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Russian Invasion of Ukraine


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14 hours ago, MrSilverMaC said:

Ukrainian born chicks apparently are just badasses with a sniper rifle.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyudmila_Pavlichenko

 

I’ve believed for a while that women are better students when it comes to things like learning how to shoot because in general they actually take the time to learn the fundamentals and don’t just assume they know how to use a gun because they happened to be born with a dick.

 

But that’s just a personal belief.

Agreed. I think it's much easier to become skilled at something if you approach it from the standpoint of discarding what you think you know. If that knowledge is in fact true and valuable, you'll figure it out as you learn more and incorporate it, rather than starting from a perhaps flawed base. Moreover, in general, men have too much ego about some tasks and are way more lazy than women. And FWIW, I include myself in that assessment.

 

As for the Bradleys, and other western armored vehicles, Biden should have done that long ago. At this point, we should be at the stage where we're sending them western aircraft. The thinking is that Putin is going to do a general mobilization soon and bring in hundreds of thousands more soldiers. Given the success the Russians had so far with their Orc wave tactics, it's not hard to believe that they could get breakthroughs in many areas of the front if they threw that many more soldiers in. After all, even meat grinders and wood chippers can get clogged up if you try to feed too much into them at once. Ukraine needs to be able to scale up the killing to an industrial level to counter this tactic and they need to be able to do it before the next mobilization happens, not as a reaction to it after the fact. If the casualties start mounting on that level, someone is going to depose Putin one way or another and even if they're worse than he is, other than nukes, they won't have much military capability to do damage outside of Russia for perhaps decades.

Edited by The Sisko
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So much for the Russian ceasefire, as if anyone believed it anyway:

 

Russia-Ukraine war: Moscow’s ceasefire ends with no let up in fighting; Ukraine strikes power plants in Donetsk, officials say – live

 

One person was killed as a result of the attack on the Starobesheve power plant in Novyi Svit, Russia’s state Tass news agency said on Sunday.

 

The thermal power plant was one of two in part of Ukraine’s Donetsk region that is controlled by Russian forces that were damaged in a rocket attack by the Ukrainian army, Moscow-installed officials said.

 

Initial information suggested that the plants in Zuhres and Novyi Svit had been hit and that some people working there had sustained injuries, the officials said on their Telegram channels, Reuters reports.

 

A report from the Tass news agency said:

 

The body of one dead woman was extracted from under the rubble at the plant.

 

Tass had earlier said the strike was carried out using a multiple rocket launcher system.

 

There was no immediate comment from Ukraine, which never publicly claims responsibility for attacks inside Russia or on Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine.

 

-----------

 

There has been growing concerns that Belarus – a staunch backer of Moscow – could be used as a staging post to attack Ukraine from the north after increasing military activity in the country and fresh transfer of Russian troops there, Reuters reports.

 

Unofficial Telegram channels monitoring military activity in Belarus reported late on Saturday that some 1,400-1,600 Russian troops arrived from Russia into the north-eastern city of Vitebsk in Belarus over the past two days. Reuters was not able to independently verify the information.

 

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday that Russia is planning a major new offensive. The Pentagon said on Friday that Vladimir Putin’s aim of seizing Ukrainian territory has not changed, even if his military continues to suffer blows.

 

Click on the link for the full article

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It would be glorious if somehow Ukraine could sink this as well:

 

‘Like a fireball’: Vladimir Putin unveils new plan to scare the world

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin is hoping one of his new “wonder weapons” will help restore his tarnished tough-man image by ordering a warship to parade it around the world.

He farewelled the frigate Admiral Gorshkov on Thursday as it departed for the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. It’s carrying Zircon hypersonic missiles – weapons capable of flying at about nine times the speed of sound (11,000km/h) to strike targets up to 1000km away.

 

It represents an attempt by Mr Putin to up the ante against the West as his fortunes continue to flag in Ukraine.

