The Official ES 2021 Free Agency Thread / Tracker Fitzpatrick, Curtis Samuel, William Jackson, LB Mayo, C Larsen WR Humphries, CB D. Roberts, KR D. Carter , LT Charles Leno, S Bobby McCain signed

[JSSkinz]

12 hours ago, jsharrin55 said:

No bump.  It was already factored in (at least an estimate).

Do you see what OTC used as rollover from 2020?  I didn't see it anywhere so I looked at their 2020 season ending number for us and they had us finishing 2020 with $22M so I assumed they used that number.  If that's the case I believe we would subtract $7M from what's showing on OTC since the league released the effective numbers after bonuses ($15M).

 

If these are the numbers we're sitting at $28M in cap space?

 

 

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by JSSkinz

[bakedtater1]

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

I’d be more about letting Scherff walk if we didn’t have so many holes to fill. Adding guard to our need list is an issue. And Scherff is an all-pro. 
 

He is injured more than you’d like and played pretty average against Tampa. But letting an all-pro guard go weakens your interior, a spot that we can’t afford to have weaker. 
 

As long as he doesn’t want well above market, I’d keep him. He wants to be here, too. 

I think re-signing him is a slam dunk easy decision.

As child as it sounds and very unprofessional I have a scherff jersey soooooo i kinda want him to stick around..I love the part that he wants to be here..hell, he said this before ron took over...he's a good ole boy...country farm living..just work with no excuses everything else will fall in line.

[CommDownMan]

3 hours ago, JSSkinz said:

Do you see what OTC used as rollover from 2020?  I didn't see it anywhere so I looked at their 2020 season ending number for us and they had us finishing 2020 with $22M so I assumed they used that number.  If that's the case I believe we would subtract $7M from what's showing on OTC since the league released the effective numbers after bonuses ($15M).

 

If these are the numbers we're sitting at $28M in cap space?

 

 

 

 

So that's a fair question and when you look from Sportrac and OTC and other sources there is always a level of difference and I personally have a hard time digging out some of the more specific differences like this.

 

About a week ago OTC said ~41 mill, so maybe they updated the carryover for 2021 and didn't update 2020 tab value of 22 mill because they didn't know where the difference was related to???  I don't know a good way to answer that, but hopefully we don't need to subtract another 7 and it's simply that they didn't bother updating 2020 tab.

 

edit: One other note, I don't see the calculation that lists each piece of the equation I posted.  So that's part of why finding the answer to your question tough.

 

Showing work (it was required in HS...haha) and also dating the pages for last update would help figure some of these things out.

 

edit 2:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-football-team/yearly/cap/

So again a different value, but does break down dead money and dead cap.  This is 32 mill...so different than both numbers but the carryover matches the newer value we see.

 

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by jsharrin55

[Est.1974]

Cap space does appear in the 32-34mil range after carry over, and assuming 175mil as the 2021 number.

 

Thats looking higher towards 180mil so we are broadly set around 38-40mil in space on that basis. 
 

Would be nice if the 180mil was higher but it really squeezes more teams than us, so maybe we should be happy with that marginal advantage over many teams.

 

Move on from Smith, extend Allen, slight extension for Moses, comfortable 55-60mil to play with.

 

Less Scherff, Darby, both back up QBs, kicker, long snapper, all the trivial stuff sorted  will eat 25mil easily.

 

Need to dump a few fringe players.

 

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by UK SKINS FAN 74

[KDawg]

59 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Cap space does appear in the 32-34mil range after carry over, and assuming 175mil as the 2021 number.

 

Thats looking higher towards 180mil so we are broadly set around 38-40mil in space on that basis. 
 

Would be nice if the 180mil was higher but it really squeezes more teams than us, so maybe we should be happy with that marginal advantage over many teams.

 

Move on from Smith, extend Allen, slight extension for Moses, comfortable 55-60mil to play with.

 

Less Scherff, Darby, both back up QBs, kicker, long snapper, all the trivial stuff sorted  will eat 25mil easily.

 

Need to dump a few fringe players.

 

 

So we can’t sign Watson, Robinson, David, Simmons and Aaron Jones?

