Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[The Sisko]

On 5/25/2023 at 11:18 AM, Dan T. said:

My guess is that Putin's aim is to prolong this war through his hoped-for reelection of Donald Trump and a subsequent collapse of U.S. support for Ukraine's war effort.  And he will engineer a meddling effort in the 2024 U.S. election that will dwarf Russia's involvement in the 2016 election.

 

The first sign is that recent list of Americans Putin sanctioned - opponents of Trump and foes of the insurrection.

It’s probably his only hope at this point. The problem is, by the time Tя☭mp would get into office, Putin’s military will be so worn down that what the Europeans can provide might be enough for Ukraine to push them out completely or at least hold onto whatever they’ve won back, which is likely to be substantial. Not to mention that by that time, given his ever weakening political position, Putin may have already been out of power for some time.

Ukraine has prosecuted this war with amazing tactical/strategic skill and top level creativity to keep the Ruskies on their back foot almost the entire time. We’ve helped them with a lot of materiel and intel, but from the outside, it seems they’ve retained most, if not all control of the decision making. Even if, or as I expect, when Tя☭mp is elected, Russia will be of little concern to them or the world, other than their having nukes and a boatload of the world’s petroleum resources.

[China]

Ukraine claims Russia planning ‘massive’ incident at nuclear site

 

Ukraine’s defence ministry has warned that Russia plans to simulate a major accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station, which is under the control of Russian forces, in a bid to thwart the expected counteroffensive by Ukraine to retake its territory captured by Moscow.

 

The Zaporizhzhia plant, which lies in an area of Russian-occupied southern Ukraine, is Europe’s biggest nuclear power station and the area has been repeatedly hit by shelling with both sides blaming each other for the dangerous attacks.

 

Click on the link for the full article 

[China]

Former Russian commander in Ukraine says Putin could be overthrown by the Wagner mercenary army

 

Vladimir Putin could be ousted by Russia's private military group, the Wagner army, according to Igor Girkin, a former Federal Security Service officer who once led a group of Russian militants in Donetsk.

 

Girkin, who is also known by his alias "Strelkov" and is now a prominent war blogger , said that Wagner's chief Yevgeny Prigozhin could overthrow the Russian president, the Daily Mail reported.

 

"If Prigozhin remains the head of Wagner, the mutiny will come quickly and radically," Girkin said in a video shared by WarTranslated.

 

"A coup attempt has been declared...What will happen next, I don't know, especially as Wagner is urgently withdrawn to rear bases...The danger of a looming coup is clear."

 

Prigozhin, who was once close with Putin, has in recent months repeatedly criticised Russian defense ministry. Last week he said that Ukraine has gained more troops and more weapons since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

 

The Wagner founder added to his feud with Russia's public leaders when he claimed that the Ukraine war had backfired, according to The Hill. He counted large losses to the Wagner Group in their pursuit of Bakhmut, as well as the Ukrainian army's strength, while suggesting that Russia's top leadership should be changed.

 

Girkin has been critical of the impact of the invasion of Ukraine on Russia.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[Cooked Crack]

 

 

[PleaseBlitz]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/30/moscow-drones-kyiv-russia-counteroffensive/

 

Quote

Putin said that Ukraine was trying “to intimidate” Russia and Russian citizens, and that the attack aimed to provoke “a mirror response” from Moscow.

 

“This, of course, is a clear sign of terrorist activity,” Putin said during a visit to a cultural center.

 

Russia has reduced multiple Ukrainian cities to rubble and sent thousands of bombs and rockets into Kyiv, but two drones hitting Moscow is "terrorist activity." 

[TradeTheBeal!]

Another pitiful attempt at a false flag to try and turn the tide.

 

Good luck, Vlad.

[Larry]

6 minutes ago, TradeTheBeal! said:

Another pitiful attempt at a false flag to try and turn the tide.

 

Good luck, Vlad.