 

“I am sure that such powerful weapons will reliably protect Russia from potential external threats and will help ensure the national interests of our country,” the 70-year-old leader said in a video conference, alongside the frigate’s commander and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.

 

“This ship, armed with Zircons, is capable of delivering pinpoint and powerful strikes against the enemy at sea and on land,” Mr Shoigu said, adding that Admiral Gorshkov’s mission was to “solve problems” and maintain “regional peace and stability jointly with friendly countries”.

 

The deployment comes as Mr Putin’s navy struggles to remain relevant in the Black Sea amid the invasion of Ukraine.

 

The old guided missile cruiser Moskva was sunk in April last year. And raids by Ukrainian speedboat drones have sent its other warships seeking safer waters.

 

But Mr Putin hopes the sleek, modern lines of the Admiral Gorhkov – commissioned in 2018 after a protracted trial period – will help restore a measure of respect.

 

During the live hook-up, the Russian President pronounced the Zircon a “unique weapon” without “equivalent in any country in the world”.

 

But pro-Putin military commentator Sergei Markov took the news of the deployment one step further.

 

“This is a message to the West that Russia has nuclear-tipped missiles that can easily pierce any missile defences,” he stated online.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

How many of these Zircons can they deploy before they run out of the computer hardware and money needed to be able to replace them?

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1 hour ago, China said:

It would be glorious if somehow Ukraine could sink this as well:

 

‘Like a fireball’: Vladimir Putin unveils new plan to scare the world

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin is hoping one of his new “wonder weapons” will help restore his tarnished tough-man image by ordering a warship to parade it around the world.

He farewelled the frigate Admiral Gorshkov on Thursday as it departed for the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. It’s carrying Zircon hypersonic missiles – weapons capable of flying at about nine times the speed of sound (11,000km/h) to strike targets up to 1000km away.

 

It represents an attempt by Mr Putin to up the ante against the West as his fortunes continue to flag in Ukraine.

 

“I am sure that such powerful weapons will reliably protect Russia from potential external threats and will help ensure the national interests of our country,” the 70-year-old leader said in a video conference, alongside the frigate’s commander and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.

 

“This ship, armed with Zircons, is capable of delivering pinpoint and powerful strikes against the enemy at sea and on land,” Mr Shoigu said, adding that Admiral Gorshkov’s mission was to “solve problems” and maintain “regional peace and stability jointly with friendly countries”.

 

The deployment comes as Mr Putin’s navy struggles to remain relevant in the Black Sea amid the invasion of Ukraine.

 

The old guided missile cruiser Moskva was sunk in April last year. And raids by Ukrainian speedboat drones have sent its other warships seeking safer waters.

 

But Mr Putin hopes the sleek, modern lines of the Admiral Gorhkov – commissioned in 2018 after a protracted trial period – will help restore a measure of respect.

 

During the live hook-up, the Russian President pronounced the Zircon a “unique weapon” without “equivalent in any country in the world”.

 

But pro-Putin military commentator Sergei Markov took the news of the deployment one step further.

 

“This is a message to the West that Russia has nuclear-tipped missiles that can easily pierce any missile defences,” he stated online.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

How many of these Zircons can they deploy before they run out of the computer hardware and money needed to be able to replace them?

 

Fun fact: zircon crystals frequently have radioactive material (uranium and thorium) within them and their structure gets damaged over time as radioactive decay happens.

 

TLDR: Russia sucks at naming things.

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Gotta love how Russia constantly remodels 1970s equipment with a few worthless bells and whistles and proclaims it as the greatest thing ever with no western equivalent...

Russia is an analog military in a digital age - literally. Back when the Moskva sunk there was a great video on YouTube comparing the missile detection screen on Russia's now destroyed flagship - which looked like the green screen with a sweeping needle and blips of light you would see in old movies, with all the computer analysis and graphics of a US aircraft carrier.