[Est.1974]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

So we can’t sign Watson, Robinson, David, Simmons and Aaron Jones?

I think we’d need to cut Wes Martin first.

[Ball Security]

Does Collins have any trade value?  I don’t think he does, but it’d be great to move on without the cap hit.  He may be have to go on the PUP.

[Tedskins 21]

11 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Does Collins have any trade value?  I don’t think he does, but it’d be great to move on without the cap hit.  He may be have to go on the PUP.

That contract is pretty ugly. I also think he has a place on the team still. Lots of packages with both Collins and Curl with a centerfielder behind them (Reaves/Rookie?)

[CommDownMan]

1 hour ago, Ball Security said:

Does Collins have any trade value?  I don’t think he does, but it’d be great to move on without the cap hit.  He may be have to go on the PUP.

 

Our cap hits are 15.2 to 17.2mill.  In a trade the new team would be 12-14mill.  With so many teams seemingly close to the cap level with the lower projections, I don't see him being high on many lists after the injury.  I wouldn't trade for him without seeing his play after injury and I don't see many taking on 12-14 mill per to try their luck.  Achilles tendon injuries can be tricky (remember Junior Gallette tearing the 2nd one the year after the first).  DeAngelo Hall re-tore his surgically repaired tendon as well.  Those are just skins that I remember and I'm sure it's fairly common.

 

If he plays well this year and stays healthy, combined with a cap jump for 2022, the 3 year / 39 mill may look reasonable, but I'd imagine we're looking at 2022 as the earliest he isn't around. 

 

[JoggingGod]

You save at least $8 million with a June 1 cut for Landon. They should heavily entertain that.

Edited January 22, 2021 by JoggingGod

[RWJ]

3 hours ago, Tedskins 21 said:

That contract is pretty ugly. I also think he has a place on the team still. Lots of packages with both Collins and Curl with a centerfielder behind them (Reaves/Rookie?)

After 2021 is most likely the year he's cut.  We save money every year after that.

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, JoggingGod said:

You save at least $8 million with a June 1 cut for Landon. They should heavily entertain that.

Agree. His 2021 salary guaranteed through injury is a pain in the arse.
 

Also, I would be doing Smith as a post June cut to put half of his dead money into 2022.

 

I think the rule is you can only do one post June cut but I’m not sure on that??? So you are limited with that course or action.

[Bacon]

Call me crazy, but I want to see what a 3x pro bowler can add to JDR's defense when fully healthy. I'm looking forward to seeing Collins play next year and agree that he has a place on this team. 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Bacon

[KillBill26]

3 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:I think the rule is you can only do one post June cut but I’m not sure on that??? So you are limited with that course or action.

 

You can do 2 players, and at any time.  So we could apply it to both AS and LC right at the beginning of the off-season.

 

The guidelines for pre-June 1 and post-June 1 cuts are fairly straightforward, but things become a little more complicated when we take into account that teams are allowed to designate up to two players as post-June 1 cuts even if those players are released before June.Jun 1, 2020

 

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2020/06/the-nfls-post-june-1-cuts-explained#:~:text=The guidelines for pre-June,players are released before June.

[Burgold]

15 hours ago, KDawg said:

So we can’t sign Watson, Robinson, David, Simmons and Aaron Jones?

Sure we can. Just got to get them and their agents drunk enough first.

 

Dude! We're talking one million dollars! One million bucks! Cash money. In the clear. That 's five times more than the President of the United States pulls in. We'll even pay the taxes on it. Just sign. Sign right now.

 

Who can turn that down? Would you?

[KillBill26]

2 hours ago, Bacon said:

Call me crazy, but I want to see what a 3x pro bowler can add to JDR's defense when fully healthy. I'm looking forward to seeing Collins play next year and agree that he has a place on this team. 

Agreed.  I hope they retain him at the beginning of the off-season, and see how it unfolds.  Odds are, we will swing and miss with some of our intended targets (like a cooper last year).  If we happen to land the guys that we are targeting and need the cap room, maybe cut LC if it helps the team as a whole.  But looking at defensive snaps %, even before LCs week 7 injury, there were games that both LC and KC were both on the field 30% - 40% of the time.  And that was before KCs emergence.   So id expect that number to be higher.  I'd like to see how that would play out, I'd imagine it would give JDR some different wrinkles in nickel and dime sub packages.

