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Looking back at Kyle Smith's drafts


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Redskins 2017 draft pick
Jonathan Allen. Pick: Round 1, 17th overall. 
Average value for pick. Decent starter, but not a game changer.
Ryan Anderson Pick: Round 2, 49th overall. This one for me was a head-scratcher straight from the get-go. Disappointing
Fabian Moreau Pick: Round 3, 81st overall. Looks like a solid pick.
  •  4. Samaje Perine. Ugh. Bust.
  • 5. Montae Nicholson. Had potential, but pea-sized brain. Bust
  • 6. Jeremy Sprinkle. Not a world beater, but ok value for the 6th round
  •  7. Chase Roullier. Excellent value pick
  • 7 Robert Davis. Not all 7th rounders make a roster

 

2018

Round 1 DaRon Payne Good value - If it comes down to extending him or Allen, Payne gets my vote. Ioan man is still the best when healthy.

Round 2, No. 59 overall: Derrius Guice, RB, LSU. We were all excited about this pick, but super bust.

Round 3, No. 74 overall: Geron Christian, OT, Louisville. Meh...has been serviceable this year.

Round 4, No. 109 overall: Troy Apke, S, Penn State. Ugh. Can't seem to put it all together.

Round 5 Tim Settle DT Solid rotational player, excellent value pick.

Round 6, No. 197 overall: Shaun Dion Hamilton, LB, Alabama. Decent value for 6th round.

Round 7, No. 241 overall: Greg Stroman, CB, Virginia Tech. About what you expect for 7th round.

 

2019

ROUND 1, PICK 15 (15th overall):

Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State

Can't blame Kyle for this one IF it's true that this was Brucifer and El Dano's pick. If we had taken Sweat here and kept the two second rounders we traded for him, we might have someone like Elgton Jenkins at LG.  Looking like a bust

ROUND 1, PICK 26 (26th overall):

Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State

Jury's still out, but looks like a decent pick

ROUND 3, PICK 12 (76th overall):

Terry McLaurin, WR, Ohio State Best value pick in years!!! And best WR we have drafted in decades.

ROUND 4, PICK 10 (112th overall):

Bryce Love, RB, Stanford

Gamble...still unknown

ROUND 4, PICK 29 (131st overall):

Wes Martin, G, Indiana

Looks bad...real bad.

ROUND 5, PICK 15 (153rd overall):

Ross Pierschbacher, C, Alabama

Bust

ROUND 5, PICK 35 (173rd overall):

Cole Holcomb, LB, North Carolina

Decent value for 5th round.

ROUND 6, PICK 34 (206th overall):

Kelvin Harmon, WR, North Carolina State

Still have high hopes for him.

ROUND 7, PICK 13 (227th overall):

Jimmy Moreland, DB, James Madison

Decent value for 7th

ROUND 7, PICK 39 (253rd overall):

Jordan Brailford, EDGE, Oklahoma State

Is he on PS?

 

Too soon for 2020.

Edited by Riggo-toni
Left un-Settled...
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I think I'm souring on Kyle. I think he has some potential if he has consistency in coaching staffs, but with the turnover from Gruden to Call to Ron means that we have different type of players that we're looking for. The injury bug guys have been more to the bust side. Allen wasn't really that and looking back I was hype about this pick and can't fault him for it. Moreau has looked good in small spaces but also has a highlight reel of bad plays. Love has given us nothing and is right now a lower round Malcolm Kelly. 

But then there are the knuckleheads. We see that with Guice and Moreau and potentially Haskins. Those are valuable picks. 

 

Looking at it I have to question where he is really good? 

