TheGreatBuzz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 (edited) Edit: Nevermind. Edited January 26 by TheGreatBuzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PokerPacker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Penn & Teller are Seal Team 6. Got it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sisko Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, Wildbunny said: Logistics has always been the main problem in every war since the beginning of humanity and wars. I get the point of spare parts and everything, but if food is not on time on a daily basis for your soldiers, if you don't your infantry won't do ****. Logistics is was bite Napoleon during is Russian campaign, or the 3rd Reich as well. They were running short of almost everything in the end and there was no way for them to counter that. The main logistics to have is food for the infantry. Because for all your planes, boats, submarines, Himars, tanks and everything you can think of, in the end, you'll need soldiers to occupy the ground just to say "hello there!". Still, we're about to have the highest end of modern armies fighting one that is using the oldest tactics of time: mass bodies send to the fight and don't give a **** about the casualties as long as they win. As unequipped and unarmed or untrained as the russians soldiers are, they still aren't revolting or retreating in any way. That's a deadly combination to face; people that aren't moving back and are largely outnumbering you. Ukraine cannot lose this war, but that's still not a given thing that they'll win in the end. That may be true but I think with the tanks and boatloads of IFVs and longer range artillery we’re now sending them, they have a damn good chance to punch through and cut off the land bridge to Crimea. With the damage to the Kerch bridge, Crimea would pretty much be done for. I don’t think much of the rest of it matters to Putler politically if they lose Crimea. At that point, he’ll have to decide to either negotiate or escalate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Die Hard Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Canada throwing in 4 Leopard tanks… well because times are tight here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCSaints_fan Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 14 hours ago, FootballZombie said: Based off what I looked up the course we put our US soldiers thru to be an M1 Armor crew member is 22 weeks. There is a ton to learn. That’s starting from absolutely nothing. I’m wondering how much of that is topics like tactics, which experienced tankers don’t really need and probably doesn’t even apply 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Also it’s 22 weeks in a non emergent situation. Once the bombs start flying I doubt they are giving new recruits 22 weeks. So I imagine they will also give the Ukrainians an abridged training program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildbunny Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 hours ago, The Sisko said: That may be true but I think with the tanks and boatloads of IFVs and longer range artillery we’re now sending them, they have a damn good chance to punch through and cut off the land bridge to Crimea. With the damage to the Kerch bridge, Crimea would pretty much be done for. I don’t think much of the rest of it matters to Putler politically if they lose Crimea. At that point, he’ll have to decide to either negotiate or escalate. Maybe, that's really a good question to wonder about. By the "bests" reports there's been around 180K russians soldiers killed, injured or incapacited in any way in nearly a year of fight. They were 120K at first, then 300K more. Now, maybe 500K. Which would make it 920K russians send in Ukraine. 920/180 is a little bit above 5. So, at this pace, it will take another 4 years to get rid of every russians since they doesn't seem to flee much from combat. And that's with taking the best actual reports which are probably false. That's a ****load of money to spend, ammo, tanks, fighters and everything that goes with it to give to Ukraine, and a few presidents here and there to change... And that's with Putin not sending another bunch of a million guys more or two into the fight. Which would inevitably happen at any time if things aren't going his way. Objectively, our strategy doesn't look great until western countries actually turn to real war economy at all levels and starts getting Abrams, Leopards, Leclerc or whatever at a rate of 50 a day from any industry dedicated to it, and a ****ing gazillion of missiles, ammo to feed Ukrainian soldiers with. Not just looking at our stocks and counting on two hands what we can feed them with, because that's obviously not enough. 200 tanks aren't gonna scare 500K russians soldiers at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 I really just don’t understand where your opinions come from. ukraine has done a great job and 200 tanks they can effectively use and maintain should make a difference. Now - I was someone who wanted us to get more directly involved from the start because I knew we could quash the whole thing to a standoff, limit the dead and damage immensely, and that doing things this way would basically yield these results - long drawn out ordeal. Although to be fair I did originally think, in the first week or two, Russia would roll them. But it became apparent that wasn’t the case pretty quickly. so if your saying this isn’t what you’d prefer because you prefer a more effective, quicker role then I agree. but given the clear agenda/strategy of western states helping with arms and intelligence but otherwise not having direct roles to play (like enforcing a no fly zone for instance), I don’t know why you think it is or will be ineffective. It seems to me it’s clearly helping and working (despite the immense destruction and death it is causing for Ukrainians) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 47 minutes ago, Wildbunny said: Maybe, that's really a good question to wonder about. By the "bests" reports there's been around 180K russians soldiers killed, injured or incapacited in any way in nearly a year of fight. They were 120K at first, then 300K more. Now, maybe 500K. Which would make it 920K russians send in Ukraine. 