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The Covid Vaccine Thread


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On the J & J vaccine issues, why do so few of the articles mention that all 6 people who had issues were female?  I think of this everytime I see a video of a guy who got the vaccine suddenly worrying (like I sawa on the news last night)...They could at least reassure him he doesn't seem to be at any higher risk than he was before he took the vaccine.

 

Additionally, out of over 7 million doses given, only 6 have had issues with only one death.  That is pretty good.  Anyone want to hazard a guess as to how many women have blood clot issues with birth control?  Want to bet it is more than one in 500k?  A quick google search shows between 0.3 and 1 percent get blood clots while on an oral birth control. 

 

This is my problem with the public's understanding or lack there of when it comes to numbers and risk.  We hear there is a risk and imediately try to avoid it.  Nevermind the risk being comparatively very small compared to risks we take all the time.  We need to put these numbers into perspective in a way people can truely understand them (relative to something they think they understand or as a percent change).

 

If I had had the chance to take the J & J vaccine I would have.  It is still far safer than remaining unvaccinated.

Edited by gbear
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1 hour ago, gbear said:

This is my problem with the public's understanding or lack there of when it comes to numbers and risk.  We hear there is a risk and imediately try to avoid it.  Nevermind the risk being comparatively very small compared to risks we take all the time.  We need to put these numbers into perspective in a way people can truely understand them (relative to something they think they understand or as a percent change).

This point was made by many over the past year - and applied to the virus itself. Anytime I made it on this board, I was lumped in with people who were calling the virus a hoax. 

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45 minutes ago, gbear said:

Additionally, out of over 7 million doses given, only 6 have had issues with only one death.  That is pretty good.  Anyone want to hazard a guess as to how many women have blood clot issues with birth control?  Want to bet it is more than one in 500k?  A quick google search shows between 0.3 and 1 percent get blood clots while on an oral birth control. 

 

I look at the "risk vs reward" slightly differently.  But it's similar.  

 

I'm going to pull some numbers from the initial clinical trial for the Moderna vaccine.  Simply bacause that's the one I looked up first, when this thing started.  Numbers from the NEJM article summarizing the clinical trials.  

 

The trials (which are still officially ongoing, I believe.  The thing I've read is that the official clinical trial is to study 2 years.) used 30K people, half of whom got a placebo, and half got the vaccine.  The data presented in the article covers July-January, so I'm going to call it 6 months.  

 

Results for 6 months, for the placebo group and the vaccine group, were:  

 

Became infected with symptomatic Covid 185  11
Serious infection                       30   0
Deaths                                   1   0

 

Now granted, I'm taking the efficacy of Moderna, and the side effects of J&J.  Not really apples and apples.  But I'm discussing the risks/rewards of "vaccinated" vs "not vaccinated".  Bot of one particular vaccine.  Since I'm not seeing a lot of people saying "I won;t take that J&J vaccine, but I'll take the others".  I'm only seeing people who want to take any vaccine, vs people refusing to take any of them.  

 

The J&J vaccine, based on the data we've got so far (preliminary results, not peer reviewed,  your mileage my vary) says that 1 person out of a million develops these blood clots.  So let's take the above numbers, and adjust them to assume each group was a million people, instead of 15K.  Now we get:  

 

Became infected with symptomatic Covid 12,334  733
Serious infection                       2,000   33*
Deaths                                     67    0

* I treated the "0" as if it was really "1/2, rounded down to 0"

 

So the way I look at it is:  

 

OK, so let's assume that for every 1 million people we vaccinate, 1 of them will develop a blood clotting problem.  (It's preliminary data.  But it's the best data we've got.)  

 

You know what else will happen, if we vaccinate 1 million people?  12 thousand of them won't get Covid.  And 67 of them won't die in the next six months.  

 

Gee, this risk vs reward calculation is really tough, isn't it?  I think we should pretend that both sides have a legitimate argument, hmmm?  

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It's less of an issue in the US because we have commitment from Pfizer and Moderna to supply us with enough doses to vaccinate everyone with those shots.  It shouldn't be hard to sell the public that J&J is better than no vaccine, but I would imagine it would be a much harder sell to have them choose J&J over the mRNA ones unless they determine that the blood clots were caused by something else or limited to certain demographic only.