QB - only picked Haskins and we hear that wasn't his pick
RB - Guice, Perine are both gone. Perine never excited me, but I think that was partially him not fitting Gruden's system. 
WR - This looks like the best spot, with TMac, Harmon and some other guys. 
OL - This looks horrible right now but I wonder if its a difference in the systems. I think Call's system was more pound the ball instead of having guys on their heels like Turners. A new system may mean that these new guys aren't fit for it. Doesn't mean they're bad, just not a fit. 
TE - has only really picked Sprinkle. He's decent for where he was picked but I never hear about him being a good special teamer and thats what I look for a lot from low round picks

 

DL - he has excelled here but they have been all first round picks. 
LB - This is where I thought he was doing the best but where are these guys? SDH? JHC? Holcomb? Anderson? It could be the change in systems (particularly to a 43), but I wonder if any of these guys are any good. 
CB - We have Stroman, Moreau and Moreland. All are decent values but he hasn't invested heavily at the position and the highest pick can't beat out the lowest pick. 
S - We have drafted players here but they seem to be just players. Even Curl sounds like a nice story but its reminding me more of Chris Horton (and his one good game) than a real steal at the position. Apke sucks. 

 

But I think we need to consider UDFAs as well. We have guys like Sims, Simms, Hentges, Wright, ?Baugh?, ?Hemmingway?, ?Brantley?. I'm probably forgetting some people. Who were the guys (LBs) who came in late last year against Carolina to win the game for us? 

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I think you have to lump them into Starters, Contributors, Rarely Plays, and Off The Team/out of the league...and then compare it to the league average as well as compare it to teams that we tend to believe are the best drafting organizations to really get a feel as to where Kyle Smith's tenure here lays. Is he someone who excels at finding contributors but not necessarily starters? Are a large percentage of his picks no longer on the team or out of the league? Is he good at finding players that fit the coach's scheme? Etc, etc...

 

I remember Bethard absolutely sucking at high round picks for a period of time towards the end of his time here...just year after year of crappy picks. But he found damn near HOF players in like round 47 lol. He was also fantastic at finding players who fit Gibbs' scheme even if they were not necessarily great players individually. Of course it helps to have a HOF coach and top-notch coordinators and assistants in charge of those players you pick as well.

 

 

Edited by Califan007
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Jonathan Allen. Pick: Round 1, 17th overall. 
Grade:  B+
Ryan Anderson Pick: Round 2, 49th overall. 
Grade:  C-
Fabian Moreau Pick: Round 3, 81st overall. 
Grade:  B-
 4. Samaje Perine. 

Grade: D
5. Montae Nicholson. 

Grade: A-

6. Jeremy Sprinkle. 

Grade: C+

 7. Chase Roullier. 

Grade:  A

7.  Robert Davis. 

Grade:  D

 

2018

Round 1 DaRon Payne

Grade:  B+

Round 2, No. 59 overall: Derrius Guice

Grade:  B

Round 3, No. 74 overall: Geron Christian

Grade: B-

Round 4, No. 109 overall: Troy Apke

Grade: C+

Round 6, No. 197 overall: Shaun Dion Hamilton

Grade:  B+

Round 7, No. 241 overall: Greg Stroman, CB, Virginia Tech. 

Grade:  B-

 

2019

ROUND 1, PICK 15 (15th overall):

Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State

Grade:  C-

ROUND 1, PICK 26 (26th overall):

Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State

Grade:  A-

ROUND 3, PICK 12 (76th overall):

Terry McLaurin, WR, Ohio State 

Grade:  A+

ROUND 4, PICK 10 (112th overall):

Bryce Love, RB, Stanford

Grade: C

ROUND 4, PICK 29 (131st overall):

Wes Martin, G, Indiana

Grade: C+

ROUND 5, PICK 15 (153rd overall):

Ross Pierschbacher, C, Alabama

Grade:  D+

ROUND 5, PICK 35 (173rd overall):

Cole Holcomb, LB, North Carolina

Grade:  B+

ROUND 6, PICK 34 (206th overall):

Kelvin Harmon, WR, North Carolina State

Grade:  A-

ROUND 7, PICK 13 (227th overall):

Jimmy Moreland, DB, James Madison

Grade:  B+

ROUND 7, PICK 39 (253rd overall):

Jordan Brailford, EDGE, Oklahoma State

Grade:  C-

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The big issue appears to be the 2nd round. That's the best value of the draft and we have completely whiffed there. 1st round seems to be fine(minus Haskins but that appears to be a Snyder pick)and we've gotten solid contributions from the 3rd round and on picks(most teams are probably about the same success rate as us if not worse). But we have got to nail our 2nd round picks. I think in recent memory our only real good 2nd round pick was Preston Smith and that was all the way back in 2015.