From what I understand, nuclear weapons rely on tritium to detonate, and that tritium has a 12 year half life and therefore must be replaced/replenished about every 20-30 years. I would bet nearly if not all of Russia's nukes are Soviet leftovers, and do you really think an army that put cheap Chinese tires on its personnel vehicles and failed to even rotate vehicles in storage has been keeping up with the expensive and high tech upkeep of tritium?

Which brings up the quandary...what if Moscow does launch a nuke, but it doesn't work...how should we respond?

 

https://youtu.be/oCOA1aDXU4w

 

Edited by Riggo-toni
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If you can believe The Sun, Russia's only aircraft carrier isn't going anywhere anytime soon, unless it's to the bottom of the ocean:

 

Russia’s only aircraft carrier will SINK if it sails again in blow for Putin after mystery explosion, spies reveal Tariq Tahir

 

RUSSIA’S only aircraft carrier will sink if it sails again after being hit by a mystery explosion, Ukrainian intelligence has claimed.

 

Vladimir Putin’s rust bucket the Admiral Kuznetsov has a troubled history with the nearly 40-year-old ship hit by several fires and fatal accidents.

 

The flag ship of the Russian navy burst into flames while being renovated in the port of Murmansk at the end of last year.

 

The blaze was latest mysterious fire to break out in Russia in recent months, which have even been blamed on the CIA and NATO ally spies.

 

The vessel is currently in a dry dock but the Russians want to float it to another part of the shipyard to continue repairs after the fire, Ukrainian military intelligence has claimed.

 

But the condition of the Admiral Kuznetsov “does not allow it to be launched” and if it puts to sea “it is highly likely that it will tip over on its side and sink”, say the Ukrainians.

 

The ship is "completely filled with muddy water" meaning it "impossible to examine the ship from inside, claim Kyiv's spies.

 

Humiliatingly for Putin there is "not even an approximate time frame" for when his navy's flag ship could return to service.

 

Click on the link for the full story

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1 minute ago, Riggo-toni said:

I would bet nearly if not all of Russia's nukes are Soviet leftovers, and do you really think an army that put cheap Chinese tires on its personnel vehicles and failed to even rotate vehicles in storage has been keeping up with the expensive and high tech upkeep of tritium?

 

I would make that bet too if the stakes weren't hundreds of millions of lives if you are wrong.  Unfortunately, those are the stakes.  

 

1 minute ago, Riggo-toni said:

Which brings up the quandary...what if Moscow does launch a nuke, but it doesn't work...how should we respond?

 

This is a fantastic question.  2 potential responses that I can think of. 

 

One is, do nothing.  If they just launch one nuke, and it doesn't work, you still have to assume that some % of their nukes do work, so you don't want to then launch what would effectively be a first strike, kill millions of people, and then have Russia retaliate with their whole arsenal even if only 10% of them work.

 

Two, you think, well, they launched a nuke (or nukes) with the intention that they'd work, and so you must presume that they'll launch more until one (or more) does work, in which case you do whatever you need to do to eliminate their ability to launch more, which likely means annihilating most of Russia's military installations and population centers. 

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1 hour ago, Riggo-toni said:

From what I understand, nuclear weapons rely on tritium to detonate, and that tritium has a 12 year half life and therefore must be replaced/replenished about every 20-30 years. I would bet nearly if not all of Russia's nukes are Soviet leftovers, and do you really think an army that put cheap Chinese tires on its personnel vehicles and failed to even rotate vehicles in storage has been keeping up with the expensive and high tech upkeep of tritium?

The best part about Russians nuclear missiles is that it was the Ukrainians that used to maintain them because they don't really know how to do it...

Edited by Wildbunny
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On 1/6/2023 at 9:56 PM, MrSilverMaC said:

I’ve believed for a while that women are better students when it comes to things like learning how to shoot because in general they actually take the time to learn the fundamentals and don’t just assume they know how to use a gun because they happened to be born with a dick.