 

In many parts of the world that had these adenovirus vaccines (astrazeneca, J&J) playing a big role in their vaccination strategy, it's a huge issue.  They are dealing with people clamoring for mRNA vaccines that may not be coming for a while.  Those governments have a challenge on their hands to convince the public.

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9 minutes ago, bearrock said:

It's less of an issue in the US because we have commitment from Pfizer and Moderna to supply us with enough doses to vaccinate everyone with those shots.  It shouldn't be hard to sell the public that J&J is better than no vaccine, but I would imagine it would be a much harder sell to have them choose J&J over the mRNA ones unless they determine that the blood clots were caused by something else or limited to certain demographic only.

 

In many parts of the world that had these adenovirus vaccines (astrazeneca, J&J) playing a big role in their vaccination strategy, it's a huge issue.  They are dealing with people clamoring for mRNA vaccines that may not be coming for a while.  Those governments have a challenge on their hands to convince the public.

 

Yeah, I could see that maybe this side effect might be a valid argument for a position of "Let's stick with the other two vaccines".  

 

It's a completely invalid attempt at a cover story, to try to argue for no vaccination at all.  

 

- - - 

 

And frankly?  If J&J were the only vaccine option?  I'd have no trouble at all shoving that vaccine at every person in the country.  Including making it mandatory.  

 

And I can also see an argument that J&J might be the best vaccine option, for certain populations.  For example, let's say homeless people, for whom it's tough to be sure that they'll come back for the second shot?  

 

Maybe when you weigh the side effect, against "only one shot", "only one shot" wins?  

 

How about field clinics, in third world countries.  Not because "those folks don't deserve the Good Stuff".  But because the lack of a second shot legitimately makes this vaccine the best option for them?

 

Edited by Larry
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If the risk of the JNJ vaccine regarding problematic blood clots is approximately 1/1,000,000; then while that is not zero (nothing is completely without any risk) it is much safer re: thromboembolism than cigarrettes, oral contraceptive pills, and cross country flights.  COVID infections also dramatically increase risk for blood clots (the virus causes lots of endothelial damage, which is one of the really devastating parts of C19), so the vaccine is absolutely, without any doubt, better by far than going unvaccinated.  

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My wife's hairdresser yesterday:

 

Her - Do you know why they put the lot number on your vaccine card?

Wife - To track which patient received which lot.

Her - No, to track who received the placebo. They're still testing it which is why I'm not getting it. I have all sorts of printouts here...blah...blah...blah

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46 minutes ago, Larry said:

How about field clinics, in third world countries.  Not because "those folks don't deserve the Good Stuff".  But because the lack of a second shot legitimately makes this vaccine the best option for them?

Perhaps even more important that single shot versus two shots is the much more manageable storage requirements for J&J.

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I think there is an issue with public health messaging when they say "it's safe and effective". We constantly try to simplify things for people as if that is the right way to go, and it ALWAYS backfires. If someone hears a million times, safe and effective, they want to know  ... HOW safe and HOW effective.

 

Safe when it comes to any sort of therapeutic or medicine, even natural supplements, will never mean there is a 0.0% chance of a bad reaction in someone. Biology is full of exceptions and people need to understand a medicine can be exceedingly safe and that doesn't mean there is literally no risk. And now despite the explanations of what the efficacy numbers mean we have people like "wait, the vaccine doesn't mean I can't get it, what's the point".

 

This has to be a big takeaway after the pandemic, how do we fix these things.

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33 minutes ago, EmirOfShmo said:

My wife's hairdresser yesterday:

 

Her - Do you know why they put the lot number on your vaccine card?

Wife - To track which patient received which lot.

Her - No, to track who received the placebo. They're still testing it which is why I'm not getting it. I have all sorts of printouts here...blah...blah...blah

 

 

This will sound very classist of me, but who the **** takes medical advice (or any advice not related to hair) from a hairdresser?

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4 minutes ago, Sticksboi05 said:

I think there is an issue with public health messaging when they say "it's safe and effective". We constantly try to simplify things for people as if that is the right way to go, and it ALWAYS backfires. If someone hears a million times, safe and effective, they want to know  ... HOW safe and HOW effective.

