The Official QB Thread- No Howell, No Way. Howell traded to the Seahawks. MarioTa vs Frommm battle for QB1

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

We got people here seriously comparing Heinicke to Josh Allen? 

 

Yeah, I'm out. If I stay active in this thread I'm gonna get myself banned for sure LOL.

But, but, but he’s not doing that, but he actually is doing that.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

20 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

So why does it hold water that it's Heinicke despite Wentz' superior passing numbers?

 

 

320 yards more in the same amount of games. 3 more touchdowns. 

 

How do you think, in your words, the offense is averaging ten more yards per game "with Heinicke"?

 

I just don't understand.

This would make sense if I wanted Wentz to be our quarterback.

 

 

 

As someone just mentioned, drives are sustained at a better rate with Heinicke behind center, and that's probably because he knows the offense better, Turner's playcalling is different with Heinicke behind center, more reliant on the run game...I also think I remember someone pointing out that Heinicke was better on 3rd down than Wentz but I can't say for sure.

[FLSkinz83]

Holy smokes....Let me try this again....

 

@KDawg - If I'm one of TH's biggest supporters, then he doesn't have much support.    I respect him.  I don't think he stinks.  I think you can win games with him.  That's it.

 

I've said plenty of times that Wentz is better all things being equal and that I like Howell more going forward.

 

I brought up Allen and TH in the same sentence as it relates to "turnover worthy throws" to mock the over analyzing and overblown nature of every TH throw that is in the vicinity of a defender.    I don't think Bills fans spend hours going crazy over every "T.O. worthy" throw.  That's because the narrative is that Josh Allen is a great QB....and he is.

 

In regards to TH, the narrative from the vast majority of folks is that he stinks, so there is a need to feed that narrative...I don't support this narrative.

 

A prime example is one I've mentioned a few time since the Falcons game....It's the near INT in the 3rd quarter.....

 

3rd and 15 from midfield....not 1st and 10...not 2nd and 10....not 3rd and 15 from deep in our own territory.    3rd and 15 from midfield....

 

TH throw an out route to Terry...it's slightly behind him....Terry and the DB get their hands on it.    DB makes a good play.   If he intercepted that pass, no big deal, IMO.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 2, 2022 by FLSkinz83

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

As someone just mentioned, drives are sustained at a better rate with Heinicke behind center, and that's probably because he knows the offense better, Turner's playcalling is different with Heinicke behind center, more reliant on the run game...I also think I remember someone pointing out that Heinicke was better on 3rd down than Wentz but I can't say for sure.

 

I think these are absolutely reasons that the offense can be ten yards better with Heinicke. His ability to maneuver the pocket can absolutely be a reason for that as well. 

 

I also think Robinson getting to form, Robinson being back at all and using Gibson more dynamically, not throwing the ball, improvement in the OL can be reasons.

 

I also think the difference in the defense can be credited for ending opposing drives faster as well, thus assisting in TOP.

 

Point is, you can't point to a single factor. My point with saying, "you can also word it as the offense with Robinson averages ten yards more per game" wasn't to actually give him credit. But you can word it in many different ways. I think attributing it to just Heinicke is strange, but that's NOT to say that he doesn't play a role in it. And, it's tough to say a generalization other than "Hey, the offense is 10 yards better per game with Heinicke than with Wentz". So that isn't lost on me.

 

But Heinicke gets a lot of credit for things he doesn't deserve it for. And, quite frankly, he gets more flack than he deserves credit for as well. 

2 minutes ago, FLSkinz83 said:

Holy smokes....Let me try this again....

 

@KDawg - If I'm one of TH's biggest supporters, then he doesn't have much support.    I respect him.  I don't think he stinks.  I think you can win games with him.  That's it.

 

I've said plenty of times that Wentz is better all things being equal and that I like Howell more going forward.

 

I brought up Allen and TH in the same sentence as it relates to "turnover worthy throws" to mock the over analyzing and overblown nature of every TH throw that is in the vicinity of a defender.    I don't think Bills fans spend hours going crazy over every "T.O. worthy" throw.  That's because the narrative is that Josh Allen is a great QB....and he is.

 

In regards to TH, the narrative from the vast majority of folks is that he stinks, so there is a need to feed that narrative...I don't support this narrative.