 

But that’s just a personal belief.


they’re better at most things that don’t require sheer strength 

 

golf is a microcosm of the issue

(not comparing pros - comparing people learning golf women tend to do better)

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1 hour ago, Riggo-toni said:

Gotta love how Russia constantly remodels 1970s equipment with a few worthless bells and whistles and proclaims it as the greatest thing ever with no western equivalent...

 

well, what is the western equivalent of an aging rust bucket with rockets tapped on to the front?

 

 

1 hour ago, Riggo-toni said:

Which brings up the quandary...what if Moscow does launch a nuke, but it doesn't work...how should we respond?

 

https://youtu.be/oCOA1aDXU4w

 

the same way as if it worked, I mean unless it blows up on their soil. A failed nuclear weapon would still be a dirty bomb….

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1 hour ago, Pwyl said:

I'm not an expert but I think the response to a first strike from Russia happens while the missile is still in the air.  


Obviously not an expert, either. (If I was an expert, I couldn't make this post.)

 

But that's not the way I'd bet. 
 

My bet would be, if NORAD says they have one missile inbound, the decision is "it might be a false alarm, let's wait". 
 

At least, I would hope that's the case. 

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19 hours ago, China said:

If you can believe The Sun, Russia's only aircraft carrier isn't going anywhere anytime soon, unless it's to the bottom of the ocean:

 

Russia’s only aircraft carrier will SINK if it sails again in blow for Putin after mystery explosion, spies reveal Tariq Tahir

 

RUSSIA’S only aircraft carrier will sink if it sails again after being hit by a mystery explosion, Ukrainian intelligence has claimed.

 

Vladimir Putin’s rust bucket the Admiral Kuznetsov has a troubled history with the nearly 40-year-old ship hit by several fires and fatal accidents.

 

The flag ship of the Russian navy burst into flames while being renovated in the port of Murmansk at the end of last year.

 

The blaze was latest mysterious fire to break out in Russia in recent months, which have even been blamed on the CIA and NATO ally spies.

 

The vessel is currently in a dry dock but the Russians want to float it to another part of the shipyard to continue repairs after the fire, Ukrainian military intelligence has claimed.

 

But the condition of the Admiral Kuznetsov “does not allow it to be launched” and if it puts to sea “it is highly likely that it will tip over on its side and sink”, say the Ukrainians.

 

The ship is "completely filled with muddy water" meaning it "impossible to examine the ship from inside, claim Kyiv's spies.

 

Humiliatingly for Putin there is "not even an approximate time frame" for when his navy's flag ship could return to service.

 

Click on the link for the full story

 

So desperate they want to buy back an old mothballed aircraft carrier from China:

 

Russia Wants To Buy Back Its Old Aircraft Carrier From China

 

Russia Reportedly Wants its Cold War Aircraft Carrier Back from China – Even though there is no overt ideological alignment, Beijing and Moscow currently enjoy the best relations since the late 1950s. While China and Russia have no formal alliance, the two countries do have an informal agreement to coordinate diplomatic and economic movies. Yet, as the two authoritarian nations are strengthening political, economic, and military ties, the relationship has become more imbalanced in China’s favor.

 

Moscow has also become more beholden to Beijing than it was prior to its invasion of Ukraine – and there have even been calls this month that Russia should try to buy back the Soviet aircraft carrier sold by Ukraine to China following the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

 

Launched in November 1988, the unfinished Kuznetsov-class aircraft carrier Varyag was transferred to Ukraine in 1992 – but Kyiv was unable to complete the vessel, and sold it to China, where it was termed as a pile of scrap metal. 

 

The official Chinese plan was to convert it into a floating casino.

 

Instead, Beijing eventually refurbished the vessel as the Shi Lan before it was renamed Liaoning, after its northeastern province. Completed in 2012, the Type 001 allowed the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to begin its first carrier program, leading to the development of the domestically built Type 002 Shandong while last year, China launched a third and even larger carrier, the Type 003 Fujian.

 

Last week, Sergey Karginov, the first deputy chairman of the Committee of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation on Development of Far East and Arctic, proposed that Moscow should seek to buy back the carrier for service in the Black Sea.