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8 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

The big issue appears to be the 2nd round. That's the best value of the draft and we have completely whiffed there. 1st round seems to be fine(minus Haskins but that appears to be a Snyder pick)and we've gotten solid contributions from the 3rd round and on picks(most teams are probably about the same success rate as us if not worse). But we have got to nail our 2nd round picks. I think in recent memory our only real good 2nd round pick was Preston Smith and that was all the way back in 2015.

 

I somewhat discount injuries and off the field issues unless they were apparent.  Guice did have an injury but I don't think he had a track record of off the field issues.   To me Guice wasn't necessarily a bad value for the second round just because he didn't work because he may have been good enough to justify the second round pick.  Obviously it didn't work out.  I gave that pick a B based on good I think Guice was, not the fact that it didn't work.  Every so often a good pick won't work out.

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The fact these drafts look as decent as they do despite the back-stabbing, owner interference, politics, instability, power struggles, scheme changes, etc. is a testament to the fact that the picks have been pretty good. Stable, good coaching staffs bring out the best in draft picks it doesn’t just magically all come together with individual HOF talents in every round.
 

The whole machine works together to evaluate, weigh, draft, develop, and later retain or relinquish said talent. Stability is our best bet to see consistent results from our draft picks, even if there are naturally going to be whiffs that bust entirely and studs who emerge on their own. Once a steady base of talent is built up, depth improves, and every rookie doesn’t have to be the instant savior at their position no matter the round they’re taken in, suddenly you start to “hit” more. Because the reality is that studies have been done and even the universally acknowledged and recognized BEST damn GM’s in the entire league are very hit or miss over long sample sizes with long hot and cold streaks. The best drafting teams are the ones with long-term stability that can plug guys into an efficient, well-oiled machine as just another cog—with the machine’s elegant design making things easier on each individual cog while each individual cog’s unique profile is integrated into a constantly growing and adapting blueprint. 
 

That’s not to say that having a good scouting department, head talent evaluator, and executive decision maker aren’t important—of course they are. But until we see Rivera at the head of this organization for long enough to get things how he wants them, with a couple offseasons to settle in and shape the roster and staff, you won’t know how good or bad Kyle Smith can be at this (a lot more goes into this than just one guy, btw, as much as we like to glorify one “talent guy” the best FO’s are full of them). Stability will help develop guys big time, and a better roster to plug into with less daunting roles needing to be filled right off the bat will help too, giving guys time to learn the system and ramp up without heavy expectations. You create and develop that pipeline of incoming talent and the busts don’t hurt as much when they happen. A winning culture and expectation is even better on top of all that, of course. That’s the fertilizer that helps grow the crops that the well-oiled machine has tilled the land for, if I’m gonna take this comparison to its overdone end-point. 
 

(Very pertinent to this discussion is the whole looming “having a GM with final decision making power for long term stability and forethought is >>> having the HC in charge” issue of course but there’s nothing we can do about that, period, so best to discuss the reality we live in—where Rivera wields all the power but we hope has a respectful and functional symbiotic relationship with Kyle Smith—rather than the one we wish we were in with a traditional FO structure in place.)

Edited by ConnSKINS26
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So this goes back to my overall philosophy of GMs getting 9 years, potentially with at most 3 different head coaches (each getting at least 3 years). One of the things about that is that the GM would have a vision of the team he's building and so he can hire coaches that have a similar vision. Now if the coach becomes a Parcells or a guy who has this great standing and outgrows the GM then you grow whith that coach and potentially allow for a shift in philosophy like Baltimore did in going from Flacco to Jackson. But we're a team that's (like it or not) owner run. And I don't mean that from the standpoint where the owner makes every decision. I mean that his presence is there enough that it influences the business decisions. On one angle there's the Haskins type involvement, but there's also the RG3 or Clinton Portis level involvement where he falls in love with players and treats them differently. Even if that "differently" is just allowing them access to him, but it creates a team of haves and have nots. 