 

A prime example is one I've mentioned a few time since the Falcons game....It's the near INT in the 3rd quarter.....

 

3rd and 15 from midfield....not 1st and 10...not 2nd and 10....not 3rd and 15 from deep in our own territory.    3rd and 15 from midfield....

 

TH throw an out route to Terry...it's slightly behind him....Terry and the DB get their hands on it.    DB makes a good play.   If he intercepted that pass, no big deal, IMO.

 

 

 

 

 

 

That wasn't an out route. It was a comeback. A comeback requires timing. It was a bad ball because he waited too long to throw it and he forced it into a blanketed McLaurin. 

 

Intercepting that pass is a big deal. That doesn't mean it's the end of the world or not salvageable. But it flips Uncle Mo.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

 

1 hour ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

As someone just mentioned, drives are sustained at a better rate with Heinicke behind center, and that's probably because he knows the offense better, Turner's playcalling is different with Heinicke behind center, more reliant on the run game...I also think I remember someone pointing out that Heinicke was better on 3rd down than Wentz but I can't say for sure.

It’s not even close, I posted this on the last page:

2022 3rd down stats

 

36/59  61%   373    4 TDs    2 picks    9 sacks

 

28/52  53%   298    1 TD      2 picks    6 sacks

 

The current narrative would lead folks to believe that the 53% and 6 sack guy is Wentz, but it’s not - That’s Heinicke.

 

And he’s the one spending most of his time handing the ball off creating manageable 3rd downs.

 

The more I dig in, the more I’m convinced that it’s not even close that Wentz would be the optimal play rather than Heinicke with a similar run the snot out of the ball strategy.  Wentz isn’t taking anywhere near as many sacks on1st and 2nd down if he’s giving the rock To Robinson instead, and he’s clearly the better 3rd down passer with more upside to make a big play.

 

That said, I’m not wavering on my opinion that Ron can’t bench Heinicke now.  He knows better than I do how that would look to the locker room, even after one loss with similar output from the QB.  I’ll trust that decision to him.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 2, 2022 by BatteredFanSyndrome

[Califan007 The Constipated]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I think these are absolutely reasons that the offense can be ten yards better with Heinicke. His ability to maneuver the pocket can absolutely be a reason for that as well. 

 

I also think Robinson getting to form, Robinson being back at all and using Gibson more dynamically, not throwing the ball, improvement in the OL can be reasons.

 

I also think the difference in the defense can be credited for ending opposing drives faster as well, thus assisting in TOP.

 

 

I hadn't thought about the part in bold...hadn't thought about Gibson's part at all in any of this, to be honest lol...they started using him differently once Robinson showed he could carry his share of the load if I'm not mistaken.

[KDawg]

Just now, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

I hadn't thought about the part in bold...hadn't thought about Gibson's part at all in any of this, to be honest lol...they started using him differently once Robinson showed he could carry his share of the load if I'm not mistaken.

 

Exactly.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

4 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

 

It’s not even close, I posted this on the last page:

2022 3rd down stats

 

36/59  61%   373    4 TDs    2 picks    0 sacks

 

28/52  53%   298    1 TD      2 picks    6 sacks

 

The current narrative would lead folks to believe that the 53% and 6 sack guy is Wentz, but it’s not - That’s Heinicke.

 

 

I was thinking more about converting 3rd downs than TDs...and unfortunately we know all too well that a 3rd down completion doesn't automatically equate to a 1st down.

 

Do you have the stats for 3rd down conversion rates? I guess I could look it up but it's just too windy outside lol...

[FLSkinz83]

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

That wasn't an out route. It was a comeback. A comeback requires timing. It was a bad ball because he waited too long to throw it and he forced it into a blanketed McLaurin. 

 

Intercepting that pass is a big deal. That doesn't mean it's the end of the world or not salvageable. But it flips Uncle Mo.

 

Nobody is talking about that throw if a perceived good QB made it.   It's just an Incomplete on a 3rd and 15.    

[KDawg]

Just now, FLSkinz83 said:

 

Nobody is talking about that throw if a perceived good QB made it.   It's just an Incomplete on a 3rd and 15.    