Oh, I wouldn't claim it's impossible that it was Ukraine. (Or someone associated with). 

[PleaseBlitz]

I kinda think it was Ukraine. They asked their SecDef and he basically said “I’m not saying we did it, but I am saying they deserved it.”

[Riggo-toni]

I don't think it's a false flag. Given the minimal explosive charges, I am guessing Ukraine/Russian partisan groups did this with Ukraine's blessing to force the Russians to move some of their anti-aircraft systems away from the front lines and back into Russia proper.  There were reports months ago that S-300 and other systems defending Russian cities were relocated to Ukraine after HIMARS started depleting Russian systems near the front lines, including repurposing surface to air systems as surface to surface missiles. Russia assumed its territory was safe, since Ukraine pledged not to attack across the border with western supplied weapons.  These attacks may embarrass/worry Moscow enough that they have to retrieve that equipment to protect their own elite.

[Gurgeh]

4 hours ago, Riggo-toni said:

I don't think it's a false flag. Given the minimal explosive charges, I am guessing Ukraine/Russian partisan groups did this with Ukraine's blessing to force the Russians to move some of their anti-aircraft systems away from the front lines and back into Russia proper.  There were reports months ago that S-300 and other systems defending Russian cities were relocated to Ukraine after HIMARS started depleting Russian systems near the front lines, including repurposing surface to air systems as surface to surface missiles. Russia assumed its territory was safe, since Ukraine pledged not to attack across the border with western supplied weapons.  These attacks may embarrass/worry Moscow enough that they have to retrieve that equipment to protect their own elite.

 

There've been mixed opinions on what kind of drones were used based on the footage, but the majority are saying it was a "Beaver" drone which are known to be used by Ukraine, and have plenty of range.

 

The Russians already have the systems in place around Moscow to shoot drones down, or to ECM them - Putin will always prioritise his own protection, wherever he is. If Ukraine had their own missiles with the range to hit Moscow then the Russians would divert more S-300s, but they won't bother just for little drones.

 

What they will care about is how far the drones flew before they were detected. Reading between the lines where the Russians have talked about making "improvements" to their defences after the attack, it sounds like they'll station more radar systems between the capital and Ukraine. While those systems likely won't come from the front lines. they'll become unavailable to replace any lost in action in Ukraine and put further strain on Russia's limited production of high tech equipment.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

If Ukraine targeted residential areas they should be held to the same standard as Russia in that regard.

[The Sisko]

One youtuber I follow speculated that Ukraine was targeting a base near Moscow and when the Russians hit them with countermeasures, the drones went out of control. Many Russians actually cheered the result because the neighborhoods that were hit were those of the Russian elite. That and the minimal damage makes me think it was more about the propaganda/political value than it was payback for the attacks on Kiev. Given the Russian talking heads going on about how Russians cheering the attack should be charged with treason, I’d say it worked.

[The Sisko]

11 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

If Ukraine targeted residential areas they should be held to the same standard as Russia in that regard.

Agreed. They should get the same punishment as Russia did when they invaded Chechnya, Georgia, etc. Maybe Zelensky should get the same punishment Putin received for the false flag bombing of Russian apartment buildings he used as a pretext for invading Chechnya. Of course nothing was ever proven about Putin in that case but the same holds true for Zelensky.

[Larry]

24 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

If Ukraine targeted residential areas they should be held to the same standard as Russia in that regard.

 

So, nothing?  

[PokerPacker]

1 minute ago, Larry said:

 

So, nothing?  

We should go full Susan Collins on them.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

6 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

So, nothing?  

Should be condemned.

[Gurgeh]

8 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

If Ukraine targeted residential areas they should be held to the same standard as Russia in that regard.

 

If they did, then yes. The problem is there's no way of knowing what they were targetting, because the drones were shot down before they got wherever they were heading.

 

There's also the issue of scale. This was 8 small drones. The Russians on the other hand have fired hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles that have deliberately targetted hospitals, fire stations and apartment blocks. So the level of any condemnation should match the scale of the violations.