 

But I said that its hard to judge Kyle because he's not a GM and he has never had final say. So with Gruden he went for one style of player. And even with Gruden, he was late in Gruden's term so how much was Gruden into developing players vs getting immediate returns? How does that compare to Ron and his (maybe) philosophy of growth? Neither guy is big on running the ball so how does that impact the running backs that Kyle is recruiting? For example, are we passing on AP style backs in hope of finding a Joe Mixon type? Similarly, we've heard about how low Kyle had Haskins rated, but who did he have rated high at QB that year? Would our draft look different had we gotten Minshew? 

 

What about other positions? From last year there aren't really any more guys we had an opportunity to draft that are showing up as steals. But from 2 years ago, we took Guice but passed on DJ Chark (WR Jac 1400 yards), passed on Rpyce Freeman (RB Den 1000 yards), Fred Warner (OLB SF), Michael Gallup (WR 1900 DAL yards). Or 2 years ago? The obvious one is Alvin Kamara, where'd he have him rated? Eddie Jackson - picked right before we picked Perine, but we could have had him instead of Moreau. George Kittle? We weren't in the TE position we are now but we knew of Reed's injury problems and decided to go with Davis instead of going young. These are the type of picks that can turn a franchise around. Instead we have picked a lot of good guys but they're not dominant players you build around. This is similar to the times Bruce (Mike) passed on guys like Lawrence for Murphy or Watt for Kerrigan. 

 

What I'm seeing is about the same consistency that we saw from Bruce's drafts. Definitely better than Vinny's but nothing to brag about. But I would like to see him stay in this role for the simple fact that he and Ron can learn each other's style and which type of players they can work with. If attitude is a problem, then it can be moved higher on the checklist for scouting. JDR said he values speed (but kept Holcomb on the bench) so hopefully that means Kyle can rank that higher in his evaluations. Otherwise I think its a lot of the luck of the draw but I would like 

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Those drafts combine head scratching picks and picks that capitalise on injury/off field issues to create perceived value. I’ll ignore the Haskins pick because I can’t be arsed talking QB :ols:

 

Jon Allen, Moreau both dropped due to injury or health concerns. As did Montez and Love. Guice and Charles had red flags for other issues. 
 

Anderson, Christian, Apke. All head scratcher picks at the time. No better now really.

 

Payne was one of the few very safe picks in the early rounds. Terry Mc has the potential to be one of our best picks ever IMO.....

 

Maybe in 2021 we need a safer draft. Especially through rounds 1-4. Take the blue chipper when we pick top 5, then accumulate solid talent in rounds 2-4.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

 

 

Maybe in 2021 we need a safer draft. Especially through rounds 1-4. Take the blue chipper when we pick top 5, then accumulate solid talent in rounds 2-4.

 

 

 

I mean, shouldn't this be the goal every year? Have we just been reaching on players that have round values far lower than where we pick?

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Who knows how much of these drafts have been Kyle Smith driven picks?  But as a team, we're not maximizing the development of the good players we draft and we're still missing too many opportunities to make better, more obvious value picks.  That's a big part of how you end up with one of the worst teams in the NFL in consecutive years.  We're also not making good trades, and only made one good FA acquisition by getting back a guy we sent away in a bad trade.

 

The biggest issues with Kyle Smith's teambuilding are

A.) He doesn't have GM power, Ron does.  He can't enforce any plan or philosophy he makes.

B.) He doesn't seem to have a coherent plan at QB.  Everyone says he didn't want to draft Dwayne Haskins and excuses him of having any role in the failure of that pick and the player's development.  Well then, what was his plan at quarterback in the 2019 off-season?  Case Keenum and Colt McCoy?  That's a terrible plan and would amount to teambuilding malpractice.  Are people excusing him for the Kyle Allen acquisition?  What if he doesn't bring in another credible prospect or vet option next spring?  The way we are handling QB has been a terrible problem that has run the team into the gutter and cast doubt on the future of the build.

