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Next Day Thread (Same Day Edition): WFT vs. Dallas I

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Some notes from FootballOutsiders about our current DVOA and what it usually means.





Unlike Seattle and other offense-first teams, Washington does turn out to be historically imbalanced right now. Only seven teams since 1999 have a game offense rating lower than this year's Washington Football Team. Three of those teams are recent, including last year's Pittsburgh Steelers and both Arizona and Buffalo from 2018.


We saw most of the offense-first teams made the playoffs, so what about these defense-first teams? Turns out they are mostly awful. Last year's Steelers (8-8) are the only one of the teams with game offense rating of -40% or lower to go better than 6-10. It's an interesting mix: most of these defense-first teams were bad but the few that were really good overall tended to win the Super Bowl. There are 34 teams from 1999 to 2019 with a game offense index of -30% or lower. Only eight of those 34 teams made it to the postseason. Yet half of those teams that made the playoffs went on to win the Super Bowl: 2000 Ravens, 2002 Buccaneers, 2008 Steelers, and 2015 Broncos. All four of those teams were either No. 1 in defense or close to it. The moral of the story may be that if you put together a team built mostly around defense, that defense better be really, really good.


Ours clearly isn't "really, really good".  Check out the Rams game where we just got exploited endlessly via our LB's and S's errors in coverage.  Maybe Kamren Curl, Everett, and Holcomb can fix that, but I find that unlikely.


So besides the 2019 Steelers, the only path forward for a decent record is if the offense improves.  Now some of the offensive DVOA woes come from a 5 turnover game against the Browns.  Our sack rates are still not good.  But there is a difference according to DVOA from Haskins to Allen.  The sample size is still too small for Allen. 


Offensive DVOA:

Overall Passing is -25.9%

Haskins is -29.6%

Allen is -15.6%


Still not good by any means, but better.  So there's a chance the offense as a whole plays well enough as the season goes along for our Defense to win us some close games.

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