 

“After the collapse of the country, Ukraine preferred to sell it in fact for a few bottles of vodka, at the price of scrap metal. Given the current situation, I propose to buy the ship from China, give it the name of the founder of the Liberal Democratic Party Vladimir Zhirinovsky and make it the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet,” Karginov, a member of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), told Russian state media on Friday.

 

Click on the link for the full article

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Soledar of ‘huge strategic importance’: AJ correspondent

 

Al Jazeera’s Charles Stratford, reporting from Kyiv, says Soledar, the eastern Ukrainian town where battles are raging, is of “huge strategic importance” given its location and sprawling underground tunnels.

 

“Soledar is a salt-mining town … and it has a vast network of underground tunnels, around 200km [125 miles] of tunnels, in fact, some of which are as high as 30 metres [100 feet],” Stratford said.

 

“The Russians are saying that the Ukrainians are using those tunnels as defensive positions and to store ammunition.

 

“We can only speculate that the fighting there [in Soledar] is particularly intense because it is of such strategic and military importance, but whether we are going to start seeing such a thing as the siege we saw around the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol many months ago remains to be seen.”

 

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Russian artillery fire down nearly 75%, US officials say, in latest sign of struggles for Moscow

 

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its 11th month, US and Ukrainian officials tell CNN that Russia’s artillery fire is down dramatically from its wartime high, in some places by as much as 75%.

 

US and Ukrainian officials don’t yet have a clear or singular explanation. Russia may be rationing artillery rounds due to low supplies, or it could be part of a broader reassessment of tactics in the face of successful Ukrainian offenses.

 

Either way, the striking decline in artillery fire is further evidence of Russia’s increasingly weak position on the battlefield nearly a year into its invasion, US and Ukrainian officials told CNN. It also comes as Ukraine is enjoying increased military support from its western allies, with the US and Germany announcing last week that they will be providing Ukrainian forces for the first time with armored fighting vehicles, as well as another Patriot Defense missile battery that will help protect its skies.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, is apparently clambering to shore up domestic political support, US intelligence officials believe, for a war he initially would only describe as a limited “special military operation.”

 

US officials believe the 36-hour ceasefire Putin ordered in Ukraine last week to allow for the observance of Orthodox Christmas was an attempt to pander to Russia’s extensive Christian population, two people familiar with the intelligence told CNN, as well as an opportunity for Putin to blame Ukrainians for breaking it and paint them as heretical heathens.

 

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7 hours ago, China said:

Soledar of ‘huge strategic importance’: AJ correspondent

 

Al Jazeera’s Charles Stratford, reporting from Kyiv, says Soledar, the eastern Ukrainian town where battles are raging, is of “huge strategic importance” given its location and sprawling underground tunnels.

 

“Soledar is a salt-mining town … and it has a vast network of underground tunnels, around 200km [125 miles] of tunnels, in fact, some of which are as high as 30 metres [100 feet],” Stratford said.

 

“The Russians are saying that the Ukrainians are using those tunnels as defensive positions and to store ammunition.

 

“We can only speculate that the fighting there [in Soledar] is particularly intense because it is of such strategic and military importance, but whether we are going to start seeing such a thing as the siege we saw around the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol many months ago remains to be seen.”

 

Click on the link for more

 

Looks like they might have taken it. It's questionable whether it's of "huge strategic importance" though; it makes the defence of Bakhmut harder for sure, but not impossible. It's more likely the standard Wagner group strategy of seizing natural resources wherever they are deployed, just as they've taken control of mines and oil fields in Africa.

 

Head of Russia’s Wagner group says his troops have taken control of Soledar | Ukraine | The Guardian

 

The head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group has claimed his forces have completed the takeover of the Ukrainian town of Soledar, which if confirmed would mark Moscow’s first major battlefield success since last summer... 