Edited January 22, 2021 by KillBill26

[CommDownMan]

3 hours ago, KillBill26 said:

You can do 2 players, and at any time.  So we could apply it to both AS and LC right at the beginning of the off-season.

 

The guidelines for pre-June 1 and post-June 1 cuts are fairly straightforward, but things become a little more complicated when we take into account that teams are allowed to designate up to two players as post-June 1 cuts even if those players are released before June.Jun 1, 2020

 

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2020/06/the-nfls-post-june-1-cuts-explained#:~:text=The guidelines for pre-June,players are released before June.

 

Either way, I would assume they would at least have Collins in camp to see how he is healing.  This year is fully guaranteed, so I would imagine they will wait until after June 1st to make the move.  So the early designation for June 1st probably wouldn't be needed.  I think he needs to pass a physical first or there has to be an injury settlement which would be different as well.

 

6 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Agree. His 2021 salary guaranteed through injury is a pain in the arse.
 

Also, I would be doing Smith as a post June cut to put half of his dead money into 2022.

 

I think the rule is you can only do one post June cut but I’m not sure on that??? So you are limited with that course or action.

 

That would be 9.6 mill (Collins) and 4.3 mill (Smith) dead money for 2022.  It is rare for teams to carry this much dead before the season starts. 

 

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

 

I still think there is no way Collins isn't here at least 1 more year.  Alex I could see more, but they will at least wait and talk through the decision with him I'd imagine.

Edited January 22, 2021 by jsharrin55

[carex]

I think Smith could be a June 1st cut because next year's cap could be more normal, so shifting half his cut cost to next year might be smart

[Est.1974]

28 minutes ago, carex said:

I think Smith could be a June 1st cut because next year's cap could be more normal, so shifting half his cut cost to next year might be smart

Agree, that’s my thinking especially if the front office have an idea on the cap trend into 2022, it may  jump 10-15% easily. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

51 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Agree, that’s my thinking especially if the front office have an idea on the cap trend into 2022, it may  jump 10-15% easily. 

 

We have enough cap space to do pretty much whatever we want. We have seen how the cap hits can be navigated. Use two recent major deals as a barometer.

 

Chase Roullier: 4 years, $40m ($10m APY)

2021: $4.5m

2022: $10m

2023: $11.3m

2024: $12.7m

 

Landon Collins: 6 years, $84m ($14m APY)

2019: $3.8m

2020: $14.2m

2021: $17.2m

2022: $16.2m

2023: $17.2m

2024: $15.2m

 

Is that Collins deal bad in hindsight? Sure. We'll see how he recovers from the Achilles. He' still just 26, and will be 27 for the 2021 season. He's someone that could quickly turn it around and he's only under contract until he's 30. Anyway, those are obviously not at QB, but you can get a sense of how you could fit multiple top-tier FAs under the "2021 cap constraints" .... especially when you see how very little $$ we have dedicated beyond 2021/2022.

 

For 2021 you have Scherff and Darby as the main contributors not under contract in 2021.

But for 2022 you are looking at Allen, Payne, Ionidis and Settle coming off the books. Obviously you expect extensions for 2-3 of those players, but that will start to chip away at the cap space down the line (of course, you structure them to keep kicking the big $$ into the future years). As the Cowboys showed, you can work the cap. Sure you might have to bite the bullet one or two years, but you can always make it work.

 

There are a few teams that are totally screwed by this year's COVID cap ... but other than that sort of crazy circumstance, you're usually able to work around it.

[Warhead36]

I feel like Darby is this year's Erick Flowers. I don't see him coming back because some team will overpay for him. We can probably find another JAG type vet to fill his shoes. But man imagine if we had a legit cover CB in this D. Look at what Jalen Ramsey does for the Rams...

[JamesMadisonSkins]

 

Here is your current setup for the cap, per OTC. I am cutting Alex Smith just to account for what is most likely to happen. OTC and Spotrac both have our 2020 rollover to be $15m and with a projected cap of $175m (some think it could end up being $190m) our team Cap looks to be around $190m if the cap stays at 175, or 205 if it jumps to 190m. Our cap obligations without Alex Smith on the 2021 roster would currently be $142m.