[China]

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

Poor guy 

[China]

Russia-Ukraine war live: Moscow says it has repelled major offensive as Ukraine military says it has ‘no information’ on claim

 

Ukraine’s military said on Monday it had no information about a major offensive which Russia said Kyiv had launched in the Ukrainian region of Donetsk, Reuters reports.

 

Ukraine may not have formally declared its counteroffensive has begun, but the attacks being reported on Russian lines overnight and into Monday morning look like the first steps of what is likely to be a tough military campaign.

 

Individual reports should be viewed sceptically but taken together they can build up a picture. What is clear is that there is not an all-out assault, but also that the level of forces being committed are non-trivial. These are not exploratory raids, but most likely probing attacks, searching for local Russian weaknesses.

 

If the Russian Ministry of Defence is correct, and Ukraine has attacked with two brigades, that amounts to a force of several thousand troops.

 

There is also evidence of Ukraine undertaking attacks elsewhere on the 1,000km front. The leader of the Wagner mercenary forces, Yevgeny Prigozhin, complained that Russian troops had fled from part of Berkhivka, a village north of the recently taken Bakhmut, on the eastern front, suggesting that exploratory attacks may not only be taking place in the south.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[Gurgeh]

Russian bloggers fill in counteroffensive blanks as Kyiv’s troops probe frontline | Ukraine | The Guardian

 

The Kremlin was quick to declare the attack repulsed, but several in Russia’s community of ultra-nationalist military bloggers were more sceptical. Relying on their own sources, they suggested Ukraine had made some initial gains. Igor Girkin, perhaps the best known, said the Russian MoD’s statements were “not quite true”, that “the enemy managed to cut into our position”, and argued that it looked likely the counteroffensive had finally begun.

 

War Gonzo, run by the war correspondent Semyon Pegov, was more specific. The blog suggested Ukraine had penetrated 2km into Russian-held positions before Novodonetske, between Velyka Novosilka and Vuhledar. Kyiv’s forces were using western mechanised vehicles to bring up reserves, the blog added.

 

Individual reports should be viewed sceptically but taken together they can build up a picture. What is clear is that there is not an all-out assault, but also that the level of forces being committed are non-trivial. These are not exploratory raids, but most likely probing attacks, searching for local Russian weaknesses.

[TradeTheBeal!]

Russia must be having a tough time the last 24 hours cause the disinfo bots and trolls are swarming on Twitter.

 

Hit dogs holler.

[TradeTheBeal!]

Welp.

 

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

This kinda hurts Russia more than Ukraine… so I wonder if Ukraine did it….

[China]

19 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

This kinda hurts Russia more than Ukraine… so I wonder if Ukraine did it….

 

More likely Russia...

 

From earlier this year:

 

Russia is draining a massive Ukrainian reservoir, endangering a nuclear plant

 

Russia appears to be draining an enormous reservoir in Ukraine, imperiling drinking water, agricultural production and safety at Europe's largest nuclear plant, according to satellite data obtained by NPR.

 

Since early November 2022, water has been gushing out of the Kakhovka Reservoir, in Southern Ukraine, through sluice gates at a critical hydroelectric power plant controlled by Russian forces. As a result, satellite data shows that the water level at the reservoir has plummeted to its lowest point in three decades. Separate images provided by the commercial companies Planet and Maxar show water pouring through the gates, and shoreline along the giant reservoir emerging as a result of the rapidly falling water levels.

 

At stake is drinking water for hundreds of thousands of residents, irrigation for nearly half-a-million acres of farmland, and the cooling system at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Late last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency said it was aware of the potential risk posed by dropping water levels at the reservoir.

 

"Even though the decreased water level does not pose an immediate threat to nuclear safety and security, it may become a source of concern if it is allowed to continue," the IAEA's director General Rafael M. Grossi said in a statement.

 

Click on the link for the ful article