No one is talking about that throw if a good QB made it because they are a good QB. You’re right. There’s a reason Heinicke’s bad throws are talked about. They are back breakers.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

2 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

I was thinking more about converting 3rd downs than TDs...and unfortunately we know all too well that a 3rd down completion doesn't automatically equate to a 1st down.

 

Do you have the stats for 3rd down conversion rates? I guess I could look it up but it's just too windy outside lol...

I’m not sure where you can find that by QB.  3rd down conversion rates can be found, but I can’t find it where it separates how the third down was converted.

 

However, I don’t recall much of a narrative around Wentz taking meaningless checkdowns on third down.  In fact, a valid criticism is he tends to miss the gimmes.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

2 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I’m not sure where you can find that by QB.  3rd down conversion rates can be found, but I can’t find it where it separates how the third down was converted.

 

However, I don’t recall much of a narrative around Wentz taking meaningless checkdowns on third down.  In fact, a valid criticism is he tends to miss the gimmes.

 

In other words, I gotta go look it up lol...dammit!

 

I think I'll just stick with what you said because it makes complete sense (especially about Wentz missing the "gimme" throws) and is much less time consuming. 👍 Plus, I thought I had heard/read that the 3rd down conversion stat was broken down even further into like 3rd down and between 6-9 yards, 3rd and 10+ yards, etc...ain't nobody got time for that.

[FLSkinz83]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

No one is talking about that throw if a good QB made it because they are a good QB. You’re right. There’s a reason Heinicke’s bad throws are talked about. They are back breakers.

 

You really contradicted yourself there.

 

That INT would not have been a back breaker.  And it's not like he threw it right to the DB.  it was a contested throw.

 

 

Edited December 2, 2022 by FLSkinz83

[Califan007 The Constipated]

12 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Exactly.

 

OK, so this would actually play into what you said about Robinson's insertion into the lineup effecting the extra 10 yards per game, just in a more indirect way than I was initially thinking...

[DJHJR86]

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WentCa00.htm#all_passing_detailed

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HeinTa00.htm#all_passing_detailed

 

Look at the adjusted passing numbers for Wentz and Heinicke.  100 is considered average in all categories.  Neither one of them are above average in any category except for Heinicke in 1: Sack%+.  That is the clear difference between the two, and that helps contribute to drives not being killed or stalled out.  Another stat that points to this is the percentage pressured per dropback.  Wentz was at 23.3%.  Heinicke is at 25.7%.  So Heinicke is getting pressured slightly more than Wentz, but isn't taking nearly the amount of sacks he did.  This is probably the main reason why I would stick with Heinicke until eliminated from contention.  Then it's Howell time (hopefully).

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

2 minutes ago, FLSkinz83 said:

 

You really contradicted yourself there.

 

That INT would not have been a back breaker.  And it's not like he threw it right to the DB.  it was a contested throw.

 

 

There’s a distinct difference between a 3rd down heave 50 yards down the field that gets picked and acts as a punt, as opposed to missing a comeback on 3rd and 15.  They aren’t the same at all.  And the overarching point that should be obvious to everyone regarding turnover worthy throws is that Heinicke has a catalog of them, ranking at the top, if not the top.  The statistical measure of it only solidifies what those of us watching the games already know. 

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, FLSkinz83 said:

 

You really contradicted yourself there.

 

That INT would not have been a back breaker.  And it's not like he threw it right to the DB.  it was a contested throw.

 

 

You're really not following.

 

I'm not contradicting anything. That throw, in and of itself, is not the end of the world. That throw can result in a shift in momentum. Heinicke's body of work, in general, leads throws like that to be questioned, though, because he doesn't have a great arm and trusts his arm more than he should.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 minute ago, DJHJR86 said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WentCa00.htm#all_passing_detailed

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HeinTa00.htm#all_passing_detailed

 

Look at the adjusted passing numbers for Wentz and Heinicke.  100 is considered average in all categories.  Neither one of them are above average in any category except for Heinicke in 1: Sack%+.  That is the clear difference between the two, and that helps contribute to drives not being killed or stalled out.  Another stat that points to this is the percentage pressured per dropback.  Wentz was at 23.3%.  Heinicke is at 25.7%.  So Heinicke is getting pressured slightly more than Wentz, but isn't taking nearly the amount of sacks he did.  This is probably the main reason why I would stick with Heinicke until eliminated from contention.  Then it's Howell time (hopefully).