 

Prigozhin said on Tuesday Ukrainian troops were surrounded in the centre of the town and “there are street battles ongoing. The number of prisoners taken will be announced tomorrow.” ...there was no confirmation forthcoming from Ukrainian officials of Prigozhin’s claims, but there had been suggestions in Kyiv and western capitals over recent days that the fall of Soledar was imminent.

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Vladimir Putin’s budget faces ‘catastrophe’ after Western price cap spells doom for Russian oil exports

 

The West's price cap on Russian crude oil could have a catastrophic effect on Vladimir Putin’s finances and force the pariah state into imposing austerity measures this year.

 

The price of the “Urals” benchmark grade of crude oil exported from Russia has been falling steadily since the cap went into effect on Dec. 5. At that level, production can continue, but at a level much closer to extraction costs, thereby greatly diminishing Russian profits.

 

“The price on Urals crude is down sharply versus Brent since the start of the G7 cap,” wrote Robin Brooks, chief economist of the international finance industry lobby group IIF. “That’s good, as Putin gets less cash to fight his war.”

 

Last year, the average price for Russia’s “Urals” benchmark grade was $76.09 per barrel, the country's finance ministry said last week.

 

The price plummeted in December, however. In the first month of the cap, it fell to an average of just $50.47 per barrel, down nearly a third from the comparable period a year earlier.

 

Worse for Moscow, Urals crude recently traded at $38—below the $40 threshold that many believe to be Russia’s production cost.

 

“The Ministry of Finance confirmed that everything with regard to Urals prices is not just bad, but very bad,” Cetrocredit Bank economist Yevgeny Suvorov told the Moscow Times. “$40 per barrel can be a real catastrophe for the budget and economy... If it becomes clear that $45–$50 is a new normal, the finance ministry will have to switch to an austerity regime this year.”

 

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Armenia refuses to host CSTO exercises

 

Armenia will not host Russia-led military exercises this year, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said today, directly contradicting an announcement from Moscow a week earlier. Pashinyan at the same time launched an extraordinary criticism of the Russian military presence in Armenia, saying that it was more of a “threat” than a protection to his country.

 

On January 1, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russia-led alliance, would be holding the 2023 iteration of its annual flagship exercises, Unbreakable Brotherhood, in Armenia.

 

That announcement came as a bit of a surprise given the rocky relationship of late between Armenia and Moscow, and in particular the CSTO. Many Armenians have found Russia’s and the CSTO’s actions wanting in the face of Azerbaijani offensives in recent months, including an unprecedented attack on Armenia in September and an ongoing de facto blockade of the Armenian protectorate of Nagorno-Karabakh that started in September.

 

At a January 10 press conference, Pashinyan addressed the issue, and labeled the Russian plans a “misunderstanding.”

 

“I think there is a misunderstanding, since the Ministry of Defense of Armenia has already informed, in writing, the joint staff of the CSTO that conducting exercises in Armenia in the current situation would be inappropriate,” he said. “These exercises in Armenia, at least this year, will not happen.”

 

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First on CNN: Ukrainians to start training on Patriot missiles in US as soon as next week

 

Ukrainian troops are set to begin training on the Patriot missile system in the United States as soon as next week, the Pentagon announced on Tuesday.

 

The training program will take place at Fort Sill in Oklahoma, where the US conducts its own training on operating and maintaining the advanced air defense system. Fort Sill is one of the Army’s four basic training locations and home to the service’s field artillery school, which has been training service members for more than a century.

 

CNN first reported the news earlier on Tuesday, with two US officials familiar with the matter saying the decision had been made to begin training in the US.

 

During the war the US has trained Ukrainian troops in Europe, but the decision to conduct patriot training on American soil could increase tensions with Moscow further as Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has constantly warned western nations against further involvement in the war.

 

The training process and eventual deployment of the defensive weapons system, which had long been requested by Kyiv, will take months and won’t impact the course of the war in the short-term though once it’s completed it should provide better protection against Russian missile attacks that have devastated the country’s infrastructure.

 

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