 

2021: $48.9m

2022: $133m

2023: $177m

2024: $224m

 

For 2022,  you have a couple guys (Scherff, Darby) who we expect to at least be strong candidates to be re-signed this year to account in 2022 and beyond.

 

Then you have guys who have expiring contracts (Allen,Settle, Moses) after 2021 and TBD on 5th year option (Payne). Currently those 4 major contributors need to be added to Scherff and Darby for off-season consideration on extensions/etc. Matt Ionidis has a contract expiring in 2022.

 

Now don't get me wrong. With $133m currently available to be projected in 2022 cap space, all of those players can be fit in, plus our next two rookie pools ... and whoever we sign this off-season. We are in really good shape, but just want to point out that there are some big names needing extensions beyond 2021.

 

This does not account for McLaurin, who is signed through 2022 but will need to be extended next off-season and accounted for in 2023 and beyond.

 

Only major contributors under contract through 2023: Collins, Fuller, Roullier, Young, Gibson

Only players under contract through 2024: Collins, Roullier, Way

12 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I feel like Darby is this year's Erick Flowers. I don't see him coming back because some team will overpay for him. We can probably find another JAG type vet to fill his shoes. But man imagine if we had a legit cover CB in this D. Look at what Jalen Ramsey does for the Rams...

 

Can't see us spending big $$ at CB and it's a fairly weak draft class. But the Panthers did have a history of nailing CBs in the draft. I expect a pick could be designated for CBin the mid-rounds. Norman and Bradberry.

[carex]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

I feel like Darby is this year's Erick Flowers. I don't see him coming back because some team will overpay for him. We can probably find another JAG type vet to fill his shoes. But man imagine if we had a legit cover CB in this D. Look at what Jalen Ramsey does for the Rams...

I don't think another team will overpay for him because this would be his second big free agency contract.  Flowers may have been a bust coming here, but we salvaged him by moving him to a new position.  Darby, played well, got a fat contract, got hurt and played worse then came here and we salvaged him at the same position

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

2020 rollover to be $15m and with a projected cap of $175m (some think it could end up being $190m)

180 is the number being touted now.

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

We have enough cap space to do pretty much whatever we want.

I’d like to think I know a fair bit about the cap, and honestly, we don’t.

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Can't see us spending big $$ at CB and it's a fairly weak draft class. But the Panthers did have a history of nailing CBs in the draft. I expect a pick could be designated for CBin the mid-rounds. Norman and Bradberry.

We really want Darby back apparently. I could see RB being a surprise high investment, draft or FA.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

@UK SKINS FAN 74 within reason, we certainly can. I'm not saying we SHOULD, but we can.

 

$55m in cap space if we cut Alex Smith for 2021. If the cap is $180m. And I think the talent on the market + the limited cap space will force teams to get creative in structuring deals, or prices this year may drive downward a bit.

 

But that $133m and $177m number in 2022 and 2023 is important. That's a massive amount of space to be utilized any different way. Yes, we have to sign Allen, Payne, Scherff to long-term deals that will impact those numbers long-term. But at the time those deals are signed, you'll be able to kick the $$ down the line further since you've got $224m in 2024 and probably an entire suite of cap space available in 2025. Obviously most teams are in that situation, but given who we have on rookie contracts, the picks we have hit on recently, and the real lack of big contracts on the books, we can be pretty creative.

 

Some players are going to have to walk. But you draft and replace those guys over time as you see fit. You will have to find Tim Settles and Cam Kurls in every draft to supplement the roster with cheap rookie scale salaries. But there are probably very few teams who are in the position that WFT is in this year.

 

Does adding a QB at $30m a year impact that? For sure. One of the arguments I would make for signing Mariota if he becomes available and drafting a QB this or next year is that you keep the price "low" at a high-cost position for the next few years, which would in theory let you do even more with that cap space.

 

We are just now getting around to having a "good" roster. We can continue to afford to have a good roster for a long time, and probably even a great one if we keep drafting well and having our mid-tier FA pay off.