920/180 is a little bit above 5. So, at this pace, it will take another 4 years to get rid of every russians since they doesn't seem to flee much from combat. And that's with taking the best actual reports which are probably false. That's a ****load of money to spend, ammo, tanks, fighters and everything that goes with it to give to Ukraine, and a few presidents here and there to change... And that's with Putin not sending another bunch of a million guys more or two into the fight. Which would inevitably happen at any time if things aren't going his way. Objectively, our strategy doesn't look great until western countries actually turn to real war economy at all levels and starts getting Abrams, Leopards, Leclerc or whatever at a rate of 50 a day from any industry dedicated to it, and a ****ing gazillion of missiles, ammo to feed Ukrainian soldiers with. Not just looking at our stocks and counting on two hands what we can feed them with, because that's obviously not enough. 200 tanks aren't gonna scare 500K russians soldiers at all. If Russia had the capability of mobilizing and deploying 500k troops why haven't they done that already? Time is on our side, not theirs. The sooner they take Ukraine the sooner they can begin to thaw relations with the west and open up energy market/trade. im surprised you think a war of attrition between Russia and the entire western world ends badly for the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgeh Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 The feeling is that about half of the Russian conscripts were thrown straight into the fight as cannon fodder to halt the Ukrainian advances, while the other half (150k) have been undergoing training. That other half are expected to turn up any time from now until around March. How good that training has been, and what state their equipment is in, is an open question. The Russians recently sent a few of their much-hyped Armata tanks to Ukraine, but reportedly they've been plagued by breakdowns and equipment failure. Poor reliability was supposed to be one of the reasons the Russian army decided to drastically reduce the number of Armatas it would buy. Considering the general state of Russian tanks, you can only imagine how bad the Armatas must have been for the Russians to label them as unreliable in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sisko Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 7 hours ago, Wildbunny said: Maybe, that's really a good question to wonder about. By the "bests" reports there's been around 180K russians soldiers killed, injured or incapacited in any way in nearly a year of fight. They were 120K at first, then 300K more. Now, maybe 500K. Which would make it 920K russians send in Ukraine. 920/180 is a little bit above 5. So, at this pace, it will take another 4 years to get rid of every russians since they doesn't seem to flee much from combat. And that's with taking the best actual reports which are probably false. That's a ****load of money to spend, ammo, tanks, fighters and everything that goes with it to give to Ukraine, and a few presidents here and there to change... And that's with Putin not sending another bunch of a million guys more or two into the fight. Which would inevitably happen at any time if things aren't going his way. Objectively, our strategy doesn't look great until western countries actually turn to real war economy at all levels and starts getting Abrams, Leopards, Leclerc or whatever at a rate of 50 a day from any industry dedicated to it, and a ****ing gazillion of missiles, ammo to feed Ukrainian soldiers with. Not just looking at our stocks and counting on two hands what we can feed them with, because that's obviously not enough. 200 tanks aren't gonna scare 500K russians soldiers at all. Again, I'm no military wonk, but I don't think that's how it works. They don't have to kill every single Russian soldier. Political/strategic gains are worth a lot more than just killing the enemy. The Russians have to defend the entirety of their front so some of those troops will be in areas that don't matter from the standpoint of what I'm talking about. So, if the UA punches through somewhere around the Zaphorizia(sp?) area and gets close enough to the coast to be able to destroy anything moving south with artillery, not only is Crimea cut off, but the troops to the north/east of it. Without supplies, before too long, it doesn't matter how many troops they have in those areas that are cut off. Same thing for Kremina. If the UA takes Kremina, there is a main road there that allows them to cut off a large area in the northeast that the Russians will essentially be forced to retreat from because of an inability to supply troops there. I think this is what happened around Kharkiv. The Ukrainians punched through and before the Russians could reorganize, get reinforcements and build new defensive positions, they'd lost hundreds of square kilometers of land. This time around, instead of Humvees and assorted Soviet era equipment, the UA will be using Bradleys, other western IFVs, and Leopards against whatever the Russians have left. Given the amount of equipment the Russians have lost over the last year, a lot of the armor the UA would be going up against now are probably older tanks pulled out of mothballs with a lot of wear and tear and little maintenance. Also, bear in mind that the troops they've been using as cannon fodder so far have mostly been poor kids from the backwaters of Russia. However, if he goes through with the next mobilization, a lot more of those guys will be from Moscow and St. Petersburg, i.e. "real" Russians whose body bags will be seen very differently back home. Along with that, if Putler loses Crimea, things could get really interesting. Aside from general unrest, I could see Kadirov deciding that Putler is finally weak enough to make his move. So, if I'm the UA, getting Crimea back would be my primary goal because it could be the linchpin to unravel everything else. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildbunny Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 10 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said: Time is on our side, not theirs. Really? Putin has been on Ukraine for more than 8 years now. Time is on his side, not ours. Our democracies will get tired of this before Putin or anyone that will succeed him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LD0506 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 hours ago, Wildbunny said: Really? Putin has been on Ukraine for more than 8 years now. Time is on his side, not ours. Our democracies will get tired of this before Putin or anyone that will succeed him. Sorry, but I disagree The entire structure of preconceptions that were popular a few years back have been upended. NATO is dying/ Germany needs oil/ the US is too distracted, yaddayaddayadda..... You are right in that the greatest threat to Ukraine is not Russia, it is the US getting bored and wandering off to jack off to some new GoT horse**** or something. There is an amazing collective sense of purpose with Ukraine that extends far beyond the US, and having the adults in charge again here is letting us be a part of it without having to hog the whole conversation. I am expecting the Russians to gather every shred of force they can muster and throw it at Ukraine in the spring, one last push to turn the tide. Now, if I am thinking this, smarter people are too and are watching, planning, readying themselves for it. There will be initial successes as the Ukes fall back into prepared positions, and the media will run around squawking about doomsday-again- but the counter will devastate the Russians. The imbalance of forces in play is staggering. The qualitative edge of Western arms vs museum piece T34/85s tech is almost beyond words. To me the big question is when this fails and Russia loses 50K KIA, what happens then in Russia? Stay tuned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sisko Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Wow. Tanks from 19 freaking 44?!?!😧 They could have just shipped them coffins with wheels instead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LD0506 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, The Sisko said: Wow. Tanks from 19 freaking 44?!?!😧 They could have just shipped them coffins with wheels instead. And in far better condition that any the Russians still have on hand 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Putin Has A Problem: His So-Called Allies Won’t Help Fight In Ukraine With Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has attempted to paint himself in a God complex. Comparing himself to Peter the Great, a well-known imperialist, he has tried to convince the non-western world that he will bring “multipolarity” back. Despite using faux pretenses to invade Ukraine, the Russian autocrat has directed much of his warring rhetoric toward Western governments the most. To bring the multipolar world in order to upend long-standing American hegemony, the Russian President has attempted to form a coalition of countries that are willing to combat the West. These ambitions have been minuscule to say the least, as the people he thought were allies have not supported his war the way he thought it would go. During the early stages of the war, Putin attempted to convince CTSO member states such as Kazakhstan and Belarus to formally send troops and join in on the invasion. As Russian media paints the war as Moscow’s coalition versus NATO, this was a call to action towards their allies to intervene. Central Asia President Tokayev of Kazakhstan, who was backed by Moscow to crush internal dissidence has become one of the Kremlin’s biggest critics thus far. Syria Despite recognizing Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the faux referendums, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad has not militarily supported Russia. Armenia Once dependent on Russia for its security due to being geographically sandwiched in between hostile nations and isolated from the west, Yerevan’s relations with Moscow hit an all-time low. India India and Russia have had a close knit relation for hundreds of years, but New Delhi has not provided military support for Ukraine, but rather has taken advantage of discounted oil. China Usurping Russia in economic progression and growing its military past Moscow’s might, Putin has relied on monetary assistance from the CCP to keep his economy afloat in the war. China has not supported Moscow militarily in the war thus far. Serbia Serbia and Russia have had a close relationship, as the Russian Empire helped Serbia gain its independence from the Ottomans, but in the 21st century, these relations are at a crossroads. Iran One of the biggest rogue regimes today, Iran has been one of the biggest supporters of military technology to Russia today, sending the Shahed drones and potentially ballistic missiles. Though this seems like support, Iran has refused to recognize Russia’s annexations and stated they will not anytime in the future. North Korea The hermit kingdom of North Korea has backed the faux proxy states of Donbas and has quietly sent shells to help Russia’s stagnant war effort. Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, the dictator of Belarus has been privy to Russian military operations throughout its invasion. Allowing the Kremlin to use his country as a launching pad, tens of thousands of RF poured into Ukraine through Belarusian borders. Despite the logistical support, Lukashenko has been wary of formally intervening. Click on the link for the full article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmirOfShmo Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgeh Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Decent summary of what might happen next: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/27/the-big-battle-is-coming-ukrainian-forces-prepare-for-the-wars-most-intense-phase The Russian armed forces declared on Sunday that they had launched a new offensive in Zaporizhzhia region, but the Ukrainian soldiers seemed unperturbed. The frontline here has not moved for 10 months, and the Russians are hunkered in their trenches, which run across the rolling hills of black-soil farmland. They are not going anywhere soon, the soldiers said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dfitzo53 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 On 1/27/2023 at 9:10 AM, The Sisko said: Wow. Tanks from 19 freaking 44?!?!😧 They could have just shipped them coffins with wheels instead. Yeah it would literally be safer just not to deploy them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, EmirOfShmo said: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Iran has graduated into the “finding out” stage. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LD0506 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Kinda like hitting Ploesti to cut off fuel for the Nazis I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Is Israel doing it because of Iran sending arms to Ukraine or is this to some other beef? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LD0506 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 32 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said: Is Israel doing it because of Iran sending arms to Ukraine or is this to some other beef? Does it matter? Asking for a friend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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