Coaches fall in love with these try-hard, super smart players.  But in the end, if you don't have the physical tools, you just can't play in the NFL.  

 

The caveat is it might be good enough for this game because Joe Barry might make him that good because of how bad he is.  But that will be fool's gold.  It will come crashing down soon enough.  

 

 How DARE you call Joe Barry a poor DC!!  lol

No, I get what you're saying, and personally I doubt that TH will even last the season if it comes to that. Right now neither of us have a say in who starts, and he's been thrusted into the limelight once again, and I feel that he may have that Tampa playoff-type game where he surprises everyone, but then again he may crap the bed, but if he gets it going and plays really good, what do you do? Pull him to save chances at draft order or keep fighting to win games? 

He's the type of QB that will need alot of help to win games, but we've all seen stranger things happen...

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4 minutes ago, skins island connection said:

 

 How DARE you call Joe Barry a poor DC!!  lol

No, I get what you're saying, and personally I doubt that TH will even last the season if it comes to that. Right now neither of us have a say in who starts, and he's been thrusted into the limelight once again, and I feel that he may have that Tampa playoff-type game where he surprises everyone, but then again he may crap the bed, but if he gets it going and plays really good, what do you do? Pull him to save chances at draft order or keep fighting to win games? 

He's the type of QB that will need alot of help to win games, but we've all seen stranger things happen...

Well, he's going to play 4 games.  This one is winnable solely because of Joe Barry.

 

Could they beat Indy in Indy?  Maybe?  They're not exactly lighting the world on fire, but they've been playing better recently, and they at least have a DC who isn't the literal worst DC in the history of the NFL.  That gives them somewhat of an advantage.

 

Then they're likely going to get curb-stomped by Minnesota and Philly. 

 

So, best case, he goes 1-3 before Wentz has the possibility of coming back.

 

It's most likely 0-4.  Because as bad as Barry is, Rodgers is still the GB QB, and I have faith that he'll find a way to do a few good things.  

 

Then you have a decision. At 2-8, what is the real point of bringing Wentz back?  I mean, could you go on a 7 game run and finish 9-8 and get yourself back into contention?  I mean, stranger things have happened.... but not many and not often. 

 

So, you probably ride TH for a week or two more, then flip to Howell, and with any luck Snyder is forced to sell and there is a new ownership group, coach and GM to figure out how to pick up the pieces going forward.  

 

What I think will happen?  Ron will re-insert Wentz to try and get him comfortable for next year, they'll win 2-3 games, finish 4-13 or 5-12, they'll stick with Wentz, and try and load up on the OL and do it all again next year. 

 

That's not what I would do, but eh, I don't get to make the decisions.

 

One way or another though, Heinicke is probably back out of the league this time next year because Howell will be the backup and nobody else except for Scott Turner is going to sign him.  

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I feel so little for this game. Don't even have much of an opinion about which way it will flip flop as both teams have looked terribi-bad.

 

Expecting an offensive barn-burner kinda similar to last week. The kind where you burn down your barn down so you don't gotta watch this drivel anymore.

 

At the end of the day, I'll bet on A-Rod. Even if he is under siege he will play better than Fields.

I think we lose a close ugly game in what might be Butt Bowl II: The Poo Party.

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