Yes, Heinicke is clearly better at moving around the pocket in general, there’s no argument there. 
 

Yes, neither QB is anything to write home about.

 

But the third down passing stats show a stark difference in passers, and the one with the worst stats is the one with luxury of running the ball and having more manageable third downs.  In fact, it’s third down where Heinicke takes the bulk of his sacks.  Which makes sense because first and second down are generally spent handing the ball off.

[FLSkinz83]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

You're really not following.

 

I'm not contradicting anything. That throw, in and of itself, is not the end of the world. That throw can result in a shift in momentum. Heinicke's body of work, in general, leads throws like that to be questioned, though, because he doesn't have a great arm and trusts his arm more than he should.

 

I'm following you very well.   You're only talking about that throw because you think TH is subpar.     I have no issue with discussing his truly bad throws, like the INT or the missed TD throw to Terry, but let's not pile on in order to make a point.

[Ball Security]

14 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

 

I also think the difference in the defense can be credited for ending opposing drives faster as well, thus assisting in TOP.

 

 

 

 

Here was the defense in the Detroit game:

Lions have the ball to start.  Give it back 1:15 minutes later.  Come back on the field 2:03 minutes later.  Have a 3:22 minute FG drive.  Then get the ball back 1:28 minutes later. 1:15 minutes later the defense turns the Lions over on downs.  Lions get a safety 45 seconds later.  Then score a TD on a 1:31 drive. Another three and out for Washington that takes a 1:25.  Detroit kicks a FG after 1:10 minutes.

 

It’s now 15-0. Second quarter, still time to come back. But they give the ball right back 1:29 later.

 

The defense was getting off the field that game.  But always had to go back on because the offense couldn’t get a first down.  I can’t blame Nick Martin for this one.

[KDawg]

Just now, FLSkinz83 said:

 

I'm following you very well.   You're only talking about that throw because you think TH is subpar.     I have no issue with discussing his truly bad throws, like the INT or the missed TD throw to Terry, but let's not pile on in order to make a point.

 

That IS the point. A good QB makes so many great plays the bad ones are forgiven. Heinicke is NOT a great player. So his mistakes stand out.

 

That is the ENTIRE point. 

 

It's not piling on. It's what/who he is as a QB.

 

That doesn't mean he doesn't have strengths. He does. I've laid them out many times here and in other threads. But he is a handcuff. It just so happens that the handcuff has moxie and our OC changed gameplans and it has tremendously benefited this team. And yes, Heinicke may be limited but he does deserve some credit for the run this team is on. 

[Skinsfan1311]

2 hours ago, LD0506 said:

Just as an aside, it's become part of my morning coffee-fueled routine to catch up with this thread where a flock of football-philosophers debate Schrödinger's Quarterback ad infinitum

 

Round and round it goes

Deleted.  

Edited December 2, 2022 by Skinsfan1311
Broached rules for this thread...better safe than sorry!

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Ball Security said:

Here was the defense in the Detroit game:

Lions have the ball to start.  Give it back 1:15 minutes later.  Come back on the field 2:03 minutes later.  Have a 3:22 minute FG drive.  Then get the ball back 1:28 minutes later. 1:15 minutes later the defense turns the Lions over on downs.  Lions get a safety 45 seconds later.  Then score a TD on a 1:31 drive. Another three and out for Washington that takes a 1:25.  Detroit kicks a FG after 1:10 minutes.

 

It’s now 15-0. Second quarter, still time to come back. But they give the ball right back 1:29 later.

 

The defense was getting off the field that game.  But always had to go back on because the offense couldn’t get a first down.  I can’t blame Nick Martin for this one.

 

I'm confused. What's the point here? That our defense played okay and Wentz and the OL and our gameplan wet the bed? Agreed.

 

I have no qualms about who and what Wentz was and did for us when he played. Correlation to me thinking Heinicke isn't the answer does not equate to me believing Wentz is the answer.

[Skinsinparadise]

I couldn't find Heinicke alone on third down, but this is overall

[Califan007 The Constipated]

25 minutes ago, Skinsfan1311 said:

Same here.

(he edited it so I will, too lol)

 

This might be approaching the line that Jumbo warned us about in the pinned thread...

Edited December 2, 2022 by Califan007 The Constipated