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Hard to say any of us could have a clue what the alternate plan at QB would have been in either of the last two offseasons, because Snyder really wanted Haskins and made that happen. It’s useless to even speculate what Kyle’s ideal plan at QB may have been in either of the past two off-seasons, there’s no way to know. I really would have a hard time dinging  him for “not having a coherent plan at QB” when what happened, happened. Going forward, the QB plan and execution absolutely falls at the feet of the Rivera/Smith duo, obviously. 

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2 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Hard to say any of us could have a clue what the alternate plan at QB would have been in either of the last two offseasons, because Snyder really wanted Haskins and made that happen. It’s useless to even speculate what Kyle’s ideal plan at QB may have been in either of the past two off-seasons, there’s no way to know. I really would have a hard time dinging  him for “not having a coherent plan at QB” when what happened, happened. Going forward, the QB plan and execution absolutely falls at the feet of the Rivera/Smith duo, obviously. 

 

They've already made a plan since Haskins was picked though.  They abandoned Haskins for Kyle Allen.

 

Excusing Kyle Smith for drafting Haskins on the reasoning that it was Allen/Snyder's plan by saying " well, Kyle Smith had a later grade on Haskins" ergo he wouldn't have picked him, isn't reassuring or satisfactory to me.  For one thing, I utterly disagree with an evaluation that Haskins wasn't a first rounder.  But mainly, it suggests that we would have been fine not making any change at QB in 2019 and just rolling with Keenum/McCoy.  That is not an argument for Kyle Smith's competence.  We desperately needed a QB in 2019.  If you go into a season with Keenum/McCoy as your QBs, then that means you are committing to not competing that year, and that is unacceptable.  You have to have a credible plan at QB every single season.

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Well, it's hard to judge him because he's not the one making the picks.  I mean, we dont know exactly how it works, but presumably, he did all the legwork and put together his evaluations and helped put together the draft board, but he ultimately wasn't the one making the picks.  We always used to hear, "This was a Bruce pick" or "This was a Jay pick", or in some cases it being a Snyder pick.  The phrase "This was a Kyle Smith pick" was not as common.

 

It doesn't matter how sound the board is, only matters what the pick is.  And if you're telling me the best drafters didnt have a board full of duds they just didn't pick through luck of the draw, then I've got a bridge to sell you.

Edited by justice98
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I don't think people get how the league in general drafts. For just about any team, if you get even 2-3 solid starters out of a draft, that's huge. Some of you guys are talkin like there are teams out there that are drafting entire All Pro teams every year. If your 7th round pick even lasts more than like 2 years thats an A pick.

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13 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

The big issue appears to be the 2nd round. That's the best value of the draft and we have completely whiffed there. 1st round seems to be fine(minus Haskins but that appears to be a Snyder pick)and we've gotten solid contributions from the 3rd round and on picks(most teams are probably about the same success rate as us if not worse). But we have got to nail our 2nd round picks. I think in recent memory our only real good 2nd round pick was Preston Smith and that was all the way back in 2015.

I agree. We’re always looking for the Home run pick in the second instead of the double or just the single. We’re always grabbing guys with incredible value instead of asking why these guys dropped where they did. Sometimes going the safe route isn’t a bad thing.

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1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

But mainly, it suggests that we would have been fine not making any change at QB in 2019 and just rolling with Keenum/McCoy. 


I don’t really see how it suggests that at all, which is why I said there’s no way for us to know what Kyle’s preferred plan at QB would have been. For all we know he’d have taken Sweat with our 1st and then traded back into the end of the 1st for Lock for that 5th year option, or just sat and taken him with our natural 2nd, or done something else entirely. Who knows. There’s no way to know. 

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4 hours ago, justice98 said:

Well, it's hard to judge him because he's not the one making the picks.  I mean, we dont know exactly how it works, but presumably, he did all the legwork and put together his evaluations and helped put together the draft board, but he ultimately wasn't the one making the picks.  We always used to hear, "This was a Bruce pick" or "This was a Jay pick", or in some cases it being a Snyder pick.  The phrase "This was a Kyle Smith pick" was not as common.

 

 

This is what I'm thinking. It's difficult to assess Kyle Smith as I'm not clear what exact role he played (and his role has changed over the years listed)

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