 

To be clear, in the case of the J&J vaccine, 7 million doses have been administered.  There have been 6 cases of blood clot reactions.

 

If one in a million is too risky for some people, they can take heart.  The risk is LESS than one in a million.

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1 minute ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

 

This will sound very classist of me, but who the **** takes medical advice (or any advice not related to hair) from a hairdresser?

LOL...of course...but that's what people are thinking. 

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Just now, Dan T. said:

 

To be clear, in the case of the J&J vaccine, 7 million doses have been administered.  There have been 6 cases of blood clot reactions.

 

If one in a million is too risky for some people, they can take heart.  The risk is LESS than one in a million.

 

My wife got the J&J shot like a month ago.  She is a worrier.  Like, every time our first kid had the sniffles she would Google until she was convinced it was some deadly chimeric disease.  When I heard the news about J&J I went to talk to her, starting with "Promise you won't freak out" and even she was like, "oh the J&J thing?  Not worried about it."

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2 minutes ago, Dan T. said:

 

To be clear, in the case of the J&J vaccine, 7 million doses have been administered.  There have been 6 cases of blood clot reactions.

 

If one in a million is too risky for some people, they can take heart.  The risk is LESS than one in a million.

 

I'm on your side - I've already had to explain to many friends that they have a better chance of being struck by lightning.

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38 minutes ago, Dan T. said:

 

To be clear, in the case of the J&J vaccine, 7 million doses have been administered.  There have been 6 cases of blood clot reactions.

 

If one in a million is too risky for some people, they can take heart.  The risk is LESS than one in a million.

 

Pretty sure that odds of a (Covid-caused) blood clot if you don't get the vaccine, are bigger than 1/million.  

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2 hours ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

This point was made by many over the past year - and applied to the virus itself. Anytime I made it on this board, I was lumped in with people who were calling the virus a hoax. 

 

That's because most who tried making this same point about COVID 1) completely ignored the true dangers of not taking extreme measures at the start of the pandemic, and 2) severely downplayed the science at the foundation of things like wearing masks and social distancing. Not saying you did either of these things, but a helluva lot did.

 

 

1 hour ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I tried to schedule the second dose of moderna for later this month and it shows the dates they are doing vaccines for the end of the month, but no appointments are available.  I’m hoping it’s just too soon to register...

 

When I got my first shot of Pfizer, the automatically scheduled the date and time for my 2nd shot right there on the spot, I didn't have to do anything.

Edited by Califan007
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Unfortunately I don't think arguments of "You only have a x in y chance of getting this serious symptom from the vaccine" are going to be persuasive. These are probably the same people who said stuff like "You have a super high chance of surviving Covid-19, so what's the big deal?" when it came to why they didn't want to wear masks. So I don't think they actually care about the statistics, it's all just ideology and partisanship. If the statistics doesn't follow their ideology, they'll dismiss it; if it does, they'll embrace it.

Edited by mistertim
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The Rural Pandemic Isn’t Ending

 

Americans will soon begin to fall back into the rhythms of pre-pandemic life—attending sunny summer weddings, squishing into booths at chain restaurants, laughing together at movies on the big screen—and it will feel like a victory over the coronavirus. But the virus might not actually be gone. In pockets of the country, vaccination rates could stay low, creating little islands where the coronavirus survives and thrives—sickening and killing people for months after the pandemic has ebbed elsewhere. In a worst-case scenario, the virus could mutate, becoming a highly transmissible and much more lethal version of itself. Eventually, the new variant could leak from these islands and spread into the broader population, posing a threat to already-vaccinated people.

 

This is the future that keeps some public-health experts awake at night. Right now America is in the simplest stage of its vaccination campaign: getting shots to people who want them. But many Americans are still reluctant to get a vaccine—especially those living in rural areas, who tend to be politically conservative and are among the most fervently opposed to inoculation. Public-health leaders will soon have to refocus their efforts toward the next and more difficult stage of the campaign: persuasion. Over the next few months, “the number of willing individuals to get vaccinated will be depleted,” says Timothy Callaghan, a rural-health researcher and professor at Texas A&M University. “Then the work begins.”

 

Click on the link for the full article

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